Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 8, 2013

Race 3

Bileaps and Bounds

First 5 starts weren't very pretty but all came vs. straight maidens; then, a layoff, return to dirt and most importantly, the move in for a tag, brought about a big move forward at BEL last month as she ran 2nd; sure, she was no threat to a big winner but she finished 9 clear of 3rd; worked well since; 2 sibs to race are Bounding Bi (6 wins, $333K, multiple SP) and Leaping Lady (2 wins, $97K).

Today Not Tommorow

Tough to build a case; filly has been no factor in 3 starts; in her defense, all came vs. NY-bred straight maidens, 3 of those on turf and 3 of her 4 routing; so, now comes the most important drop in the game and she gets blinkers; trouble is, she's yet to show any real talent; 2 of 3 sibs are winners including Tanqueray Time (7 wins, $58K).

Moonstone Beach

Sire Disco Rico gets over 9% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 9 of 17 for $532K, was multiple SW including 2 G3s, also G2/G3 SP; dam's 4 foals are winners including Hillbilly Junction (8 wins, $85K) and Medford Junction (3 wins, $122K); dam was off board in 2 starts for nearly $2K; some snazzy works hint at talent.

Dakota's Pick

Sire Oratory gets over 9% debut winners; sire won 3 of 5 (2nd in the 2 losses) for $189K, won G2 Peter Pan; dam's 4 foals to race are winners including Seek On (2 wins, $65K, SP); dam won 8 of 34 for $109K, SP; been working steadily; still, you're leery when they're a 6yo (almost 7yo) getting to the starting gate for the first time.

Cheer the Chick

Sire Salute the Sarge sds; sire won 4 of 12 for $346K, was multiple SW out West including a G2 and G3, also 2nd in G1 Del Mar Futurity and G1 Norfolk; dam's 2 foals to race are Jaw Crusher (2 2nds in 4 starts, $45K, SP) and Gridley Here (1 win, $51K); dam won 1 of 2 for $11K; plenty of works hint at a foundation, and that bullet :36B at BEL Sunday hints at speed.

Sixwinesfriendly

Sire Friendly Island sdf; sire won 8 of 19 for $1.3 million, was multiple SW including a G2, also 2nd in G1 BC Sprint, G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, 3rd in G1 Forego; dam has 3 winners from 4 foals to race including Too Tough Pete (13 wins, $289K, SW, SP); dam won 3 of 9 for $95K, was twice SP; full steady tab says there's a foundation here, though it's a tad worrisome she worked Aug. 16 but not again until Sept. 23.

Race 4

Evidently

Light breeze pattern for this filly, daughter of G1 winner Smart Strike who banked 337K (his offspring have scored in 114 out of 784 debuts); the dam won 4 of 14 and 150K; winning siblings include 136K earner Presumptive.

Predicate

Considering the lengthy speed duel, that was a solid effort a month ago when attempting this distance for the first time; earned a personal best Beyer in that showing and can upgrade even further if the early fractions are softer; playable.

Julie Napp

Stayed within range in her maiden voyage last month, a race which featured quick early splits; her sire is multiple champion Curlin who amassed 10.5 million; the dam was a G3 winner who notched 149K; this is her only foal to compete.

My Surfer Girl

Adds blinkers after dull first run; her sire won multiple G1 stakes on the NYRA circuit while the dam went 5 for 24 earning 185K; among the winning siblings is 73K earner Windsurfer; note improvement to the latest half-mile breeze.

Tizarocket

Held well when pinned to the rail in the latest pace battle; her sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million; the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 26K earner Im a Classy Cat; should handle extra distance today.

Lexi Morgan

Two fair showings at different distances thus far; her sire won a G1 and 480K; the dam won 1 of 4 and 36K; winning siblings include 513K earner Hudson Steele; draws comfortable stalking post and is one of the main contenders.

State Visit

Useful first effort when rallying for a minor award; her sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; the dam never made it to the starting gate and this is her sole foal to start; should be within range of an easier early pace this afternoon.

Flatbow

Made a solid middle move in her debut before tiring in the final furlong; her sire was a G2 victor who netted 725K; the dam was without a victory in 6 attempts; winning siblings include 461K earner Lime Rickey.

Premura

A beaten chalk at the distance, she certainly had a legitimate excuse in that performance; her sire won multiple G1s and 3.06 million; the dam won 3 of 28 and 120K; among the winning siblings is 38K earner Speechify.

Race 5

Encode

He ran a big race coming off a lengthy layoff and the horse he beat won his next start in a one-mile MSW race at Belmont Oct. 26; just one work since he ran is a concern but he is in very good hands and McLaughlin has solid stats in all the relevant categories; this guy is a half-brother to Grade 1 winning sprinter Justin Phillips plus 3 other Graded winners including full-brother Algorithms so there could be plenty of upside potential; the pick.

Start Jumping

First half of the Jacobson entry just missed in his latest and he may have bounced after posting a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in his previous race; he won both of his races from a stalking position and the shape of this race could work in his favor; if he can come close to his previous race he's probably the winner; big shot.

Malachite

Nothing but solid efforts in his three sprints and the horse that romped in his lone try at a middle distance won the Grade 3 Withers and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby before finishing third in the Kentucky Derby; the layoff is a concern but the past five years Donk has a respectable 15% strike rate with horses returning in 180 days or more; exotics possibility.

Pass the Tap

Second half of the entry makes his first start since being claimed and the past five years Jacobson has a 21% strike rate running them back the first time; first time with winners is never easy but he's headed in the right direction and he's a half to Grade 1 Carter winner Swagger Jack and Grade 2 winner Tap Dance; there's also a good chance he'll move forward in his first start for Jacobson.

Able Baker Charlie

It took him quite a while to finally break his maiden and then he wasn't much of a factor in his first try with winners; it was a tougher field, though, and the horse that won the race remained undefeated with another sharp performance; his lack of speed in a race they probably won't be going too fast early isn't going to help him, however..

Stephen A

He's been away for a while but the past five years Zito is 2/11 (18%) with horses coming back in over a year; he didn't beat much in his debut at Suffolk but there were a couple of decent runners in his second start; the fourth horse won a state-bred stakes in his next start and has won a couple of optional races since; 5 of 6 sibs are multiple winners the best being $394K stakes winner Gold Like U.

Lead Singer

Lone try on dirt in his debut wasn't bad and the first two horses came back to win their next start; nothing but turf routes since, though; horse that finished third in his latest won a $16K optional race with an 82 Beyer in his next start at the Meadowlands; the past five years Kimmell has a 13% strike rate with horses going from turf to dirt; not likely.

Race 6

Stone Rocks

Goes for a tag for the initial time with winners after offering little in his return from the brief freshening; colt doesn't have much speed so moving to the fence doesn't figure to benefit him and he's yet to run close to fast enough to win this; longshot again.

Velvet Cap

Moves back to his preferred footing after backing out of it across town in his second crack on the sod; gelding just missed with cheaper as the choice on the Spa main track in his last start on dirt and if he's able to run back to that one could prove pretty tough to handle; with the top pilot aboard for that one back in the saddle here he looks to be the one to beat.

Tricky Slam

Drops back to the level of his late running third place finish 2 back at Belmont after encountering some trouble against better at 7/8s; gelding often puts himself in a tough spot early so he'll need to get off to a better beginning from here, but he did break his maiden quite impressively the last time he stepped on the local main track; consider.

Jumpinofftheedge

Hood goes on this lightly raced sophomore for his first start off the claim by an outfit that hasn't saddled a recent winner with this type; he has been given some time since the last out fade and last week's breeze suggests he's better for it, but his lone solid effort came first out and he's yet to show he's a good fit with winners.

Whatabouthonor

Goes for a tag for the first time for a barn that does a nice job with its runners second off the break; colt breezed well at Belmont last week for his local debut and the wide trip may just have been too much for him to handle; looks to fit better at this level and can have a bigger impact today.

Pass the Pico

Took to the new blinkers in breaking his maiden 2 back at Churchill but didn't have much of a say in his first with winners on the Spa lawn; the return to dirt should help and his speed will likely have him in the thick of this one from the bell.

Kid Blast

Statebred steps out of the restricted ranks for the initial time in this spot; he worked well the other day for his first start since Saratoga and he does have a nice effort over the track in him; he's another whose speed should get him involved early and he does get a weight break for his return, but stamina remains the question.

Denzel

West Coast grad makes his first start here for a new outfit that excels with this type; he'll tackle winners today and his last out number wasn't much, but he did show he's capable of tracking from a wide spot which could help him in here and he did run a number on synthetic last year that fits with these; worth a look for an outfit that's gotten off to a nice start here.

Stonely the Lonely

Made the lead from the inside draw when dropped to this level with shades added last time but didn't have enough left for the drive; colt broke his maiden from a tracking spot over the inner earlier in the year and maybe the move to an outside slot helps settle him down some here.

Midnight Music

Outside drawn sophomore makes his first start off the claim after offering little in his return from the freshening at the level; colt did breeze well the other day for this and he showed solid tactical foot earlier in the year; can't be overlooked.

Race 7

Photon

Big race right off the 101-day layoff posting his best Beyer speed figure since November, 2012; the addition of blinkers for the 1st time in career in last clearly helped the cause but can he come close to firing back to that effort today with 35 days between starts; owns his career-best Beyer over today's oval at longer; getting up in time is the biggest issue.

Rein King

Best Beyer was accomplished racing on a wet-main track while frontrunner exits his lowest 2013 speed figure when fading off the long layoff; the 2-back show runner Beyered 96 in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming win; beat the 3-back show finisher a next-out 87 speed figure BEL-optional-claiming victor; view as a pace presence for part.

Willy Beamin

Winless since the summer of 2012 while way off best form in last 3 races; switches barns off the trailed-throughout running line off a 131-day layoff; the 2-back winner repeated in a SAR-95K stakes with a 103 Beyer; the 3-back winner which was his last start on AQU Main in a Grade 3 scored right back in an AQU-73K event with a 98 speed figure.

Joan's Choice

104 days away for a 9%-winning fresh trainer; has not raced this short of a distance since July, 2011, when fading to finish 4th in a 6F dirt start; owns a co-career-best Beyer at longer but it occurred fresh over today's AQU-Main oval; lacked stamina in the pre-rest defeats; must show more.

Bet the Power

March was his last race traveling at least this far while claimed off a sharp DEL win beating the show finisher who Beyered 88 in his next-out PEN-optional-claiming win; super 1st-off-the-purchase barn also nails high-win marks with fresh runners; he is coming off a 43-day layoff for this; 1st time racing in New York so has to answer some class questions but is here in top form.

Ground Force

Positive 5-pound weight swing off the head loss to Photon in last; projects as a force from bell to finish; owns his best Beyer over today's oval while re-claimed by the trainer seemingly just for AQU Main where he snapped an 0-for-7 with his April win here; the 2-back runner-up finisher looks better since the winner repeated in a BEL-optional-claiming with a 91 Beyer.

Haverhill

Seems set for a perfect trip today sitting just off the inside speed; exits his best Beyer since April when narrowly getting up in time while 7F seems like it should be an ideal distance for him; has not done much wrong in his conventional-dirt attempts; a lot to like.

Tujoes

160 days since latest where he beat 1 runner home posting his lowest Beyer since July, 2011; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 81 in his next-out PRX-starter alw. win; is another who has never raced on the New York circuit with class questions to answer; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Metaurus

Winless over the AQU Main but his last start here in April was a solid-show finish at longer; way off best form in recent races and having a rough 2013 winless in 14 starts; his best Beyer of the year was at longer; the 3-back runner-up finisher posted a 93 speed figure in his next-out SAR-optional-claiming win then repeated with a 95 capturing an IND-103K event.

Race 8

Ravalo

He looms the stalking half of the entry; runner got his last furlong in :12.40 last time; Jacobson off the claim in last, what else is new?; he has strung wins together numerous times in his career and any horse that can win 18 of 55 is a friend of mine; show horse in the shore finale 4 back cashed in a $51K Delaware stakes next out; the winner 6/8 won twice since, the last in a $16K optional; trainer can keep them going good once they get good; repeat well within the realm.

Royal Currier

Did that nose win in the Drone last year just knock the starch out of him?; could be as he has not been able to close the deal since; gelding has lost ground in the lane in every race this year but the 9/21 winner cashed next out in a $50K Charles Town stakes; not sold on chances.

Power World

Respect his speed but there are others with designs on the top here; fully extended in the win two back at this trip and he has that Contessa rival to deal with right back among others; needs a rebound effort today to hold off all comers.

Reload

Only out of the money once at this distance; colt lost all chance when he clipped heels in the last effort; versatility could be his best asset as he can be close up and perform or come from pretty far off the pace; last angle to think about: this rider was up for the last score.

My Adonis

Respect barn but the last win was going longer against only 4 foes; this race is a whole different animal; considering the cut back, even though he is fresh, he could find himself behind the 8 turning for home; things will need to break just right.

Farhaan

Colt must prove it on dirt; pushed along in last but he may be better served settling and making the one run; note he did beat maidens at this trip on grass; the winner of the Newmarket finale beat 10 in Dubai next out, then ran out of the money; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Majestic Hussar

Colt has tried stakes foes half of his career; he has trained forwardly for this including the local bullet on the 21st; soph handles any kind of going, is proven at this demanding distance, is proven fresh, and love the fact he has speed but doesn't need the lead to win; 4th finisher in last took a $100K Santa Anita stakes next out and the place horse took the Grade 3 Bold Ruler next out with a gaudy 109 Beyer; look out.

Love to Run

Needed slop and 4 rivals to post the lone victory this year; gelding was losing a little ground late in best local result and that race was a sixteenth of a mile shorter; runner has a few things to iron out it seems.

Praetereo

Nothing wrong with 2 for 1 action; bothered at bit at the break in the last 3, his speed may have been dulled in the last route but he was inching toward the winner the last time at this trip; Cohen has had good success for this barn but he will need to time the rally to perfection today.

Night Maneuver

Proven at this trip, but not at the Big A; pinballed against the gate last time, toss it; runner has much more speed than he just flashed and is drawn where rider will not have to gun at all costs early; the 8/23 winner validated that score in the Hudson; the concern: Empire-bred may need own kind and slightly softer to show top talent.

Race 9

Gambling Geraldine

Maybe her new connections feel that she deserves another chance to see what she can do over turf but it's tough to back her recent form, especially while stepping up in class after a 20k claim; viewing her as a possible early pace factor only.

Elusive Rumour

Multiple stakes placed filly ran well off of a layoff in her latest outing and like to see Castellano aboard again as he's won with 48 of 163 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013; her best effort makes her a threat, and she commands respect based on connections alone.

Marcy

Her best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to make an impression on these and she's yet to post a 1-2 finish from eight turf starts; she looks like more of an outsider.

Palace Dreams

Really like what she showed us in her first three starts but she has disappointed in her two most recent races; maybe the time off can prove to be a key for her and feel that this is a favorable spot for her return to action; Ortiz does get his share of live calls from this barn.

Jitney

Three of her last four starts over turf have been decent performances but this multiple stakes placed miss appears to be much more comfortable sprinting than routing, so the added distance she sees today is a concern.

Double the Energy

Consistent performer has won with eight of 20 lifetime, including five of 11 over turf, and even though she's unproven at today's one mile distance, it doesn't appear that a mile is beyond her limitations; have to respect her chances while going out for a barn and rider that team up with success.

Broadway Music Gal

She deserves a lot of credit for recording back-to-back wins to begin her career, and that includes a start over turf at second asking; however, she is stretching out in distance for this and note the presence of C.V. aboard another in here; her dam won three of 14 turf starts for 87k.

Atlantic's Smile

He's been well backed since his career debut, and not only has he run well in four of five turf starts, but he's three-for-three in the quality start department since adding blinkers; he does lose the services of Castellano to another in here, but he has the look of a top contender.

Princess Mara

Like to see that he's gotten the job done in two of five turf attempts, but he benefited from an easy early lead in both of those wins; the early pace in here figures to be lively, and that might prove to be enough to prevent this one from getting the job done.

Caribean Beat

If she can regain the form she displayed in her first two starts of the year, she can have a say in the outcome, and perhaps the assignment of Rosario is a sign that her connections feel that she's going to show up with a sharp try.

Strike Accord

He had been settling for minor awards prior to a sharp winning performance after a layoff in his latest outing, and this looks like a logical next step to take; she has plenty of turf in her pedigree and maybe that latest win can serve as a confidence builder.

Adriatic Dream

Late running type is stakes placed racing over turf and she enters this race after earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in her latest outing; given the likliehood of a fats and contested early pace, she might be making some noise through the lane.

Motion Lounge

There are a few horses in the main body of this race who have shown the ability to put together a decent effort over dirt and it looks like this filly will need to produce a career best performance to get the job done; Luzzi has won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Kelli Got Frosty

She's had some success from three starts racing over the main track here and she might be ready to give a good account of herself after running well in her first start back from a layoff in her latest outing; stakes winning miss will have the look of a top contender if this race has to be taken off the turf.

Royal Suspicion

She hasn't run all that well in two starts over the main track here, but that was early on in her career and her form has clearly improved since that time; as long as she can maintain the form she's displayed at Mth and Prx, she can have a say in the outcome.

Ah Gaga

Three of her last four dirt starts have been decent performances but she looks like another who is going to need to show up with the sharpest performance of her career to come out on top; maybe a minor award is within reach, but prefer to look toward others for the top spot.