Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for March 1, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

Tom Fool Handicap by Byron King

CANDYMAN E ran down a loose-on-the-lead frontrunner in the Toboggan, winning in fast time, and is an older classy runner with 10 wins from 21 starts; likely not of the same class as uncoupled stablemate STAPPING GROOM, but the latter missed a start this month with a foot injury and might not be ready for his best. Regardless, the price will be better on CANDYMAN E, who is 5-2 on the line, compared to even money on STRAPPING GROOM. The latter, winner of the Grade 1 Forego last year, earned a flashy 110 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Gravesend on the inner track in late December but then missed training – as noted from the gap in his works from Jan. 21 to Feb. 12; in a must-send position from the fence and DADS CAPS appears as fast as him early. As for DADS CAPS, he nearly held off CANDYMAN E in the Toboggan, just getting run down late after drifting out. He is an honest sort who has never been worse than fourth in seven starts.

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Race 5

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Race 6

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Race 7

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Race 8

Top Flight Handicap by Michael Hammersly

SUMMER APPLAUSE isn’t a sprinter. Yes, she broke her maiden sprinting in her second career start, at Woodbine in December 2011, but that was more a case of her simply being much the best horse, not that she likes the trip. She didn’t sprint again until this past fall when her connections tried something different – take on champion Groupie Doll in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. ‘APPLAUSE was no match for that big gal but after a slow start she ran on very well for fourth. It was one of her best efforts.

Well, Saturday she finds two things very much to her liking in the Top Flight – first, she’s back to routing, surely her preferred game, and second, there’s no one like Groupie Doll lined up against her here. It’s no small matter, too, that this 5-year-old mare won this race fairly easily last year. She’s always been good; maybe just a cut or two below the best gals in the game. She hasn’t run since that Nov. 2 Breeders’ Cup engagement but trainer Chad Brown showed with Normandy Invasion at Gulfstream last week that he’s extremely good off the bench. His mare has been working in smart fashion the past month and a half or so at Palm Meadows, she’s proven here, has the versatility to give her rider options and as noted above, doesn’t face a real division heavyhead here. So what’s not to like? Well, because of those aforementioned factors you can’t expect to get rich on her, as she figures to go off in the 6-5 range. But there are too many things on the asset side of her ledger to ignore.

One reason her price won’t be even shorter is the presence of inner-track specialist TEEN PAULINE. The daughter of Tapit showed ample promise as a 2-year-old but by the time the calendar turned to 2014 she had just a Grade 1 placing and Grade 3 placing to her credit. That changed Jan. 1, however, when she came here and blitzed foes, including a couple of these, in the Affectionately, earning a 95 Beyer. That seemed a revelation so trainer Todd Pletcher brought her back against some of those same gals in the Jan. 25 Ladies Handicap and she did even better, winning a laugher by 10 3/4 lengths, geared down, for a 97 Beyer.

Either she’s turned the corner or has found her sandbox; or a combination of the two. Regardless, she’s suddenly very scary and her speed means they have to go and get her. SUMMER APPLAUSE does, fortunately, have tactical speed so she doesn’t have to lose touch with ‘PAULINE. There’s also the presence of speedster FLORES ISLAND who is quite capable of keeping TEEN PAULINE honest from the bell.

And while those last two big efforts point to ‘PAULINE turning the corner, note they don’t give her any real edge against SUMMER APPLAUSE, who Beyered 93 in this race last year and posted figs of 98 and 97 in her last two starts of 2014.

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Race 9

Gotham Stakes by Michael Hammersly

Is the clock striking midnight on New York-breds SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH?

The two went at it tooth-and-nail for the entire 1 1/16 miles of the Grade 3 Withers, with SAMRAAT prevailing to stay unbeaten in four starts. UNCLE SIGH lost nothing in defeat, finishing 10 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Both colts seem at their best when utilizing their speed, and they figure to do so again here. That could lead to another spirited duel. What’s more, toss in Grade 2 Futurity (6 furlongs) winner IN TROUBLE who has sprint speed, and EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER, who isn’t exactly slow early, and you may have even more pressure up front. Can either SAMRAAT or UNCLE SIGH win that pace battle – and still have enough to win the war?

In other words, this looks as it could set up well for HARPOON. The $500,000 son of Tapit makes his first start here but he’s run well in Saratoga mud, on Belmont dirt, on Aqueduct (big track) dirt, Gulfstream dirt and Tampa Bay dirt, so odds are he’ll handle this place. His second in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa last time out (Feb. 1) was very nice. He bided his time, got shoved out very wide into the lane but finished strongly to just miss by a nose to stablemate Vinceremos. In fact, if that race had been 1 1/16 miles and one jump then HARPOON likely would have won. Alas, that’s not the way the race was written up in the condition book.

It’s noteworthy, too, that trainer Todd Pletcher opted to wheel him back for this. After all, he could have waited another week and stayed at Tampa for the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, particularly as he already had MASTER LIGHTNING and MONOPOLIZE slated for this. That likely tells you HARPOON is doing awfully well, and two big recent works at Palm Meadows (4 furlongs in :48B Feb. 16, 4 furlongs in a bullet :47.80B Feb. 23) back up that assessment.

He’s on the far outside, yes, but this field may string out quickly, meaning his rider can likely avoid getting hung out to dry – he can move up and over, likely sitting midpack while the aforementioned speedsters go at it early.

His Sam F. Davis Beyer was just 82, but he’s been slowly inching up the Beyer scale and may be ready for a more significant forward move. He’ll need it against SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH who have been posting Beyers in the mid-90s but it’s in no way out of reach for a horse who’s run just give times.

Exotically speaking the two Empire-breds still merit a ton of respect. Each has shown speed and courage, and the ability go at least this far. Still, each knows the other’s strength (speed) and may well view this as something of a match race, meaning come that final furlong could they have been softened up enough to be usurped late by a horse like HARPOON?

Another potential beneficiary of a hot pace and some tiring speed is FINANCIAL MOGUL. He rallied well to be second in the Grade 2 Nashua on the big track here Nov. 3, a run that looks even better when you note the horse he was gaining on was Cairo Prince, who came back to be an excellent second to top-class Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen and then romped in the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan. 25.

‘MOGUL tried the Holy Bull as well but was far back and was unable to make an impact in the lane, finishing sixth. That was not only his first start in almost three months but the Gulfstream strip has not been friendly to closers. And this guy’s sprint maiden win in the slop at Saratoga Aug. 31 shows he doesn’t have to come from the clouds, either. A bullet 1:00.60B at Fairhill last Saturday says he’s feeling pretty spry and usually when trainer Rick Violette Jr.’s horses go fast in the a.m. they tend to go fast in the p.m., too.

Live Longshot

HARPOON (#10, 10-1) doesn't have the Beyers of some of the primary contenders in the Gotham but he comes off a deceptively good effort, where he closed nicely despite a race flow that favored speeds; post no bargain but he's dangerous with the right trip. -Kenny Peck

Spot Play

IN TROUBLE (#2, 5-1): Several Gotham hopefuls have recorded Beyer Figures in the 90s, but this colt was able to do so in early fall as a juvenile. The field’s lone Grade 2 winner projects for a ground-saving trip just off the leaders, and may be a square price in a field with 10 betting interests. --Dave Litfin

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Race 10

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