Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 22, 2014

Race 1

Closer Looks >>

Race 2

Closer Looks >>

Race 3

Closer Looks >>

Race 4

Spot Play

PROFLUENT (#8, 8-1) took the worst of it first out for this barn, getting stuck on a four-wide chase against a wire-to-wire winner, and he ran well over a muddy, sealed track a LRL last time against an okay horse in Woelf Den; Dutrow has strong numbers with maidens adding blinkers for the first time according to Formulator: Past Five Years, 21-for-63 (33%), $2.63 ROI. - Mike Beer

Closer Looks >>

Race 5

Spot Play

CAST A DOUBT (#7, 3-1): Forced a sharp pace when stretched out to two turns most recently; turns back to six furlongs, the distance at which he was a game winner of his local bow with a 91 Beyer two starts back. --Dave Litfin

Closer Looks >>

Race 6

Closer Looks >>

Race 7

Spot Play

GO APPEAL (#4, 5-1) the likely longer half of the uncoupled McLaughlin entry returns to the races off a five month layoff; will play to win at listed price and exacta box with #7 MALEEH. - Chuck Kuehhas

Closer Looks >>

Race 8

Excelsior Stakes by Mike Beer

LONG RIVER (#1, 2-5) and entry mate ROMANSH (#1A) have been installed as the odds-on morning line favorites for the Grade 3 Excelsior, and it’s hard to argue with that reading of the race. Long River appears to be the more fancied half of the coupling, as he enters the Excelsior on a three race winning streak and with a solid new Beyer top of 107 for his convincing Evening Attire win over PERCUSSION (#4, 6-1), who will take another shot at him here. Long River has the pedigree and connections to be a player in some of the bigger races going forward, assuming he continues his current upward trend, and appears to have found a spot here to enhance his credentials. I believe him to be a clear horse to beat, whether his entry mate starts or not, and am unlikely to oppose him.

His entry mate Romansh makes for a capable backup, although he is, to me at least, a bit of a tough read. It would be difficult to find two races that are more dichotomous than the two most recent efforts put forth by this horse. His 110 Beyer blowout of the Grade 3 Discovery two starts back made Romansh appear to be a horse on the cusp of breaking into the upper echelon on the handicap division, but when given that chance in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap in early February, he was a complete no show finishing far back in last. Obviously, he didn’t have to win the Donn, but that effort left much to be desired and puts Romansh in the position now of having to prove it all over again. Unfortunately for those who remain believers in this horse, he is coupled with the horse to beat, so they will have to await another day to express that opinion at the windows.

Percussion is the most likely horse to pull an upset in the Excelsior as he figures not only to be the clear speed in the race, but he enters in fine form of his own. After giving Long River a run for his money in that fast edition of the Evening Attire, Percussion returned to run a huge race in the Stymie, dueling the pace every yard before succumbing right at the end.

Spot Play

The Godolphin entry is of course going to be tough but perhaps PERCUSSION (#4, 6-1) is good enough to spring the upset. He looks like the main speed and he nearly beat LONG RIVER two back when he was afforded a loose lead. -Kenny Peck

Closer Looks >>

Race 9

Closer Looks >>