Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 13, 2013

Race 1

Flowing Mane

His lone victory was against 25k maiden claimers and he looks like he's going to need a career best effort to get the better of the top contenders in this spot; like the inside post for him, but he looks like more of an outsider.

River Tune

He's developed a nice level of consistency since moving into this barn and like to see that Castellano has gotten a chance to get to know him, but he's probably going to need to dial it up a notch or two to have a chance at something more than a minor award.

Saved the Best

He's run well in back-to-back starts since moving into this barn and this looks like a favorable spot for him to land in; he needs to avoid falling too far out of it through the opening stages like he did in his latest outing, but he has the look of a top contender.

Two Seventeen

He's eligible to be an early pace player in this event, but his better races have been run over dirt, and he's going to need to improve over what he's shown in his three turf starts in order to have a say in the outcome.

Deferred Asset

His most recent race was one of his better performances, but that was going one turn and seven furlongs, and he might not be at his best going a two-turn mile; prefer to look in another direction.

I'm Wide Awake

He's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his recent starts and a case can be made for him being slightly sharper sprinting than routing; willing to consider him underneath in the exotics, but looking elsewhere for the top spot.

Beeliner

His better races have been run over dirt and he's seeking his first 1-2-3 finish over turf; not that he'll find himself in a soft spot if this race has to be moved to the main track, but feel that his chances can be upgraded in that event.

Majestic Jess (IRE)

Maybe there's something to be said for Ortiz piloting another in here, but this gelding ran well in his first start for this barn in his latest outing, and Arroyo has been getting live calls from this outfit; must consider.

Craving Carats

He's shown the ability to produce a performance that is strong enough to make him a player in this spot, and like to see that he can run his race from both on and off the early pace; feel that he deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Odeon

Lightly raced 4-year-old has plenty of turf in his pedigree and it might be a good idea to look for him to give a good account of himself as he gets ready to make his second start back from a layoff; Moss-owned gelding has a competitive look to him in this spot.

Northern Tripp

Late running type looks like another in here who will have to produce a career best effort to have a say in the outcome, but he was last seen in a productive race; winner won next out at Bel on 10/25 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 35k OPC's with an 84 Beyer and runner up won next out here on 11/3 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. N1X rivals with a 79 Beyer.

Half Wildcat

In a race where it looks like the winner will earn a Beyer Speed Figure around 80, this gelding has topped out at 67 through his first nine starts; he looks like more of an outsider.

Risk Management

Interesting to see him getting ready to make his first start after a claim for a barn that has been very live the past couple of months; he's out of a multiple graded stakes winner who won 6 of 19 starts for 597k, and three of her wins were earned routing over dirt; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 7/5 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 35k claimers with a 76 Beyer.

Barrister Jim

He's run well in three consecutive starts prior to this and he's making his first start after a claim for a barn that scores well in that category; this looks like a favorable spot for this gelding to get to make his first start for these connections.

Petrocelli

Stakes placed runner needs to bounce back from a performance that was well below par for him, but if he runs the way he did just two and three starst back, he can prove to be a player in this spot.

Bemata

One of two live looking horses signed on in here Main Track Only for the Rice barn, and if Saved the Best scratches, he'll boast the best last race Beyer Speed Figure all by himself; he becomes an obvious threat if this race gets taken off the turf. By Brian Pochman

Race 3

Edie

Done awfully well in 2013 - 5 starts, 5 top-3 finishes including 2 wins; that being said, ALL that work cam eon turf and ALL of it came routing, whereas today we're on dirt and we're sprinting; at least 3 of her 5 wins have come on dirt and daddy was a G1 SW and sired G1 BC Sprint winner Secret Circle; comes here sharp so maybe the move to this footing/trip won't matter...maybe.

D'princess

No way to knock a gal who's won 6 times; OK, maybe there is a way - stumbled at the start, chased the pace but hit the brakes pretty hard as the 6-5 favorite when last seen at BEL Sept. 26; good news is she's been freshened and here's no drop - in fact, they claimed her for $25K Sept. 1 and now she's offered for a hefty $62,500, so if someone wants her they have to pay top dollar; plenty of speed and and the works hint she's feeling pretty darn good for her return.

Candy and Thunder

Yu have to go back to Sept. 2012 to find her last win, though at least it came on dirt, sprinting and in a stakes, albeit on the FPX bullring in SoCal; ran well on SA turf April 20 but the pattern since is worrisome - 2 months off/dull race at CRC/another 5 months off; at least there's no huge drop; in fact, they claimed her for $40K April 20 and now she's offered for $62,500; certainly capable of better than her last and maybe the layoff can snap her back to life, though it's a bit worrisome that she worked Sept. 5 and then not again until over a month later (Oct. 10).

Magma (GB)

Showed talent in England to be sure; trouble is, her best work came on synthetic and even her turf form there wasn't much - and her U.s. debut a few weeks ago at BEL came on turf and wasn't very pretty; still, it's first time turf so that's a new hurdle but at least Esler isn't giving up on her - there's no panicky drop and she's not offered for a tag; still, her best work came going longer and as noted, it's different footing today, too.

Trail Walker

Not only game beating a nice bunch at BEL last month but that run was flattered as 2 she beat that day came right back to win; trip and footing are right up her alley and note Rice claimed her for $35K 2 back, did NOT offer her for a tag Oct. 9 and again does not risk losing her via a claim; solid work since and Saez stays put; plenty of positives.

My Place Anytime

Won 3 of last 5 and the 2 losses, while not smart efforts, came in stakes, so she may have been in a tad too deep on those 2 occasions; dueled, opened up and prevailed at PRX Oct. 26 and you know she's a pro as she's won 9 times, and you don't do that by accident; offered for a tag, yes, but it's a big tag so it's not as if it's some fire sale or anything going on here; still, it's first time over this track and it's no easy spot, either.

Heir to Dare

Looked like a new gal at BEL Oct. 18 as after 2 moths off she came back and blasted $20K claimers by10 3/4 lengths; earned a bit Beyer (81) and Galluscio not only saw fit to claim her (19% off a claim) but now more than TRIPLES her in value, which is a great sign - it speaks of optimism and tells others that if they want to claim her they're going to have to pay top doller; must deal with new surroundings but she's handled BEL dirt, MTH dirt and GP dirt so odds are she'll handle this place. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Gloria Victoria

Unlucky filly should have gained some important conditioning in her comeback race over the turf; she had unfortunate race flows in both main track efforts but now must deal with this tricky rail slot; expert rider can negate that fact; difficult call overall.

Countess Twice

Newcomer was sired by multiple G1 type Utopia (whose offspring have won 6 of 119 debuts); the dam, a pure sprinter, won 10 of 24 attempts and 378K; among the winning siblings is 14K earner Magical Blend.

Prize Taker

Has shown some early speed thus far and perhaps this turnback will help her cause; had a difficult time of it the last try at seven-eighths and lands into what appears to be a light field; vast upgrade to the latest training track breeze.

Rock N Cozy

A trifecta player's friend but still cannot endorse her as the one to key on top; her best lifetime effort was over a sloppy track; would increase her prospects for yet another money finish if that is the case at post time.

J Rose Gal

Sole main track appearance was in an off-the-turfer; the blinker addition last month did not seem to help with the endurance levels; she is aided by the fact that this field comes up fairly paceless; still might be struggling in the final furlong.

Live Life Fast

Boxcar post positions in the last pair did not help her prospects but this surface transition might; her sire won multiple G1s while the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 84K earner Sounds Familiar; do not overlook.

Outer Orbit

This firster hails from Western Expression who went 3 for 16 earning 140K (his progeny have won 14 out of 234 initial starts); the dam won 3 of 11 and 94K; among the winning siblings is 218K earner Golden Galaxy.

Lloyd Harbor

Quit early in her only start over the green; her sire won multiple G1s on the main while earning 698K; the mom won 2 of 18 and 87K; winning siblings include 59K earner Karakorum Holiday; can make an impact at a price.

Madison V.

Solid showing a month ago especially since she lost plenty of energy prior to the start; despite moving back up the ladder to the special weight setting, she figures to be an early presence at the least; major gaps between races remains a concern.

Fujiana

Comfortable outside post can help with her turnback bid today; she ran a solid race from a similar point of departure 2 races back; seven furlongs may turn to be her ideal distance; worth some following up here. By Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Howie's Tiz

Draws the fence for his first local start and maybe the new shades well help bring out some lick in this colt; barn calls upon another new pilot for a runner who ran his best fresh in the past; maybe for a minor share, but he'll need to get more involved early.

Secretive

Phipps sophomore tries dirt for the first time since failing as the chalk at the local trip a year ago, nearly to the day; he's burned a lot of cash on the green since but he wasn't far off the winner at the wire in his Belmont finale and he breezed there earlier in the week as if he's ready to get back to the main track; though he's had his chances he's one to consider.

Snifter

Hood goes on for the step back up to this level in his first start off the claim by an outfit that does well with this type; surprised his original outfit gave up on this 875K yearling but after just one start, especially since it came as a baby and against a pretty talented winner; dam was a 3 time sprint winner and she dropped several multiple winners including G1 SW router and 646K earner Sweet Symphony.

Winter Games

Changed hands after sticking at the back of the pack the entire way in his Monmouth debut this summer; gelding is out of a G1 SP dam who banked 376K and dropped G2 SP, local Busanda winner Captivating Lass who has earned 133K in her career; maybe the new Lasix helps her show more at what will be a more enticing price.

Bellamy Chief

Tired late while stretching out in his turf debut first time under this outfit's care and now he'll get back to dirt; dam's 3 other foals to race were main track winners and 2 of them won routing so maybe today's conditions are a little more to his liking; barn hits at a nice clip second back from time off.

Red Supreme

Offered some late run in each of his 2 turf starts and now he'll give dirt a try in his return from more than half a year on the shelf; colt is kin to a couple of limited main track winnners, but his sibs' records are a combined 2 for 68; prefer to side with others on the win end.

Clever Story

Drew the fence first out across town and ran ok for third money at that sprint trip, earning a number that fits well in here; he's kin to a handful of winners including a couple who won routing and G1 SW sprinter Yes It's True, who banked over a million, so he's got a right to get better; he'll get the circuit's top pilot for this, but the guy who nosed him out last time returns in this spot as well; contender.

Supreme Commander

Didn't hit the board in any of his 3 starts, most recently behind a short priced winner on the dirt across town last month; dam was a champion turfer, but each of her 3 other foals to try the dirt was a multiple main track route winner; price will be right to give him another shot to run to his pedigree, if so inclined.

Alysaro

Showed some speed before backing out of it when stretched out to this trip on the rise to the level in his Belmont finale; he'll move to an outside slot, but maybe he offers lick again in this spot as there doesn't appear to be too much of that commodity signed on; don't know how long he'll last, but he can prove a pace factor.

Moonluck

Runner up in his 2 sprint starts draws outside for the stretchout in his first local start; barn's runners do well when trying more distance and though the dam's side of his pedigree may suggest he won't be as good going long, he's hung in there late in each of his shorter tries thus far; they'll have him to beat. By Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Fancy 'n Flight

Defeated 2 runners combined in 2 losses including the debut on grass where she finished last; goes from open-maiden claiming to NY-bred MSW while very active making her 3rd-career attempt in 33 days; trainer is 1-for the last-48 with 2YO starters.

Flying K C

Exiting sprints figures as a major-pace presence adding 3F onto the distance of last; freshened off the 90-day absence which looks a lot better since the runner-up finisher posted a 64 Beyer speed figure in her next-out win then a 77 capturing a 100K BEL-stakes; her trainer is 0-for the last-25 with sprint-to-route starters.

Burndownthetown

Expected more 55 days ago when outrun in the debut with a mild worktab for start 2; super-31%-two-year-old trainer yields 2nd-time starters at a 24% clip so improvement is anticipated for this and a good sign the debut rider stays here too; contender.

Summer Solo

Sire is 33-for-326 with 1st-turf starts; 15-186 with 2-year-old debut runners; stakes-winning dam took 1-of-5 grass races in North America (41K) and went 3-for-11 overall (85K) producing 3 winners from 4 other foals to race; all 3 foals to race on North American turf are winners including 145K-turfer-SW Adirondack Summer (2-for-9).

Willow U

Sire is 3-for-59 with 1st-turf starts; dam finished off the board in her only grass start; 3 of 6 foals to race on grass are winners including 135K-turfer Russian Sage (3-for-19); showed some talent in the debut but has plenty to prove off latest.

Archer Queen

Was screaming out for more distance in a key race where not beaten that far and gets the added yardage today; the winner, runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 77-76-73 in next-out BEL-100K stakes and MSW wins; steady worktab on display with a rider change the new pilot yields 25%-AQU winners for the trainer; see plenty of upside on the pick.

Takeoff Your Hat

Debut race was a good one bumped at the break then flying home to miss the win by under a length and a half; the workouts for this were not very enticing coming off the 55-day absence but clearly displayed talent in the unveiling; seems the one to beat.

Aviendra

The 1st-Lasix run produced a slight-Beyer improvement but she was badly outrun in both races which makes her an outsider here; the added distance can only help the cause however the trainer's 7%-win rate among 2YOs suggest we take a wait and see approach.

Stephanie's Secret

Sire is 1-for-3 with 1st-turf starts; 3-33 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 2-for-24 dam (63K) who finished off the board in her only grass start; 9 of 10 foals to race are winners; 1 of 4 foals to race on turf is a winner (186K-turfer Double the Energy 5-for-11).

Looksgoodfromhere

Back to turf which is clearly her best surface; was claimed by a 9%-win trainer with this angle she middle moved in latest while holding on well at shorter 2-back; figures as a major-pace presence here; the 3-back winner where she just missed on dirt Beyered 57 in a next-out PEN-16K-claiming win.

Gu Gu Beans

Sire is 31-for-234 with 1st-turf starts; 1-for-4 dam (37K) did not race on grass; 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-4 combined; bettors gave her no chance at 74-1 debut odds then she beat 1 runner home; would be a complete surprise.

Cryptic Comet

Sire is 3-for-33 with 1st-turf starts; is out of an unraced dam; 2 foals to race on grass are 0-for-3 combined; exiting sprints figures to be among the early pace here perhaps pressing it wide; would have to turn things around to land a major share entered today with a declining-Beyer pattern;

Kelly's Prize

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when rallying well at shorter; she raced evenly at 1 Mile 2-back but she can handle her longest-distance test ever while overcomine today's ground-losing post position?: Takeoff Your Heat beat her 2-back and is the one she would have to get by to graduate today.

G Note

Rallied well from next-to-last in the debut and some hope with a better-gate break she could start her late run earlier while the added 1.5F is a plus; working forwardly for this and some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out.

Fee and Sugar

Main Track Only entry adds blinkers for the 1st time with a chance to move forward 2nd time off the 64-day absence; the 1st-blinkers angle has not been a strong-win move for the trainer (11%) but she did show signs of improvement in last when racing evenly.

Shades of Indygo

MTO would be a major player on dirt if can just repeat last show finish at huge odds; her workout for this won't do much for the confidence level but she beat the other MTO Fee and Sugar so is rated above that one here; Cryptic Comet has also raced well on dirt and would be a contender if this moved off the lawn. By Art Gropper

Race 8

Merry Meadow

Runner up in her last 2 returns to a venue at which she hit the board in both of her starts; she's got speed so she'll likely be gunning from the inside draw, but there's a good amount of speed drawn outside her so she'll need to work hard every step of the way.

Ultimate Shopper

Tough to be ant more impressive than this well supported gal was first out at Belmont but she didn't scare many away as she tackles winners for the initial time; gray has continued to work well in the interim and with speed drawn to both her inside and out, maybe Lezcano is able to take hold of her early on the slight cut back to this trip; anything close to her debut makes her pretty tough to beat at a short price.

Here's Zealicious

Mare has early foot but she returns from Parx off another poor finish; her form over the inner last winter was very sharp, but those came over statebreds and her last couple of tries against open company runners make it tough to get excited about her chances of staying in this spot; keeps things going up top, but doubt she's around at the finish.

My Place

Ran to her tote support first out across town and after being given a little bit of time to get over the try, she'll tackle winners; filly has been working quite well of late for her return and she does look to catch a field with plenty of lick for her to track; light figure she earned first out should result in a much more attractive price today.

Finesse

She's been idle since failing to go on after making all the pace in her first 2 turn try with winners at Saratoga; turn back to sprint may be more to her liking and she fired a decent one off works first time out in the spring; barn's numbers with returnees are sharp, but this gal's worktab does boast a 5 week gap in late summer.

Brown Eyed Nance

She was away quite a long time before the troubled third place finish against better while making her first start for this barn last time; gray didn't show much early foot in that one and though she's been given a little time since, it wouldn't be a surprise if she needed another one before we saw the best she had to offer.

Quay

Turfer gets back to the main track for the first time since a solid effort first time out at Belmont in early summer; gray should have some conditioning in her and though the barn hasn't done so well of late with this type, she does have a right to be better second back from the break; in a field filled with speed she warrants a second look.

Jonata

Didn't do muchj in either of her 2 Spa turf spins and now she'll get back to dirt for her first start since then; filly was solid on the main track earlier in the year and this barn does excel with its fresh runners; maybe for a minor award at a price.

Carameaway

Statebred returns to open company in her first start back from more than 4 months on the shelf; filly caught slop in her lone crack outside the restricted ranks but didn't do much running in that one at all and hasn't run fast enough to step with the best some of these have to offer; passing on her in this spot.

Erin Enchanted

She's another absentee trying open company after being given time off a poor restricted stakes try; filly's career best Beyer effort did come the last time she stepped on the local main track and this outfit is recently profitable off the break, but the presence of the big debut winner won't make getting back on track easy for her in this one.

Ode to Sami

Ships back up here off another off the board effort, this time at Laurel; she's been stepping against better than she'll catch in this heat and she is the lone multiple local winner in the field; 4 year old ran into several next out winners in her last couple of tries on this circuit and she'll get the services of a capable bug while being offered for the optional tag.

Love Train

Lightly raced shipper starts from the outside slot in her local debut for an outfit that wins here; gray came up short late in her return from 4 months on the bench, but she should be tighter for this one and she will get some pace to track in here; expecting an improved effort for a barn that does a solid job with runners second off the break. By Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Candy Drawer

The stablemate in the debut ran 8th; a bit more keen to run early in last but reality set in quickly; dam was unraced; one of 2 siblings won; that half sister Harmonious took multiple Grade 1s on grass, banked $625K; would be careful here.

Poster Girl

Improving, she's drilled well of late and should be a handful; there is grass success in the family in the form of over $100K earner and one-time grass winner War Officer; note she exited the live race in the California finale; priced.

Pleasant Cat

Miss has been around theline a few times but just not has been able to carry on with the monemtum; backers can point to the fact that full bro and triple grass winner The Thinker banked $130K; must be left in the exotic conversation at least.

Despite Her Form

Holiday's Jewel exited 2012 closer to graduate next out, and she beat $40K optional foes 6 days ago here with a 62 Beyer; winner 7/26 last year has won 4 times since, the last in the Grade 3 Cardinal last Saturday at CD with a 92 Beyer; several siblings tried grass to no avail; seldom thrilled with runners in this league after they lost for a tag.

Severine

Mirror races so far and neither was pretty; dam was unraced; this is her first to roll; she better start running if she wants to pay back her $175K purchase price.

Hummingbird Hill

Was in kind of tough on the cut back 2 back, now is back with the original pilot; both of dam's wins came at 2 on dirt sprinting; 4 siblings tried turf to no avail but one did bank nearly $140K; contention goes long.

Giant's Jewel

5th, 6th and 8th finishers 8/2 graduated next out and the winner repeated in a $35K claimer, then was a distant third in a $100K stakes; miss has much more speed than she just showed; should at least muddle the pace.

Atlantic Dream

She has a right to be more on the muscle with the blinks added today; Feb. 1 place horse graduated next out at this level, lost next 7; connections would love to see this gal start acting like top kin, multiple grass SW and near $700K earner Wild Promises; respect.

Magical World

Shug gives the bug a shot and would expect rider to send hard and hope for the best; she has some work to do to match top kin Trophy Wife, a double stakes winner and near $185K earner; steadied in last, must hurry.

Cat's Claw

Despite defeats, she has shown a decent turn of late foot; stakes placed 2 for 13 dam banked nearly $100K, lost only turf try; lone half bro to race was 2nd in best result; surprise package.

Zamquick

Was getting to the winner while racing 5 wide; dam was unraced; 2 siblings tried grass but failed to win on turf, one took a stakes, earned over $100K; trainer is very potent with second shooters.

The Blonde Peque

Off a career Beyer and looms yet another legit threat; family is solid; 6 of 7 siblings won including a grass winner and G1 winning over $500K earner Funny Moon; can't fault those that give her another shot at glory.

Hope Rules

Like the series of drills since the Delaware education; dam was unraced; stablemate seems a tad more potent.

Lunar Surge

She has been pretty consistent and considering the winner was clear in last, the race was not all that bad; 8/19 winner took an N1X next out, then was 2nd beaten 3 1/2 in a $100K stakes; a couple of siblings won in the minor leagues sprinting; soph may be compromised by the slot here.

Aliana

She took the overland route in the debut and got a boost when the 9/15 winner made it 2 for 2 taking an N1X at CD with an 82 Beyer 10 days ago; 1 for 9 dam took a sprint, earned 40 grand; both sibs won and one took a couple of routes; the one to beat if she gets a chance to suit up. By Brian Mulligan