Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 3, 2013

Race 1

Believeinfaith

A clear-cut second last time out and her latest training track breeze was solid; her sire won a G2 stakes and 530K; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 52K earner Funny Lady.

Mamdooha

Rallied late to capture the place in her shore debut and her latest blowout from the gate was upbeat; her sire won a G1 and 455K while the dam was without a tally in 5 attempts; this is her only foal to compete.

Sals Wonderfulgirl

Cooked in a speed duel in her initial attempt, she might get away with softer early fractions today and benefit; her sire won a G2 and 254K; the dam won 1 of 11 and 45K; winning siblings include 26K earner Magick Appeal.

Sacred Moon

Offspring of excellent sire Malibu Moon, who won 1 of 2 lifetime starts and 33K, have scored in 101 out of 711 debuts; the dam did not win in 2 tries; among the winning siblings is 77K earner Exchange Cat.

Hey Kiddo

Rallied well behind a blowout winner in her unveiling but now must cut back in distance; her sire won his only effort and 25K; the dam was 1 for 1 earning 11K; winning siblings include pure sprinter Jake N Elwood who banked 273K.

Likeuasafriend

Adds blinkers after that troubled second trip; her sire won 3 of 15 and 144K while the dam won 2 of 11 and 78K; among the winning siblings is 64K earner Forest Passage; one of several coming into this race with a superior recent workout.

Laura Golightly

Expert connections at the helm of this lass whose sire won a G1 en route to netting 616K (progeny of Indian Charlie have won 100 out of 619 debuts); the dam won 3 of 23 and 62K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Tiz So Sweet

Her sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million; offspring of Tiznow have won 44 out of 590 initial races; the dam won 5 of 10 and 302K; there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Race 2

Southbeachsandy

Makes his first start in 11 months after showing little against cheaper in the local slop; gelding hasn't done much in 4 career spins over the track and his works don't suggest he's on edge to return running; just watching the comebacker.

Ghostly Vision

Didn't have enough to go on late when turned back across town 5 weeks back; sophomore was sharp in a 2 turn score over cheaper upstate but his prior one turn route try behind some of today's foes was nothing special; prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

So Scott

Six year old is offered for the optional tag while making his first start since trailing most of the way in the Saratoga stake; he's been off his best game from a figure standpoint, but ran ok fresh here in the spring and owns numbers from earlier in the year that fit quite well in this spot; contender.

Suilleabhain

Switches surfaces while going first time for a new outfit in this spot; gelding did break his maiden sprinting in his lone crack over the local main track and he figures to be ok at this trip, but he's run a lot faster on the green than he has on dirt so far in his career.

Sound of Drums

Had some trouble in his return to this circuit a couple of weeks ago and came up short at the wire; gelding earned a big number 2 back at Finger Lakes but it came at 2 turns and he's failed run another number close to it; with a clean run maybe he contends for a minor share.

Seventy Six

Found himself in the worst part of the Belmont main track last time after offering little against stakes peers at 2 turns upstate; sophomore did win the last couple of times he tried the flat mile but he'll need to step things up to factor in here.

Smokin Candy

Switches surfaces for his first start off the claim by a barn that boasts some solid recent numbers with this type; his local spins haven't been much and the pace in front of him is a concern, but he packs a nice late kick when right and that could help him get in the mix for a piece of this one.

Modern Child

Outside drawn gelding stretches out for his local return after failing to threaten the winner in his eighth crack at this level; his most impressive effort on the page came on the stretchout to this flat mile trip and he did rally to get the place the last time he stepped on this track in the afternoon; he's had his share of chances, but is one to consider.

Race 3

Freddie Freud

Debut is a field-best Beyer speed figure when coming up short and will add a half furlong onto this event; moves all the way inside and the rail can be a tricky post position for any inexperienced runner; wish the worktab for this was sharper for a 1-for-21 second-start barn since 2012 and a 1-for-27 jockey-trainer combo; view as the one to catch.

Noble Cornerstone

Sire is 2-for-67 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 4-for-22 dam (78K) who produced 4 winners from 4 other foals to race including stakes-winner Proud Jefe (6-for-31, 174K); worked best on synthetic surfaces but races on dirt for today's unveiling.

Eye Luv Lulu

Brief speed in latest hoping 2nd-time out will improve both his stamina and finish; the 3F workout for this was not eye catching or a significant improvement upon his other works; view as a pace presence chasing Freddie Freud and Speed Read to the front.

Safari Samba

Sire is 11-for-120 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 3-for-8 SW dam (229K) who produced 2 winners from 4 other foals to race including G3-SW Agave Kiss (6-for-10, 339K); 3 straight bullet works and 4 on the tab since June; a dangerous prospect at 1st asking.

Loki's Vengeance

Sire is 3-for-19 with 2-year-old debut runners; is the 1st foal out of a 2-for-3 dam (29K); not easy to take the trainer's 1-for-22 mark with debut runners since 2012; mild worktab for 1st asking suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Roaring Nathanial

Sire is 2-for-54 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 3-for-48 dam (200K) who produced 3 winners from 3 other foals to race including 147K-earner Auric Girl (6-for-70); the trainer has not had a 1st-time starter since at least 2012.

Speed Read

On the lead in first pair but has Freddie Freud and Eye Luv Lulu to contend with early which may leave him with a wide-pace-pressing trip; mixed reviews from the worktab for this; the show finisher from last Beyered 65 in his next-out BEL-MSW win.

Freddie G

Expected a lot more from the 2-1 debut loss where he finished evenly giving the impression that he may be better suited for longer distances down the road; the barn hits with just 7% second-time starter winners while the postrace workouts are good but he worked even better before his 1st attempt.

Race 4

Franked

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to Tommy's Luck (3-15, 100k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 33k) and Distance Sky (1-10, 43k over turf).

Classic Sense

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and dam won once from 12 starts for 47k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 35k; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Handsome Mike (3-20, 908k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 71k); Castellano has won with 59 of 197 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Kid Cruz

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; Alvarado has won with 34 of 128 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Romans Paradise

Half-brother to stakes placed Local Celebrity (16-47, 289k, including 4 of 10 turf starts for 77k) was soundly defeated by today's rival Good Response in his latest outing; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 10/27 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with an 85 Beyer.

All Tied Up

His form has improved with the addition of blinkers and he looks like a decent fit with this group of maiden special weight rivals; he's a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Probation Ready (8-35, 289k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 72k); Velazquez has won with 84 of 302 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Strategic Keeper

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a stakes placed dam who won 4 of 17 starts for 154k, including 3 of 13 turf starts for 116k; one of two firsters signed on in here for the Brown barn.

This Guy Is Blue

Like to see what he did in his career debut but it would have been nice to have seen him build off of that performance at second asking, and he was beaten by today's rival Good Response in that race; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 10/27 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with an 85 Beyer.

Blast Away

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 16% of his turf starters, and multiple graded stakes placed dam won 4 of 14 starts for 203k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to G3 winner Defer (4-18, 260k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 136k).

Sycamore Lane

He's one of two in here for the Mott barn and he was much improved the second time around with the addition of blinkers; if he comes right back with the same level of performance, he figures to be in the hunt through the final furlong.

Good Response

This colt has a little bit of turf in his pedigree and he ran well in his turf debut at second asking; winner from that race returned to win next out at Bel on 10/27 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with an 85 Beyer; he merits top contender status.

Consistency

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and multiple stakes placed dam won 3 of 11 starts for 115k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Love's Blush (5-22, 299k); McIngvale-owned colt cost 75k as a yearling.

Race 5

Potosi's Silver

She has been flattered since her dominant maiden allowance win last out, with the sixth-place finisher from the race, Macaroon, returning to win another maiden allowance at Bel, with a Beyer Figure of 70, and the seventh-place finisher, Lemon Point, a $50K maiden claimer, also at Bel, with a Beyer of 70; this one is well-versed on the rail, as she has broken from the fence in all three of her starts; is a half-sister to Jehan, a stakes winner of $302K; gets rematch with Gracer.

Stonetastic

She was the favorite in the Grade 2 Pocahontas at CD last out on the strength of her 12-length debut win; was beaten just a half-length by Untapable, who was to start as a leading contender in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies run Saturday at SA; in addition, Pocahontas third-place finisher Rosalind was also in the Juvenile Fillies; shows some sharp works and appears to be a win candidate.

Divided Attention

She's the lone horse in the field proven at the one-turn mile trip, having won her maiden at the configuration at Bel; exits Frizette and note the winner, runner-up and fifth-place finisher from the race were all to have run back Saturday in the BC Juvenile Fillies at SA; further, the Frizette through Friday morning had produced two next-out winners: sixth-place finisher Tea Time came back to win the $95K Sharp Cat at Bel with a Beyer Figure of 78, and the seventh-place finisher, Recepta, the $100K Chelsea Flower, also at Bel, with a Beyer of 84; is a half-sister to Folklore, a past winner of the BC Juvenile Fillies; promising sort.

Gracer

February foal ran a respectable race in the Grade 2 Matron last out in her first start following a smashing maiden allowance win at Sar; can be closer to the pace here if the fractions are more reasonable than the ones she encountered last time; she also could be more prominent for the fact that she is stretching out in distance; dam was a runner, going 5-for-11.

Stopchargingmaria

She's the most accomplished member of the field as one who is multiple Grade 1-placed; was third last out in the Frizette, and note the winner, runner-up and fifth-place finisher from the race were to run back in the BC Juvenile Fillies on Saturday at SA; in addition, the Frizette through Friday morning had produced two next-out winners: sixth-place finisher Tea Time returned to take the $95K Sharp Cat at Bel with a Beyer Figure of 78 and seventh-place finisher, Recepta, the $100K Chelsea Flower, also at Bel, with a Beyer of 84; on a pedigree point, this one's dam was a two-time stakes winner who ran out $257K; has tactical speed and a tactical post; choice.

Derek's Girl

She was a commanding debut winner last out, when she rolled by eight lengths and was claimed; the race came at Del Mar so this will mark her first start on dirt; has had a chance to work at Aqu, and turned a bullet over the local strip Oct. 7; must move forward to knock off the likes of Stopchargingmaria.

Race 6

Mister Dooley

Gelding always showed the ability to pass horses but he took it to them on the front end last time and it worked; he lost his left front shoe and was running for purse money only in last and the 9th finisher returned to graduate next out; a bit more keen to drill on the 25th, cozy slot, can't be counted out.

Junior Officer

Runner did cash off a March to May layoff last year in a $20K N2L fray; proven at this level, but note the gap in published moves till 10/21; style kind of demands a hot pace and clear sailing; things have to unfold just right.

Saturday Appeal

He has had numerous chances at this level; decent speed in last and he has handled off going; runner that got DQ'ed on 7/29 won next out in a $20K optional, ran 2nd twice after that win; if you figure he needed the last race, you can make a case for a move forward; like the fact he has natural speed but can settle just off the pace and perform; don't ignore.

Jack's R Wild

Dealer's choice on the cut back in last and some like this kind of play figuring the runner now has a confidence builder under his belt; that can be a slippery slope though; the 9/13 winner did win in this very league next out with an 85 Beyer; would lean toward watching a race vs. winners.

Crafty Dreamer

Only the one win, but like the Beyer progression and he proved he fits in this league last time; only one off effort and that was with a bothered start off a long layoff; he can be closer up this time if in the mood; contender, far from a cinch.

Stopthefever

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 16 of 31; 9/21 place horse cashed next out in an N2R allowance at Finger Lakes, then ran out of the money; he could be on the cheap side as his claiming wins have been after lower-priced foes; note place horse in last was well clear; must respect everything from this barn.

Charlie's Punch

Nice effort in this league in June but he has not been able to duplicate that effort; he did get a boost when the place horse 8/10 cashed next out at this level with a 92 Beyer; former rider bails for the rail rival; lean toward watching one here.

Comandante

Nearly 4 clear in last and the route may have helped the stamina; he has more speed than he flashed in last and note he was getting late in the lone victory; 2nd best of 55 drill in the resume; can't fault those that give him another shot today.

Alcolite

A couple of slices since the inner dirt route win; note he got away with the pedestrian splits in the lone score; hard to be overly positive after the last fiasco.

Sinistra

Checked two back, runner never raised a gallop in last and maybe he hated the inside; he did graduate on the stretch out but it was off the layoff; would look elsewhere for a key top horse.

Summer Place to Be

Patiently placed after hooking clear winner; note this guy was nearly 4 clear of the show horse; love the spacing of the return drills, Dutrow has spotted them just fine all year and this soph should sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; he looks live today.

Petrocelli

Stalked to no avail in this league last time in a decent try; he did something in the shore finale you don't see everyday and that's come back on to win after losing the lead; and the show horse 9/2 won next out in a $30K N2L claimer, then repeated in a $16K optional at Calder with a 77 Beyer; another slice?

Race 7

Raglin River

Sunriver rates poor as a turf sire, and even though this gelding hasn't run badly in his five turf starts, he's going to need to step up with his best effort to date if he's to prove to be the one in this spot.

Sonnyandpally

Not wild about his 1-for-19 career mark and he's been beaten by a number of today's rivals in his recent races; winner from latest won next out at Bel on 10/25 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 35k OPC's with an 84 Beyer.

Grahamandwithers

Stonesider is another poor turf sire being represented in here, but this gelding was sharp in breaking his maiden over turf two races ago, and perhaps he'll be ready to bounce back with a sharper try in his second attempt against winners.

Uncle Mitcho

He put together a couple of decent performances two and three starts ago, but he has been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his recent races, and his overall form isn't as appealing as a number of other starters in here.

With Exultation

Nicely bred gelding has burned up a lot of money in his four starts against winners, but he's clearly a contender in this event, and as long as he gets some early pace to run at, he's likely to be moving in on them through the lane.

Here Comes Tommy

He cleared the maiden hurdle while making his second start back from a layoff in his latest outing, but he was favored to get the job done in that race, and he finds himself in a much tougher spot this time around.

Lord of Love

He's run pretty well in his four starts this year and like to see the effort he produced over this turf course and at today's distance at about this time last year; at the very least, he merits consideration underneath in the exotics.

Toy Cannon

Since getting the job done against 25k maiden claimers at second asking, this gelding has had trouble getting over the top through the stretch in his races; however, he's clearly fast enough to run with these and has to be respected as a contender; Alvarado has won with 34 of 128 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Barnards Galaxy

He's not out of the question on a top try and his connections might be thinking he's going to bounce right back after a sub par performance as they see fit to call upon Castellano for this; note that he's two-for-two over the Aqueduct turf.

Orino

Relatively lightly raced 3-year-old is an unofficial stakes winner, and not only has his recent form been in line with what it will take to win this, but his best races are still eligble to be in front of him; he has to be careful to avoid an early pace dispute, but he's a legitimate player.

Hidden Vow

He's been on top of his game lately, and even though he might be the type who is very content to settle for a minor award, he's shown that he's plenty fast enough to compete with these.

Papa Freud

He's another in here with just a single victory after 19 starts and he was beaten by a few of today's rivals in his latest outing; maybe a minor award is within his grasp, but going to look toward others for the top spot.

Captain Gaughen

Not really sure what to make of this multiple stakes placed runner at the moment as he ran some nice races over turf earlier in the year, but he just hasn't been anywhere near as sharp in recent starts; he'll be worth playing around with if he gets overlooked in the wagering.

Cincinnati Kid

Like some of the things he did racing over turf early in his career, and even though he had every right to need his latest start after a long layoff, it would have been nice to have seen him show more; it might be best to make him show signs of coming back around before backing.

Slimshady

Feel that his best race is short of the mark of what it will take to get the job done in this spot and this late running type will probably need to see a complete pace meltdown to have a chance at making some noise through the lane.

Gamblin Fever

He's another late running type who will need to see a lot of pieces fall into place to find himself in with a chance through the stretch; not going to be surprised if he lands a minor award, but going to give the nod to others for the top spot.

Race 8

Louisiana Flyboy

Has not raced past 6F; sire won the Kentucky Derby; dam won her only dirt route in an LAD-30K claimer; impressive-debut win considering he was troubled at the start then drew off at the end; beat the 4th and 5th-place finishers from last who posted 63-43 Beyer speed figures in next-out LAD-MSW and $12,500-maiden claiming wins.

Intense Holiday

The maiden victory looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 66 in his next-out PRX-MSW win; was badly overmatched in latest when middle moving and is shooting high again; his 31%-win trainer since 2012 adds to the appeal.

Financial Mogul

Has not raced past 7F; sire never raced past 7f or raced on anything but a synthetic surface; dam finished 3rd in a PEN alw. in her only dirt route; the wet track aided in the 2-back maiden romp but has plenty to prove still on fast footing.

Tiznowforamerica

Did not give the impression in latest that going long was his cup of tea although clearly off the 2-back front-running win he wants the lead; the debut winner (now 2-for-2) and the runner-up both won next out in BEL-G2 and SAR-MSW evnts with 94-83 Beyers.

Awesome Wildcat

Has not raced past 5.5F; sire's only dirt route was a 9th-place finish in the G1 Met Mile; dam was unraced but her sire was a classic winner; defeated both the 5th and 8th-place finishers from last who Beyered 67-66 in next-out PRX-MSW and $12,500-maiden-claiming wins;

Noble Moon

Has not raced past 6F; sire did not race past 5F; dam won 2-of-6 dirt routes; shocked the world in the debut win; the workouts for this do not entice however must note the barn's super 32% win mark among juvenile runners since 2012.

Jose Sea View

Has not raced past 6.5F; sire took G2s on both turf and dirt at 9F; dam was a stakes winner at 1M and 1-16th on dirt; switching surfaces is clearly a major issue and the fact that he went frontrunning to win both races and may end up pressing the pace for this.

Master Lightning

1st-time Johnny V a 31%-win rider for the trainer; had to like the way he rated from just off the pace to graduate; plenty of upside with troubled trips in 1st pair now hoping to move way up in class to race as well; his Beyers are lighter than many of these so that is the main concern.

Protonico

Has not raced past 6F; sire finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic when making his only dirt-route start; dam finished 5th in her only dirt route; is 1 of 6 runners to win on the lead which makes today's pace puzzle even more challenging.

Grand Arrival

Another who scored his win on wet footing then did not want any parts of going long in last; bullet workout for this suggests he will fire better than latest-a career low Beyer while 2nd-time Long can be an improvement angle.

Manhattan Johnnie

Debut represents the field's best Beyer but is 1 of 6 runners to score right on the lead; the win looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 80 in his next-out BEL-MSW win; has not raced past 6F; sire took the G1 Haskell at 9F; dam was unraced.

Cairo Prince

Has not raced past 6F; sire took the G1-SA Derby at 9F on dirt; dam did not race longer than 7F; displayed rating skills in the debut win which should come in handy in a race top heavy with speed; high-percentage sprint-to-route trainer adds to the appeal.

Race 9

Soul Opposition

Hood goes on while moving to the fence for the stretch back out in her return to the lawn; filly didn't have much to offer on the green earlier in the year and neither of her cracks with winners was much; have to side with others for the money slots.

Coriander

Got over the hump when stepped back up to the MSW ranks first time off this sharp outfit's claim across town; filly will tackle winners for the initial time here but the barn does a nice job stretching them out and expect she'll be a little more involved early from here.

Absolute Beauty

She was pretty bad sprinting last time and now she'll move back to a turf route - conditions that did produce a career best number this summer at the Spa; a hustling pilot will get aboard so expect she'll have something to say from the bell and she has to improve off that last one; price should be right.

Spritely Mambo

Barn did a nice job to get this gal ready for the upset first out score on the Belmont lawn and now they'll let her tackle winners; filly has a right to be better with the initial experience behind her so the light number she earned in victory isn't a big concern and she did show solid positional foot; consider.

Take It Inside

Speedy filly held well for second money when stretched out at the level at Belmont a week and a half ago; she's settled for quite a few minor awards, but she figures to again be prominent from the bell today and draws inside the foes who figure to come at her early; may have to be run down.

As Well

Eighth time proved the charm as she rolled by the leaders to win going away on the Belmont lawn early last month; filly's style subjects her to wide trips and traffic issues could jump up in such a bulky field as she takes on winners for the first time here, but if she gets a clean run she can get involved here.

All Mine Tonight

Sprinter was runner up in each of her last 2 dirt starts and now she'll move back to the footing of her second out maiden score; though she sat a nice trip in that maiden victory she did show some grit and maybe they'll be more aggressive with her on the stretchout in this spot; dam dropped 3 route winners.

Lumineuse

Tries a route of ground after coming up with little late in each of her last 2 turf sprints with winners; maiden breaker earned her a number that fits in here, but don't know that she'll be able to get back to it at this 2 turn trip; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Sophie's Turn

Lightly raced filly made up some ground late in a short field while trying winners for the first time; expect she'll be tighter second time back from the freshening and her maiden effort suggested she'll be better with the move back to a true 2 turn trip; giving her the nod to run them down.

Stock Fund

After finishing second in 9 of her 11 prior tries, this gal's 23rd career try proved the charm and she earned a field best last out number in the process; stretch out to this trip shouldn't hurt and she did run well in each of her 2 cracks over the local sod; sometimes this type keeps going once they figure the game out and she does look to be a good fit at this level; contender, but Castellano opts elsewhere.

White Sangria

She's sprinted in each of her starts this year and now she'll try 2 turns for a solid stretchout barn in her initial local turf spin; 4 year old does move outside, but she should be more involved early and that can help her overcome the draw; lone route spin over the inner wasn't bad.

Glassy Aly

Really took to the green while stepping over it for the first time off this outfit's claim and the longer trip seemed to aid her as well; she'll try winners today while going from the fence to the outside slot, but in her current form certainly warrants a shot to improve second time over the footing.

Ascended Fever

AE was right there in each of her 2 starts across town since taken by this outfit and now she'll try 2 turns; she'll start from a tough draw if she gets to go but she's in career best form and looks as if she'll handle this configuration.

Silver Silence

AE is a late runner who has been consistently on the Beyer scale recently but the numbers she's been running don't fit so well at the level; maybe the stretchout helps, but she'll need to take a good step forward to go with some of these.

Alwaysinmycircle

MTO tries dirt for the first time since her poor upstate debut effort if the rains move this off; she is bred to handle the main track and maybe it's not fair to judge her by that initial spin, but she's got a lot to prove if this gets moved off.

Bit Bustin

MTO's recent numbers are light, but she was right there at the finish at this level last time; she did break her maiden impressively over the local main track, but neither of her wet cracks was enough to suggest she loves that type of surface; maybe for a share if she goes.