Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 6, 2013

Race 1

Medea (IRE)

Irish-bred has been right there every time but she is stepping up to face multiple winners and she is still eligible for a nonwinners of two; horse that beat her in her North American debut won a $25K optional race with an 88 Beyer in her next start at Gulfstream; hard to knock her consistency; consider for the exotics.

Daylight Ride

This will be her first time running on this circuit and she this is clearly a tougher group than she beat in her win at Parx two back; easy to forgive her for not being a serious threat in the washed off Just a Kiss at Delaware in her latest and the past five years Sheppard has a 16% strike rate with horses going from turf to dirt; prefer others.

Moment in Dixie

That was a huge effort in her first try on turf and the horse that beat her came back to win another stakes at Belmont with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure; she's won going this far on the main track and she also came close to winning at 1 1/8 miles so the extra distance shouldn't be an issue; can see her taking a big step forward in her second try on the lawn and her nice work Oct. 27 adds to her appeal; the pick.

Malibu Yankee

She couldn't get it done as the chalk in her latest and didn't see any obvious excuses; the winner did get through along the rail but this gal had every chance to win and came up empty; this is a tougher spot and she loses Castellano to Deanallen'skitten; looking elsewhere.

Deanaallen'skitten

She's been away for almost two months since she finished third in a race restricted to non-graded stakes winners on turf at Saratoga and the horse that finished second won her next two including the race Moment of Dixie exits; Brown can obviously have them ready to roll coming off this type of layoff and this gal has fired fresh in the past; big shot.

Sally's Dream

Another solid effort in her latest where she couldn't get past Effie Trinket in the $200K Ticonderoga for NY-breds; the winner is a pretty nice 3-year-old filly that has won three of her last four in stakes races including one against open company; this gal has been right there in her last three and once again has to be thrown in the mix.

Sixth and Arch

She was stuck behind horses for a long time so her narrow win as the heavy chalk in a $25K starter race at Parx in her latest was better than it looks on paper; horse that beat her in the Mrs. Penny for Pennsylvania-breds in her previous start didn't show much in a NX3 allowance race at Keeneland in her next start; maybe for the exotics but that's about it.

Lady Cohiba

Main track only has an excellent record running over wet tracks including a front-running win in the washed off $150K Glen Falls two back; easy to forgive her for not being able to keep up in the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm in her latest but it is encouraging to see Clement wheel her back this quickly; looks like the one to catch and beat if she gets to run.

Welcome Guest

She could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle but it looks like she wants to be involved right from the start and she is probably going to have her hands full with Lady Cohiba who looks a bit quicker and has more proven class; nonetheless, she still has to be considered a major player if she gets to go. By Randy Goulding

Race 3

Five Star Momma

Did some real nice work in 2012 and to start this year, but things sorta leveled off from this spring to this summer - until Sept. 26 at BEL; she looked like a brand new filly that day, going right to the lead, opening up and lbasting some nice gals; very nice to see the class hike and if that's the true bill then she can awfully tough...though it was so much better than her norm you wonder if it was the just one of those days when everything went her way, that it was the exception and not the rule.

Ullapool

Had a very smart 2012, even earning a shot at the G1 Test; OK, so those waters were too deep but after that she won nicely at BEL over some gals; you had to be worried, though, as she wasn't seen for another 13 months; however, when she did come back at BEL Oct. 17 she came back breathing fire as she blasted a nice bunch; looked good as ever that day and there are seemingly no ill effects from that long layoff and whatever it was that sent her to the bench for so long.

Kiss in the Forest

Last 2 tries in August, at MTH, weren't too hot; they did come on turf, but you can't really blame that since she'd previously done well on turf; freshened since and it's nice to see Levine feels good enough about her to bring her back in a spot like this, and she's sure been working splendidly; still, she did sour in August, there is a layoff to consider, it's no easy spot and it's her first time on dirt to boot, so the hurdles are may and significant.

Love Contract

Tough to be too enthused; after a smashing N1X win at PRX in Dec. 2011 came a decent 3rd on the inner here in Jan. 2012 - but things have soured since; was no factor in 7 subsequent 2012 starts, was then gone 10 months and her 2 returns tries this summer/fall weren't pretty; at least there's no layoff but she isn't sharp and this spot is tougher than what she's been dealing with of late.

Cape Cod Carol

Been knocking on the door; good news is she has won over this track, and a couple nice recent 3rds at BEL show she's feeling good; has some versatility as she dueled and ran 3rd Sept. 18, stalked and ran 3rd oct. 4; bullet :47.60B Oct. 27 says she's feeling pretty darn good. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

In the Beat

Drops in for a conditioned tag while making his first start over the local main track off the brief freshening; gelding doesn't have much early foot so the move to the fence won't help him and he could be left with some work to do late; maybe for a share.

Herbal Prospector

Beaten Finger Lakes chalk makes his second start back from the break after coming up empty late over a wet track; gelding does have speed and an inside slot and the barn boasts a big strike rate with runners going second off the layoff; sheds some weight with the capable bug named and has to be considered.

Demon's Deputy

Didn't have much to offer in his return from the break, but he was facing better than he'll step against in this spot; both of his wins did come over the inner earlier in the year so maybe the return to this venue helps wake him up some and the slightly shorter trip could intensify his late kick a bit, but he has been rather dull of late and the barn's numbers second off the break aren't very encouraging.

Real Estate

He's shown speed against open claimers and he'll get off the rail after failing to break so well and finiding himself in a wide path in his Belmont finale; 9 year old's most recent score came 5 months back and he achieved it with the benefit of an easy lead which doesn't figure to present itself today.

Cactus City Road

Gelding drops in his first local spin after tracking and showing little late across town last month; nice to see Rosario take interest as he has ridden this guy in the past and this 4 year old does have some early foot, but he'll need to step things up to threaten late in here.

Tyrus

Churchill shipper ran evenly for twice this price off this outfit's claim last time and now he'll make his local debut; like all of these, he doesn't win often, but the numbers he earned at the trip this summer jump out and he's certainly capable of sitting within striking range of the leaders in this spot; with Lezcano taking the call he may prove to be the one to beat.

Crown the Chief

He's had little to off in the drive in his handful of starts since leaving here last spring off a solid runner up finish first off the barn's claim; 7 year old should be in the thick of this one from the bell but there's not much to suggest he'll have enough left to contend for a share of this one in the lane.

Running Tap

Ran ok for second money in his lone local start and now he'll try a softer set after offering little in the Delaware slop; maybe he's tighter with that return from the summer vacation behind him and he has shown solid early foot in the past, but his better efforts do come when he's allowed to have things his own way on the front end and don't know that he'll be able to enjoy that type of trip here.

Tatao's Widcat

Returns quickly while stepping up in price off another weak sprint try, this time in his local return Saturday; expecting he'll be close again early but he's clearly not the runner he was when victorious over the track last year and his recent starts don't suggest he can have an impact with these.

Dan and Sheila

Cuts back to sprint for a barn that is winless on the year; he'll switch to a solid journeyman pilot for this one and the class drop should certainly be to his liking; 6 panel trip is a question for this off the pace type, but he does figure to get honest fractions in front of him; contender should be coming hard late.

Equivocation

Fresh gelding has been idle since trying the Saratoga lawn without much luck in his first start off this barn's claim 2 1/2 months back; he's another who may be better going longer and from out here he may find himself in a tough spot from the bell, but if the pace backs up he can get involved for a piece. By Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Utopian Wife

Displayed improved early speed in her third attempt and tries claimers, and the main oval, for the first time; her sire won multiple G1s; winning siblings include 244K earner Won Great Classic; draws inside slot for a change.

High Inflation

Exacta recommendation despite 14 consecutive losses; she should be able to stay within range today behind some questionable pacesetters; nice blowout, and new barn, brightens her prospects; should rally in time for a major share.

My Lucky Lieu

Tries apprentice handling for the first time and has suffered through some unlucky trips in her brief career; latest training track breeze was only moderate, however; only attempt in a Big A main track sprint was against a weak group.

Lovely Bella

Showed unexpected early speed last time before stopping on a dime; did not fire in her sole appearance here and seems unlikely to be more than a minor pace presence; cannot endorse as a serious candidate.

Ellen Dorene

Only one defeat, a definite plus in a field such as this; her sire won a G3 route and 176K; the dam won 4 of 25 and 54K; winning siblings include 253K earner Natalie Victoria; blinker addition can help her focus and avoid drifting.

Myperfectvalentine

Set decent fractions in her last grass assignment; the trainer has done very well in the turf-to-dirt department and this filly, daughter of multiple champion Curlin, should improve as this is her first start below the purchase price; consider.

My Cousin Zinny

One of 3 in this line-up coming out of a fairly strong 35 grander in late September; she was the one chasing the leader early in that contest before retreating; not a ton of pace opposition on view today and she should benefit if speed has held well on the card.

Signora Sofia

Yet to finish in the money after all this time, she will be viewed as one of the rank outsiders now; the sole 4-year-old in this crew has shown little firepower regardless of surface or distance; lighter package today may not matter.

Exclusively Yours

Curious item in light of the expert trainer involved; the filly's versatile sire won multiple G3s and 413K while the dam won 1 of 4 and 26K; winning siblings include 17-time winner General Charley who amassed 545K; no doubt a short price again. By Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Saltine Warrior

His three starts over turf have been respectable performances, and he's eligible to bounce back with a sharper try while getting back over turf for this after being beaten as a favorite; however, it might be worth noting the presence of Ortiz aboard another in here.

Birchwood Road

He's shown the ability to produce a performance that is in the neighborhood of what it might take to win this event, but he is moving into a barn that has been quiet in 2013; certainly can't count him out of it, but it's probably a good idea to demand value in this direction before backing.

Native Singer

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam was a G3 winner while winning 4 of 14 starts for 150k, including 2 of 9 turf starts for 110k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Adirondack Dancer (4-11, 219k over turf); he has his share of appeal in his turf debut.

Chasintheblues

He hasn't run poorly in his two turf attempts, and he's out of a stakes placed dam who won 2 of 6 turf starts for 48k, and he's a 1/2 to stakes winner Dirge (6-15, 173k over turf); interesting to see Castellano get the call for this.

Sunnysider

He's been a pretty consistent performer and the 72 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest effort represents the best last race figure in this field; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

My Teddy Bear

Always tough to have confidence in horses that have hung around the maiden ranks for 15 starts, but he earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in his latest outing, and it's worth noting that he was making his first start for this barn.

Hidden Warrior

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 16 starts for 98k,including 0-for-2 over turf; he was much improved in his latest start and Ortiz has won with 23 of 78 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Post Pattern

Like to see the assignment of Lezcano, but he's another who is still trying to clear the maiden hurdle after many starts, and that just makes it difficult to give him a vote of confidence for the top spot; perhaps the addition of blinkers can prove to be a key, but he did wear them in his career debut.

Bob and Jim

His form has improved since being returned from a layoff two starts ago and feel that he deserves another chance to see what he can do routing over turf; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 10/19 going 6f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer.

Downgoesfrazier

All five of his starts this year have been strong enough to help give him a competitive look in this spot, and like to see that he's run well routing lately; maybe he's another who is planning on hanging around the maiden ranks for awhile, but going to respect him as a top contender against these.

Charity Reins

He had every right to need his latest start after a layoff, and if he can regain the form that he displayed back in April, he can make some noise in this spot; lightly raced 3-year-old can't be counted out of it.

Elroi

He's been well backed since his career debut and he looks like he fits right in with this group of maiden special weight rivals; the outside post isn't ideal, but he might be looking to drop right back from the break and make one late run.

Daddy Dont Preach

Son of solid turf influence Scat Daddy cost 110k as a 2-year-old, and he's eligible to be ready for a much sharper try at second asking with the addition of blinkers; he needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race to draw in, but he's worth keeping an eye out for.

Chang's Secret

He came up just a little bit short when upset minded in his latest outing and like to see that he ran that race while making his first start for this barn; he'll add to the competitive nature of this event if he draws in.

Onecats Chance

There's enough dirt form in the main body of this to make this a tough test for this gelding and he'll have to find a way to step up his game in a hurry to prove to be the one in this spot.

Cat Man Fu

He moves turf to dirt for his second start after a layoff, and if he can perform the way he did three races back at Belmont Park, he can give himself a chance to have a say in the outcome. By Brian Pochman

Race 8

Alwaysinmycircle

She gives up some recency to these as she has not started since August; on the flipside, she gets a shot with statebreds for the first time in a while; barn also removes blinkers, and that is a high percentage equipment change for Schettino; shows near bullet work in final prep for rare dirt start; one of several who can share.

Guyana Princess

She picks up more ground and suspect the added distance will be meaningful for runner whose best recent effort came over a mile and a sixteenth; faced higher-priced rivals last out, and also gets back to statebreds here for the first time since the summer; fires an improved race.

Nonnie Connie

She's a logical choice for her third-place finish against similar last out; in that race she finished a length behind Bit Bustin, who she must face again in this spot; adds blinkers and like that she has some experience over the main track at Aqu, finishing third in a stakes here last November.

Get Gorgeous

She's a fresh face as this will be her first start since June; the runner she was fifth to last out returned in her next start to take a $35K optional claimer at Bel with a Beyer Figure of 85; as for this one, she has been working regularly for her return, and is one to preview in the paddock.

Let Me Be Nuts

She's a winner at this one-turn mile configuration, and that is a meaningful credential as the distance can be a demanding one; faced winners for the first time last out and regressed some, which is not uncommon for horses, and looking for her to move forward for the experience; a drawback is that she must again face a few who finished in front of her, such as probable favorite Bit Bustin.

Bit Bustin

She's the logical choice here for her runner-up finish at this level last time, a race in which she finished in front of a few of these; like that she has natural speed, that she is a winner over the local strip, and that she owns the field's best last-race Beyer Figure; she's also placed in two stakes and is a half-sister to stakes winner Ihaveadate ($189K); choice.

Necessary Luxury

She showed improved speed last out on the move from six and a half furlongs to a mile and the fact that she can be closer to the pace than a number of these might give her a tactical advantage; she could get a tracking trip off of Bit Bustin; looks like a leading contender.

Porvoo

She exits a race that has become a key one, as the runner-up returned in her next start to take a $7,500 conditioned claimer at Med with a Beyer Figure of 67, and the third-place finisher, a $16K starter allowance, at Prx, with a Beyer of 68; this one's dam was a multiple stakes winner of $326K; makes rare main track appearance but has run well on dirt in the past; contender. By Mary Rampellini

Race 9

Miss McKeown

At least she is consistent, just not in a good way; miss lost a lot of ground in the drive the other time she went longer than 7 furlongs; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Tricky Tiffany

Boxcars every time and that will continue until she shows some semblance of belonging; backers can point to the fact there is a turf winner in the tree and 2 siblings banked 6 figures; beaten nearly 25 lengths the other time sent long; passing.

Creswell Bay

Beaten a nose for this very price at the shore in July but has not been able to duplicate that Beyer; not sure she was being beaten by anybody two back at Delaware; the winner that day has not raced back and is one just one for 16; would be careful here.

Flamingo Lane

Consolidator 6 for 90 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2 including G1 Lane s End, banked over $650K, was never on grass; dam out of the money twice; lone half sis to race Northeast Abbie was out of the money in all 3 starts; right there at the top of the lane, she has a right to flash more speed on the stretch out; at least she has not been whipped umpteen times.

Bargaining Table

Apparently not much of a work horse, but she was 7 clear two back; miss took overland route last time when tracked moderate splits and just never quickened; miss seemed on the verge after the June debut when she lost ground late but only bettered that Beyer once since; still rates look in weak field.

Tizallheart

Respect hot claim box item; toss debut when he ran off and toss the June swoon when the race came off the grass; over 3 clear last time and the race came back fine as the 7th finisher took a maiden $16K seller next out and the winner repeated beating $20K claimers with a 71 Beyer; can't fault those that give her another shot today.

Peggy Virginia

In good hands, signs of life in the 10/6 return then lost all chance in the marred race last time because of the fallen rival; she may have hated the slop in the debut too; place horse in the debut graduated next out in a maiden $35K claimer, has been in the money in 2 of 6 starts since; winner of the debut repeated in a $35K optional, lost next 4; dam was unraced; lone half bro to race Rockheaded took one sprint, was out of the money in only turf try; interesting.

Field Star

Even on the drop in the second start of the year the fans didn't bite to the tune of 30-1 and they were dead on the money; she could have just hated the off going though; trainer has spotted them find with limited starters; homebred has some things to iron out.

Left Uppercut

She has been whipped vs. softer and after hitting the canvas 18 times, the confidence in a turn around becomes fleeting; pushed every step of the way last time, got to figure rider again will put her into the race from the sound of the bell; will at least muddle the pace.

Sweetest Peach

Spotty race record is a concern as she has never been less than 13-1 on the board; backers got to scream for about 48 seconds in last and the she had to hail the cab; could see her pushing the issue, not sure she'll be around when they hand out the awards.

Bebes Passion

Brief speed on the double drop, now barn removes the shades; again outside the rival she just dueled with, it's probably a good sign she was keen to run early last time but after 19 starts, she is iffy at best.

See See See

Out of the money the last 4 times in this league, after 21 defeats, it's just hard to find the upside; guess somebody had to run 4th in the smallish field last time when she dropped; place horse 9/26 graduated next out in a maiden $16K claimer with a 67 Beyer; hustling bug got a chance to figure her out; long overdue.

Love That Kelly

Jersey-bred has teased seveal times; bothered at the break sprinting two back and the place horse that day graduated 9 days ago at Meadowlands in a maiden $10K claimer with a 62 Beyer; miss has more speed than she just flashed; legit player if she gets a shot to suit up.

Andromeda's Coming

Nothing but crazy 8s as results so far; he's taken little action and is looking at the same fate here; dam 2nd in only start; one of 3 siblings won once; that half sister, Jet On Home, beat maiden $25K claimers here in 2009 sprinting with a 58 Beyer; she did train decently in October; must hurry.

Jilted Tiara

Added Lasix after being eased but could only beat one to the wire last time; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the family; 3 banked 6 figures including stakes winner, 4 for 15 racer and over $160K earner Ms. Cat Princess; not sold on chances. By Brian Mulligan