Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 28, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

HOT STONES (#3, 2-1) tough call on this one as she did pass some horses in the lane on a day that favored frontrunners, but the ones she was passing were longshots chasing a wire to wire even money foe; think she’s going to be way overbet due to her figures. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

CAIXA ELETRONICA (#3, 7-2) is the prototypical hard-hitter having earned over $1.1 million in this game the hard way; that is, over 68 races in a career that stretches all the way back to July 14, 2007. He comes to this year’s running of the Fall Highweight as the defending champ, and while he had kept better form and much better company on his way to victory here in 2012, he has still won half of his eight starts this year, and his victory in the Duck Dance stakes last month was his best yet, earning him an 11th career triple digit Beyer.

STRAPPING GROOM (#6, 5-2) had had a career year at the age of six. After being claimed for $35k back on May 24th, he has won 3-of-6 starts, earned over $400k, and became a Grade 1 winner with his victory in the prestigious Forego at Saratoga. There is some concern, at least in this corner, as to whether he has tailed off a bit since the Forego, as he has been unable to impact his two starts since then and was particularly disappointing in last month’s Bold Ruler after getting a clear early lead.

The Barry Schwartz/Mike Hushion entry of B SHANNY and THE LUMBER GUY (#1, 4-1) is not without its merits, though there are question marks surrounding both horses. The Lumber Guy is clearly the more talented of the duo, but he has been badly off form since a gutsy effort in last year’s Breeder’s Cup Sprint; while B Shanny, who has held form over a long series of races, just appears a cut below some of his competition here, though he does have some speed which may play well in the Highweight.

For the top slot, I’ve narrowed it down to PALACE (#5, 5/1) and SAGE VALLEY (#7, 3-1), and will likely let price dictate the play. Palace has been the beneficiary of two perfect trips in a row since switching back to dirt, but he’s run well both times, and has made very few mistakes since claimed by Linda Rice last year: 7 starts on dirt, 5 wins, 2 runnerup finishes by less than a length. He’s in form and has a nice stalking style.

Sage Valley may be a more difficult call, and he’s certainly a horse I’ve had a tough time reading in the past. He’s bombed in two straight races, but they were both contested over sloppy/sealed tracks, and if you can give him the surface excuse, there are a series of 100+ Beyers on his card dating back to last October. He also drew an excellent post for an outside stalking trip, and starts for the hottest trainer on the grounds, which cannot be understated considering how Rudy’s horses have been running since racing switched to his home track.

Live Longshot

PALACE (#5, 5-1): Several graded stakes winners in this edition of the Fall Highweight are in suspect form, while this New York-bred is razor sharp after matching his career Beyer top (100) in winning the Hudson; 2 for 2 on Aqueduct’s main track. --Dave Litfin

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Race 9

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