Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for January 4, 2014
Race 1 |
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Race 2 |
Vulnerable FavoriteEVASIVE CAT (#5, 8-5) has back figures much better than these and will ensure short price; she was dull in her last and three prior were all losses as the chalk. Leaving out of multi race wagers. Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
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Race 5 |
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Race 6 |
Spot PlayFIERCE BOOTS (#2, 6-1): Lost all chance when off well behind the field from the inside post, and made up ground late behind morning-line favorite Alpaca Fina when back on dirt Dec. 5; lightly raced and improving filly from Todd Pletcher might turn the tables with better racing luck. - Dave Litfin
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Race 7 |
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Race 8 |
Jerome Stakes by Dan IllmanCLASSIC GIACNROLL earned the Jerome’s top Beyer Speed Figure when a rallying third traveling seven furlongs in the mud Dec. 7. After saving ground at the back of the pack for the first half-mile, Classic Giacnroll advanced while widest turning for home and finished well to be third. He galloped out nicely after the wire and was flattered when two of his rivals returned to win stakes (Joint Custody prevailed in the Maryland Juvenile Championship by 5 1/2 lengths with an 84 Beyer, while Extrasexyhippzster shipped to New York to win the Don RIckles by five lengths with a 93 Beyer). This will be Classic Giacnroll’s first start around two turns, but he should receive sufficient stamina from his sire, Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo. He can work out a nice stalking trip under new rider Alex Solis. NOBLE MOON looms the horse to beat for trainer Leah Gyarmati. A longshot gate-to-wire debut winner over a speed-favoring Belmont surface Sept. 14, Noble Moon broke poorly in his first start against winners, the Grade 2 Nashua on Nov. 3. Although placed behind the eight ball early, Noble Moon received a hot pace to rally into and made an eye-catching wide move into contention on the turn. He flattened out a bit in the final furlong, but still finished a good third behind Cairo Prince, a colt that acquitted himself wonderfully when narrowly beaten by the highly regarded Honor Code in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Nov. 30. Noble Moon was entered in the Remsen, but was forced to withdraw after suffering from hives. Given an alert break from the inside post, Noble Moon should be forwardly placed, if not outright on the lead. Note that Gyarmati is only 1 for 31 over the past two years with horses returning from 61-180-day layoffs, according to DRF Formulator (She is 1 for 27 over the past five years with similar layoff horses in route races). SCOTLAND is still a maiden, but he’s always shown promise. He sold for 124 times his sire’s stud fee after breezing three furlongs in 33.1 at OBS in April and finished ahead of two next-out graduates when finishing behind the promising Surfing U S A at Aqueduct on Nov. 30. Scotland took a strong Beyer leap that afternoon and has been working quickly at Fair Hill for trainer Tony Dutrow. MASTER LIGHTNING didn’t do much in both the Nashua and Remsen, but took advantage of a tepid pace when besting only three others in an entry-level optional claimer over the inner track Dec. 22. He has enough speed to be in the early mix for Todd Pletcher and may appreciate a wet track. Conversely, MATUSZAK has zero early ability and will likely need a strong pace and good racing luck in order to adequately set up his late flurry. Forgiving handicappers will note that he was stymied by glacial fractions in the Remsen, faced a very promising runner in Almost Famous at Churchill Downs, and may not have cared for the Polytrack during the Keeneland meet. Perhaps his form is sufficiently “dirtied up” in order to merit consideration for the exotics. LAWMAKER closed resolutely to handle Buck n’ Ham Lane when scoring first out at Laurel. While that one returned to graduate by 9 1/2 lengths in his next start, he was subsequently drowned by Joint Custody in the Maryland Juvenile Championship. Lawmaker is bred for distance success as a half-brother to long-winded Last Gunfighter and trainer Chad Brown excels with maiden winners returning in dirt routes (14 for 36, 39 percent, $2.53 return on investment over the past five years, according to Formulator). MENTAL ICEBERG was vanned off after upsetting a turf field in his debut and didn’t make a dent in the Remsen. After breaking well, he was stoutly rated despite the lack of pace up front. Perhaps he’ll be allowed to show more in the opening furlongs this time around. PIN AND WIN’s lone victory came against $25,000 maiden claimers at Calder, and his Beyers pale in comparison to those of the top contenders. He may play a part in the pace as he stretches out in distance, but he needs a career-best performance in order to threaten. Selections 1. Classic Giacnroll
Spot PlayMASTER LIGHTNING (#8, 6-1) doesn’t appear to have improved much since first pair of races, but maybe the slow paces in last two were contributory. Pletcher brings him back in two weeks and will play at a tick below listed price. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 9 |
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