Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 21, 2013

Race 1

Forbidden Talent

Earned a pretty light number in breaking her maiden on the engine first out in the Saratoga slop and had little to offer subsequently against winners at Laurel; maybe she finds this bunch softer and there doesn't appear to be much lick in here so she'll probably have a shot to be more prominent from the bell, but she's got some improving to do to threaten in here.

Fast 'n' Firm

Broke her maiden from off the pace first out in Canada and now she'll try winners for a new outfit; getting off the fence can help and maybe with an alert break this time she'll be more involved in the pace; she'll try dirt for the first time here and though her recent surface drills as just easy breezes they don't exactly suggest she loves the stuff.

Foxbeau

First part of the entry responded to the drop back to claimers with a solid maiden score last Friday and she'll return quickly to try winners; number she earned in victory fits rathr well in this spot and this barn does quite well attempting to strike while the iron is hot; dangerous repeat threat if she goes.

Chase My Tail

Hasn't been much of a threat while trying 2 of her 3 starts with winners in stakes company and now she'll be offered for this heat's optional tag; showed some professionalism in the Spa maiden breaker and the class relief can't hurt, but she'll need to improve her recent gate habits in order to have a serious say in the outcome today.

My Jimmy Chew Girl

Filly was given a little extra time after running down the leader with a nice late kick on the drop in half in claiming price second time out at Belmont early last month; circuit's top pilot gets aboard this Pletcher runner for her first crack with winners, but she doesn't look to get a lot of pace in front of her in this spot and that could make it tough for her run to make an impact; connections will take their share of money so prefer to side with others.

With Delite

Barn's other half makes her first start up here off the private purchase after being given time off that late running maiden score in Florida this summer; new outfit excels with this type and this filly certainly has a right to move forward with the initial experience; contender if she's the part that goes.

Alpaca Fina

Barn's third entrant in here goes as a separate betting interest after getting beaten just over 3 lengths in a 4 horse stake field at Belmont last month; filly draws a solid stalking post for the drop to this level and she faces no runner in the same league as the gals that defeated her last time; they'll have her to beat.

Race 4

Theatre Star

Realistically placed as a $38K purchase; she may not have enjoyed the yielding course either; love the spacing of the return drills and the winner of last clicked right back in a $75K optional and then won again in a $90K stakes; lone half bro to race Certain Swagger won three times all on turf; should improve here.

All in Favor

Look for her to show more speed on the stretch out; Grade 2 winning dam banked $425K but was out of the money in the lone grass try; the half sis to win No Splits cashed twice on grass; must pick it up.

Bitty Kitty

More keen to run early in the last pair and the drop can't hurt; backers can point to the fact there is a triple turf winner in the tree that earned nearly $150K; bug got a chance to figure her out; needs very best.

Sundae School

In for $110K less than purchase price, rates legit look off that fact alone; place horse in last won in a MSW spot next out and the 5th and 8th finishers took maiden claimers next out; there is one turf winner in the family at least; can't be dismissed.

Malibu Queen

Not thrilled with multiple beats vs. softer; hard to be thrilled about either of her turf efforts; key off the September finale and she could push the issue; has some things to iron out.

I'm Smokin Hot

Been given time since being forced to steady; 2 siblings tried grass to no avail; miss has shown the ability to pass horses; slight improvement and she will be a handful today.

Fly Solo

Brief threat when over her head in last; Lopez fits this miss as he can put her in the right spot early; place horse in last took a MSW here 11/14 and the winner repeated in a $35K optional here last Friday with a 77 Beyer; connections still holding out hope for this miss as there is a double grass winner in the tree; would be careful here.

Iratinelexburance

She was losing a little ground late the last time for a tag; last time she was in the money it was only a 6-horse field; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Notional Girl

Miss was close up on the slow pace but had nothing left when it counted; show horse 8/16 graduated next out in a MSW with a 68 Beyer; winner 8/16 repeated in a $35K claimer with a 74 Beyer; she has lost ground in the drive in 3 of the 4 starts; will need a turn around.

Elissa Town

Weird start to kick off the career but she almost pulled it off in last; several multiple race winners in the family including double turf winner and near $125K earner Grand Stage; she has some semblance of speed but there are others with designs on the top here; at least she seems to be improving.

Tizallheart

Miss has been pretty solid since coming back in September; over 3 clear that day and she got a boost when the 9/13 winner repeated in a $20K claimer; could see her sitting a nice stalk and rally trip; rates legit look in all the slots.

Miss Livona

Look for this more experienced rider to be aggressive at the sound of the bell; there is turf success in the family and kin Wilson Ridge took a Group 1 in S. America and banked nearly $150K; may be compromised by the slot.

Skinny Margarita

Will finally be off the rail if she gets a shot to suit up; like fact she was almost 5 clear in last and the show horse was always by herself; she has a shot to grow into her skin as kin to Lismore Knight, who took a G2 and earned over $450K; could make some noise if the race comes off the grass.

Race 5

Alcomatch

Claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is usually not a good-win angle; key-race win 97 days ago defeating the runner-up, show and 10th-place finishers from last; they posted 92-83-76 Beyer speed figures in next-out SAR-20K, MNR-10K claiming and FL alw. wins; posted his career-best Beyer on turf; saves ground from midpack then makes one run.

Metaurus

Winless in 22 races since scoring from just off the lead in a BEL-14K claimer at 6.5F June, 2012; best Beyer of the year was at longer on BEL dirt; landed behind this same group in September so have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Moments Notiz

Exits his best Beyer since June when winning 2 in a row and 5 of 7; 1st start in New York noting the last-out IND runners have not fared well at the current-CD meet which is where they usually race; moves into a high-percentage barn which adds to the appeal; often sets up from just off the speed.

Beer Is Good

2-dull efforts off the September claim fading badly and figures as a pace presence for part here; new rider is his 5th different rider in as many races which is not a good-win angle but gets in with his lightest-weight assignment ever; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 95 in a next-out BEL-20K-claiming win.

Frazil

Cuts back in distance after posting his lowest Beyer since June, 2009, in a 2-turn FL dirt event; back in just one week exiting a dull race where he figured strongly on paper but showed nothing in his return to today's AQU-Main track; career-best Beyer was posted on today's surface April, 2011, in a 6.5F-dirt race.

Take Down Two

Way off best form since the wet-track victory; his record on less-than-fast ovals is outstanding; 1st race off the claim was an even effort suggesting he may want more distance than 6F to see very-best form; mild worktab off the 41-day absence so others appeal more.

Chaotic Bull

Sent back to New York off the win where he outdueled routers; has not raced this short in more than 13 months; gets the win rider for this for a trainer winning just 9% route-to-sprint; career-best Beyer on turf but super-fast track record out of town and must be able to pass the class test.

Bug Juice

Turf is not his best surface so willing to excuse the 1st off the claim middle-move fade; won right on the lead 2-back on dirt and form shows strong efforts on both fast and wet ovals; doubly dangerous being able to win from off the pace or right on the lead too.

Island Sunset

3-0-0-0 since the SAR winner and career-best Beyer at today's distance; ran well here in April when outkicked at longer going 2-for-8 since claimed off the previous-high-win percentage trainer; the 3-back winner and show finishers Beyered 97-89 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins.

Tummel

Was claimed off a career-best Beyer then has raced well in defeat in 3 starts off the purchase; 11 days since latest over the track with another-wide trip expected for this; 2 of his last 3 wins were by narrow margins and off recent form is one who often races well in defeat.

Race 6

Lady Luciano

Earned a minor share against a blowout winner first time out; her sire won the G1 Suburban and 454K overall; the dam went 6 for 28 and 93K; among the winning siblings is 32K earner Solid Gold Victory.

Sandy's Secret

Newcomer hails from Tippity Tap who went zero for 4 in his career and whose offspring are zero for 1 in debuts; the dam won 1 of 17 and 32K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; ordinary works of late.

Here Comes Stoney

Her sire was undefeated including score in the G1 Carter while earning a total of 480K (progeny of Bustin Stones have won 5 of 30 initial starts); winning siblings include 299K earner Metro Meteor.

Margaret Ownzit

Can return instant dividends for the new connections; she was a game second while favored a week ago (note the giant gap back to the third-place finisher) and should be within range here despite the numerical rise.

She's a Sizzler

After a fine first run in mid-summer at Saratoga, she has tailed off; shows a fair breeze pattern this month and can move forward finally with the return to the original pilot and descent to the claiming realm; should upgrade today.

Bay Dawn

Newcomer was sired by G3 Nashua winner Ommadon who amassed 214K but whose progeny are zero for 17 in debuts; the dam won 7 of 41 and 361K; sib to 29K earner Shewreckstheplace; generous odds assured.

Hangingwithsonny

Exits a distant showing at Belmont nearly a month ago, a race which featured soft middle fractions; switches to apprentice handling today but the expected pace transition may be too severe; pass for now.

Lucky Nancy E.

Yet another in for a tag for the first time; her sire was a pure dirt sprinter, a G3 winner who notched 532K; the dam was zero for 5; sib to 165K bankroller Seventy Niner; surface switch can help with the awakening.

Manhattan Gin

She quit early in her grass debut last month; her sire won 4 of 19 attempts and 219K while the mom won 1 of 13 and 12K; among the winning siblings is 94K earner Thundering Roar; lands into fairly paceless field and should benefit.

Stormin Mary

Yet to hit the board and the third start off the bench angle may not matter at all; draws another wide post position and will probably be up against it from the opening bell; cannot recommend at this time.

Aviendra

Daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Jazil has shown little firepower over the lawn; this filly's sire was unraced; among the winning siblings is 125K earner Honey Moo; decent training track moves during the last month may not be enough.

Front Cover Dream

Failed to fire in her maiden voyage while huge odds; her sire was without victory in 4 attempts while the dam won 5 of 29 and 61K; sib to 241K earner Marciaannie; local work regimen shows very little spark.

Talk to Me

Returns to the claiming ranks after coming up empty at the straightaway mile last out; will face a long, outside road on this turnback and perhaps should not be considered until she returns to the turf.

Race 7

Quantity

Tough old pro is capable at this level of competition and he's going to appreciate getting back over turf after staying in an off-the-turf event in his latest outing; late running type should see an honest early pace established and he won't have to worry about early ground loss with a rail post in play; must respect.

Mississippi Duel

He's the speed nearest the rail and he benefits from the services of Castellano, but he doesn't figure to have an easy early lead and today's one mile distance might be pushing his limitations to the maximum; willing to upgrade his chances if a couple of the other key early speed types scratch.

Foolish Tiger

For the most part, he's given a solid account of himself in his recent starts, and his best effort can make him a player in this spot; however, the enthusiasm has to be tempered a bit when considering that he's going out for a barn that is 8-for-173 in 2013.

Gimme Credit

It was nice to see this multiple stakes winning veteran regain some of his old form this year, but it might be of some concern that he wasn't sharp in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing, and that was after a claim; note that he loses the services of Castellano to Mississippi Duel.

Saints Alive

His career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over dirt and he's tough to get behind in this spot based on what he's shown in recent starts; add in the fact that he appears to be better off sprinting than routing, and he looks like more of an outsider; viewing him as being an early pace factor only.

Thomas Hill

His form does appear to be heading in the wrong direction entering this race, but he is only three races removed from a sharp winning performance, and he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort; leaning toward others, but wouldn't consider him a surprise by any means.

Torment

His complete lack of early speed is a concern but he put together a fine late running performance three races back at Laurel and he did dead heat for a victory over the summer at Saratoga; his two most recent starts give him a shaky look, but his best effort can get him into the mix.

Jackin My Style

He's never run a race that is strong enough to suggest that he can keep up with the top contenders in here and he's seeking his first 1-2-3 finish over turf in his 10th turf attempt; he has the look of an outsider; runner up from latest won next out at Prx on 11/4 going 1m vs. starter alw. rivals with an 82 Beyer.

Yield Bogey

Multiple graded stakes placed veteran has been at his best at distances shorter than today's one mile distance and his recent form hasn't been quite strong enough to get the job done in this spot; he's tough to root against approaching the age of 10 but going to lean in another direction.

Liquidity Trap

He once finished within a half length of Summer Front and like to see that he posted a win in his latest outing, and he's making his third consecutive start on relatively normal rest; he has the look of a legitimate threat while going out for a top barn.

Becky's Kitten

There is a barn change in play after a 16k claim, but this G3 stakes placed performer looks like a good fit with this bunch, and this outfit has been going well over the past couple of months; however, he might have to be careful to avoid getting too involved in a swift early pace.

Schoolyard Dreams

Multiple graded stakes placed runner will find himself in a favorable spot if this race has to be taken off the turf and it's a positive to see that he's run well over the main track here in the past; he may very well prove to be the one to deny.

Terminus

He might have to hope that Schollyard Dreams produces a sub par performance to have a chance at the top spot, but this will still be a good spot for him to land in and note the success he's had from seven starts over the main track here.

Pure Attitude

It's tough to ignore anything that this barn is putting on the track right now and this gelding is making his first start for them after a 14k claim; third place finisher from latest won next out here on 11/16 going 6 1/2f vs. 14k OPC's with a 76 Beyer.

Smokin Candy

Stakes placed gelding is another in here who will have to hope that Schoolyard Dreams produces a sub par performance, but this late running type is still capable of rallying himself into the mix against competition of this caliber.

Matt and Jesse

He looks like he's going well entering this contest, and even though his best effort might be short of the mark of what it will take to win this, he shouldn't be counted out of a spot underneath in the exotics.

Race 8

Victoryat Last

Have always liked the claim back angle and it worked nicely for Grusmark; like fact she has some semblance of speed but not convinced she can clear here; note runners in the company line last time were clear and the place horse in the BEL finale took a $14K claimer next out and was 2nd beaten three quarters in a $20K seller in her last race; mare kept her legs moving since the win and this rider was aloft for the January score; don't ignore.

Bit Bustin

Connections thought she was going good enough to try the stakes in August; like fact she has positional speed but she doesn't need the lead to succeed; must find a way to turn the tables on Motion Lounge among others;

What the Frost

Five clear in the tough beat here at this trip in April; going long today, look for that same rider to be gunning hard at first sound of the bell; she has a right to get the trip as kin Never Better was a double route winner; barn has been firing with everything they send out; may forget to stop.

Royal Suspicion

Would love to see her find that killer instinct; note 14 slices and just 4 wins; the 8/26 winner took an $8K starter next out, then was 2nd beaten 3 in a $16K starter 11/9 in Philly; she couldn't keep up with the pace at the shore last time and the splits project to be faster here; this pilot was up for the last win; another slice?

Motion Lounge

First off, she has been handled by a number of today's foes; fact she won her debut gives her a shot to fire fresh; dead aim two back on a surface she may not have adored; can't be counted out.

She's Stones Sis

All out but proven at this trip; her tactical speed gives her a puncher's chance just about every time; 7/21 show horse took a $14K optional next out, lost next pair; winner 7/21 won twice since, the last in a $75K stakes 9/14 at Delaware; major player.

Race 9

Magical Salute

Draws the fence for the stretchout following another weak spin when moved to the sod; maybe the drop back to claimers helps but his lone winning sib did so sprinting and the one who tried the green was 0 for 3 over the stuff; longshot again.

Sunnyinseabrook

Hasn't been a serious threat to the winner in any of his 11 starts and now he'll move back to the green following a poor main track try from the rail; maybe the hood removal helps as he gets back in with statebreds today and he does get the services of a capable bug, but even in here a minor award figures to be his ceiling.

Prime Time City

Tries the lawn for a new barn after a couple of weak dirt sprints; outfit doesn't do so well with today's applicable angles but this guy's sire does get about 14% winners with his initial surface starters; SP dam did earn each of her 12 wins sprinting on dirt, though, and failed to hit the board in 2 turf starts prior to dropping other foals who were a combined 0 for 9 on dirt; can't back him in here.

Easy Street

Wasn't beaten much at a one turn trip while making just his second start back from 14 months on the shelf last month; he ran well going long over a course with some give in it as a sophomore and getting back in with statebreds has to help; barn hasn't been going so well here but this guy looks to be a big threat.

Privatize

Goes for a tag for the first time while returning to the scene of his lone turf spin back in the spring; gelding does have some early foot which could help him secure position early on the move to 2 turns but there's not much surface pedigree to suggest he'll take a big step forward here as his sibs are a combined 0 for 7 on the footing; maybe the class relief helps him get involved for a share.

Arctic Missile

Pressed the pacesetter and didn't have enough to factor for the top spot late when turned back at Belmont; return to 2 turning could help as he did earn a career best number going long at the shore 3 starts back; catches a pretty weak field so he's worth a look.

Eastcoast Lights

Sire gets 8% winners from both his debut runners and first turfers; SP dam won first time out and banked 87K but never tried the green prior to dropping sprint winners from each of her 3 foals to race including 171K earner One Note Samba who is 5 for 7 on the green; barn hasn't saddled a winner all year, though, and there's not much morning activity for the route unveiling.

Hudson Ridge

Makes his local debut for an outfit that hasn't saddled a winner from limited starters this year; he was close in his most recent start at Delaware and he will drop in to face statebreds today so maybe he continues improving; won't be sent to post at triple digits like last time, but he'll have his work cut out for him today.

River Knight

He's yet to beat a runner home and now he'll try routing in his return to the green; Lasix and new shades are part of the package and his dad was a solid turf router once given the chance, but there's not much surface pedigree on the dam's side to suggest he'll go much better over the footing this time.

National Buck

Outside drawn gelding was freshened a bit off a solid pace effort on the initial drop in for a tag at Belmont; gelding did break from the fence in that one and didn't have much luck 2 turning upstate this summer, but he'll get back in with statebreds today while catching a rather weak group and that's enough to make him a contender.

Fiddlers Tango

AE failed to threaten the money finishers in his Belmont finale and now he'll start from a tough spot on the stretchout if he draws in; he's yet to hit the board in 9 career tries and doubt today will be any different.

Shortcoming

AE was beaten chalk across the river a few weeks back but did hold well for second money in that cheap open claiming heat; while neither of his local efforts was much he's earned numbers going long on this circuit that fit here; consider.

Cielo Soleggiato

AE brings speed to the table and there's not a whole lot of that commodity in the heat; he was able to set the pace a couple of times on the circuit this past summer and maybe he could settle into a decent tracking trip from out here if he draws in; with just a handful of starts under his belt he may be able to take a step forward off the poor try while getting back in with statebreds.

Mr. Masterpiece

AE is mired on the list and not likely to return to facing statebreds in this spot; off the board in 11 straight to begin his career, he retains the look of a big longshot once again in this spot.

Ten Ed

MTO will likely find himself closer to the top on the stretchout here for a barn that does well with both that move and with fresh runners; lone wet track try resulted in a third place finish that earned him a Beyer better than anything he'd previously run; contender if the rains come.

No Nukes

MTO has shown some late interest sprinting of late and now he'll look to stretchout; neither off track spin was encouraging and a lack of early foot isn't usually a plus in the wet going; maybe for a minor award if this gets moved to dirt.