Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 23, 2013

Race 1

Casa Cavallo

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 10% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to Chloe Bear (1-14, 101k, including 1 of 8 turf starts for 54k); this barn isn't usually geared up at first asking.

Jet Majesty

Her career debut was an encouraging performance and it looks like she has the type of early speed to try to get the jump on this field right from the bell; she is meeting up with boys today, but feel that it's a good idea to respect her chances based on what she showed us in her debut.

Dowse's Beach

Full brother to multiple stakes winner At the Disco (10-65, 545k, including 3 of 32 turf starts for 192k) took a step in the right direction at second asking with the addition of Lasix, and even though he's been beaten by today's rival Forever Utopia in his first two starts, it's not going to be a surprise to find out that he still has more to show us.

Harbor King

He's had a few chances to show us what he can do and he was soundly defeated by a couple of today's key rivals in his most recent race; he's going to have to show up with a much improved performance in order to contend.

Forever Utopia

He merits top contender status based on what he's shown in his two most recent races, and he's beaten a few of today's rivals in those starts; he figures to set a good trip just off of the early speed of Jet Majesty, and if that one doesn't kick on at the top of the stretch, he figures to be in ideal position to take advantage.

Texas Town

Sire is 0-for-10 with his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to Yes It's Pink (3-11, 180k over turf); turf and distance are concerns, but he brings a little bit of early speed with him.

Storm

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from two starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to Come Undone (5-48, 92k, including 1 of 12 turf starts for 36k); Castellano has won with 51 of 179 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

With Expression

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal to race from a dam who was winless from four starts, and she didn't make a turf start; this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking and Rosario has won with 3 of 6 mounts for this outfit at the current meeting.

Pete's Fleet

Respect the presence of a fine turf rider in Lezcano but this colt has yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that he can keep up with the top contenders in this spot; he looks like more of an outsider.

Ausable River

He's out of a dam who won 2 of 9 turf starts for 41k, but he'll have to step up with a much improved performance after being claimed for 35k in order to have a say in the outcome.

Vagarious

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his first-time starters and dam won her only start, a turf start, for 9k; a few of his workouts hint at ability and he shows up for a capable win-early barn.

Born in Brooklyn

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes placed Dreaming of Cara (3-28, 198k); 78k purchase is another firster signed on Main Track Only going out for a solid first-out barn.

Sideways Vision

He's done some decent work racing over dirt in his first three starts and like to see that he gained useful route experience in his latest outing; he'll merit his share of respect if he gets to go in this spot.

Hampden Fiveone

Not wild about what he's shown in his first two starts, but he is making his first start for the Donk barn, and perhaps the move to dirt can help him along; nevertheless, others entice more.

Bluegrass Flash

He has a bit of quality to his pedigree and two of his first three starts have been fine runner-up finishes; his dam was a stakes winner while winning 5 of 20 starts for 198k; looks like the Clement barn will be live in here whether this race is run over turf or dirt.

Woke Up Tired

He was well backed at first asking and that performance can be viewed in a positive light; 400k purchase is out of a stakes winning dam who won 3 of 9 starts for 209k; have to respect him as a contender and he might really appreciate the added distance.

Race 2

Empire Dreams

Real nice 2nd in the Bongard when chasing a horse who's a proven graded stakes horse (Wired Bryan - won G2 Sanford, 2nd in G2 Saratoga Special), so while he got beat 3 lengths that was pretty good - can anyone in here get that close to Wired Bryan?; also looks good that this guy was well clear of the 3rd horse, who only came right back to win; shown speed and versatility; 3 sibs are Power Dreams (4 wins, $120K), Court of DReams (2 wins, $67K, SP) and Ascended Fever (2 wins, $132K).

Lady's Smart Alec

Came out smokin' in his debut Oct. 28 as he blitzed maidens at FL by 8; not only did he win clear, and do so geared down, but that run has been flattered (2nd finisher Buckshot Woody came right back to win); bullet work since there Nov. 16 sure bodes well, though it's worth noting the Beyer (62) needs some work, it's first time vs. winners and we're not at FL any longer, are we?; lone sib is One Smart Farrah (5 wins, $99K, SP).

Sol the Freud

Nice debut win at SAR Aug. 2 and a smart 3rd (to Free Mugatu) in a stakes there Aug. 30; freshened and then 4th in the Bongard; that wasn't bad, but he was well behind today's foe Empire Dreams, who was 2nd (6 lengths); no layoff this time and there are a couple works since; 3 of 4 sibs are winners including Franny Freud (8 wins, $686K, multiple SW including the G1 Prioress, G2 Beaumont) and Semichi (13 wins, $197K).

Free Mugatu

Won first 2, both at SAR, including a stakes Aug. 30; then shipped to FL for another stakes but had a sluggish start and was no factor, ending up well 4th, well behind winner Wired Bryan (who came back to win the Bongard); freshened with some nice works for this; reunited with Rosario, who was up for his nice debut win, which also came in slop, so you know he handles that, should it apply; 2 sibs are Thunder Warrior (7 wins, $70K) and full-bro Thor's Mjolnor (3 wins, $107K).

Captain Toews

Rallied from far back to win his debut at BEL Sept. 8, so taht was encouraging; things haven't gone so well since, however - was a non-factor 3rd there Sept. 26 and a well-beaten 7th at 40-1 in the Bongard there Oct. 19, finishing behind a few of these; at least Antonucci isn't giving up as there's no class drop and that bullet :36.40B at BEL Nov. 15 encourages; still, he likely has to run a race he hasn't produced yet if he's to be a factor.

Social Rebellion

Smart maiden win at BEL last month, though remember, that was on turf and routing, neither of which apply here; it was enough to earn him a turf stakes shot here just a few days ago (Nov. 16) but he was no factor that day; back ina hurry, though this hasn't been a power move for Cash (0 for last 7 when coming back in 7 days or less); at least sprinted decently on dirt at SAR this summer but he still needs a big step forward to be a player.

Race 4

Bass River Road

Fair breeze pattern for this beginner whose sire won a G3 and 354K (progeny of Noonmark have won 1 of 11 debuts); the dam scored in 4 of 27 appearances earning 222K; winning siblings include 152K earner Don Six's Number.

Shipwrecked

Working moderately since arriving from Finger Lakes; the colt's sire won both career starts and 79K; descendants of Singing Saint have won 1 of 3 initial races; the dam won 1 of 2 and 5K; among the winning sibs is 6K earner Littleville.

Latigo Trail

Offspring of Freud, who won 1 of 12 races and 44K, have been successful in 39 out of 342 first attempts; the dam involved won 5 of 23 races and 68K overall; winning siblings include 35K bankroller Mr. Lit.

Winnitude

A long set of half-mile workouts to consider; his sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million (descendants of Utopia have won their first test at a rate of 5 percent); the dam never competed; winning siblings include 136K earner Northern Berkshire.

Kick'n Butt

His sire won multiple G3s and 662K in total; offspring of Posse have won nearly 10 percent of their initial starts; the dam won 1 of 18 and 40K; there are no winning siblings to highlight; top-notch connections at the helm.

Royal Posse

See the previous runner for same sire information; this colt's dam never made it to the starting gate; among the winning siblings is 176K earner Ampart Ridge; latest training track breeze was fair.

Little T. Louie

One of several members in this field who hails from Freud (see Latigo Trail, above, for information); the dam was without a victory in 5 attempts; winning siblings include 367K earner Oedipus O'Neal; the trainer has scored with a longshot firster.

Gino and the Jets

After a respectable first try at Saratoga, he did not fare well over the turf; his sire won the Kentucky Derby and 1.99 million while the dam was a G3 winner who notched 150K; sib to 230K earner Adirondack Dancer; major upgrade to latest a.m. move; playable.

Frost Jordan

New face was sired by G1 winner Frost Giant who captured 454K and whose progeny have won 4 of 33 debuts; the dam was without a tally in 8 attempts; winning siblings include 43K earner My Cherry Pie; upbeat nature to his work tab.

Junger

Back to the main oval after flashing consistent early speed on the grass; he ran into a repeat winner in his sole dirt attempt and can prove dangerous if able to grab an early daylight advantage; consider.

Freddie Freud

Tries blinkers after disappointing as the public choice earlier this month (see Latigo Trail for same sire stats); this gelding's dam won 2 of 12 and 56K; winning siblings include 56K earner Conecuh; most recent gate breeze was encouraging.

Mineral Water

Notice the rich ROI for this trainer/jockey combination; this colt's sire won 1.13 million including G1 success (descendants of Spring At Last have won 11 of 73 debuts); the dam was without victory in 5 tries; there are no winning sibs to mention.

Speed Read

Showed his usual early zip in his first try over the Big A surface; reverts to the original rider today and will be an important pace presence if escaping AE list; pay close attention to late scratches in this affair and adjust your play.

Eye Luv Lulu

Prompted the issue briefly in his first run; his sire won a G2 and 1.43 million; the dam won 1 of 4 and 42K and this is her sole foal to compete; shows definite improvement to the latest training track drill but he will need much luck to start today.

Race 5

Hey Kiddo

A maiden, yes, but she showed talent in those first 2 starts, finishing 2nd in each; that includes a run over this track this meet Nov. 3, which gives her something of which only Skye Saratoga can boast, and her Beyer (65) doesn't leave her that far out of it; 2 sibs to race are winners including Jake N Elwood (5 wins, $274K, SW).

Sheriffa

Looks headed the right way; ran on nicely from well back to be 3rd in her debut at BEL Sept. 29 and then wired maidens to win easily there Oct. 19; sure, the Beyer wasn't any great shakes (57) but was a nice step forward from her debut fig (47) and now she's shown versatility, to boot; another similar forward move could put her in the fray; 1 of 2 sibs is winner Love Your Smile (6 wins, $159K).

Skye Saratoga

Only she and Hey Kiddo can boast of having a race over this track track meet, and this gal's race, well, was pretty darn sweet as she stalked the pace after stumbling at the start, took over into the lane and drew off to win in a laugher; Beyer came back smart (74) and she's certainly eligible to improve on that, too; 2 sibs are Fr. Peter's Missal (1 win, $8K) and Brickhouse Baby (1 win, $59K).

Noon Time Shower

Maiden facing some winners but she's SP and has shown some some talent; that being said, her best finish (2nd) came at FL and her 2 tries on the 'big' NY circuit weren't too hot (well-beaten 4th at SAR Aug. 16, well-beaten 5th at BEL Oct. 24; moves back to a sprint and a bullet :47.60B at BEL Tuesday is quite encouraging as maybe it's a sign she's ready to move forward...maybe; kin to 5 winners including Perfect Shower (3 wins, $419K, SW, G3 SP).

Missy Bay

Certainly headed the right way; awfully game in beating maidens at BEL Oct. 27, particularly after having a troubled start and having to rally very wide; that win did come, however, like her other 2 starts on turf; at least she's bred for dirt being by Posse but that means today it's first time winners AND first time dirt so there are hurdles to be sure; good news is all 3 sibs are winners including Frosty Bay (4 wins, $222K, SW on dirt).

Miss Narcissist

So is it blinkers, experience or maturity that led to those last 2 smashing wins?; well, maybe a bit of each; and it doesn't really matter as all 3 factors can still come into play today; blasted maidens at SAR Aug. 28, was freshened and went to BEL and whipped gals in an NY-bred stakes there, earning the field's top fig (78); plenty of speed in her arsenal and there's a snappy work at BEL earlier this month to show she holds her edge; 1 of 2 sibs is Ludo Bagman (1 win, $99K).

Champagne Ruby

Rallied to post a SW over state-breds at FL Sept. 28, which is nice; trouble is, she then tried the Joe A. Gimma at BEL Oct. 29 and after chasing the pace gave way to finish 5th, well beaten by today's foe, her stablemate and likely favorite Miss Narcissist (15 1/4 lengths); must deal with that foe today but she's got some tactical speed, but you get the feeling that if Rice ends up posing for pictures after this it's more likely with Miss Narcissist, don't you?; kin to City in the Clouds (7 wins, $262K, twice NY-bred SP).

Selenite

Couldn't handle Miss Narcissist at SAR Aug. 28 but that was this gal's debut whereas Miss Narcissist already had a race under her belt; then moved to turf and a route and rallied to beat maidens, which is nice; that was enough to earn a shot at the G3 Miss Grillo; OK, so that didn't go so well but Donk has given her time to regroup and moves her back to sprinting and dirt, which she handled decently in her debut, with some solid works in tow; still, this may not be her preferred game whereas others in here would consider this their forte.

Race 6

Kelli Got Frosty

She was coming late in her first with older rivals at a slightly shorter trip in her return from the break at Belmont last time and now she'll step up to the stakes ranks; she has shown some early interest in the past and it would benefit her if it were to resurface with the move to the fence; her 2 best Beyer efforts have come over the local footing and she's yet to finish out of the exacta on the track in 3 spins here; consider.

Jitney

Switches surfaces for the rise back to the stakes ranks following several off the board efforts on the lawn; 4 year old hasn't won in a long time but she did hit the board in stakes company both times she ran over the local main track; price should be solid to give her an exotics look.

Vicki's Dancer

Makes just her third start since the spring and second off this outfit's claim; she showed some solid tactical foot before backing out of it behind a couple of sharp sprinters and these are not as good as those gals; with a solid interim local breeze in tow the barn's second runner in here warrants a look.

P J's Superego

Sophomore has only run a handful of times and she's a neck short of hitting the board in all 6 of her career starts; she did run big as the chalk in stakes company here at this time last year and her tactical foot should have her in a good spot from the bell; nice to see Rosario take interest.

Keep Bustin

She's been off the board just once in 11 career starts and got back in the win column over several of these last time; that being said, she's been pretty consisted on the Beyer scale all year long and while that's nice, she hasn't gotten faster as her sophomore campaign has gone on; the way the barn has gone at the stand we'll limit her use to underneath in exotics.

Haldane

Tries better after a weak spin from the local fence a couple of weeks ago; filly has earned a handful of minor awards at the N2X level of late, but don't think she'll be able to step with this bunch today; have to side with others on the win end.

Familyofroses

Steps up seeking her third straight score while cutting back a panel for her stakes debut; barn's had a rough stand thus far, but it's nice to see Castellano take interest and this gray is undefeated from 2 career main track starts; waters get deeper here so we'd need to see some value offered, but she can't be overlooked.

Ah Gaga

Fresh filly tries stakes company for a barn that hits at a low clip with its absentees; she's been on her best game from a figure standpoint in her more recent spins but they don't stack up so well with this bunch; looms a big price.

My Jopia

Filly ran into a pretty good open company turfer in each of her last 2 starts on the Belmont green and now she'll get back in with statebreds in her return to dirt; she's got solid tactical foot and did break her maiden over the local main track as a baby; barn does boast excellent numbers with its runners switching surfaces; figures to take tote support but looks to be the one to hold off.

Matchmadeinheaven

Outside drawn filly makes her first start in a year for a new outfit with just a few slow breezes in tow; barn boasts sharp numbers with this type and does bring them back ready; late runner was pretty good in taking 3 straight to begin her career before her last sent her to the bench and she proved she doesn't need to be raced into shape.

Race 7

Sokitumi Samurai

Gelding could be more focused and ready to ramble with the blinks this time; 2 of his 3 were were local and he got a boost when the winner of last repeated in a $16K optional here with a 90 Beyer; hustling bug should have him in a nice stalking position; contention goes long.

Jeter

Must prove he can win in open company on this circuit; love fact he has natural speed but can track and still get the job done; he had to fight tooth and nail every step of the way in last and still was inching away late; sharp as a tack now, threepeat well within the scope.

Pontus

The good news is that the soph showed career speed in last; the bad news is there are several others that will be vying for the top; he freaked against the smallish field for the lone win on the turf to dirt maneuver; he has a right to have a nice career as kin to near millionaire earner Aruna; one angle to think about; this rider is 4 for 11 for this barn in the last year or so.

Lead Singer

Super try on the cut back in last but must prove he can win on the conventional dirt; 10/19 show horse cashed next out in a $16K Meadowlands optional with an 82 Beyer; wraps re-added last time; probably needs to improve here to succeed.

Able Baker Charlie

It took this colt awhile to figure it out and it may be the same thing vs. winners; he was making a little move late in last and he did walk out of the gate two back; apparently not much of a work horse; not sold on chances.

Erik the Red

He's been given time since solid maiden breaker; the 2nd and 4th finishers in the debut graduated next out and the winner repeated in a $35K optional here on 11/8; the 2nd and 6th finishers in last took MSW races next out and the 7th finisher was 2nd by 4 in a maiden $50K claimer; note 3 week gap in published moves till 10/25.

Deadicated Deal

the 8/1 winner took a $50K optional next out, then made it 3 for 3 winning a $25K optional with an 89 Beyer 10/12 at Belmont; cut out to run as a near $200K and there's a reason; he's kin to Grade 2 winner and over $300K earner Star Dabbler.

Crackerjack Jones

Only one poor effort and he was getting out that day; gelding has some try in him and at least he kept his legs moving with the drill last Saturday; must be left in the mix and his connections would love to see him thrive like top kin, G3 winner and near $350K player Khancord Kid.

Bakken

Bet like a good thing and he sure didn't disappoint; he set legit splits and got his final furlong in :12.01; love the series of drills since the debut including the best of 28 bullet on the 10th and his future is very bright as he is kin to double G2 winner and near $450K earner Justwhistledixie; look out.

Shankopotamus

Pro has a penchant for finding the wire and Jacobson obviously has a good eye for talent; the 7/27 show horse took an N3L at Finger Lakes next out, lost next pair; not thrilled with the local slate and he may need slightly softer to shine as this race comes up spicy.

Truth Is

Three excuses in the Spa finale; it was the first vs. winners, he was trying to go 9 furlongs and he may have disliked the sealed sloppy strip; still, he was there early and may just have not been ready to go that far quite yet; could see him settling and trying to run them all down; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory.

Race 8

Chapman

Produced a new Beyer speed figure Top racing right on the lead the 1st time he ever made the front a successful tactic; the show finisher from last Beyered 85 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; the 2-back winner repeated to make it 3-for-3 in a BEL-optional claimer with an 89 speed figure; projects as a force from bell-to-finish here.

West Hills Giant

Late runner cuts back to his last-win distance however that was accomplished on turf; Smooth Bert easily handled him the last time racing on the main track; his best Beyer was going long on AQU-Inner Dirt; saves ground from the back of the pack then make 1 run but is ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Readthebyline

Drilled the field's best Beyer 3 races ago when loose on the lead going long; showed nothing off the 96-day layoff when finishing last posting his lowest speed figure 2010 the 2nd-career start; which horse shows up for this?; won at longer over the track; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 89 in his next-out SAR-100K stakes win; off latest must show more.

Western Tryst

26%-winning 1st-off-the-claim and long-layoff trainer adds to the appeal; will wear blinkers for the 1st time ever trying to overcome the 7 minor awards with 1 win he often races well in defeat like last few losses; winless on dirt but owns his career-best Beyer on today's oval 2 back when defeated by the runner-up finisher who posted 92-94-101 speed figures in his 3 next-out wins.

Orino

1st time on dirt while back to the distance of his maiden breaker on turf; has been superb since routing on grass while 2-back the winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 84 Beyer; the trainer is 0-for the last-17 turf-to-dirt and 1-for the last-22 route-to-sprint.

Smooth Bert

Stakes winner over today's AQU-Main Oval he has clearly been best at distances longer than 7F; willing to excuse latest when taking on open company now back in with state-bred friends for this; likes to be forwardly placed while the 2-back win looks better since the show finisher Beyered 87 in a next-out BEL-optional-claiming win.

Sportswriter

Defending champion in this event last year when defeating Anaphylaxis was claimed 2-back then prepped nicely over the track 2 weeks ago when flying late at 6F; has not win scoring as the 1-5 choice in 2012 here but exits his best Beyer since; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 81 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; seems set for a biggie trying to defend his crown; contender.

Comandante

Exits a new Beyer Top for the 2nd straight start and has never been better showing a strong improvement in the 3 races since the barn change; speedster was taken just off the pace in last which proved a successful tactic; cutting back to 7F seems like a good fit for the pick.

Anaphylaxis

2-for-10 since a runner-up finish to Sportswriter in this event in 2012; idle 57 days since posting his lowest Beyer since September, 2010, in a BEL-7F race on a wet-main track; best game is to sit back and make one run; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Uncle T Seven

66 days since his BEL fade when claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle; nosed in a 7F stakes over a sloppy race track in 2012 which was his last race over today's oval; posted a mild worktab for this; will be seeking the winner elsewhere.

Jack's R Wild

Was no match for Comandante as he follows that one on the class raise; late runner graduated in start 19 rallying strongly at today's distance but clearly the class question comes into play for this; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 86 Beyer.

Uncle Smokey

Ended a long-losing drought in latest when dominating lesser but a great sign that he is back to best game in the 2 starts following the October claim; has not run a bad race since the more than 1-year layoff but today gets the ultimate class test.

Ultimate Empire

Have to go back to April to see a bad race on his form but has not raced this short of a distance since the August, 2012, show finish-career debut on SAR dirt at 5.5F; style suggests that 7F will be a good distance for him; 2-time win rider lands on Commadante for this; 1st time on AQU-Main dirt and the ground-losing post position are 2 drawbacks but seems the one to beat.