Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 14, 2013

Race 1

Star Empress

Youngster walked out of the gate on the synthetic and it was over in a hurry; at least the race came back live as the 9th finisher took a MSW at TDN, 7th finisher won at that level at MNR and the winner was 2nd beaten a half in an N1X at KEE; dam was 0 for 9; one of 3 siblings won; that runner, Star of Whitney, took several stakes, won twice at 2, banked over $250K; toss anything from a 31% barn at own risk.

Katie's Garden

Educated when taking the overland route, must deal with the arch rival in the Mott charge right back; Grade 1 winning 4 for 10 dam took debut at 2, banked nearly $450K; lone half sis to race was third in only start; expect much better effort here.

Giant Fable

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 636-horse sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7, took multiple Group 1s, banked over $3 million; 4 for 17 dam earned nearly $150K; 3 of 4 siblings won; top kin Fast Tigress won at 2, was G3 placed, banked over $100K; could need experience.

Marywiththeblueyes

Work tab before debut was on the light side, maybe she was just dead short; note the show horse was clear for fun; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the family; top earner Song of the Sword was G2 placed, banked nearly $270K; off rail here, look for bug to send hard and hope for the best.

Aliana

She took the overland route in the debut and got a boost when the 9/15 winner made it 2 for 2 taking an N1X at CD with an 82 Beyer 11 days ago; 1 for 9 dam took a sprint, earned 40 grand; both sibs won and one took a couple of routes; best of 59 bullet locked and loaded, the one to beat.

Rosemarie

Jersey-bred has trained fast since pop and stop debut; 1 for 12 dam cashed in a route; lone half sis to race lost 8 times; could see her pushing the issue, not sure she will be around when the smoke clears.

Miss Lauren Ann

She has a shot to be more on the muscle with the blinks this time; dam out of the money in only out; this is her first to race; note wraps were there for the debut; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Malibu Queen

Never thrilled to see multiple defeats for a tag when runners return to this level; beaten double digits in both of the MSW efforts; trainer has spotted them just fine with limited starters this year but this gal could need softer to shine.

Secret

Street Cry about 8% with debuters in a 319-runner grid; sire won at 2, took Dubai World Cup, banked over $5 million; stakes placed 2 for 14 dam won at 2, earned over $100K; family is solid; all 5 siblings won, 2 won at 2 including a debut winner; four banked 6 figures including multiple SW and near $450K earner Inspired; homebred may need one. By Brian Mulligan

Race 2

Margaret Ownzit

Perhaps the blinker addition and the return to the rail slot can help with her wake-up chances today; first-time claimer turned in an average breeze earlier this month but the trainer involved has been going great guns of late; conflicting signals.

Asserted

That was a useful outing on the turf last month when overcoming trouble to capture the show; previous efforts in Florida this summer were fair and she can be a major pace presence today with an alert getaway.

Lucky Seven

Legitimate excuse to that first defeat; her sire lost only in the Belmont Stakes while amassing 7.61 million; the dam won 5 of 48 and 161K; among the winning siblings is 90K earner Rebel Raider; local work tab is modest.

Pari Nath

Not much to recommend as she has failed at various distances and surfaces; cuts back from a mile effort where she suffered through a wide trip; still cannot recommend as a serious candidate today.

Tuberose

New face in this crowd is from the undefeated Candy Ride who won multiple G1s and 749K (his offspring have scored in 50 out of 377 debuts); the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 240K bankroller Winter Camp.

L'S Escalator

She has yet to race over a fast surface but did show decent prompting ability in the race 2 back over the turf; not a ton of gate speed visible in this event and that can help her prospects here; puzzling item.

Livininthefastlane

Finished well for the place recently but the race featured some very soft middle fractions; her latest half-mile breeze did show improvement, however, and perhaps she can rally in time for a major share once again; entrymate may help set the table.

Charming Eyes

Far back each time at huge odds but the change to the Big A surface (and first visit to the claiming realm) can do wonders; her sire won the G1 Forego and 616K while the dam won 7 of 22 and 77K; this is her only foal to compete.

Keep in Mind

Sheds the blinkers after stopping early last month behind Livininthefastlane; moving off the fence may help but she tries the fourth different rider in as many starts, not the best of signs; cannot recommend at this point.

Optimistic Cat

Beginner was sired by Catienus who scored in 5 of 22 races while notching 370K (his progeny have won 7 percent of their first races); the dam won 1 of 4 and 26K; winning siblings include 41K earner Hidalgo Legacy.

Check the Credit

Displayed much more early foot when stretching out recently perhaps due to the blinker addition; the trainer has scored with longshot turnbacks such as this and the filly may be worth some follow-up based on that fact.

Fourth Amendment

Descendants of Pomeroy, who won 845K including multiple G1s on the NYRA circuit, have won 20 out of 134 initial starts; the dam won 3 of 20 and 68K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; mild upstate work tab on view.

Holly's Sister

Did not fire first time over the green; her sire won a G1 and 2.19 million while the dam was without a tally in 9 attempts; sib to 63K earner Holly Holly; can show more firepower with this class relief and change in surface.

Recovered

Adds blinkers after flashing brief speed in her maiden voyage; her sire won multiple G3s and 662K while the dam won 1 of 3 and 10K; winning siblings include 14K earner Unfinished; the trainer has done well right off the claim. By Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Point Taken

Gets in with his lightest-weight assignment since the Feb win; likes to be forwardly placed going long and when he threw his head at the break of last it produced a 6th-place finish; hopes to sit just off a ton of gate speed while saving ground; career-best Beyer speed figure was posted over a wet-main track which appears to be his best surface doing a rain dance for this; the May-win rider is on Hackleton today.

Hackleton

Wants the front end which is exactly where he was in latest more than 6 months ago but floundered badly in deep stretch showing no run at all on a wet-main track again; has won at longer than this noting his career-low Beyer was on the AQU-Main and showed nothing here 2-back; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who posted a 94 speed figure in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming win; view as a pace presence for part.

Willy Elliot

Adds more gate speed in an event filled with it; was able to sit just off the speed to win latest scoring 2-of-3 victories since the May claim; 50-day absence for a high-percentage fresh trainer; won his only AQU-Main attempt on the lead by 5 lengths; hopes to shake free early then hold off the closers.

Timothy's Boy

Adds even more gate speed in this event while also entered today in a much-easier FL alw. with a $16,900 purse vs. NY breds; last-place finish the last time sent 1 Mile and his only race on AQU Main was November, 2011, a 10th-place finish in a 6F-MSW event; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 72 in an FL-$4,500-claiming win next out while the 3-back runner-up scored an FL alw. win next out with a 69 speed figure; view as an outsider.

Matt and Jesse

48 days since stalking the pace then unable to show the big-late punch displayed in his August-sloppy-track victory; the good news is he can rally in a race loaded with gate speed; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 72 in his next-out DEL-25K-claiming triumph; winless over the track and figures to need a race for a 10%-winning fresh trainer.

Frazil

Projects for an ideal setup with a ton of gate speed to his inside; he should be able to stalk the front end then should be tough to hold off in deep stretch; superb-13-for-27 win record on fast tracks but showed nothing on wet footing 3-back which is the lone issue; is 6-for-17 for today's rider; lone concern is his only off-the-board finish over today's AQU-Main oval was at 1 Mile in 2010 while his field-best Beyer was April, '11 here at 6.5F; the one to beat.

Most Happy Fella

8 weeks since showing nothing when badly overmatched facing stakes rivals; was on the lead in 3 straight races before latest but is in a field loaded with inside-gate speed; 10%-winning fresh trainer and the chances of him pressing the pace wide leaves us with taking a wait and see approach for this.

Itsagoodtendollars

Claimed off a fade and stamina has been a huge issue while likely pressing a hot pace wide for this; 1st time on AQU Main in a year finishing 6th and last when seen here in 2012 which was his off-the-board finish over the track; would need a big-form turnaround for the new barn; backing others.

Dawly

Have to go back nearly 1 year ago to find a bad race on his form and benefits greatly being a late runner in a field packed with early speed; his 2-back runner-up finish looks better since the show runner Beyered 82 in his next-out AQU-20K-claiming win; scored on a wet track in last but has been successful on any type of dirt surface; the pick. By Art Gropper

Race 4

Charlie's Picnic

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 26 starts for 64k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to G1 winner Divine Park (6-9, 612k, no turf starts); 210k purchase is a question over turf but he's already shown us that he has some ability to work with.

Mad Props

He certainly deserves another chance to show us what he can do, but it would have been nice to have seen him show a little more in his career debut, even if a poor start didn't help him; it might be worth noting the presence of Prado aboard another in here.

Tony D

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and multiple G1 stakes placed dam won 5 of 24 starts for 376k, including 1 of 8 turf starts for 190k; this gelding is a full to multiple G1 winner Composure (4-8, 731k, no turf starts) and G3 winner Ready Set (7-35, 807k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 114k).

Master Jordan

He lost his rider in his second turf attempt in his latest outing, and he ran well enough over turf the first time he tried it to merit mild consideration in this spot; that said, a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Shatak

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his first-time starters and with approximately 8% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a dam who won 4 of 11 starts for 26k, and she didn't make a start over turf; despite recent statistics, this is an outfit that is capable of having one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Spartiatis

He's by a fine turf sire and he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Brother Nick (3-12, 112k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 53k); he hasn't shown much through the stretch in his first two starts but maybe the addition of blinkers can help him along.

Bandit Interceptor

He only beat two to the finish in his career debut after going to post at over 30-1 and he was beaten by a number of today's rivals in that race; an improved performance isn't out of the question, but it's tough to give him a favorable push in this spot based on what he showed us at first asking.

Armature

He might need to see a horse like Boss Man take a step backward to have a shot at the top spot, but his first two career starts can be viewed in a positive light; this barn has been rather quiet in 2013, but they have a contender to send out in this spot, and it doesn't hurt to see Castellano aboard again.

Buddy's Tiz

He finished right behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing, and not only was that just his second turf attempt, but it was his first start wearing blinkers; at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Boss Man

His only poor running line over turf was when he clipped heels and lost his rider, and he took a noticeable step forward while making his first start after a layoff in his latest outing; Alvarado has won with 34 of 134 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Secret Bid

He was upset minded in his turf debut when coming up a little short at 35-1 and this colt is out of a multiple G1 winning dam who won 14 of 17 starts for $1.6 million, and she didn't make a turf start; half-brother to multiple G1 winner Smuggler (5-9, 654k, no turf starts) still has plenty of upside to consider.

Town Extension

Fipke-homebred has a good deal of quality to his pedigree, and even though he might be starting to look like the type that might hang around the maiden ranks for awhile, he's shown that he's fast enough to get himself into the mix against these.

Media Kid

He has a chance to prove to be a solid 20k claim for his current connections and he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 5 of 23 starts for 194k, including 2 of 11 North American turf starts for 119k; this colt is a 1/2 to G1 winner Go Between (8-27, $2.9 million, including 5 of 19 turf starts for $1.1 million).

Chollie D

Late running type has had his chances to show us what he can do and his best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to get over on the top contenders in this spot; add in an outside post, and this looks like a tough test for him. By Brian Pochman

Race 6

My Sparky

Mare tries better after running away from cheaper at a shorter trip in her lone Belmont try this fall; stretchout should bother her as she's won going long in the past and her positional lick should allow her to work out a ground saving trip from here; repeat appears within reach.

Currency Union

Speedy sophomore has yet to travel this far but she does have early foot and it should be prominent from this inside draw; just missed on the drop at Belmont last month and maybe that career best number gave her some confidence for the rise back up to this level; her regular pilot ends up elsewhere, but an aggressive push makes her the one to run down.

Dreaming of Cara

Statebred tries open company allowance runners after spending almost all of her year chasing restricted stakes foes on this circuit; 2 of her 3 career wins have come on dirt so maybe the return to this footing helps, but she hasn't seen the winner's circle in quite a long time; limiting her use to underneath in exotics.

Tiz Teresa

Turfer tries dirt for the first time since her weak debut run while going for a new outfit in this spot; filly has been close in each of her starts with winners and her pedigree suggests she deserves another crack on the main track as well as a shot at this trip; with Lezcano taking the call she warrants a good look.

Saturday Nthe Park

Sophomore ran ok in the stakes ranks while making her first start off the barn's claim but her subsequent spin wasn't much; she's picked up plenty of minor awards and maybe she's set to move forward with the regression behind her, but this barn doesn't win many races so it's probably best to limit her use to underneath in exotics.

Pinot Grigio

Took a step back from the Parx fence last time after hitting the board in 7 straight Monmouth sprints; filly may appreciate getting off the rail for her local debut and maybe that helps her get back on track, but the trip remains a question; maybe for a share, but have to side with others on the win end.

Dulcedumbre

Last out Laurel grad makes her local return after that sharp trip score; she'll tackle winners for the initial time in this spot, but she'll get the services of a capable bug and she does enter this one on the improve; now that she's figured things out maybe she'll have another move forward in her and the price shold be much better today.

Tahoe Tigress

She's been idle since the Spa stakes spin in which she wasn't really beaten all that much by statebred stakes runners while trying 2 turns; she was quite good in her first 2 cracks off the barn's claim and she earned each of those big scores at today's one turn trip; her pilot opts to stick with her and she is proven fresh so have to think she returns running; giving her the nod to run them down.

Ruby Lips

The turf experiment didn't work last time and her Belmont trip spin against a stakes field of her peers came off better than 8 months on the shelf so both efforts can be excused, sophomore goes for a barn that has come out firing with its limited starters at the local stand and she did run into some good ones here last year while far from disgracing herself in the process; appears capable of running a much better one in her return to the main track and can't be overlooked. By Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Go Canes Go

A couple duds in May led to a layoff (over 4 months) but that and a return to dirt (fast dirt) did the trick as the son of Grindstone came back firing to finish a sharp 2nd at 23-1 in a race just like this; it's a change of venue today but obviously the level and trip suit, and with that run under his belt he's eligible to move forward, too.

Reaching Out

Son of 3yo champ Big Brown looked good whipping NY-breds on the inner here Feb. 23 and then on this track March 29; however, he was then pretty much eased on turf at BEL May 3, was gone 5 months and ran poorly again in a race like this at BEL Oct. 5; at least there's no layoff and no panicky drop, and he's worked nicely of late; still, those last 2 outings give cause for pause.

Indy Sea

Was gone 14 months and his first 2 starts back, on turf in July, weren't bad; however, things haven't gone so well since in 3 more turf tries; at least there's no drop but it is a change of footing; he's never run on dry land but it's worth noting his lone win came in a race washed off the turf onto a muddy main track...though you have to go back over 2 years to find it.

Sliver and Onions

First try vs. winners, at SAR Aug. 17, saw him chase the pace and weaken; Hushion freshened him, brought him back at this level, added blinkers and got a much better effort as the 3yo ran 3rd; horse he chased that day, Long River, is a wonderfully bred colt who was on the Derby trail early this year; that nice comeback run shows the freshening and blinks got him back on track and there's a nice work since, too.

Freeride

Blasted maidens in the slop at PRX March 19 but you had to be worried when he wasn't seen for 7 months afterward; the good news, though, is he came back sprinting at this level at BEL Oct. 12 and was a very nice 2nd; that was a most encouraging return run; now gets a shot at a route instead but he's seemingly more bred for this than he is for a sprint; 2 solid recent works say he's doing well.

Third Knight

Not only looked good easily beating lesser, $35KB foes at BEL Oct. 9 but now Mr. Mott moves him out of the claiming ranks and to a spot where he can't lose him via a claim; colt got acrack at this calber at SAR Aug. 17 and didn't fare so well but that was before the 2-month layoff; return win hints he's come back much sharper and usually once Mr. Mott gets 'em on the right path they tend to stay there.

Springcourt

Veteran looks back on track now that he's back on dirt; form soured in the winter/spring, then came 3 months off and 3 dull turf races; however, he moved to dirt at BEL Sept. 27 and easily beat claimers, then rallied to win against tougher on dirt again there Oct. 18; certainly looks back on track and it's most encouraging Gullo moves him up in class again, though of course that means facing tougher and he likely needs to turn back the clock to his Beyer performance level of Jan. 16 (88) if he's to beat these.

Nevada Kid

Pressed the pace in a spot like this at BEL Oct. 5, ending up 4th (over 2 lengths behind today's foe Go Canes Go); does have speed and versatility and note his lone local start was pretty darn nice; wouldn't bother him at all, either, if some rains came; very nice work at SAR Oct. 26 says he's doing well for Trainer Nick. By Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Two Step Swag

Half-brother to Classical Fashion (6-29, 162k over turf) showed some early interesting before tiring in his career debut but he'll have to be ready for a much improved performance if he's to prove to be a player in this spot; perhaps an early pace factor only.

Billypaysthebills

He stepped it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in his turf debut at second asking, and it is interesting to see that he's attracted his share of wagering support in his first two starts; 75k purchase goes out for a capable win-early barn and maybe this colt still has more to show us.

Al's Gal

It would have been nice to have seen him show a little more in his career debut, but he's by a fine turf sire and that was a tough group of maidens he faced; runner up from debut won next out at Kee in a G3 with a 78 Beyer, and third finisher won next out at Bel on 10/3 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer.

Gumper

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won once from 12 starts for 27k, and she didn't make a start over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Love Those Boots (3-20, 133k, including 1 of 10 turf starts for 57k).

Cadaques

This barn isn't known for having them geared up at first asking, so an improved performance isn't out of the question; this colt is out of a minor stakes winning dam who won 4 of 15 starts for 79k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 71k, and he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes placed Cuaba (4-16, 208k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 42k).

Go Shining

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and dam won once from six starts for 38k, and she didn't make a turf start; this really isn't a soft looking bunch of 35k MCL's and this is a demanding distance for a firster.

Aunt Ruby's Kitten

He was a beaten favorite in his career debut and he ran well enough that day to give him a competitive look against these; he's by a strong turf sire, adds blinkers, and Castellano has won with 49 of 167 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Ransom Paid

Tough to have confidence in him based on what he's shown in his first two starts, and that includes a start over turf at second asking; however, he is out of a G3 stakes placed dam who won 2 of 18 starts for 154k, including 2 of 17 turf starts for 149k.

Kenai Warrior

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his turf starters and dam won once from 15 starts for 27k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 22k; this colt is a 1/2 to Gone Rogue (1-4, 5k over turf); he has the look of an outsider.

Backstretch Lady

She looks like a solid fit against competition of this caliber and she's out of a dam who won two of five turf starts for 74k; she owns enough early speed to get herself forwardly placed right from the bell, and feel that she's eligible to be involved in the running throughout.

Dynamic Chime

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to Roddickton (4-17, 131k, including 2 of 9 turf starts for 66k); obviously his debut wasn't much, but he does have a turf leaning pedigree.

Something's Coming

He's tough to endorse after two starts but he is out of a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 24 turf starts for 346k; third place finisher from latest won next out here on 11/10 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 69 Beyer.

Pared

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was winless from just one start; this colt is a 1/2 to G2 winner Spice Island (7-28, 487k, including 4 of 16 turf starts for 389k); he goes out for a capable turf barn and it's interesting to see Rosario get the call.

Amelia's Wild Ride

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; he has some early zip, but a much improved overall performance is needed if he's to prove to be a threat in his turf debut.

His Freedom Reigns

Live Oak-homebred is eligible to be ready for better the second time around and he's a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Hide and Chic (5-18, 442k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 79k) and multiple stakes placed Saoirse Cat (4-25, 184k, including 3 of 15 turf starts for 109k); Alvarado has won with 34 of 134 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Gaining Ground

It's fair to question what most of these are capable of racing over dirt, so this might prove to be a decent spot for this colt to drop into if this race has to be taken off the turf; it looks like he tuned up with a solid five furlongs over the Belmont training track on November 6 in preparation for this. By Brian Pochman