Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 3, 2013

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Race 5 is the Grade 3 Tempted for 2yo fillies, and as with many baby races run around here Todd Pletcher has the favorite in STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#5, 9-5). She drops out of a no threat 3rd behind a pair of fillies who figure to be the two favorites in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, but while this is clearly a better spot I'm not so sure she's a cinch at a short price.

STONETASTIC (#2, 2-1) is a close second choice and appears a logical horse in this race after a pair of solid efforts to begin her career. Like Stopchargingmaria she was a convincing debut winner sprinting, and last time was defeated by a horse who figures to be a player in the Breeders' Cup in Untapable.

I'll take a shot against the two favorites with the Darley filly DIVIDED ATTENTION (#3, 5-1) who already owns a win at this one-turn mile trip, and who I thought actually ran a promising 4th in the Frizette late time after winding up last and down inside through the turn before coming on with a game finish. - Mike Beer

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Spot Play

WITH EXULTATION (#5, 5-1) was a beaten favorite in each of his last three starts but he was pace-compromised in each of his last two, and he moved prematurely three back; expecting a big effort from him here in his third start off the layoff. -Kenny Peck

Live Longshot

BARNARDS GALAXY (#9, 12-1) appeared to break ok before being wrangled back to last and never getting involved; expect improvement with the huge rider switch .- Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Race 8 is a wide-open and interesting running of the Grade 2 Nashua for 2yo colts, and it won't be a surprise to me if a couple of these horses turn out to be pretty good. Of course Team Pletcher is well represented, saddling both INTENSE HOLIDAY (#2, 6/1) and MASTER LIGHTNING (#8, 8/1). They are both fair prices on the morning line, and, significantly, have both already won over a distance of ground, which may prove an advantage over some of their more inexperienced rivals.

Included among those inexperienced horses (fully half of the 12 horse field will be stretching out directly off of debut wins sprinting), are the ML favorites: MANHATTAN JOHNNIE (#11, 7/2) and CAIRO PRINCE (#12, 4/1). Of the two, I much prefer the former. Manhattan Johnnie brought $400k in March after putting in a strong & visually impressive breeze in 10.1 at the Barretts sale, and then turned around and buried maidens first out over a sloppy, sealed track without taking a deep breath. I don't generally like to take horses like this, especially in graded stakes races, but I have been very impressed with this horse and think he may turn out to be more than okay.

The other horse I want to use is LOUISIANA FLYBOY (#1, 6/1) who was privately purchased after a most impressive debut over fellow La-breds back on August 1st. If you haven't seen that race yet, you should pull the replay, as he was virtually eliminated at the start only to pick up with a big run from way out of it to run over the entire field in the stretch. I'm not thrilled that it's been three months since that race, but perhaps the details of the eventual sale held him up a bit. - Mike Beer

Vulnerable Favorite

SO SCOTT (#3) has a Beyer pattern that's in a steady decline, and now he's in for a tag off the short layoff; with 10 runner-up finishes in 26 tries he's one to try to beat on the win end at a short price. -Kenny Peck

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>