Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 9, 2013

Race 1

Johnny Star

Offspring of Leading the Parade, who won 2 of 18 starts and 97K, have won only 1 of 45 debuts; the dam involved won 3 of 15 and 61K; among the winning siblings is 31K earner Soup to Go; prefer other firsters in this loaded field.

Special Agent

His sire is Medaglia d'Oro who won multiple G1s on the NYRA circuit (his progeny are 10 percent winners first time out); the dam was also a multiple G1 type who banked 1.05 million; sib to 393K earner Dunkirk; respect.

King Kongrats

Not much to highlight up to now but blinker removal could help matters; his sire won a G2 and 998K while the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; winning siblings include 59K earner Throroughly; note distinct improvement to the latest gate breeze.

Percy's Ambition

Beginner hails from Spring At Last who amassed 1.13 million including G1 success (his descendants have won 11 out of 72 initial starts); the dam won 2 of 28 and 45K; winning siblings include 45K earner Gal Umet.

Danaus

Turf-to-dirt possibility has shown more gate speed in the last pair; faced an above average group in his main track debut and may show more staying power now with the return to this surface; should be a square price as well.

Neoclassic

Unlucky in both appearances thus far; his sire won multiple G1s and 5.15 million; the dam lost her only attempt; winning siblings include 24K earner Lola's Love; worth some follow-up here with generous odds expected.

Unknown Road

The selection based on the trainer's record with newcomers; this gelding was sired by multiple G1 winner Bernardini who captured 3.06 million (his progeny have won 11 percent of debuts); the dam won 106K; sib to multiple G1 Banshee Breeze who netted 2.78 million.

Coup de Grace

This colt's sire won the G1 Wood Memorial and 557K overall (descendants of Tapit are 53 for 432 as far as winning first time out); the dam won 2 of 4 and 73K; among the winning siblings is 138K earner Enclosure. -Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Sportswriter

His last win came in a stakes race here but it was almost a year ago and he really hasn't been much of a factor in any of is races since; the change of scenery might do him some good and the past five years his new trainer has a 23% strike rate with newly claimed horses; nonetheless, it is hard to support him off what he has shown us lately.

Longfor the City

In both of his wins he came from a stalking position and in his last two he forced the issue right from the start; he couldn't keep up with the heavy chalk in his latest but he finished a clear second and the horse that finished third won his next start at this level here Nov. 3; plenty of speed in the field and he could be dangerous with a patent ride; sharp work Oct. 29 adds to his appeal; big shot.

Marsh Dawg

7-year-old certainly knows how to win races but all 9 of his wins came at Finger Lakes and he wasn't much of a factor when he ran in a similar race at Belmont in July; he can fire fresh and Englehart has solid stats in all the relevant categories but this guy still has to prove he can get it done here.

Cay to Pomeroy

Looks like he needs to be in front to be competitive and there appears to be plenty of other speed in the field; he earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure in a $14K optional race two back but that was a tough group he ran into in the $150K Hudson and he couldn't keep up after forcing the issue early; a similar scenario could be in store for him here.

Be Bullish

He's certainly the class of the party with over $842K in the bank and 5 stakes wins to his credit; 8-year-old earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure the last time he ran here and it was coming off a similar layoff; lone concern is that he was claimed out of his latest and his new trainer has just a single win with the last 15 claimed horses he's brought back the first time; nonetheless, this guy can stalk and has to be considered a serious player in this speed-laden field.

Saint Arthur

He's been away since he led the whole way in the $50K Ontario County at Finger Lakes June 29 but he's been working nicely Martin can have them ready to roll coming off this type of layoff; toss his race in the mud at Belmont and he's been right there every time; all of his sibs are runners including $369K Shrewd One who finished second in the NY Derby; this guy is versatile and appears primed for a big effort; contender.

Meeker Avenue

He won the Stallion Stakes as a 2-year-old over this track a year ago but his lone win since came in a $20K conditional claimer at Saratoga where he earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 71; he'll need to post a much-higher number to be competitive here and considering how poorly he ran in his latest race we're going to look elsewhere.

Jeter

He found the right group in his first start for McMahon at Laurel and he drew a nice post where Castellano should be able to put him into a stalking position; hard to ignore the 104 Beyer he earned in a key race the last time he ran over this surface and he could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of his current form cycle; the pick.-Randy Goulding

Race 3

Grand Cicero

Makes his first start since the near miss debut effort at Gulfstream 8 months ago; 4 year old went for more than 33 times his sire's stud fee at auction so they saw something they liked in him and the barn does do nice work first time back; both of the unraced dam's other 2 foals to race are sprint winners; if would benefit him to get off to a better beginning with the move to the fence, but he's a contender.

Clever Story

Wasn't beaten much from the Belmont fence after taking some tote support in his debut a couple of months back; his dam dropped a handful of sprint winners including G1 SW and 1 million earner Yes It's True, so this guy certainly has a right to move forward off the solid number he earned first time out; with the circuit's top pilot taking the call he figures to be the one to hold off.

Distorted Dream

Field's most experiemced runner coughed up a clear early lead when holding second as the chalk on the drop to claimers last time; he'll go first off the claim for a barn that does a decent job with that type and the cut back to this trip should benefit a runner who ran fast enough to win this one a couple of times last year; his best makes him a threat but we'd try to beat him on the win end in his local debut.

Mr. O'Leary

He's only run 3 times and has shown decent speed but he didn't have enough to threaten the money finishers in that last out dirt crack at the level; Belmont debut back in the spring was solid and maybe last week's drill is a sign he's set to get back on his game, but he's got a lot to prove off what he's done since returning from the break.

In the Dark

Hasn't been much of a threat in any of his starts this year and now he'll get off the fence; he did work well last week across town in preparation for this but he's going to need to take a good step forward to get in the mix for even a minor share today; longshot.

Bred to Boss

Ships back to this circuit after fading out of it in the Parx lane second back from the long break; colt was in rather tough in his Saratoga debut a couple of summers ago; he returns just 2 weeks off that last effort and don't know that he'll be able to take another step forward here; looking at others on the win end.

Candy At My Place

Offered improved early foot before fading on the slight stretchout second out at Belmont; maybe the cut back helps, but this barn doesn't win many races and this guy's stamina will need to improve significantly to prove more than just a pace factor.

Protocol

West Coast debuter ran into a pretty good one in his Santa Anita debut nearly 8 months back as that guy returned to take a stake on Pimlico's Preakness undercard with a 103 Beyer and the runner up also returned to break his maiden while earning a 93 Beyer so the number was legitimate; third place finisher of that heat has gone on to be G2 SP on the lawn; barn does a decent job with its fresh runners and this guy is kin to a 5 time sprint winner; he'll need to get more involved early but he's been working regularly for his return to the races; looms the main threat.

Cost Affective

Outside drawn colt hasn't had much to offer since shipping to this circuit and moving to this barn's care; outfit is profitable with its fresh runners so maybe that helps, but even with a move forward a minor award figures to prove his ceiling.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Red Shogun

Sheds the shades and wheels right back after a difficult return to the Big A main; breaks from the fence for the first time though and may have difficulty overcoming the soft pace that seems in store today; minor award at best.

Sunrise Lover

Chronic maiden tries to recover from last week's fiasco; has hit the board at big odds in the past and may actually be worth some trifecta inclusion here because of the nature of the field; still, cannot endorse for the top spot, rain or shine.

Pegasus Tiger

Only 2 blemishes on the record and he lost to a blowout winner in the latest run; his sire won the G2 Remsen and 450K; the dam was zero for 4; winning siblings include 168K earner Pegasus Diamond; playable.

Acigarisjustacigar

He has yet to finish in the money but makes his main track debut; the sire won 1 of 12 attempts and 44K while the dam lost her only attempt; this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate; a wait and see betting approach is suggested.

No Nukes

Ignore the latest try which involved a very troubled start; previous showing was solid and if he can recapture that performance level via a clean stalking trip, he should be in the mix here; a wet track may pose problems though.

One Red Cat

Raced evenly in his grass debut last month; the prior effort is of interest when he showed much more in the way of prompting speed despite the class transition; returns to the handling of Castellano and to the purchase price; consider.

River Knight

Dead last in his unveiling last month when triple digit odds; atypical 1-mile workout thereafter is intriguing; his sire won multiple G2s and 816K; the dam won 2 of 26 and 34K; among the winning siblings is 30K earner Stealth Seed.

Six Drivers

See the previous runner for information about the same sire; the dam was without a tally in 3 attempts; among the winning siblings is 236K earner Downtown Hottie; no firepower shown on the lawn but surface switch can help with the reversal.

Cielo Soleggiato

Turns back from a series of turf routes where he showed some respectable early speed; seemed intimidated by the rail slot in the latest run and that effort can be dismissed; ran a decent second at the beginning of his career at this trip.

Woburn

Returns with Lasix addition but has been clearly beaten by some of these same foes in recent starts; might earn a minor share at a big price if able to catch a wet-fast surface; otherwise, cannot endorse as a serious candidate.

My New Hope

Although out of the exacta yet again recently, he chased the early leader for a good part of the running; one of several wheeling back on a week's notice in this line-up, he seems destined for a tough wide trip where he will be discouraged.-Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Frege

She's run well in her recent starts, but after seeing her in the Pebbles in her latest outing, maybe she just isn't quite this caliber; this filly is a 1/2 to the dam of today's rival Cat's Holiday; looking at this as being a tough spot for her to be going after her second career win.

Wave Theory

Multiple graded stakes placed miss enters this race off of one of her sharper performances and the runner up from that race returned to win next out at Bel on 10/20 going 1 1/8m over turf vs. 35k OPC's with an 83 Beyer; it might be worth noting the presence of Castellano aboard the other Brown-trained filly in here.

Roses for Romney

Respect the fact that this stakes placed filly can push the early tempo if she wants to, but it looks like her best effort is short of the mark of what it will take to get the job done in this spot; Castellano has been her regular rider and he's aboard Watsdachnaces in here.

Atlantic's Smile

She's been in good form lately but she's going to need to step up with an effort that is much better than anything she's done so far in order to get the better of this field while making her first start against stakes competition; looking toward others.

Watsdachances (IRE)

She's tough to ignore while dropping out of the graded stakes ranks for the first time in a long time and she ran well in a G1 in her latest outing; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 10/14 going 1m over turf in a 200k stakes with a 91 Beyer; Castellano has won with 60 of 206 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Frosty Bay

Multiple stakes winning New York-bred miss has been on top of her game lately, and it looks like the addition of blinkers has been a key; however, this has to be considered a difficult step up in class for her; others entice more.

Teen Pauline

She was G1 stakes placed racing over dirt as a 2-year-old and she's done some nice work since being stretched out in distance and placed over turf three starts ago; she looks like the stronger of the two Pletcher-trained fillies in here.

Believe in Charlie

She produced a career best performance while making her first start for this barn in her latest outing, but she does appear to be better off sprinting than routing, and this is a serious step up in class for her; viewing her as being an early pace factor only.

Mariel N Kathy

She's a stakes winner over turf but feel that she's going to need to see a slow early pace develop to have her best chance, and it looks like there's enough early speed signed on to prevent that from happening; going to give the nod to others.

Maximova

Lightly raced filly was pretty impressive in her first three starts and she might be ready to bounce back from a sub par performance after being given some time off; this is a top turf barn that is very capable of having one ready to fire off of a layoff.

With Sugar On Top

She put together a really nice late run to get the job done at Saratoga three races back, but that level of performance hasn't been the norm for her, and she hasn't been able to get much going in her two most recent races; Ortiz has won with 20 of 91 (22%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Sense to Compete

Half-sister to G3 winner Lady Digby (4-15, 323k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 279k) really hasn't run a bad race from four starts, but a case can be made for her being a little bit sharper racing over a synthetic surface than she is over turf.

Cat's Holiday

She's an interesting option to consider in here as she's flashed real ability at times and she's had her share of excuses along the way as well; she made it look very easy in her latest start and the third place finisher from that race returned to win next out at Pen on 10/25 going 1 1/16m vs. 25k OPC's with an 80 Beyer.

Majestic Marquet

Teen Pauline might prove to be tough to deal with if this race has to be moved to the main track, but when looking at the overall lack of dirt form in this race, this will still be a decent spot for this miss to land in; multiple stakes placed miss will likely be a tough one to keep out of the mix.-Brian Pochman

Race 8

Inimitable Romanee

Plenty of close calls the past year or so though remember, those came vs. NY-breds - she's dealing with open foes today so the water is deeper; at least none of the really big gals are here but it's still a tougher spot and after 6 straight good races she did toss in a bit of a clunker last time; lone win over winners came, again, vs. NY-breds, and more than 16 months ago.

Anjaz

2nd in the Waya at SAR but you could make the case she might have been best as she had nowhere to go for a full furlong from the 1/4 pole to the 1/8 pole, and once she did find room she moved through nicely; good G2 2nd to Tannery (now a G1 SW) at BEL in the spring shows she's got quality, and surely this distance is no issue.

Aigue Marine (GB)

Looked like a comer last year when she was a sharp 3rd in this race and then a smashing winner at GP in March; alas, she was then 7th in GP's G3 Orchid March 30 and hasn't been seen since; something must have gone amiss that day but it's nice to see Clement brings her back in a tough spot like this and surely her big 3rd in this last year shows she's got the necessary oomph to win this - so long as whatever sent her to the bench for so long hasn't taken a step or 2 away from her.

Tabreed (GB)

Fine 3rd in a MTH stakes Aug. 24 shows some quality but it was her next start, at KEE Oct. 16, that caught the eye; she was far back early but finished full of run to not only win, but win easily, going away; sure, the water is deeper today and it's a new distance but the way she's finished up in her last few races say the trip is within her reach, and the way she stormed home at KEE says she has the quality to be plenty scary here.

Left a Message

Solid 2nd in the Dowager at KEE at this same trip Oct. 20 stamps her a proven commodity; it's her first time here, yes, but hey, she's run well on TAM sod, GP sod, KEE sod, DMR sod, BHP sod, AP sod and WO sod so odds are she'll handle this place; her only 2 tries at this trip may have been the 2 best efforts of her career, too.

Strathnaver (GB)

Won 3 of 5 starts since coming to the U.S. from England; included in that was a win in the G3 Bewitch at KEE at this trip in the spring, so you know she handles this game; freshened since game win at LRL Sept. 21 when she edged the very nice Shug filly Abaco and that was a big bounce-back after a very dull run in AP's G3 Modesty the race prior.

White Rose

Progressed to the point Mott felt good enough about her to take a swing at the G1 Flower Bowl at BEL Sept. 28 and she was just 8-1 that day in a tough race; chased the pace but gave way so those waters proved too deep; this surely looks like a much better level and a return to her prior form puts her in the mix, though these are still some tough gals and she's in uncharted waters in terms of distance; but hey, Mott's not in the Hall of Fame because he puts his horses in the wrong spots, right?

Sheppard's Pie

0 for 6 on turf, but at least there are 3 2nds; still, could be this isn't her preferred game and she's hooking some gals who view this surface, and this distance, as their specialty; her only try at this game came in the Dowager at KEE last time out (Oct. 20) and she was a non-factor 6th; if anything, this spot is tougher; do note she won her only prior wet-track start so should by some chance this come off, well, that might be her best shot.-Michael Hammersly

Race 9

North Star Boy (IRE)

Form tailed off after 1st-two USA races were sensational; reunites with the sizzling-AQU win rider; 50 days off since outfinished going this far in Maryland but upset Adirondack Dancer 3-back right off a similar layoff and gets the rematch at AQU; saves ground then makes one run.

Selection Sunday

Exits his worst finish since August, 2012; posted a November, 2011, career-debut win in a 65K maiden claimer at today's distance on AQU grass rallying from 5th; another rider change 1st-time Luzzi off the 1st off the board finish of 2013; must show more.

Mr. Jenney

50 days since the maiden breaker when ovecoming widest-post 11 to post his 3rd straight-new Beyer speed figure Top; 1st time facing winners is often any runner's toughest assignment; won with 4 weeks between races and the main knock is his June-fresh race was a career-low speed figure.

Idle American

Another runner who's produced a victory on AQU grass at today's distance; is here off 5 straight off-the-board finishes and is winless nearly 1 year since taking his 3rd of 4 on the AQU lawn; 5%-winning fresh trainer off the 36-day layoff with a slow workout suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Our Emerald Forest (IRE)

Scored from just off the pace to graduate at today's distance class tested vs. winners for the 1st time today; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 86 Beyer; stamina appears the biggest issue as he has often flashed-gate speed then tired.

Finn's Quest

Has to fend off Adirondack Dancer to make the lead; turf debut was not his best race and has been more of a late runner during career but went right to the front 1st time in a new barn; the 2-back winner repeated in a PRM-60K event with a 96 Beyer; view as a pace presence for part.

Fortify

Easiest spot since the debut; his sire is 45-for-472 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 0-for-2 on the grass finishing 6th twice in 2 MSW races; her 2 foals to race on grass were 0-for-4 combined; clearly the connections had high hopes running in UAE vs. the winner who repeated in a 1M-dollar race; the 2-back show runner Beyered 69 in his next-out GP-optional-claiming win; the 3-back runner-up won his next 2 races in G3s and just took the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (105).

Alarmed Ndangerous

Consistent sort his last bad race was June, 2012; curiously the win riders land on Fotify and Adirondack Dancer for this; has never been better from a Beyer perspective but late runner does not get a hotly-projected pace on turf up front to rally into and had a case of seconditis in 3 other AQU grass starts; figures to be closing well in deep stretch.

Jonrah

Badly overmatched in latest posting his worst finish ever at long odds; just one other race on AQU geass was an April, 2012, dull effort when easily handled by Idle American; late runner is another closer who does not project to get a hot pace flow to rally into.

Adirondack Dancer

Seems the one to catch in this fairly paceless-turf event; 11 weeks since a game win at today's distance; his 3-back Mile romp is a field-best Beyer performance; 1-for-1 on AQU grass graduating at today's distance off a similar layoff; defeated the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 82 in his next-out SAR-optional-claiming win; a lot to like.

Image of Disco

57 days since posting his lowest 2013 Beyer when catching a wet-turf course which he hasn't handled since his AQU-MSW win at today's distance in 2011; won right on the lead 2 back and with the light-weight assignment figures to chase Adirondack Dancer to the front.

Reaching Out

Main Track Only entry off the 5-week layoff following last 2 races where he beat 1 runner home; working well for this; he won right on the lead on AQU dirt and would hope with the light-weight assignment that he would be part of the pace for this.

Freeride

MTO stretches back out after rallying at 6F like he would love 1 Mile; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who graduated next out in a PRX-MSW with a 78 Beyer; figures to be a lot tighter 2nd time back off the nearly 5-month layoff; won right on the lead so figures to be forwardly placed for this.

Springcourt

MTO posted a career-best Beyer in the slop and is doing the rain dance for this; exits 2 fast-track wins when rallying from last which was even better because he overcame altering course to score; hopes the pace players fall apart late.

Indy Sea

MTO is 1-for-1 on dirt and that was on a wet-main track; the barn has a strong ROI with turf-to-dirt starters; faded in recent grass races and the dirt race he won was an event washed off the lawn; off his 2nd-lowest Beyer ever will be seeking the winner elsewhere.

Make Your Move

MTO leaves a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good win angle; won going this long in the slop to graduate but has been best in sprints during career; the workout for this was not very enticing; off the 8-week absence will be taking a wait and see approach.-Art Gropper