Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 2, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

Vulnerable Favorite

NO NUKES (#4, 5-2) strongly against this one, who angled out and bumped rival but had a clear run ; now takes a hike in class to boot. - Chuck Kuehhas

Live Longshot

ED’S MAGIC (#7, 12-1) when last seen on main track, he pressed the pace before tiring going 6 ½; goes turf to dirt here and cuts back along with a class drop for barn that knows how to put one over.- Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 6

Race 6 is the Grade 3 Discovery for 3yo’s, and features a well-matched field of eight, with a coupled entry from Pletcher/Repole. Ultimately this race may just come down to trips, and as there is not a confirmed front runner in the field, perhaps you want to give an extra look to a horse like BAD HOMBRE (#2, 15-1), who has some speed and may be able to make a comfortable pace. Personally, I don’t think he’s good enough, with or without a pace advantage, and it does appear that there are a couple of horses who can at least keep him honest up front; on the other hand, he is a big price, and you should bet him if you like him. One of the horses that can keep him honest on the lead is ML favorite ROMANSH (#6, 2-1) who earned a couple for figures prior to his no-show Pennsylvania Derby which suggest he is better than these horses. I’ll use him in the multi’s but am not convinced of his true quality just yet, and will try to beat him straight up at that price. In a lot of ways, based strictly off of each entrant’s last race, one of Pletcher’s three entrants (not part of the entry) , BATTIER (#5, 7/2) is the horse to beat. Not only did he earn a triple digit Beyer for his strong PA Derby effort, but he did so while making a wide run against an inside-favoring track. Battier was also compromised by dynamics when finishing only 4th best in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones two back. He’s dangerous, but figures to be an uninteresting price this time, after offering plenty of value in those last two races.

I’ll instead look to take a shot in here with Bill Mott’s MR PALMER (#4, 6-1). Mr Palmer was all potential earlier this year, improving from start-to-start while stretched out in distance, and ultimately not embarrassing himself in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial behind the likes of Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. He missed time after that, and while his return in the sloppy Indiana Derby isn’t much to get excited about on paper, I will point out that he didn’t break well in that race, and then spent the entire trip saving ground along the rail, which is the exact opposite tact taken by the horses that finished 1-2-3-4, who all spent the entire race on the outside.

To me, Mr Palmer is a bounce back candidate in the Discovery, and I will take him to post a mild upset. - Mike Beer

Spot Play

BATTIER(#5, 7-2) finds a favorable spot after finishing third in the Pennsylvania Derby against Will Take Charge and Moreno – horses running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic; rock solid form and reunited with Castillo, who rode him to four victories earlier in his career.-Byron King

Spot Play

BAD HOMBRE (#2, 15-1) was, in retrospect, probably overmatched in against a deep field in the Indiana Derby, and that was certainly the case in the Kings Bishop, but he may be well spotted as the main speed from the inside in this Discovery Handicap; also using MR PALMER (#4, 6-1), who comes out of the same race, where he lost his best chance at the start. -Kenny Peck

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Race 7

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Race 8

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