Aqueduct: DRF Plus handicapping report for April 5, 2014

Race 1 Formulator PPs

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Race 2 Formulator PPs

Live Longshot

HOTCHOI (#4, 30-1) has works that suggest he'll run better than his recent form might indicate as he makes his first start off the layoff; using in all slots at what should be a huge price. -Kenny Peck

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Race 3 Formulator PPs

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Race 4 Formulator PPs

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Race 5 Formulator PPs

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Race 6 Formulator PPs

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Race 7 Formulator PPs

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Race 8 Formulator PPs

Bay Shore Stakes by Mike Beer

Bay Shore: KOBE'S BACK (#8, 2/1) has appeared a real talent since running over stakes competition after a slow break on debut, and it seems pretty clear at this point that if he is to make his name it will be in shorter races. His Rebel was a disaster, and one best forgotten, but this turn back hits him between the eyes, there is pace signed on for him to run into, and he may simply be the best horse. He's tough to stand too strongly against. THE ADMIRAL (#7, 3/1) is also talented, and he too seems destined to be better over shorter, so the turn back is viewed as a positive for him, as well. It really all comes down to price with The Admiral, in my view. On paper he has no business being 3/1 in this field, and it's an easy decision to toss him at that price. At double that number, though, I could bet him. FAVORITE TALE (#6, 5/1) is fast and undefeated through three starts vs. inferior competition at Parx; gets a real test here, but may well be up for it. We'll see. Of the two remaining turn backs out of graded stakes tries, I would use COUP DE GRACE (#4, 4/1) and pass on FINANCIAL MOGUL (#3, 8/1), price discrepancy noted.

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Race 9 Formulator PPs

Gazelle Stakes by Mike Beer

There are three main contenders in this Grade 2 route over nine-furlongs, and while it is likely that the winner is among the trio of #2 GOT LUCKY (3/1), #3 SWEET REASON (8/5) or #4 MY MISS SOPHIA (9/5), there are some questions about all of them. My Miss Sophia appears to be at a tactical advantage as the speed of the race, and figures tough to catch assuming she handles the pick up of more distance. Sweet Reason has already displayed her ability as a Gr1 winning 2yo, and while I wouldn't put too much stock in that 58 Beyer from her last race, she is a question mark going this far. Got Lucky, meanwhile, does not appear to be challenged by distance, but lacks much in the way of early speed, and needs to finally step up with a definitive fast race. It's likely one of them wins, but not so easy to separate them, unless you just take the position that My Miss Sophia is going to control and win.

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Race 10 Formulator PPs

Wood Memorial by Mike Beer

Much buzz surrounds this Wood Memorial, and most of that began when the connections of SOCIAL INCLUSION (#11, 2/1) announced that the undefeated, and untested, colt would run here. He didn't draw well on the outside, and is going to face a truer test in this race, but there's no denying his natural ability. He needs points if they are thinking Derby with him, and this race offers plenty of those, so expect him to bring his A game. Not much separating SAMRAAT (#8, 7/2) and UNCLE SIGH (#10, 5/1) after a pair of matchups in the Withers and Gotham. Samraat came away the better of the two both times, and it does feel like, to this point, he may just be better than Uncle Sigh. I wanted a closer to use in this race, and decided that WICKED STRONG (#2, 15/1)was the right one. Wicked Strong showed enough potential as a 2yo to get a shot in the Remsen (where he ran very well) and in the Holy Bull (where he didn't), but I like him getting away from Gulfstream Park and back to a track where he ran so well over this trip last year.

Live Longshot

WICKED STRONG (#2, 15-1): With a fast pace projected from several horses drawn wide, this 11-horse renewal of the Wood Memorial may be ripe pickings for a closer like this, who rallied gamely into slow fractions in the Remsen last fall; may have simply disliked the surface at Gulfstream Park. --Dave Litfin

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Race 11 Formulator PPs

Carter Handicap by Mike Beer

Solid cast assembled for the Grade 1 Carter, with headliner SAHARA SKY (#6, 2/1) arriving from California in an attempt to better his runnerup effort in this race last year. He was back to his good form in last month's San Carlos, and while he benefitted from a terrific ride from Joel Rosario, he was there when it was time and finished strong. One issue for Sahara Sky may be the lack of true quality speed in this race, and that may tilt the advantage to one of the newly turned 4yo's he will have to contend with here, CENTRAL BANKER (#1, 5/1) and CLEARLY NOW (#2, 5/1). Central Banker may have been best when moving first and being asked to carry a long run into a wickedly-paced Grade 1 Malibu last December, and he doesn't have to be way out of early contention. Clearly Now, meanwhile, is one or two heartbreaking losses away from compiling an elite sprinters resume as a three-year-old, and is more tactically inclined than his main competition. The layoff is the biggest concern, but if he's ready he'll be a handful, and the morning line price is more than fair.

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Race 12 Formulator PPs

Spot Play

STARDOM (#8, 5-1) sports some strong breezes in preparation for this debut, and he should be expected to come out running; certainly playable at the ML price of 5-1 or higher. -Kenny Peck

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