Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 16, 2013

Race 1

Live Longshot

CAKE N COOKIES (#4, 20-1): This homebred filly was shuffled back to last through the third quarter of her maiden special-weight debut vs. Stock Fund, who returned to win a first-level allowance; may show more with blinkers on. - Dave Litfin

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

Vulnerable Favorite

NATIVE SINGER (#1, 3-1): Ok effort wiring group last week, but field had little but runnerup colt who had a couple of questions going in; draws rail and faces winners for first time and will be overbet due to top Beyer last. - Chuck Kuehhas

Spot Play

PRECIOUS METAL (#10, 5-1) goes turf to dirt for barn that’s been on a recent roll; overbet fave on rail ensures ok price here, but will not play to win if under 4-1. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

Race 7 is the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap for older turf horses and despite drawing a big field of 13, it was difficult, for me anyway, to get too clever. The ML favorite is HYPER (#11, 5-2), a hard-knocking and highly consistent runner who has handled extra distance very well this year. All things considered, Hyper ran very well to be second best in a tougher race up in Canada last month, and based on recent form – to say nothing of the year-long roll his connections have been on – he is a clear horse to beat.

The horse that I want to try to beat him with is something of a surprise to me, because IMAGINING (#2, 7-2) is not a horse that I have been much of a fan of in the past. Imagining had always seemed like a horse that looked really good when allowed to have things his own way, but wilted when faced with any adversity at all in his races. However, I think his last race showed that he may have turned a corner, as he did not have a candy trip in that overnight race, but was still a strong winner. He appears to be the speed of this race from a good post and I’ll take him to post a mild upset on Saturday.

The filly TANNERY (#6, 5-1) is highly underrated in my opinion, handles distance, and ran very well vs. the boys in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. She’s a major factor in this race, and will be included in my Pick 4 play.

The one longshot I will include is ARTIC NORTH (#1, 20-1) who is lightly raced but improving and full of potential. He’s 2-for-2 since privately purchased by sharp connections, and may be able to get a piece of this. - Mike Beer

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Race 8

Spot Play

BOND VIGILANTE (#1, 9-2) may be overlooked a bit in the wagering, coming off a loss at Charles Town, but he may not have loved the conditions there (sloppy track); expect him to revert to his front-running ways here from this inside post.-Kenny Peck

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Race 9

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