Aqueduct: Closer Looks for November 10, 2013

Race 1

Marie Antoinette

Hopes to sit just off a hot pace today while saving ground; debut near-miss finish represents a field-best Beyer speed figure racing strongly at today's distance which is a tricky-stamina test for any 1ster; the barn nails 37% winners with 2nd-time starters an improvement is likely; away 58 days with a mild worktab while moving all the way inside; plenty of upside off the debut race; scary if ready.

Mobilize

64 days since outfinished at shorter when bet hard 1st turf; the Beyer for latest came back light and the effort did not give the impression that adding 1.5F would be an advantage; mild worktab on the dirt for the comeback try; view as a pace presence.

Fortheloveofnell (IRE)

Sire is 9-for-48 with 1st-turf starters; 8-53 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-for-9 Group 2-placed dam (36K) who produced no winners from 2 other foals both were defeated on grass; posted a steady worktab for her 12%-winning-1ster barn.

Truly Mizzed

Outran her 12-1 debut odds when 2nd best and gave the impression that she could hang in there at any distance; the trainer is 1-for the last-16 with 2nd-time starters so iffy if she moves forward in a big way for this; the dirt workouts were solid and should be rallying well into a hot pace

Irish Score

Sire is 16-for-125 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-1 grass dam; no foals raced on turf; lost ground from stretch to finish in latest-dirt sprint adding 2.5F onto the distance here which is a huge concern; a mild-dirt worktab for this does not add to the appeal on this pace presence.

Gumdrop

Sire is 52-for-439 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-2 grass dam (1K); 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-2 combined; declining-Beyer speed figure pattern on display with stamina a serious concern streching out to longest-distance test ever today.

Shy Society

Taken off the pace in last but moved too soon then missed the exacta by a nose; raced right on the lead 2 back but catches a field top heavy with pace; needs a well-timed ride while getting in with her lightest-weight assignment ever she figures to be forwardly placed wide.

Tizarocket

Friday was 4-1 morning-line odds in a MSW event at 1 Mile on AQU dirt; sire is 27-for-357 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an unraced dam; 2 foals to race on grass are 0-for-2 combined; if in adds more gate speed in a race filled with other early zip.

Camryn's Gem

Sire is 61-for-494 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an 0-for-1 grass dam; 1 of 3 foals to race on grass is a lawn winner (1-for-8 Me Love 79K turf); the Beyer regressed 2nd-time out which is never a good sign; middle moved in the sprint debut vs. the runner-up finisher who graduated next out in a BEL-MSW with a 70 Beyer.

Lauded

Sire is 24-for-269 with 1st-turf starters; 38-378 with 1st-time starters; is out of an unraced dam; 3 of 5 foals to race on grass are winners; 1 of 2 foals to race on grass is a winner (2-for-5 Brave Tin Solider 111K turf); the 1-for-47 debut trainer leads me to back others.

Spanish Gold

Main Track Only entry flashed gate speed when sent long in last and for the 2nd straight start disappointed her backers who made her favorite in the wet-main-track debut; a wet oval produced her best Beyer; Truly Mizzed and Tizarocket would be the major dangers if this is taken off turf for dirt.

Race 3

Onecats Chance

Fine improvement when stretched out to the mile last month; draws a tricky post at this particular distance (thus far at the meet, runners breaking from the rail in dirt sprints are 1 for 13); will have to get into the race sooner today.

Shot to Win

All kinds of trouble in his last assignment yet he still finished midpack; his sire won 4 of 19 and 219K while the dam won 10 of 42 and 275K; there are no winning siblings to mention; can rebound with a clean getaway and journey.

Solengo

Chronic maiden has yet to finish in the money and failed to show anything in the last main track effort; workouts last month are nothing special and he cannot be endorsed as a serious candidate this afternoon.

Bird Hunter

Newcomer was sired by G1 type Forestry who scored in the King's Bishop and whose offspring have won nearly 11 percent of their debuts; the dam won 6 of 20 and 197K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Cat Man Fu

Makes his 37th start in these ranks and is hard to recommend; has earned minor shares at big odds in the past and may be worth some trifecta use based on that fact; actually won a race earlier this year on the inner dirt only to be disqualified; watch for him next month when racing returns to that surface.

Here He Fitz

Has extensive experience at the mile and may appreciate this cutback of a furlong; last appearance here was a fair showing over an off track; lost to a blowout winner in his latest run at Belmont and is much better than the running line suggests.

Bajan Summer

Firster was sired by Breeders' Cup sprint winner Speightstown who amassed 1.25 million and whose offspring have won 58 out of 357 initial starts; the dam lost her only attempt; winning siblings include 477K earner Exclamation.

Native Singer

Exits the same trouble-filled affair as Shot to Win while going to post as the clear favorite; wider post today can afford him a chance for a clean stalking trip and perhaps he can finally atone as a result; another short price is certain.

Jesses Giant Dunk

Scheduled blinker removal can help him relax off the leaders and unleash a better charge at the midway point today; best lifetime effort was at seven-eighths and he looks like a comfortable fit against this group; worth some inclusion.

Escape to the Moon

Very dangerous today if able to clear the field without difficulty; his sire won 1 of 2 and 33K while the dam won 5 of 20 and 184K; among the winning siblings is 77K earner Towering Moon; encouraging training track workout 6 days ago.

Race 4

Lady Liana

Starts from a tough inside draw for a barn that's been on a poor run with its newcomers; sire gets 11% first out winners and the dam's 3 wins all came in hurdle events prior to dropping a limited turf winner; most recent gate drill suggests she does have a little bit of early foot and that can't hurt from here.

Pieces of Speight

One of just 2 in here with race experience didn't do much on the Belmont lawn in her unveiling though she was caught in a wide path; maybe the addition of shades will help her get more involved early and they did pay a pretty good amount for her at auction last year; limited turf winning dam dropped 2 main track sprint winners from 3 other foals to race.

Compass Rose

She's the other runner in here who has made it to the gate and she did at least show a little bit of late interest in that shorter sprint heat; filly gets Lasix for this and she did breeze well the other day in preparation for her second career start; barn's had some recent trouble with runners who have had a race, but this gal is kin to 3 winners including 126K earner Carsoncityrose who won 8 sprints, so it wouldn't be a surprise if she were to take a good step forward with the initial experience behind her.

Running Wild

Sire gets 16% debut winners from his offspring and the dam was a G3 SW sprinter and 168K earner who dropped 4 multiple winners including G2 SP, SW router and 784K earner Cherokee Artist; barn is profitable with its newcomers.

She's Alex

Sire gets 7% winners from his newcomers and this gla is the first foal to race out of a dam who won 2 sprints and banked 82K; Monmouth drills aren't much and the barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck right out of the box.

Rosedale Arch

Sire hits with 10% of his first out runners and this filly is the first foal to race out of a SW dam who banked most of her 396K career earnings on the lawn, but she did win 1 main track sprint; barn hasn't had much recent luck at all with its debuters and the drills don't suggest this gal has much speed.

Full of Sugar

Sire hits with 13% of his debut runners and the unraced dam dropped winners from each of her 5 foals to race including 3 sprint winners; most recent drill from the Belmont gate was solid and though the outfit doesn't do so well right out of the box they did saddle a debut winner at Belmont this fall and it's nice to see a top pilot take interest.

Alexandra's Storm

Sire is 3 for 25 with his firsters and the unraced dam dropped 6 winners from 7 foals to race including G1 SP sprinter and 279K earner Desert Key; she's been well prepped for her unveiling and the barn can win first time out.

Mumtaazah

Sire gets 12% winners right out of the box and the dam won 1 of her 2 career starts prior to dropping 4 winners including G1 SP, G2 SW turf router and 969K earner Bourbon Bay and 970K earner and multiple SW Ginger Brew who won her 6 panel debut; she's yet to travel past a half mile in the morning, but the works are encouraging and the barn knows how to get them ready.

Sea Trial

Sire gets 13% debut winners from his offspring and ths gal's dam was a multiple G1 SW and 1.9 million earner who won her career debut at today's 6 panel trip; her lone sib to race was a limited route winner; the barn doesn't usually have them cranked for their best first out but from a pedigree standpoint this gal has a right to be any kind and if she is that good it may not matter.

Onlyforyou

Sire hits with 14% of his first out runners and the G3 SP dam earned 164K and all of her 3 wins on the green; both of her sibs to race were limited sprint winners; Castellano takes the call for Pletcher who excels right out of the box and the last couple of drills are much improved; would be no surprise to see her firing from the bell.

Race 5

Divine Luck

She's been a consistent performer but she's probably going to need to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a shot at something more than a minor award; respect connections, but going to look toward others.

Can't Explain

She earned a G3 stakes placing as a 2-year-old and it looks like she's be rejuvinated a little bit since being placed over turf three starts back; that said, she will need to improve over her recent form to get the better of these.

Wholelottashakin

Multiple stakes placed filly figures to appreciate the class relief after a steady diet of stakes races and she has to be viewed as being a top contender based on what she's been doing lately; this barn has been quiet in 2013, but they have a live one to send out in this spot.

Dreaming of Cara

She's another who deserves credit for her consistent approach to the game and she's performed well against a couple of today's rivals in recent turf starts; she's one of three signed on in here with a win over the Aqueduct turf.

Dancing for Glory

This filly has a little bit of turf in her pedigree but she's going to need to step it up over what she's shown so far if she's to threaten the top contenders in this spot; it's tough to ignore this barn with their turf starters, but others entice more.

Sandcastle

Her most recent race can be viewed as being the best performance of her career but she was allowed to walk on an uncontested lead and that was a big reason why she stayed involved in the running longer than expected.

Lady of Gold

She's stakes placed racing over turf and she might be looking to try to take it right at this field from the break with the addition of blinkers; like to see Rosario get the call and the runner up from her latest race returned to win next out at Bel on 10/20 going 1 1/8m over turf vs. 35k OPC's with an 83 Beyer.

Ruby Lips

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from five starts, including one turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Like a Gem (6-18, 554k, including 3 of 7 turf starts for 261k).

Silky (IRE)

Maybe there's some concern with regard to the turn back in distance, but this filly has to be considered a very interesting import; she went from beating 10 rivals in her debut to a G3 event, and going to look for her to give a good account of herself in this spot with the addition of Lasix.

Medea (IRE)

She deserves to be listed among the contenders based on what she's shown us in her three starts since arriving in America and she's being reunited with Boyce who was aboard for the easy win two starts back; not going to be at all surprised if she's rallying herself into the mix in deep stretch.

Indian Starlight

She has some early speed to employ and she enters this race off of a career best Beyer Speed Figure; however, she probably needs to see a very slow early pace develop to have her best chance in this spot, and there's enough early speed in this race to generate an honest early tempo.

Mah Jong Maddnes

She's on top of her game right now and the 87 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest effort represents the best last race figure in this field; she has to be respected as a top contender and like to see that she's run well in her two starts over this turf course.

Yes It's Pink

She's only finished worse than third once from 10 starts and she was only beaten a length when recording that fifth-place finish; she recorded a sharp win in her only attempt over the Aqueduct turf, and over the past three years, this barn has won with 31 of 100 starters after a claim.

Ave's Halo

She's capable of putting together a solid performance on her best day but she does appear to be more comfortable sprinting, so today's 1 1/16m distance might not be what she's looking for; add in an outside post, and she has some things working against her.

Pearl Turn

This filly will have the look of a contender if this race gets moved to the main track, but there are a few horses in here who have respectable dirt form, so she will need to show up with a solid try to get the job done.

Race 6

Gold Potion

Sired by Midas Eyes who won the G1 Forego and 616K offspring (his offspring have won 5 of 79 debuts); the dam won 3 of 12 attempts and 37K; among the winning siblings is 53K earner Spyglass.

Alyish

Flashed decent early speed in her turf debut before encountering traffic; her sire won a G2 and 704K; the dam won 3 of 10 starts and 91K; winning siblings include 145K bankroller Alykela.

Transit Express

Cuts back after a fair pacesetting try at seven-eighths; may revert to rating tactics here and move forward; lost significant ground in her first 2 efforts and draws a cozy slot today; should offer decent betting value.

Isn'tshewonderfull

If she can improve upon her performance level of 2 starts back, she can be in the mix here; did not like the wet-fast surface in the last outing and that race is not a true indicator; can be along late for a share here on the turnback.

Raven Rise

Even comeback race last month but more important is the fact that one of her best performances was over the Big A main oval; can be within striking range today but would downplay her chances for an exacta finish if there is an off-track at post time.

Eva Lil

Only one in-the-money finish in all this time but that was accomplished at this oval; showed no firepower at all in her only start since July; very hard to recommend regardless of the soil condition.

Light Weight

Right behind Raven Rise in their last encounter and previous placing was a personal best Beyer; latest local blowout was fairly good and she may find herself closer to the lead today; curious item.

You Take the Cake

Has not come close, before or since, that fine try in late July at Saratoga; seems a better fit at distances beyond this if you scan back to one of her Aqueduct tries at a mile; watch for her on the stretchout in the near future.

Mini Muffin

Trouble handling the turn last time cost her any realistic chance; she has seen the heels of several of these ladies this year and a sudden reversal does not seem likely; third start off the bench theory may not apply.

Candy's Luck

Quit early in the last run when finishing far behind some of these same foes and seems destined for a futile wide trip despite the lighter package; wheels back on fairly short notice but still cannot be endorsed.

Kimmie's Girl

The blinker addition in that second attempt did not help as she has been eased both times; subsequent workouts do not inspire much confidence; her sire won a G3 and 456K while the dam was zero for 5; there are no winning sibs to mention.

Dance I Can

Beginner can be a factor by default; her sire won 4 of 19 and 219K (progeny of Roaring Fever have won 7 of 123 debuts); the dam won 8 of 36 and 100K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Platinum Bombshell

New face in this crowd is from G1 type Golden Missile who captured 2.19 million and whose descendants have won 44 out of 426 debuts); the mom won 3 of 36 and 209K; this is her only foal to start.

Tassinaia

Something intriguing about this lass who is in for a tag for the first time; she attended a swift early pace in the last run before fading and the blinker addition can enable her to dart to command today in this apparently paceless field; playable.

Absolute Paradise

Woke up a month ago at Belmont when rallying strong for secondary honors; she ran fairly well in her sole appearance here and she may be worth some exotic wagering inclusion if able to escape AE list.

Race 7

Lubash

Empire-bred proved he could win in open company in the Fort March in May; consistent, in the exacta in 14 of 31 and he's proven locally; over 3 clear in last in a nice try; could see him sitting 4 or 5 off a legit pace, screaming for racing room late; rates long look in all the slots.

Saint Pierre

Runner was tabbed at 20-1 on the morning line at Laurel Saturday in a $100K stakes when an also; 5th finisher in last took a $75K optional at Indiana next out and the place horse won a $50K stakes at Ellis; respect his speed, but he won't be alone up front; tough to adore after the last fiasco.

Compliance Officer

Gelding encountered live splits last time and just could not keep up; note he lost ground in the drive in the 2013 opener and he's been handled by a number of today's foes; could easily be enticed into using in the gimmicks but probably on the bottom side of the ticket.

Abilio

Been a rough year for this guy; the last win came in a $50K optional; he's lost ground in the drive in 3 of the last 4 races and although he has speed, it's hard to see him clearing here; must find a way to turn the tables on Lubash among others.

Plainview

No secret about this guy's style; he will be send along and play come catch me; only beaten a half in a similar spot two back, the slightly shorter race could be just what the good doctor ordered; this rider was up for the last score and he gave this guy a super rider that day; long gone?

Bombaguia

Bolstered by the big effort in May, connections took a shot in the Grade 1 last time but he pressed the issue on a course he may have disliked and faded into the sunset; May 4 show horse cashed 3 times since, including the $200K Mohawk; key off his tough beat in the Bowling Green last year and he's a legit player; just may rebound here.

Kharafa

Controlled pace and the outcome in the Cole but may not be able to make the top today; he is that type that can adapt as he proved in the July win but must prove he can do that against this caliber foe; after beating only one to the wire, he needs a total rebound to make an impact.

Speaking of Which (IRE)

Finally got that stateside win with the garden trip in Oceanport; like fact that win was off a layoff and he may have just bit off more than he could chew last time; show horse in the shore score took a $12.5K starter handicap next out, lost next several; if you figure he hated the good surface in last, you can build a case for a turn around.

Clear Attempt

Repeatedly proven fresh, she has trained like a Swiss clock for this race for a barn than can get them to fire off an extended layoff; the class is surely there off the Poker score to conclude 2012; 4th finisher in last took a $35K claimer, 7th finisher took a $100K stakes at Monmouth; tacical speed a plus, look out.

Hakama

Runner was 20-1 on the line in the same race Saint Pierre entered, also as an also; only one poor effort this year and he was hammered at the break that day; he closed into the moderate pace last time but splits should be quicker here; the 8/30 show horse cashed next out in a $35K optional with an 86 Beyer; lean toward watching a local outing.

Don Dulce

Huge run off the claim last time when clear by over 4; between foes two back, never a comfortable spot and he may have hated the rail in the poor try in June; could see him getting a nice stalk and pounce trip if the race comes off the grass; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Race 8

Slamarama

Best-dirt finish was in the mud so is doing a rain dance for this; not a great sign that his 1st race after being claimed by former-trainer Pletcher was his lowest Beyer speed figure and worst finish since June; has done zero running on fast dirt ovals to get excited about here if we're fast for this.

Space Traveler

Defeated the 9th and 10th-place finishers from last who Beyered 85-75 in next-out KEE-25K-claiming and TDN-optional-claiming wins; the last dirt start was a 2-turn win snapping an 0-for-4 main-track mark; beat the 2-back show runner a next-out 72 speed figure AP-16K-claiming winner.

Chasing Moonlight

1st race off the claim represents a career-low Beyer when fading to finish last; his 2 wins in 2013 were stalking trips and had that type of journey in most recent but floundered badly after the half-mile marker when crushed by Start Jumping; would be a complete surprise.

Abra

Major-pace presence is the one to catch; last win was when loose on the lead in July which also produced a career-best Beyer for the previous trainer but is 0-for-3 since the claim while turf has not been the answer; the 2-back winner and show finishers Beyered 88-84 in next-out BEL-optional-claiming wins; beat the 3-back show runner a next-out 81 speed figure SAR alw. victor; know him early but unsure about late.

Road Agent

Claimed off a high-win-percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle while coming off his worst finish since March; lone race on AQU Main was a stalking trip and more-than-13-length victory; he did not run a bad race since that AQU romp until latest-dull effort; must show a lot more for the newest conditioner to upset these.

Where's Danny (IRE)

Deep closer is 0-for-3 since the claim; has not fired back to the Beyer of his 1st race off the purchase a distant-show finish vs. the winner and runner-up who Beyered 100-95 in next-out 103K and 100K-stakes wins at IND and BEL; his most-recent USA victory was over a wet-main track and that type of oval would clearly move him up some; on a fast track others appeal more.

Island Sunset

Stalking trips produced both 2013 wins but had that type of journey for latest then had nothing to offer in deep stretch; lone AQU-Main start was a solid-runner-up finish but fired his best shot this year on a fast-SAR dirt track but comes into this event off 3 subpar efforts; have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Tummel

Scored twice much earlier in 2013 and from stalking trips; sat just off the speed in last but is another who could not find his late punch in latest attempt; the workout for this does not inspire noting his best NY attempt was for the previous trainer at SAR while today will be making his 1st AQU-Main attempt.

Hoppy Do

Claimed by a trainer winless with his last 5 first-off-the-purchase runners; just missed in last while 2-back is a career-best Beyer but overall his speed figures are much lighter than this group; cuts back in distance after rallying at longer; figures to sit back early then make 1 run.

Dighton

Exits his lowest Beyer since April and that day made his only career start on today's AQU-Main surface; latest was a big departure from his 2-back BEL exacta finish where he nearly topped his previous-career best speed figure over a wet-main track; needs a massive-wakeup call to land a share.

Start Jumping

Part of the 5-2 morning-line odds entry Friday in a 6F-dirt race for a 72K purse a seemingly tougher spot than this; 2 huge races off the claim including a career-best Beyer 2-back when beating the show runner who posted an 86 speed figure taking a BEL-optional-claimer next out; has only won at longer distances so getting up in time is the main issue.

Reggie D

1st off the claim was a career-best Beyer then showed noting in last when chasing the runner-up finisher who posted an 81 speed figure in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; August winner is now 3-for-3 Beyering 93 in his next-out BEL-OPC win; defeated the 2-back show runner who Beyered 97 in his next-out BEL-OPC victory.

Race 9

Cool It

He has an experience edge over his rivals in here and two of his three turf starts have been respectable performances; he did finish behind a couple of these in his latest outing and he loses the services of Ortiz to Hushhushmushmush.

Campion Lane

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam won 8 of 36 starts for 169k, including 0-for-3 over turf; he's going to need to show more in order to contend and it's not like his pedigree is crying out for turf.

Maybrys Challenge

He took a step in the right direction at second asking and he figures to make a serious bid for the early lead in his first route attempt after breaking from an inside post; he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 3 of 8 turf starts for 124k; third finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 10/14 going 7f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 61 Beyer.

Sole Train

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and this is the first foal from a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 7 of 13 turf starts for 442k; he has pedigree appeal and this is a barn that can jump up with one over turf when least expected.

Mark My Way

This barn does well with horses making their second career start in maiden races and this gelding ran well enough in his career debut to be taken seriously in this spot; this is a barn and rider that team up to win a lot of races together.

Pax in Terra

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 14 starts or 49k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Great Gracie Dane (7-31 330

Hushhushmushmush

He has to be considered one of the more legitimate options to consider in here and Ortiz retakes the mount after piloting the runner-up finisher in his latest race; he only needs to repeat his latest effort to prove to be a player in this spot.

East Bay Lodge

Half-brother to stakes winner Wicked Tune (9-31 282k, including 7 of 20 turf starts for 247k) is eligible to be ready for better at second asking, and it might be a positive indicator to see the rider switch to Castro; he might prove to be a little bit of a price player.

Luv Dakota Skye

He beat a number of these in his career debut and he merits his fair share of respect in this spot off of that performance; he's a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Twice as Beautiful (5-30, 160k over turf) and P.S. I Love You (3-14, 63k over turf).

Pepi's Find

80k purchase is by a fine turf sire but he was outrun at every point of call in his career debut, a race that saw him beat just one to the finish; third place finisher from latest won next out at Bel on 10/20 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 70 Beyer.

Giant Jo

He showed good early speed in his career debut and he didn't totally pack in it through the stretch; feel that he's eligible to improve with that effort behind him, but it might be worth noting the presence of Castellano aboard another in here.

Space Hero

He didn't make much of an impression in his career debut after going to post at just under 80-1 and his connections will hope that the addition of Lasix can help lead him to an improved performance.

Something's Coming

He has some turf in his pedigree and his dam was a stakes winner while winning 4 of 24 turf starts for 346k, but he's obviously going to need to show up with a much improved performance in order to contend.

Forever Utopia

He just missed in his last two starts and he's worth keeping an eye out for in the event that he draws in; he has enough early speed to help him negotiate a decent trip after breaking from the outside and going to look for him to be involved in the running throughout.

Sassy Salsa

He might be able to add some fuel to the early pace fire if he draws in, but he's going to have to be ready to produce a performance that is much sharper than anything he's done so far in order to contend.

Born in Brooklyn

Sire wins with approximately 5% of his first-time starters and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes placed Dreaming of Cara (3-27, 190k, and two of her wins were earned routing over dirt); this is a capable first-out operation.