Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 15, 2013

Race 1

Princess Tumi

Broke slowest in her initial run and never recovered; her sire won 4 of 6 starts and 148K while the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 247K earner Whatsitgonnatake; can rebound with equipment change.

Wickedly Sweet

Maryland invader seems capable of handling the numerical rise in light of 3 strong efforts; alert breaker should obtain striking early position without difficulty and be able to launch an effective rally from close range; respect her chances.

Possetivevibration

She may not have cared for the wet-fast surface in her Big A debut; has run into blowout winners in each and every start and can upgrade over the expected fast track that is forecast; generous odds assured despite the class transition.

Brown Mellisa

Showed little when beginning her career over the lawn; her sire won a slew of G1s over the main en route to banking 3.61 million; the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; among the winning siblings is 174K earner Rosencrans.

Birdsofafeather

Rested since pressing a solid pace in her maiden voyage at Monmouth Park; her sire won multiple G2s and 899K while the dam scored in 1 of 5 appearances earning 18K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Benny's Bullet

Similar to Wickedly Sweet as all 3 of her efforts have been solid; was game to maintain the place in her last assignment at Belmont and the daughter of top-notch sprinter Benny the Bull figures prominently from the opening bell; playable.

Foxbeau

Although she was outfinished by Benny's Bullet last month, she must be considered here because of the hot streak of the trainer at the helm (especially in combination with this apprentice); could prove to be the right value play in puzzling affair.

Rocks Anne

Newcomer was sired by G1 type Rock Hard Ten who netted 1.87 million (his progeny have scored in 31 out of 246 debuts); the dam won 2 of 22 and 52K; winning siblings include 69K earner Prospero; local work tab is definitely above average.

Samurai's Honor

Improved when dropping down to the claiming world but comes out of a race which featured a very easy half-mile fraction and it seems she will encounter a far swifter pace here; despite the upgrade in the latest training track breeze, she may have her troubles with the return to this class.

Magical Dream

Beginner hails from successful sire Malibu Moon who won 1 of 2 and 33K (his offspring have scored in 101 out of 717 initial starts); the dam never competed; among the winning siblings is 779K earner Dream Rush.

Race 2

Ecstatic Miss

No factor at BEL Oct. 17 but that was a tough spot, and not much was expected anyway (sent off at 53-1); down in class today which may help, and while she's offered for a tag it's no firesale for this kind of price ($50K); broke her maiden on dirt at TAM in the winter so she's not averse to this footing;still, her top dirt Beyer (60) means she needs a step forward to challenge these.

House On Toilsome

Tough beat at BEL Oct. 14 as she stalked, had traffic issues and still rallied strongly to lose by just a nostril; not only did Barbara see fit to claim her for $20K but it's a great sign he brings her back in a spot where he can't lose her via another claim;she's shown before she can be effective at this level, though her best races at about this level came on turf; at least that Oct. 14 dirt sprint shows she's capable of playing this game, too.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Looked poised to turn the corner in June/July with 2 straight 2nds but things have gone south pretty drastically since; after 3 dull outings they gave her a couple months off to regroup but her 2 return outings this fall weren't much better; what's worse is most of that action came vs. NY-breds only - she's facing open foes today so it may be a tougher spot.

Bird House

Looks pretty scary; after that dull June 28 turf try she's posted 3 nice main-track outings, one of those in the slop, so she handles that footing if it applies; has versatility, too, which gives Ortiz Jr. options; ended up dueling last time and she paid the price, but note her prior 2 good outings showed she's got more patience than that and can punch it in late.

Madre Ditutticapi

Seemed to get things figured out in June with 2 straight wins; form has been spotty since but at least her 4th at BEL Oct. 20 came vs. tougher foes so this drop helps; it may also be a boon that she's reunited with Castellano who not only comes here hot but who was up for those 2 BEL wins in June so he may know best what makes her tick.

Race 4

Media Kid

He has a chance to prove to be a solid 20k claim for his current connections and he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 5 of 23 starts for 194k, including 2 of 11 North American turf starts for 119k; this colt is a 1/2 to G1 winner Go Between (8-27, $2.9 million, including 5 of 19 turf starts for $1.1 million).

Miles Together

He's yet to get much going through his first three starts and he's by a sire who is 0-for-23 with his turf starters; he's going to need to show up with a much sharper performance in order to have a say in the outcome.

Papa Doc

Look for him to break running from an inside post and there's a chance that the early pace won't heat up all that much; he's probably going to need to produce his best performance to date to get the job done, but he has at least mild appeal with Rosario aboard.

Minstrel Road

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 8% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from 10 starts, including 9 turf starts; this barn can be live with a firster and Lezcano has won with 17 of 52 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Hunter Grey

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his first-time starters and with approximately 9% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from three starts, including two turf starts; prefer to get a look at this one before thinking about backing.

Loveisheartandsoul

This gelding has a little bit of quality to his pedigree and like the idea of him giving turf another try; note that he finished behind a couple of today's rivals in his career debut and that his short comment from that race points out trouble.

In Speight Ofitall

He might not mind getting back over turf and he's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 6 of 31 starts for 578k, including 3 of 14 turf starts for 302k; he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Baryshnikov (7-40, 350k, including 2 of 15 turf starts for 231k).

Captain Keon

A couple of his turf starts have been on the level of what it might take to win this and that includes his latest start, a race that saw him split a couple of today's rivals; he looks like a solid fit at this level of competition.

Big Sam

Half-brother to stakes winner New Edition (4-26, 269k, including 2 of 17 turf starts for 192k) ran well in his turf debut back in January, and feel that this 3-year-old is eligible to be ready for better after the time off; he has a live look to him while making his first start for the Levine barn.

Solly's Mischief

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 5 of 23 starts for 155k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Format V. (7-38, 213k, including 3 of 17 turf starts for 93k).

Lion Keen

He commands his share of respect in this spot based on what he's shown in his first two starts, but this is his first route attempt and his first start around two turns; it's Jacobson after a claim and note that he beat a couple of these in his latest outing.

Oghma

His latest start can be viewed as his best effort to date, but he's going to need to take a noticeable step forward over that performance to beat these; winner from latest won next out at Crc on 11/3 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 16k N2L claimers with a 62 Beyer.

Race 5

Shades of Indygo

Took a good step forward when stretched out to this trip in her second career start and the solid bug aboard for that one returns here as well; filly wasn't able to get to the front running second place finisher in that one and that filly returns in here as well, but this gal is out of a route winning dam and she's kin to a multiple route winner as well as multiple SP sprinter and 177K earner Lenders Way so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her keep improving; can get in the mix here.

Longride to Wisdom

First part of the coupling didn't offer much late in either of her 2 starts and now she'll switch surfaces while tackling more ground; barn does ok with the moves and the SW dam did win routing so maybe there's some hope here as a top pilot takes interest, but she's got some improving to do.

Star Grazing

Other half of the entry earned a big number when off the board in the last out stake where despite trouble she finished just a half length off one of today's foes; shades come off for her return to the maiden ranks and she did run into a pretty good one upstate the last time she stepped with non-winners on the main track; she's kin to 3 multiple winners, most notably SW router and 349K earner Friend or Foe; main danger.

Sheepish

Didn't do much running first out at this trip and returned to work a slow half mile for a barn that's been on a poor run with its second time starters; top pilot gets off a runner whose lone sib to race was a 3 times sprint winner; just watching her in here.

Keen Katana

Didn't have enough to factor in the lane of her sprint debut across town and now she'll stretch out with a slumping pilot getting aboard; gray's lone sib was winless from 2 spins and don't know that today's added ground is going to help move her forward much; just watching today.

Fee and Sugar

Hood goes on following an improved try behind a couple of these when stretched out to today's trip off the break at Belmont; barn boasts solid numbers second back from the break and this gal certainly has a right to be better second time both going long and off the freshening; price should again be solid to give her a look.

Please No Emails

Gets Lasix off the sharp front end trip placing across town in her first start since Saratoga; she's returned to breeze well of late and should be tighter with her last behind her; her 2 winning sibs did so sprinting, but she's shown that she can stay the trip and should again be prominent from the bell; they'll probably have to run her down again to win.

Canal Six

She's hit the board in each of her 2 starts but failed to threated a couple of decent fillies in the Belmont stake last time; back in with maidens, she'll stretch out a bit for this low profile outfit and her immediate male pedigree influences suggest she'll like the added trip; back in with maidens, it looks like they'll have her to beat.

Chicks and a Pig

Had some early trouble in her debut and didn't prove a threat thereafter; dam was a 3 time sprint winner and she did drop 3 winners, 2 of whom scored going long, so maybe she moves forward on the stretchout; barn hasn't had much recent luck with runners who have had a race.

Jcs American Dream

Sire gets 6% first out winners from his offspring and the dam was a 2 time sprint winner who dropped 3 winners including 319K earner One Quiet Cat who won her debut; just a few slow breezes on her tab for a barn that has seen the winner's circle only twice this year.

Touching My Toes

Sire has yet to see a debut winner from 51 of his offspring to hit the track but the dam did win her first out sprint try; one of her 2 foals to race was a 4 time winner; barn hasn't done its best recent work first out and this can be a tough trip, but there are some solid bullets breezes on her tab and the circuit's top pilot is enticed.

Aspree

Gray has shown some solid early interest and has gotten better with racing; most experienced runner in here is kin to a multiple route winner so maybe the added ground helps her keep improving for a barn that's profitable on the stretchout.

On a Snowy Evening

Outside drawn filly adds the hood for her return to dirt after a weak turf route try across town; her Finger Lakes drills aren't much and she was well beaten by one of today's contenders first out at Saratoga; looks to have a tough task at hand.

Race 6

Royal Blessing

Colt had dead aim at the top of the lane before going backwards; maybe he was just a tad short; show horse 7/19 won twice since and was 2nd beaten a nose in a $25K optional 10/12 at the Meadowlands; caught in a gypsy switch last time, runner lacked great clearance until it was too late; like the series of drills since; respect.

Zhivago

Repeatedly proven off the pine, he has been put through the motions upstate; a true marathoner, he has showed that he can be fairly close up or come from left field and get the job done; he did only beat 4 foes in the last score; try to get a good look at him on the track here.

Penn's Grant

Decent try in the off going last time and this is obviously a much better spot than the 2 stakes he tried after the claim; 8/21 show horse cashed next out in a $50K DEL stakes and 8/21 place horse took a $35K optional there since; fully extended in the last score and he has not been able to match that Beyer since; needs very best.

English Minister

Soph has a nice turn of late foot; toss the stakes tries since the maiden breaker and the form brightens; 9/20 show horse took an N1X at AQU 6 days ago with an 88 Beyer; place horse in last took an N1X with a 77 figure 8 days ago at LRL; more experienced pilot hired today; has to find that killer instinct.

Lure of the South

Checked 3 back, wide in last pair; he can close at times but the last win came against a cheap group and a small field; could he still grow up, mature and excel?; it is possible since kin Evening Attire won a $250K stakes at 10 on way to near $13 million career.

Make a Decision

The May to September freshening has helped this guy it seems; game in the win in last and the place horse 10/5 cashed next out in an N1X with a 79 Beyer; proven locally, runner has a nice stalk and pounce style; he has to show that he can win outside of Empire-bred land.

Hear the Word

Popular Great Meadow winner was boosted a bit when the place horse cashed next out but that was against just maiden $20K foes; trainer has spotted them just fine with limited starters and note that Pimlico finale did come back ultra live; still, would tread lightly here.

Ampersand

Wide or troubled in most of the outings this year; note he was pinballed against the gate in the last win; a repeat of any of the last 3 Beyers would put him in the thick of it as Rosario takes reins; due.

Wayward Sailor

It can't be simple moving a horse up from Jacobson; runner does have natural speed but he can sit just off the pace and perform too; beaten a nostril in this very league in June; must be given valid look off that race alone.

Giopi (IRE)

Look for rider to be aggressive here; note bug put gelding on the lead the last time aloft; he seemed in a decent spot in Jersey last time, just never fired; needs a rebound run.

Unitarian

Slow learner had the excuse of the slop two back; place horse in the maiden breaker took a MSW at SAR in next and then was a press and fade 8th; runner was inching toward the winner late in last and that's a positive; contention goes deep in a good betting race.

Cinnamon Beach

Handled a half dozen for the last win but the stuff this year is dull; place horse in last took a $25K optional next out with an 89 Beyer and the show horse took a $20K claimer 6 days ago with an 82 figure; hungry tyro takes the reins; not seeing it.

Yankee Fourtune

Gelding has a penchant for finding the wire; keen to run early in last and he just kept going; his natural speed is an obviously plus, but he can settle just off the leaders and succeed too; rates long glance if he rolls.

Fastinov

Maidens beat winners once in a while, but it sure doesn't happen everyday; stewards got involved in last after runner came out and was weaving back and forth; the 9th finisher in last did graduate next out but only in a maiden $4500 Finger Lakes seller; 9/27 place horse beat $16K maiden claimers with a 66 Beyer on 10/17; passing.

Race 7

Love Train

Only 4th at PRX Oct. 20 but remember, that was her first start in 4 months and her first try vs. elders; now has that run under her belt, there's no layoff since, no panicky drop and she's reunited with Castellano who was up for her best finishes at GP this winter/spring/ hey, she cost $250K at auction so there are likely still some expectations here that she becomes more than an allowance horse.

Kara's Match Point

Oct. 24 run at BEL wasn't very pretty but remember, not only was that her first start in over 5 months but it was her first try on turf, too; nice to see there's no layoff since, no panicky drop and the return to dirt may be key; after all, she beat maidens on AQU's inner March 22 and was a nice 2nd in the slop at BEL May 8 so dry or wet it shouldn't cause her any issues; solid work Nov. 6 says she's feeling good.

Laguna Girl

Toss that slop run at BEL 13 months ago and you're left with 6 strong dirt sprints; that includes a very sharp 3rd at BEL at about this level Oct. 20 when beaten just a neck (and only a head behind today's foe Seasoned Warrior); plenty of speed to be in the race from the start but she certainly doesn't look like a need-the-lead type; smart :48.60B at BEL Nov. 9 hints she's doing well.

Seasoned Warrior

Kept to her task gamely to be a sharp 2nd ina spot similar to this at BEL Oct. 20; sure, she only beat Laguna Girl by a head so there's not much between them, but that was also this gal's first start in 4 months so she's eligible to move forward; it's her first time here but hey, she's handled BEL dirt, SAR dirt and CD dirt so odds are she'll handle this place, and note they thought enough of her as a 2yo a year or so ago to give her a shot at a G1 and a couple G2s, too.

Masasi

It was just a maiden win, yes, but that Oct. 24 victory at BEL jumps off the pace because of the Beyer (92); no one else in here has really come close to that kind of fig; that being said, it was also so beyond this girl's norm you wonder if that was just one of those days when everything went right and she freaked....or if that's her new normal nowadays; still, it's first time vs. winners and while she Beyered so big last time not she also got beat by Kara's Match Point on the inner here March 22.

Race 8

Joking

Projects to race close to the pace today in a race loaded with other gate speed; was claimed off a key-race loss; the runner-up finisher from last posted an 85 Beyer speed figure taking a BEL-30K claimer next out; he defeated the 10th-place finisher a BEL-20K-claiming next-out winner (77); 1st time racing on dirt since February and his only prior main-track route was a favored 5th-place finish.

Scherer Magic

74-day absence since breaking last; his 3 wins have all occurred from stalking trips; new trainer wins 28% first-time out with newly-acquired runners; one dirt start was a 6F fade in a stakes event; wish the published Oct 19 workout for this was more enticing.

Peri Whan

Speedster seems the one to catch as all 3 wins occurred when breaking on the lead; the 3-back runner-up finisher looks better since the winner repeated in a MTH-optional claimer with an 85 Beyer; cuts back in distance but leaves the NJ-bred ranks which is clearly a step up in class; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Tizmas

61 days since claimed by a 29%-win trainer 1st-off-the purchase; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 88 taking a BEL-20K claimer next out; he beat the 4th-place finisher a DEL-5K-claiming winner in his next start (75); lone win this year was sitting just off the speed and figures to go after Peri Whan early; lone race over the track was an exacta finish spritning vs. much lesser; view as a pace presence.

Bernardo

Exits back-to-back new Beyer Tops scoring from both off the pace and dueling for the lead also on wet and fast race tracks; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 88 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; handled the 2-back show runner a next-out 81 speed figure BEL-MSW winner; the pick.

Risk Management

Away since defeated by the show runner who Beyered 76 in his next-out BEL-35K-claiming win; was a Main Track Only entry Wednesday at AQU in a much-easier claiming event (5-1 morning-line odds); lone win was sitting off the speed at shorter and the way he faded when last seen in June the Mile distance is a big question mark; projects to press Peri Whan and Tizmas wide.

Dattt Melody

Beat the show and 5th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 81-62 in next-out BEL-35K-16K-maiden-claiming wins; he has not raced past 7F yet; sire took the 9F-G1 Florida Derby; 0-for-2 dam did not compete past 7F; kin to Timely Talley who won going long on synthetic and finished 2nd and 3rd in two-dirt routes.

Mighty Ian

To race today would have to be scratched from an easier spot Wednesday in a LRL-1M starter alw. turf event (3-1 morning-line odds); 60 days since his 4th straight-new Beyer Top and has shown the ability to race on the lead or from off the pace; beat the runner-up finisher from last a next-out 67 Beyer winner in a PRX-16K claimer; defeated the 2-back show runner who posted a 78 speed figure in his next-out BEL-25K-claiming win; contender.

Much Stronger

64 days since a tough-beat neck loss as the odds-on choice; won going long to graduate but has been very best sprinting; curious that the last 3 win riders have mounts on Risk Management and Peri Whan today; has the right stalking style to be a major threat on a fast-main track; seems the one to beat.