Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 28, 2013

Race 1

St. Sincere

Strong winds are forecast for today which will affect pace and final time; this gelding raced evenly in the fog recently and finally gets some post position relief which can help him atone; should be in the mix with an alert getaway.

Dapper Draper

Opened up immediate daylight in his first try over the Big A main only to falter in the late yards; turnback runner lands into a very soft field today and could prove the one to catch here, especially with a tailwind.

M P Ruckus

Usually earns a check and he had a legit excuse in the latest attempt, one of his better efforts; should be able to tuck in behind the inside speed and middle move; worth some trifecta inclusion regardless of the soil condition.

Fifth Gear

Showed a bit more of a first gear in the latest run but the song remained the same as he displayed little in the way of endurance; unlikely to be a major player no matter how the early pace unfolds; pass for now.

Lion Keen

Beaten favorite figures prominently against this crew in light of the sharp drop down the claiming ladder and the expert trainer involved; the colt makes his dirt debut and hails from G1 type Lion Heart who banked 1.39 million; the dam was unraced and this is he only foal to compete.

Lincoln Flyer

On the shelf since failing at Saratoga against much richer stock; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 4.37 million; the dam, a pure sprinter, won 6 of 15 and 428K; there are no winning siblings to mention; can upgrade with blinker addition.

Go to the Net

Although he is an unlikely hero today, he should be remembered for the upcoming inner dirt meet (he twice lost photo finishes over that surface this past winter); returning breezes are only modest and he appears in serious need of a tightener.

Quiet Value

Poor form throughout his career, flashing only the briefest of speed on occasion; although he was in dire need of the last start, it is doubtful he can improve enough to be a factor this afternoon; cannot recommend at this time.

Douro

Did not have an easy trip in his comeback race earlier this month; should work out a better stalking position and this outside slot may not pose much problem considering some of the plodders to his left; puzzling item at this reduced level.

Race 3

Holyicious

MED debut was most encouraging as he stalked the pace and stayed on well to be 3rd for this price; all that being said, that run also came on turf, which isn't the game we're playing today; good news is daddy was HOY and sired the likes of G1 Ky. Derby winner Giacomo so there's ample dirt in the pedigree, including the fact this guy's 3 sibs are all multiple winners on dirt including Deliburnsky (3 wins, $129K, 2 SWs, SP).

Eye Luv Lulu

Chased the pace in his debut before finishing a well-beaten; still, for a first run that wasn't bad at, particularly when you note it came vs. tougher (straight maidens) and the heat has been flattered (2 he faced that day came right back to win); now gets an all-important drop with that race under his belt, and 4 works since encourage, too.

Xixixi

Looks headed the right way; dueled and faded in his debut at MTH Sept. 29 but not only did he duel and not only was that his debut but it came vs. straight maidens; next start, in a race like this here Nov. 2, was very nice as he stayed on to be a clear 2nd, despite some trouble, too; Rudy pushing all the right buttons this meet and this guy might not even need more improvement to win this.

Good Guy Mike

Debut in a spot like this here Nov. 2 didn't go well at all as after a sluggish start he then got bumped by a loose horse; at least nice to see no panicky drop by Trainer Nick and no layoff and heck, he was only 10-1 in that debut so somebody saw something they liked; worked a couple times since and Nick has always been good 2nd time out (15%); 2 of 3 sibs to race are winners including Awesome Way (2 wins, $30K).

Shylock

Sire Shakespeare is 3 for first 28 (over 10%) with 2yo firsters, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 7 of 8 for $1.2 million, 2on G1 Joe Hirsch, G1 Woodbine Mile, also a G2 SW; dam has 6 winners from 7 foals including Goosie Goosie (5 wins, $131K), Lucky Gamble (12 wins, $377K) and Little Money (2 wins, $86K, G2 SP); dam won 2 of 10 for $45K, was SP; plenty of works for a trainer who's 1 for his last 2 (50%) first out, though with his pedigree could it be we won't see this guy's best stuff until he gets more ground, hmmmm?

Dynamic Chime

You can always forgive a poor debut, as this guy had Oct. 18, particularly when they come vs. straight maidens; but he then tried turf, a game he's bred for, with the drop in for $35K and didn't fare much better; back to dirt and back to sprinting with a slow Nov. 23 work in tow; at least 3 of 4 sibs are winners including Roddickton (4 wins, $131K) but considerable improvement is required if he's to be a factor.

Race 4

Between the Lines

Difficult trip first time out at Belmont, a race which featured swift early fractions; his sire won multiple G2 stakes and 450K; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 140K earner Imperial Zip.

Ten Year Warranty

Newcomer was sired by Elusive Quality who won a pair of G3s and 413K overall (his progeny have scored in 94 out of 609 debuts); the dam went 8 for 32 earning 215K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Chasintheblues

Stayed on well until the final furlong in his grass debut but was aided by soft fractions that day; can improve with the return to the main oval as the trainer has done well with some longshots via the turf-to-dirt approach.

Leroy Jr.

Interesting first attempt over the main oval when a game, clear-cut second; workout activity since then is very upbeat and the distance cutback should work in his favor as well; expert connections make him the one to beat today.

Missile Nick

Very respectable showing last month at Finger Lakes considering the layoff of just over a year; prompting type of runner should move forward off that needed effort and perhaps can make first run on the pacesetters.

Escape to the Moon

Adds blinkers after 2 sharp, but well-spaced, efforts thus far; his prolific sire won 1 of 2 races and 33K while the dam won 5 of 20 and 184K; sib to 77K earner Towering Moon; hurt by an outside post in the last run, he appears a prime contender now.

Felix

Beginner was sired by Freud who won 1 of 12 attempts and 44K (his progeny have scored in 39 out of 342 initial races); the dam won 2 of 13 and 42K; among the winning sibs is 137K bankroller Extinguish; shows an average work tab for the most part.

Race 5

Kitty Panda

Miss may have have adored the sealed good surface in last; she has much more speed than she just flashed; but she has to find a way to turn the tables on Stones among others; hustling bug got a chance to figure her out and she has a right to mature with grace as kin to double stakes winner and over $300K earner Akilina.

Pennymine

Basically flattered rival on the direct outside in last; winner of the March finale has won 4 times since, the last in a $10K claimer with a 77 Beyer at Keeneland; off a career Beyer and like the way she extended when asked; fit enough to drill a couple of times since the last effort; slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Hot Stones

The fact she ran well in her 2013 opener off the layoff gives here a shot to fire fresh; 8/19 placed horse won next out in a $14K optional, then was a distant 3rd in a $16K optional; toss the race on the turf two back, needs very best.

Ah Gaga

The fact she ran well in her 2013 opener off the layoff gives here a shot to fire fresh but that was on the inner with a much slower pace; 4th finisher in last cashed in this very league next out while the 7th finishers beat $16K N3L claimers in Philly in the next start; things have to break just right.

Saichi Sweepin

This barn seems to either go real hot or real cold; connections took a shot on the grass last time to no avail; she can handle any kind of going, and the blowout last Friday suggests she is feeling pretty good about herself; proven in this league; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Bird House

Game in the popular win but she may have to improve to repeat here; she has won her share and she can be placed anywhere and still perform; contender, far from a cinch.

Rakin' Gold

Mirror races in last pair and she has to show she can handle the dirt; miss controlled pace and outcome in the lone win this year but there are others here with designs on the top; tough to adore off the last pair.

La Bella Valeria

Miss has had tons of chances to pass this condition; hung wide in last, she has been handled by a number of today s foes and she sure gave up the ghost in the lane last time; backers can point to the best of 21 bullet spin last week but not sure that is the cure all.

Race 6

Cadaques

He's out of a minor stakes winning dam who won 4 of 15 starts for 79k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 71k, and he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Cuaba (4-16, 208k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 42k); respect the fact that he hails from a sharp turf barn but he hasn't made much of an impression in his first two starts.

Hard Rumor

He took a step in the right direction at second asking with a move to turf and he's a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Beebe Lake (3-15, 154k over turf) and multiple stakes placed Elusive Rumor (2-11, 126k over turf); he has a live look to him in this spot with the addition of Lasix and Rosario aboard.

Two Step Swag

This colt bring some early speed with him but it's difficult to give him a favorable push until he starts showing that he can carry that speed through the stretch; viewing him as being an early pace factor only.

Glenstal Abbey

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a dam who won 3 of 6 turf starts for 59k; this is a barn that is more than capable of having one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Stage Name

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won once from 10 starts for 28k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 16k; this filly is a 1/2 to Go for Red 'n Gold (1-4, 18k over turf); Pompa-owned miss meets up with boys, but she has early speed and note the addition of Lasix.

Senor Cach

Sire wins with approximately 3% of his first-time starters and with approximately 7% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal to race from a dam who won 7 of 33 starts for 176k, including 1 of 10 turf starts for 39k; prefer the Clement firster over this one.

Something's Coming

He's by a solid turf sire and he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 24 turf starts for 346k, but this gelding just hasn't been able to get anything going in his first three starts, and they've all been turf starts.

East Bay Lodge

Generazio-homebred is a 1/2 to stakes winner Wicked Tune (7-20, 247k over turf) and his connections will hope that a drop in class combined with the addition of blinkers can help lead him to an improved performance.

Let the Sparks Fly

It's interesting to see that he attracted some wagering support in his first two starts but he's clearly going to need to find a way to produce a much improved performance in order to contend; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out at CT on 11/23 going 6 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with a 38 Beyer.

His Freedom Reigns

He's coupled in the wagering with Let the Sparks Fly but he looks like a legitimate threat against these; he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Hide and Chic (5-18, 442k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 79k) and multiple stakes placed Saoirse Cat (3-15, 109k over turf); runner up from debut won next out here on 11/16 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 77 Beyer; Alvarado has won with 36 of 141 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Red Knot

This gelding has a little bit of quality to his pedigree and he might appreciate getting more distance to work with if this race has to be taken off the turf; not going to count out the possibility of this one being ready for an improved performance the second time around.

Pacemakestherace

This might not be a bad spot for him to land and if this race gets moved to the main track but he's still going to need to find a way to produce a sharper performance in order to prove to be a threat.

Race 7

Irsaal

He returns to action for the first time since the summer; became stakes-placed last out in a productive race; the winner returned to run second in the Grade 1 Haskell with a Beyer Figure of 100; the runner-up took the $107K Long Branch at Mth with a Beyer Figure of 91, and the fourth-place finisher, New Line, came back to win an N1X at Sar, with a Beyer of 93; faces older rivals for the first time, but owns the field's best last-race Beyer Figure; appears to be a runner of quality, and barn wins at an above average rate with its comebackers.

Spa City Fever

He's arguably the most accomplished member of the field as a six-time winner who has earned $396K; moves back into the optional-claiming ranks for the first time since May after a series of stakes starts, and when he last ran at a similar level he was a winner; the score came at this one-turn mile trip; leading contender.

Point Taken

He steps up in class, but comes off a sharp effort at this trip for which he earned what ranks as one of the field's best last- race Beyer Figures; he also has a strong 8-for-26 record; gets in lighter than some of these under apprentice Esquivel, and seems more than capable in a competitive race.

Midnight Taboo

He must face older horses after racing with straight 3-year-olds in his last few starts, but note he defeated his elders at Saratoga; has class appeal for the fact that he is stakes-placed and exits a Grade 3; he also has tactical speed, and is a winner at this distance at Aqu.

Speightscity

Grade 3-placed runner is making his first start since Saratoga; shortens up from a mile and an eighth and returns to a distance over which he is stakes-placed; shows a nice series of works for his return and comebacker is one to preview in the paddock.

This Hard Land

He gives up recency to most all of these since he has not raced since July; has more natural speed than most in here and as a fresh horse looking for him to be prominent from the bell; adding to his appeal is the fact that he is a multiple winner at this one-turn mile trip; as with all horses returning from layoffs, he is one to check out in the paddock and post parade.

Love to Run

He could prove to be the speed of the race; he is a fresh horse as this will be his first start since August, and as part of his prep work he worked a bullet half mile on Nov. 9; exits a seven-furlong race and the ground he picks up would seem to suit him as he is a multiple winner at this one-turn mile trip; leading contender.

Race 8

Saturday's Charm

He's hit the board without seriously threatening the top one in each of his last 2 stakes tries and now he'll move back to the fence; colt has run ok in each of his local spins but owns just one win at today's 6 panel trip; prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics again.

Caixa Eletronica

Heat's defending champ carried a slightly tougher impost to victory in that one; hard hitter has won 23 times and he enters this off a freshening for a barn that is going pretty well here right now; don't know that the clip will be very fast, but expect to see him rolling late; contender.

Jake N Elwood

Ships in to try his toughest bunch of the year after failing to offer much late in the Laurel turf sprint earlier in the month; colt was able to wire a short field at the trip at Saratoga in the summer but don't think that he's good enough right now to go with this bunch for a barn that's been on a poor run with its runners second off the break; longshot.

Palace

New York bred looked pretty good settling and finishing in each of his last 2 restricted stakes scores on the circuit; he's had nearly 6 weeks to get over the big Beyer score and though he does face a better bunch today none has run faster than he did last time; 2 for 2 over the local main track, he's dangerous.

B Shanny

First part of the barn's coupling tries graded stakes runners after coming up short late in his return to this circuit; gelding has speed and it figures to be on display against this tough field, but the guy drawn to his immediate outside could be breathing down his neck from the bell; sharp recent drill in tow for a barn that does ok second off the break, but this guy may not have enough left for the drive.

Strapping Groom

Beaten last out chalk cuts back a panel after squandering that clear early lead in his Belmont finale; 6 year old is a G1 SW sprinter and he's run pretty well at today's trip in the past; he does have the weight assignment to deal with but he's also proven capable of tracking and going on which could help him get the jump on some of his rivals today.

The Lumber Guy

Barn's other half is also a statebred but this G1 SW sprinter has been off his best game this year; he's a G2 winner over the local main track and would probably have these over a barrel if he could run back to either of his big sprint efforts last year, but in his current form it's tough to make that case; it is encouraging to see they thought enough of him to tackle the better sprinters in the country on Breeders Cup Day, however.

Sage Valley

Fresh colt was pretty good at times over the past year and now this white hot barn will reach out for a top pilot in his return to a venue at which he ran huge around this time last year; maybe it was just the wet tracks that did him in against those last 2 fields and he does draw an ideal tracking post today; giving him the nod to get back on track and beat this bunch home.