Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 30, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Live Longshot

CAMPOGIOVANNI (#8, 6-1): He earned a lifetime best Beyer for a maiden win over 11 rivals two starts ago, followed by a slight regression first time in allowance company; rebound threat in wide-open event. --Dave Litfin

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Race 5

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Race 6

Demoiselle Stakes

Demoiselle got only six, and figures to have a heavy favorite at post time in Pletcher’s STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#6, 8-5). She’s pretty talented and comes here directly off of a 10+ length win in the Grade 3 Tempted going a flat mile, but that 78 figure assigned has to make you think that her competition was lacking, and she’s no cinch to handle the extra distance here. Horse to beat? Yes. Impossible mountain for these to climb? No.

One of Pletcher’s other entrants (he has half the field) is the maiden GOT LUCKY (#1, 5-2), and while she can certainly be given a chance to improve significantly off of her debut, she was a bit of a suck up 2nd in there after a couple of horses who were doing the racing up front, including PENWITH (#3, 3-1), who I will take to post a mild upset. I was impressed with the race Penwith ran that day as she made all the pace while chased by U.S.S O’Brien, the 3/2 favorite, and gamely kept her at bay. She was a bit late to change leads in the stretch, but continued on once she did, and she has the pedigree to handle additional distance with no problem. - Mike Beer

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Race 7

Comely Stakes

WEDDING TOAST (#3, 8-5) has flashed plenty of potential at the outset, and enters her biggest test to date with three straight convincing wins in tow, including last pair in which she handled several of these with ease; the nine-furlong distance figures to play more to her advantage than some of the others based on her maiden win, as it is rare to see a second time starter get her final 3/8ths in 36 seconds flat over that trip on dirt.

Main danger to her figures to be MY HAPPY FACE (#4, 7-2), who has the requisite ability, but may be better going shorter. She ran fine in the Cotillion last time while not good enough, and her only prior try at this distance was a second best performance in the CCA Oaks at Saratoga, but racing against Princess of Sylmar in there may have had more to do with the defeat than the distance did.

For a longshot include, I would look to FLASH FORWARD (#1, 20-1), who has run well over this distance a couple of times and has a good post to pull a ground saving trip. - Mike Beer

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Race 8

Cigar Mile

Impressive cast assembled for Cigar Mile, including a couple of Breeders’ Cup winners a few weeks ago. Of those two, GOLDENCENTS (#8, 7-2) was the more impressive performance (at least in my opinion) as, although he raced on the Friday card which saw every race being run and won over a front-end conveyor belt, he still went an almost unbelievably quick pace while in a duel, and still never gave them a chance. He has displayed this kind of talent from day one, and the flat mile feels like his best game.

I’ll be the first to admit that the classy GROUPIE DOLL (#4, 3-1) made a fool out of me in the Filly & Mare Sprint, as I was convinced that she just wasn’t the same this year and paid the price. She’s clearly a danger in here, but I’ve been against her all year, and with the story that follows her into her final career race she figures to be something of an underlay, so she will beat me again.

Instead, along with Goldencents, I will use FLAT OUT (#9, 6-1) who has been something of a forgotten horse following his failed bid for three straight Jockey Club Gold Cups, but he’s capable over the one-turn mile and will be running late. VERRAZANO (#10, 8-1) is a much tougher call in what will now be his career finale (he was initially going to retire after the BC Dirt Mile). The ability is there, but he’s a little dressed up by blowout wins over suspect competition, and has yet to overcome any adversity at all on the racetrack. I could use him at the right price, which would be the morning line, or above. - Mike Beer

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Race 9

Remsen

Remsen goes through HONOR CODE (#4, 9-5), who has been just about everyone’s 2014 Derby horse since making up an acre of ground in eye-catching debut, and he backed that race up every well in late-running runnerup finish in the Grade 1 Champagne. I’d feel better about him if he’d begin showing at least some positional speed at some point, but more distance figures to suit him, and this field just did not come up that deep.

I’m still not sure how I feel about the Nashua as a race, and that complicates things for me in evaluating this race as both the 1st and 3rd place finishers from that race are here, and they appear to be the main threats to Honor Code. CAIRO PRINCE (#9, 2-1) is 2-for-2 to start, and he was a convincing winner of that Nashua after staying up close on the outside of a pace that completely fell apart at the top of the stretch. I’m still not sure if I think he’s a potential top runner in this crop, or if he simply looked good beating a bad field last time. I guess I’ll find out for sure on Saturday.

Nashua 3rd finisher NOBLE MOON (#1, 6-1) was last early and made a wide run to be a no threat 3rd, but I guess ran well enough (though the race did fall apart at the top of the stretch); his debut was also a solid performance, though it should be pointed out that he was just rolling along on a gold rail that day. Again, I guess I’ll find out more on Saturday, but I’m inclined to take a negative position on the Nashua horses based on expected price.

The other horse for me will be WICKED STRONG (#7, 8-1) who I thought showed marked improvement in his one-mile maiden win after a green debut and will be a price in here. - Mike Beer

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Race 10

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