Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 17, 2013

Race 1

Chamois

He ran well when finishing third behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest start and he's capable of getting himself into the mix against these on his best day; he has a strong pedigree for turf and he already has a G3 stakes placing to his credit; look for him to benefit from a favorable ground saving trip after breaking from the rail post.

Notacatbutallama

He shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Joha and North Slope, and this multiple graded stakes winner was sharp in getting the job done in his only start over the Big A turf course; he hails from top connections and Castellano has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this outfit at the current stand.

Joha

He's the only G1 winner in this race and have to respect the consistently strong form he's displayed since moving into this barn; he'd like to see the early pace be slow to develop, but even if it isn't, he's shown the ability to produce a decent effort from off the pace.

Tattenham

He showed a lot of ability through his first four starts and feel that he can benefit from being given some time off after a couple of sub par performances against graded stakes competition; maybe there's something to be said for Alvarado piloting another in here, but this Juddmonte-homebred can't be taken lightly.

North Slope

Grade 3 stakes placed performer has looked very good in his two turf starts with blinkers, and he ran well in his only start over this turf course when finishing close behind today's rival Chamois; Saez has won with 16 of 48 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Make It Gold

The addition of blinkers has been a key equipment change for this colt, but this looks like a difficult step up in class for him, and he was beaten by today's rival Mills just two starts back; prefer to give the nod to others in this one.

Wind of Bosphorus

Have to respect the impact that his early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up, but he finds himself in a tough spot after being claimed for 35k from his latest start; viewing him as being an early pace factor only.

Mills

He really hasn't run a bad race to date, and even though he finished seventh in a G1 in his latest outing, he was only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner; feel that this stakes placed gelding belongs on the long list of contenders in this event.

Vinny Goodtimes

He's proven to be a very sharp 25k claim for his current connections and really like to see what he's done in his two most recent races with Alvarado aboard; he has a chance to get overlooked in the wagering in his stakes debut and going to look for him to be putting in a serious stretch bid.

Race 3

Quick Casablanca (CHI)

Came from South America with a gaudy resume (G1 SW in Chile and Argentina) and made a nice debut when 3rd in a turf stakes at BEL May 15, after a year of no action; then came a dull G2 Brooklyn run, a layoff and 2 OK turf stakes tries; chased Hyper on both occasions and he was to be a big player in Saturday's G3 Red Smith; freshened and back to dirt and 2 big recent bullets say he's doing well for a trainer who's superb off the bench.

Percussion

Speed to be scary from the start, and 2 of his 5 wins have come here; decent 4th in a stakes at BEL last month as he dueled before tiring, though that won't make those who made him the heavy 7-10 favorite feel any better; figures prominent from the start here and he's not a need-the-lead type either.

Atigun

Had things going along nicely this past winter/spring; alas, after a good 2nd on the turf at SAR Aug. 25 his next 2 outings weren't very pretty; Jerkens now moves him to dirt and shorter and while much of his best work has come going longer note a good 3rd in the G3 Razorback at OP going shorter than this in March, so he can handle this game...unless those last 2 dull outings are a sign he's gone the wrong way.

Aussi Austin

Lone local try was a good 2nd, and that came in the slop so he handles such going if that applies; comes off a nice 2nd on turf at LRL, too; only a nose behind Don Dulce at SAR July 29 and only a neck behind Percussion there Aug. 22 and if those 2 are players here (and they are) then doesn't it follow that this guy can be a player here as well?; darn right it does.

Fast Falcon

It's been a while since his last win (in 2012) and he's just 1 for his last 18, but he's also been handed a lot of tough assignments including multiple G1 shots (was a game 3rd in last year's G1 Travers, beaten only a neck) so you can be a bit forgiving; bad news is after that huge G2 Suburban try (ran 3rd for a 103 Beyer) things have gone south in 3 starts since so it makes you wonder...did he use up his fuel this spring/early summer meaning he's now on the downside of his form cycle, hmmmm?

Don Dulce

Continues his solid form; it's his first time on this track but hey, he's already handled RP dirt, OP dirt, BEL dirt and SAR dirt so odds are he'll handle this place; Jacobson also saw fit to plunk down $100K for him 2 races ago and this guy responded with a super 2nd in a stakes at BEL Oct. 14 so could be Jacobson bought at precisely the right time; big threat.

Bigger Is Bettor

That may be the best NY-bred in the biz he scared in the Empire Classic (Saratoga Snacks); done some good work here and anything near a repeat of that Empire Classic performance level would make him plenty scary; and while he rallied that day note ample versatility in other starts so he can be placed wherever his rider sees fit.

Romancing the Gold

Chased a real toughie home in the Maryland Million Classic Oct. 19 at LRL; that makes for 2 straight big efforts and validates the judgement of DiPrima who claimed him for $25K off a big win at SAR Aug. 31; love that there's no panicky drop and that they keep him where they can't lose him via another claim; even so, he likely needs a career best to topple these, particularly from this far outside slot.

Race 4

Rachel's Temper

Finally got a slice on grass on the cut back last time but the blinks didn't help in the speed department; Castro takes reins but another piece of the purse may be the ceiling again.

Crashing Conclave

Off a career effort but she has lost ground late every time, now has to go the farthest in her career; seldom thrilled with runners in this league after they have failed for a tag; note she got to lugging in the debut; contender, far from a cinch.

Candy Portena

Off the rail after an ordinary effort; dam was 2nd in best result; this is her first to race; maybe she was intimidated by the rail; would lean toward watching a race going long.

Hardly

Considering she was steadied early, the debut was not all that bad and the show horse graduated next out at this level with a 63 Beyer on 11/8; dam's lone win came in juvenile debut sprinting on dirt; lone half bro was out of the money in only start; every right to run better today.

Seeking Her Glory

She seems to be figuring it out but has the Dream to deal with once again among others; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; should be on the muscle from the sound of the bell; contention goes deep.

Giant Shadow

Giant's Causeway about 9% with juvenile firsters in an 296-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 538-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2, earned over $3 million as a turf monster; dam broke her maiden in a juvenile stakes on dirt for lone victory; 2 of 5 siblings won; top kin Officer took debut at 2, took the Champagne, banked over $800K, never turfed; the blood is there.

Golden Maria

Tiznow about 8% with first-time turfers in a 360-runner sample; sire did not race at 2, earned over $6.4 million as a double BC Classic hero, never tried grass; G2 winning 3 for 10 dam didn't race at 2, earned nearly $300K, lost only turf out; this is her first to race; not sold on chances.

Jazil's Dream

Four clear after poor start two back, like the way she kept on coming in last; dam's lone win came on turf as older horse; the sibling that won Maram took debut at 2, won BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, banked $900K; major player.

Liberty Bond

War Front 6 for 89 with debuting juveniles, 16 for 119 with first-time grass runners; sire was out of the money in lone start at 2, won 4 times including a G2, banked nearly $425K, never turfed; dam 0 for 5; lone half bro was 0 for 7; never simple winning long at first asking.

Whispering

Quiet American has hit with about 7% of his first-time turfers in a 486-horse sample; sire 2nd in only out at 2, won the NYRA Mile, never turfed; dam out of the money in only start; 2 of 3 sibs won; one cashed at 2, 1 tried grass to no avail; homebred may need easier to shine.

Dixie My Way

Dixie Union has hit with about 8% of his first-time turfers in a 306-runner survey; sire was precocious enough to win debut at 2, took 7 of 12 including multiple G1s, earned over $1.2 million; dam 0 for 3; lone half sis to race was 2nd 3 times in best results; needs a rebound run.

Saratoga Karaoke

Miss could be more keen to run on the stretch out here; Ortiz got a chance to figure her out; must pick it up.

Spanish Gold

Excuse of slop in the bow but there are some stamina concerns; dam's lone win came routing as older horse; several multiple race winners in the family; several won at 2 including debut winner, G2 winner and near $700K earner Promenade Girl; just may get brave if she gets a chance to suit up.

Race 6

Sandy'z Slew

Stretches out off near misses in each of his last 2 cracks at the level across town and he was split by a couple of these in his most recent try; he's yet to go 2 turns, but he draws a nice post for the attempt and should be able to work out a solid ground saving trip; consider.

Street Game

Five year old brings some class to the table for his first start since Saratoga where he failed to go on against stakes foes over a course with some give in it; he was big in the front running stakes score the last time he set foot on this course and he's been working regularly of late for the comebacker, but though a top pilot gets aboard the fact he's in for the optional tag suggests he may not be so quick to get back to any of his better efforts here.

Danceteria

Sophomore has only run a handful of times and he'll take the next step up the class ladder off the front running sprint score in his return from 5 months on the shelf; lone 2 turn spin came over this course and it wasn't very good; expect he'll again be prominent from the bell but don't know that he'll have enough to go on late; likely pacesetter.

Knockher Off

He's another trying better off a front running score and now he'll tackle 2 turns for the initial time; though he faced an overmatched bunch, have to like the way he settled and unleashed a nice kick in his maiden turf sprint score upstate and maybe it was the wide trip that did him in off that type of trip subsequently across town; he'll need to improve several lengths, but he has shown he has some ability and the price should be right.

Karakorum Legend

He's been right there in this condition in each of his last 3 starts and just ran out of ground in that last one; don't know that he's as good at 2 turns as he is at one turn, though, and he does catch a solid bunch in here; maybe for a minor award.

Barrel of Love

Drops back to the level of his near miss 2 back at Belmont after failing to threaten in the starkes try last time out; his most recent score did come over the local course at this time last year so maybe getting back here helps get him back on track.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

Beat some of these at the level while sprinting 2 starts back at Belmont; 5 year old stretches out for this after a weak spin against open company on the main track and will need to take a good step forward in order to have a legitimate shot at a conifguration different than what he's been trying.

Front

Just missed lasting after arguing the fractions every step of the way at the level at Belmont; he'll return to the course over which he broke his maiden in the spring and maybe the move to the outside allows him to relax some early today; one to consider.

Special Selection

Draws towards the outside again following a close up finish against some of these in his Belmont sprint return; gelding hasn't been very good at 2 turns, though, so don't know that the stretchout is going to help him much; looking elsewhere.

Street Lord

Tries better in his initial turf spin after beating dirt sprinters while in shades for the first time at Belmont; fresh gelding has been working well of late for this and the barn does do a nice job bringing them back ready; sire is 1 for 17 with his first time turfers and this guy is the first foal to try the green out of a dam who never stepped on the stuff.

Why Not Whiskey

AE didn't threaten at the level last time out and now he'll move to a tough post if he gets to go; his last 2 turn try earned a career best Beyer and he was beaten less than a length in his lone local start; nice to see Castellano take interest.

Status of Forces

AE A will start from another tough spot if he gets to go here and the outside draw didn't do much to help him at this level last time; new pilot named hasn't seen the winner's circle from limited mounts this year; won't have it easy if he draws in.

Warrior Up

MTO has hit the board just once in 4 spins over the local main track and never in 4 tries over the wet going which is the likely condition if he gets to meet the starter today; he'll catch a turf meant bunch and that's a plus, but a minor award would figure to be his ceiling.

Street Swagg

MTO took a step back while aruging the fractions in his first start at the level at Belmont, but his prior front end score did earn a big number; the presence of the guy next door may make it difficult for him to set such any easy clip this time and he won't have the benefit of a strong inside bias today, either.

Ultimate Empire

MTO has been quite good since catching a wet tracki nthe Belmont maiden breaker in the spring; he's quick enough to secure a good spot early and he clearly appreciates the wet going; runner up in his last 2 at the level looks to be the one they'll have to beat if the rains come.

Sound of Drums

MTO is a 5 time winner who earned 3 of those scores over wet tracks and he enters this off a sharp local placing at the level; number he earned 3 back at Finger Lakes stands out, but though he encountered some trouble along the way he was beaten by Ultimate Empire 2 starts back; main threat if this gets moved off the green.

Race 7

Gee Linz

Lone-2013 win picture was sitting just off the speed but did not fire from the gate 7 weeks ago when posting her lowest Beyer speed figure since November, 2012, racing on today's AQU Main; has a lot to prove following 2-dull efforts following the April claim; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-20K claimer with a 69 Beyer then repeated with a 74 speed figure.

Frosty But Funky

Lone win was on the lead but went sent hard from the gate 2-back it produced another dull effort going 4-0-0-0 all double-digit length defeats since the March-maiden breaker; away with a new trainer seeking answers; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with an 85 Beyer; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 75 in her next-out BEL allowance win; has to crack Porvoo from the gate then hold off the closers; view as a pace presence for part.

Nonnie Connie

Another who prefers wet footing her lone win was over a muddy surface; was primed for this at longer although latest comes back as her lowest Beyer since May; today's distance seems like a good fit and should work out an ideal trip stalking Frosty But Funky and Porvoo from the gate; the 2-back show finish looks better since the runner-up finisher posted a 63 speed figure in her next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; the 3-back runner-up scored next out in a BEL alw. with an 81 Beyer; the pick.

Gendarmour

Doing the rain dance her field-best Beyer was accomplished on a sloppy-race track; more than 7 months on the sidelines for this after posting her 3rd straight double-digit length defeat the latest in a key race; the winner and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 92-68 in next-out BEL-100K stakes and AQU-optional-claiming wins.

My Unbridled Storm

Winless since January on AQU-Inner Dirt scoring at 1 Mile on a wet-main track; she Is 2-for-20 without blinkers both in dirt routes and 1-for-18 with blinkers on so removing the hood should be considered a plus; defeated by Nonnie Connie at longer so the cutback to 6.5F does not add to the appeal exiting her lowest Beyer since June.

Porvoo

Figures to battle Frosty But Funky for the lead; was claimed off her lowest Beyer since June; the runner-up and show finishers from last posted 68-67 speed figures in next-out PRX starter allowance and MED-$7,500-claiming races; turf is her best surface; lone dirt-exacta finish was in a $7,500-maiden claimer; know her early but unsure about late.

Milkyyourway

Another runner who loves wet footing noting the mud graduation more than 1 year ago at 2F longer than this; just one race in career at today's distance or shorter was a show finish; off latest have her ranked a notch below the top contenders on a fast oval.

Ascended Fever

Consistent sort has not run a bad race since June; 2-strong turf races off the claim including 2-back when defeating the show runner who Beyered 73 in her next-out BEL-16K-claiming win; main knock is the 9-0-4-1 mark on dirt; ran well in defeat in September an exacta finish when last seen on the main track; contender.

Hot Rendezvous

Troubled 1st time on dirt when chasing Dee Dee's Comet ; her 2 races with front wraps on were simply not her best efforts; another new rider is the 6th different pilot in as many races which is not a good-win angle; probably deserves another chance on a fast-main track catching wet footing for last but others appeal more.

Eyes of Midas

Been unable to fire back to the Beyer Top posted from her graduation win when sitting just off the speed; the good-gate zip displayed from 1st pair has been missing in recent losses; Dee Dee's Comet easily handled her in last on a wet track and recent style suggests longer than 6.5F would be needed to see very-best form.

Dee Dee's Comet

Broke poorly off the long layoff for last then outran her 64-1 odds by rallying past everyone but the top 2 including several runners signed back on for this; fast-track winner 3-back from just off the pace when beating the show runner a next-out 57 Beyer graduate; good sign that she fired a career-best Beyer 1st-time over the AQU Main; seems the one to beat.

Race 8

Cheyenne Nation

This barn has been absolutely on fire lately and this 7-year-old has done little wrong since being claimed by these connections; Velasquez is 3-for-4 riding for this barn at the current meeting and he appears to have another live call in this one.

Dysprosium

Dizney-homebred was very sharp in his first two career starts and he attracted a ton of wagering support against a tough bunch in his latest outing; don't want to count him out of it, but he is meeting up with a legitimate field of older rivals; Alvarado has won with 35 of 136 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Shkspeare Shaliyah

Grade 3 winner hasn't posted a victory since his third career start but he might be able to improve over his recent form with blinkers coming off for this; regardless, having a tough time envisioning him landing anything more than a minor award in here.

Bo Strikes Back

Tough to ignore the way that his form has improved lately, and even though he finds himself in tough for his first start in New York, can't blame his connections for shipping to take a shot in a spot like this; he looks like he's on top of his game as he gets ready to make his 18th start of 2013.

Hothersal

Grade 3 stakes placed 5-year-old appears to be heading in the right direction as he gets ready to make his third start since moving into this barn and the third-place finisher from his latest race returned to win next out at Lrl on 10/31 going 1m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 88 Beyer.

Lots of Love Mom

One Way Love has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this gelding has broken the mold as his overall turf form has been quite good; that said, it does look like he'll need to see a very slow early pace develop to have a chance at keeping himself involved in the running through the lane against these.

Corinthian's Jewel

He's done some nice work over turf in his career, but he enters this race after taking a year off, and it isn't like he's meeting up with a soft bunch in his first start as a 4-year-old; prefer to give the nod to others in here.

Dangerous Lad

His best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to threaten the top contenders in here and he was soundly defeated by today's rival Hothersal in his latest outing; third-place finisher from latest returned to win next out at Lrl on 10/31 going 1m over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 88 Beyer.

Speightscity

He's displayed good form racing over dirt at times during his career but his two turf attempts haven't been anywhere near strong enough to give him a competitive look against these; G3 stakes placed runner might be hoping to see this race get moved to the main track, and he'll still be faced with a difficult assignment.

Shetan

Have a lot of respect for what this barn has accomplished with turf starters over the years, but they are going to need to find a way to get this veteran to show up with a career best performance in order to have a chance at the top spot; a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Big John B

He's a tough competitor and he has to be considered at least mildly appealing in this spot while making his first start after a claim for a barn that scores well in that category; he just missed in his one start over this turf course and a strong turf rider gets the assignment.

Spa City Fever

Of the horses in the main body of this race, only Speightscity has dirt form worth mentioning, and this stakes winning veteran will deserve to be listed among the contenders if this race has to be moved to the main track; a currently live barn helps add appeal.

Irsaal

He was last seen earning a stakes placing and the runner up from that race returned to win next out at Mth on 7/7 going 1 1/16m in a 107k stakes with a 91 Beyer, and the 4th finisher, New Line, won next out at Sar on 7/19 going 7f vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 93 Beyer.

This Hard Land

He's developed a nice level of consistency to his game, and it's encouraging to see that he's run well the last two times he's been entered after a layoff; runner up from latest won next out at Sar on 7/29 going 1 1/8m vs. 100k OPC's with a 93 Beyer.

Confrontation

He's been super sharp in his first three starts and they really got away with one when they debuted him with a 50k tag attached; there is some concern with added distance in play, but there's nothing not to like about what he's shown so far.

Love to Run

Stakes placed veteran is another Main Track Only entered runner in here who commands some respect, and he wouldn't mind it if he had a surface with moisture in it to run over; he's Alvarado's 2nd call but Dysprosium seems very likey to scratch if this race gets taken off the turf.

Race 9

Douro

Although trounced in his comeback race, he did not have a smooth journey that day and can work out a better trip here against far weaker competition; can hit the board at generous odds if inside path has proven favorable.

Rap d'Oro

His best lifetime effort was over the Big A inner dirt and perhaps he is preparing for that surface; was not able to keep pace in last month's effort and is likely in need of another tightening race.

River Ron

Only one start since February and he came up empty that day; subsequent workout activity is mild but he did earn minor shares in 2 prior tries over this main oval; remains a difficult runner to endorse as the one to key on top.

Flashy Ross

Cuts back from a long series of routes and has shown some prompting ability in the past; unlucky gelding might be able to stay within striking range here against this soft lot; the betting value should be there as well.

Fifth Gear

Showed a bit more life in his latest run when finishing midpack at a tremendous price; needs a more accelerated pace today in order to earn a larger share; may round out a healthy exotic payoff if that is the case.

Know This

Has not come close to his effort of a year ago at the straightaway mile; did not show any firepower in his comeback race earlier this month; perhaps watch for him down the road, on the stretchout.

Quiet Value

Yet to finish in the money and the returning workout regimen is nothing special; no reason to foresee a sudden turnaround; pass until further notice.

Chief Scout

Drops way down the totem pole and the blinker addition can help in a big way; his sire was a G1 victor who banked 616K; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 39K earner Divine Sanction; should be a major presence by default.

Wood On the Fire

Back to the main track after several turf failures in a row; most recent training track breezes are encouraging and he gets in light; statebred should fare better here despite facing open company.

St. Sincere

Looks like one of those now or never propositions; ran well as the public choice in the latest pair and gets a weight and position advantage over M P Ruckus who outfinished him last time out; can finally atone.

Ballybrit

The selection despite being trounced in the last venture; was not that far off some solid early fractions in that test and should find himself among the leaders here because of that pace transition; nicely positioned for the score.

M P Ruckus

Keeps earning checks and should achieve a fair stalking trip now despite the wide slot; had a legitimate excuse in the latest defeat and now switches to Rosario; many strong factors in his favor but he will be overbet.

Comax Cat

Newcomer need not be much this afternoon; his sire won 2 of 9 attempts and 86K (offspring of One Great Cat are zero for 1 in debuts); the dam won 3 of 19 and 89K; among the winning sibs is 67K earner Jump for George.