Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 8, 2014

Race 1

Grace's Honor

Back in just 6 days to face older rivals for the 1st time; the short-return angle yields just 10% winners for his trainer; rematch with Cuckoo House from his did-not-finish debut line vs. the winner who repeated to make it 2-for-2 in a starter allowance with a 59 Beyer speed figure; another new rider seeking answers but would be a complete shocker.

Blue Cherokee

Projects to race loose on on an easy lead then hopes to find the stamina missing from each loss however latest was a career-best Beyer speed figure and near-miss finish 1st time ever on dirt; 42%-jockey-trainer combo for a barn known to win 1st time out with newly-acquired runners; figures tough to catch here; the pick.

Cuckoo House

Has not been able to fire back to his career-best debut Beyer on a wet-main track; steps up in claiming price off a loss which is not a good-win angle; the 2-back winner scored right back in a LRL-16K claimer with a 49 speed figure; the 3-back winner repeated in a starter alw. with a 59 Beyer.

Takajo

3-0-0-1 record since the August field-best Beyer speed figure at longer; willing to forgive latest when making his 1st start in 65 days then catching a wet track when seems best on fast footing; the runner-up finisher 2 back Beyered 77-90-95 in 3 next-out wins including an allowance victory; is the one to beat.

Eight Cents

Love the winners-back to-maidens angle and he was primed for this at longer; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 90-72 in next-out AQU-MSW and starter alw. wins; do not see many claimed off Pletcher do much as he produced consecutive double-digit length defeats for the newest barn.

Mach Seven

Projects as the one who may chase Blue Cherokee from the bell; improved Beyers since claimed and blinkers came on however latest was with front wraps on for the 1st time which is not a good-win angle; off the 2-back fade vs. Zol Zayne have him ranked a tad below the top contenders.

Steve Came Thru

Primed for this at longer with 1st blinkers; has shown little in 2 sprints while latest represents the 2nd-lowest Beyer of his career; gets in with his lightest assignment ever for this; the trainer is just 1-for the last-16 with runners returning in 1-7 days.

Zol Zayne

Not a great sign that his 1st race off the claim represents a career-low Beyer; has never raced this short of a distance but off latest-route fade it should benefit; 34 days away for a high-percentage fresh trainer with a bullet workout for this; his only race on today's oval was an exacta finish; contender. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Brendan G

Caught a wet track when stepped back up to this level last time and ran ok to get third money; he owns some back numbers that fit here and he does seem to like this inner strip a bit; he'll need to be used harder with the move to the fence, but maybe that helps him sit a good spot and get in the mix for a share.

Peaceful Talk

Makes his debut with just a few breezes on his tab though his most recent gate move was pretty sharp for an outfit that's been profitable with this type despite just one newcomer making it to the winner's circle of late; colt is by a sire who gets about 15% winners from his debut runners and the dam was winless from 2 starts prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 14 on the track.

Perfect Stormy

Took no money and did even less running in the local mud while finishing behind some of these first out last month; colt will get a new pilot for this but his barn hasn't won a race in quite a long time; dam was a G2 SW turfer and 541K earner who finished third in her lone main track sprint try prior to dropping 4 winners.

Scotland

First part of the coupling has been graded stakes placed in each of his last 2 and the top 2 finishers of his last 2 went on to against best the rest in last weekend's G2 Gotham here; while he was little match for those foes he looks to fit very well with these non-winners and he worked quite well at his base for his local return; barn names the same pilot on both entrymates so only one will go; he had little trouble handling one turn in the fall and looms the one to hold off if he goes in this spot.

Constantine

His sire gets nearly 13% winners from his debut runners and this outfit excels with its newcomers but they usually work them quite a bit faster than the drills this guy boasts; colt went for quite a bit more than his sire's stud fee at auction last year so they obviously saw something they liked; dam was a 2 time sprint winner who dropped no less than 10 winners including G1 SP, SW and 437K earner I Love Silver, so the family can run some.

Onthewhistle

Barn's other half was beaten at a short price after making all the pace in his first inner track start a couple of weeks back; he does have a right to be tighter with that one behind him and his speed plays out awfully well in this spot; he's twice been run down, but he again looks to be the one they'll have to catch if he meets the starter.

Patty and Nooche

Outside drawn gelding turns back to sprint in his return from the brief break for a barn that does ok with this type; his early sprint tries weren't bad and he should have a little bottom for this one; concern is the lack of a solid clip in front of him and this is the shortest trip he's tried; should be coming hard in the lane but may be left with too much to do to factor for more than a minor share. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Brendan G

Caught a wet track when stepped back up to this level last time and ran ok to get third money; he owns some back numbers that fit here and he does seem to like this inner strip a bit; he'll need to be used harder with the move to the fence, but maybe that helps him sit a good spot and get in the mix for a share.

Peaceful Talk

Makes his debut with just a few breezes on his tab though his most recent gate move was pretty sharp for an outfit that's been profitable with this type despite just one newcomer making it to the winner's circle of late; colt is by a sire who gets about 15% winners from his debut runners and the dam was winless from 2 starts prior to dropping foals who were a combined 0 for 14 on the track.

Perfect Stormy

Took no money and did even less running in the local mud while finishing behind some of these first out last month; colt will get a new pilot for this but his barn hasn't won a race in quite a long time; dam was a G2 SW turfer and 541K earner who finished third in her lone main track sprint try prior to dropping 4 winners.

Scotland

First part of the coupling has been graded stakes placed in each of his last 2 and the top 2 finishers of his last 2 went on to against best the rest in last weekend's G2 Gotham here; while he was little match for those foes he looks to fit very well with these non-winners and he worked quite well at his base for his local return; barn names the same pilot on both entrymates so only one will go; he had little trouble handling one turn in the fall and looms the one to hold off if he goes in this spot.

Constantine

His sire gets nearly 13% winners from his debut runners and this outfit excels with its newcomers but they usually work them quite a bit faster than the drills this guy boasts; colt went for quite a bit more than his sire's stud fee at auction last year so they obviously saw something they liked; dam was a 2 time sprint winner who dropped no less than 10 winners including G1 SP, SW and 437K earner I Love Silver, so the family can run some.

Onthewhistle

Barn's other half was beaten at a short price after making all the pace in his first inner track start a couple of weeks back; he does have a right to be tighter with that one behind him and his speed plays out awfully well in this spot; he's twice been run down, but he again looks to be the one they'll have to catch if he meets the starter.

Patty and Nooche

Outside drawn gelding turns back to sprint in his return from the brief break for a barn that does ok with this type; his early sprint tries weren't bad and he should have a little bottom for this one; concern is the lack of a solid clip in front of him and this is the shortest trip he's tried; should be coming hard in the lane but may be left with too much to do to factor for more than a minor share. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Read the Mirage

Wide in the debut but he is improving; dam earned nearly $150K and carried speed long on grass; top sibling was a proven router in the minor leagues; look for rider to send hard and hope for the best.

Rare Eagle

Freshened for this but lack of speed is an issue; backers can point to the fact there are a couple of proven routers in the tree; with his style, fans have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls apart.

Sublime

Maybe he was intimidated by the rail; he got a boost when the winner last time repeated in a $75K optional with an 86 Beyer; sire won multiple Grade 1s routing; dam won multiple G2s routing on way to over $2.3 million career; this is her first to race; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Perfect American

Guess somebody had to run 3rd in the fog in the mud; sire routed with ease; dam 0 for 8; all 3 siblings won including triple route winner and over $140K earner Tech Fall; not seeing it.

Los Borrachos

Preston Madden was named as owner in Cali; was in the Hall of Fame hands of Mandella out West and he was not disgraced; he chased a promising runner Jan. 4; that runner won next by 15 with a 98 Beyer and is a prime player today in the San Felipe at Anita; 3 of dam's 4 wins were routes; this is her first to race; this runner looks live.

Golden Doc

Cold on the tote and he never took to the surface; sire was a Grade 1 winner routing; dam earned over $100K, won routing once; all 4 siblings won and 3 won routing; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Jimmy Soul

Bothered early in last and he could not show his natural speed; sire was sprint only; G2 placed damdid win routing once; all 3 siblings won, one won routing, top kin Truc's Love banked over $200K; in light and would expect bug to try to send and take them all the way. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Newton Crescent

Aimed way too high in his first start since the claim and is realistically place today; the figure earned 2 starts back, however, is a bit deceptive as he got away with pace murder that day and controlled throughout; bound to be challenged this afternoon unless there are some key late scratches; tough call.

Stopthefever

The gelding has only one victory at this common distance and despite being a proven performer around 2 turns, may have trouble against this group; latest breeze was respectable but still believe he is being primed for a route try in the near future; pass for now.

Won Great Classic

Handy gelding certainly fits the bill as a horse for the course; closed with a nice burst to tally win last month and should receive similar flow today if all of the pure speeds remain in attendance; hard to leave out of your trifecta plans if that is the case.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

Brave in defeat when run down late by the previous entrant; warhorse used to be a respectable one-run closer at this level and he has suddenly found a new first gear; unfortunately, he faces intense outside pace today; would grant him more of a chance if Jeter takes the day off.

Nearly There

Never got into contention against these lads while going to post at gigantic odds; has never been successful at this oval and will likely be viewed as one of the rank outsiders; cannot endorse under any conditions.

Hay Shares

Tries blinkers for the first time and despite the light portfolio, can be in the early mix at the least today; was cooked in a duel in the Mike Lee and previous front-running efforts were sharp; does not draw particularly well today, however.

Dan's Gold

First start off the claim by Jacobson, this gelding exits a very quick affair (no chance against odds-on Marriedtothemusic who enjoyed an unpressured lead on the rail that day); recommend you look at today's fourth race results and see how Dr Disco fared; adjust your enthusiasm accordingly.

Meet the Mets

Has been claimed, and re-claimed, and looked sharp when defeating conditional types recently; does not have the pace profile of some of the main contenders though and will likely have to resort to rating tactics; may have to settle for minor spoils.

Jeter

One of the main keys to this puzzle; comes out of a quick event at Parx where he was part of a 4-way speed duel before failing as the 6 to 5 favorite; important factoid: he broke his maiden over this inner dirt course by more than 8 lengths; major contender especially if some of the inside speed happens to scratch.

Sportswriter

Honest performer might have been compromised last time out by the wide post and racing path (and distance transition); returns to the class where he was an odds-on favorite 2 back and this time Isn'tlovejustgrand should be pestered on the lead; money possibility if track is fast.

Taxplayer

No known excuse when trounced by some of these same rivals and today's extreme outpost does not help matters; has been shut out as far as his inner dirt campaign is concerned and cannot be rated as a major player in this cast. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Germaniac

It is now post time; don't be too harsh about last as he was pushing the envelope to get the distance; he may need to come from a bit off the pace this time; he's trained fast for this in Maryland; and if you key off the 2014 opener, he's a major player; needs a good trip to pull it off.

Geaux Mets

Life and death for that last win; he tried to go long but hooked a nice horse that day; winner of the Runyon has won 2 Grade 3 since, the last with a 96 Beyer; he had dead aim at the top of the lane in last, but could not close the deal; needs a rebound run.

Long On Value

The only poor efforts last year came in the Grade 1s; he has much more speed than he just flashed and if you figure he just needed the last, you can make a case for a move forward; 5th finisher in last took the G2 Swale next out and the winner earned a 101 Beyer taking the Fountain of Youth on 2/22; look out.

Oliver Zip

Seven has been his winning number; note winner that beat him in the Rickles beat the rail since; he has more speed than he just showed but he is also hooking several with designs on the lead; too sharp to ignore, but he will likely need to improve to repeat.

Good Time Henny

Bothered in the debut but he overcame the adversity; he got kind of a weird trip in last; he was close early, dropped back, reached contention at the top of the lane and went on; could envision a trip where he will sit 4 of so off a hot pace, primed to pounce; can't be dismissed.

Hot Heir Skier

Three clear when a tad short in the debut but solid since; like fact he got a feel of the inner strip and although he has natural speed, he could show more with the blinks this time; show horse in last took a $47K NC allowance at Philly next out and the place horse beat $40K starter foes here; legit threat.

Loki's Vengeance

Hooked freak in the debut but no mistakes since; like the way he has extended in his last 2 wins; 4th finisher in last took a $40K starter next out and the 5th finishers beat $75K optional foes on 2/17; contention goes deep. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Mini Muffin

Projects to be part of the pace in a field lacking defined frontrunners; lone-show finish was sitting just off the speed which was the trip she received in latest loss where she showed up with front wraps on for the 1st time since August and overall is 5-0-0-0 with fronts on.

Frosty Lover

Sire is 5-for-38 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 2-for-57 dam (58K) who produced 4 winners fro 6 other foals to race (top earner 152K-Redfoxey Dorothy 6-for-48); the good news is this field lacks superstars; the bad news is the trainer is 0-for the last-12 with 1sters in a maiden claimer; January 27 gate workout was strong enough to tab her as the one to beat.

Chicks and a Pig

Blinkers on is a high-win percentage angle for the trainer; the runner-up and show finishers from last Beyered 49-37 in next-out AQU-40K-16K-maiden-claiming wins; has much to prove off the fade 1st time Lasix and racing over today's track her 3rd straight double-digit length defeat.

Luna Brava

Plenty of time to regroup off the Maryland-MSW loss; gets in vs. NY-breds for the 1st time for the 2nd-career start while dropping into a maiden claimer for the 1st time is considered the biggest-class drop in racing; wish the latest workout was quicker; have mixed feelings.

Pretty Nell

Just one Beyer on the positive side as all the rest are zeroes; 111 pounds is the lightest assignment of her career; her best effort occurred on a fast track which she did not get in latest; figures to stalk the speed then hopes to find the missing stamina.

Sweetest Side

Plenty of upside off her return race being the lone in-the-money finish of career; November, 2012, turf-route Beyer represents a field-best speed figure; that big number was in her 2nd race off a layoff the same scenario for this; if she breaks a little better than last the rest will have a tough time holding her off in deep stretch; the pick

Charming Eyes

66 days since a last-place finish when sent 1 Mile on dirt for the 1st time; today is the 1st time facing NY-bred maiden claimers; her 2-back exacta finish is a career-best Beyer; which filly shows up for this?; gets in with 111 pounds her lightest-assignment ever so assume we will see gate speed off the bench.

Maybry's Fortune

5-0-0-1 record since claimed off a near-miss finish/Beyer-career Top; appeared to be screaming out for more yardage in last and gets some for this; 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 59 in a next-out AQU-MSW win; produced a show finish 3-back vs. the winner who repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 68 Beyer; contender.

Explosive Smile

Declining-Beyer pattern while she wanted no parts of 1 Mile in last she should appreciate today's cutback to 6F; the addition of front wraps for the 1st time in last produced that career-low speed figure; drawn widest so sure to lose ground; was claimed for this price in the debut when defeated by the show finisher who Beyered 35 in a next-out AQU-16K-maiden-claiming win; would be a surprise. - Art Gropper