Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 7, 2014

Race 1

Chrishi

The four horses who finished in front of him in his opener all came back to disappoint next-time out; Brown has a 25% strike-rate with maiden second-timers in routes during the last five years ($1.63 ROI), and his stats with droppers to maiden-claiming company are also solid; trainer/rider duo is 4 for 12 at the meet; contender.

Permanent Campaign

Goes long for the first time here, and the average win distance of Sky Mesa's progeny is 6.9 furlongs; this is the unraced dam's first foal to start; Violette has poor recent numbers with droppers from maiden special to maiden-claiming company, and is 0 for 3 at the meet when using Irad; speed threat?

Percy's Ambition

Checked in fifth behind two of his current rivals in a similar spot at second asking Jan. 9, which was an improvement on his debut; Indiana-bred could be a factor with more forward progress, and is worthy for the bottom of intra-race wagers.

Bridgeville

Stalked an honest pace before fading to finish third in his encouraging local bow at about this distance and price, from which the seventh horse exited to end up fourth for $25K; First Samurai colt worked a quick half-mile the other day, and should make some noise in just his third trip postward.

Alice and Trixie

The lone filly in the field showed speed on the stretchout before tiring after a wide journey in her first two-turn try three weeks ago; she's nicely bred on the dam's side, but is out of her element here from a Beyer perspective; would be a big surprise.

Village Warrior

The likely favorite came wide for second behind a runaway winner when he dipped his toe into the selling ranks Jan. 9; Pletcher possesses good numbers while adding blinkers, but he's 0 for 8 at the meet when using Maragh (five of those runners made the board); Repole Stable runner should be dangerous unless the track is biased along the inside. - Ron Gierkink

Race 2

Exclusive Dani

In with her lightwest-weight assignment ever while adding blinkers both signs that she wants to be on the lead like she was in latest fade; defeated 1 runner combined in 2 losses while regressing 2nd-time out in the dirt unveiling; the debut runner-up finisher posted a 74 Beyer speed figure in a next-out GP-MSW win; view as a pace presence with Rosemarie.

Paris Sunshine

20%-winning 1st -off-the-claim trainer hopes to improve this one as she steps up to her highest-claiming price ever off losses; 47 days since edged for the show money by a runner who Beyered 73 in a next-out AQU-16K-maiden-claiming win; wish the workouts for this inspired more.

Alice and Trixie

Cuts the price tag in half doing the rain dance for this as her best finish/Beyer occurred on a muddy oval; rallied 3-back behind the runner-up finisher who graduated next out in an AQU-50K-maiden claimer with a 50 speed figure; keeps sizzling-apprentice Rice winning 30% for the trainer at AQU.

Lateen

Sire is 5-for-49 with 1st-time starters; is out of a Grade 3-stakes winning dam (5-for-21, 394K) who produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race (top earner-71K Saturday's For Fun 1-for-23); January 27-bullet workout is noted for a 23%-winninhg AQU-jockey-trainer combo although the barn is 1-for-26 with 1sters since 2013.

Sweet Potato

Her only other start in a maiden claimer was a head loss; was overmatched in last and likely bounced in latest 2nd time back off the 48-day layoff; hopes to sit just off Exclusive Dani before getting 1st run on the closers; has talent but the November, 2012, field-best Beyer speed figure was produced on turf.

Rosemarie

Would have to outbreak Exclusive Dani to get the lead which seems her best roadmap to succeed; reunites with the 2-back jockey from her career-best Beyer; the 2-back show runner Beyered 65 in a next-out AQU-35K-maiden-claiming win; down to lowest price tag ever trying to improve stamina.

Kevin's Kool Kat

Wokeup in latest to post her 1st-exacta finish since October; 4-0-1-1 in races at 6F or shorter during career she has been best in races 6.5F or longer; getting up in time is a concern but gets a great pace flow to rally into for this with Exclusive Dani and Rosemarie likely hooking up early. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Trisha's Trove

Went to the sidelines after running third in a Dec. 7 stakes at Tampa--the winner subsequently ran third in the Pasco Stakes, and the fourth-place finisher came back to take an N1X/optional tilt with a 69 Beyer; trainer has weak numbers with new shooters; worthy for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Ausable River

Wired $16K opposition in his latest at Laurel, which came on the heels of his decisive maiden triumph here in another route; he worked a bullet three-eighths the other day, a move seemingly intended to set him up for the turnback to six furlongs; looks dicey at the distance.

Let's Discuss

Got drilled over a muddy strip in a recent $40K starter, after flashing some early foot; homebred has yet to hit 50 on the Beyer scale, and is probably in too deep with these.

Bourbon Therapy

The favorite has been spotted aggressively off a victory in a $40K starter, for which he got a 73 Beyer; the hot bug Rice, who retains the mount, has posted impressive numbers when riding for leading trainer Jacobson; horse-for-course is versatile in terms of running style, and is hard to go past.

Cool It

Went wide over a rail-biased track when a distant fourth in his debut outside the maiden ranks Jan 10, a weak race which nobody has exited to fare well; gets a rider switch to the high-percentage bug Mejias, who has his work cut out for him today.

Madame Wasabi

The lone filly in the field checked in second behind the front-running favorite in a $16K NW2 contest just nine days ago at Penn, in her first try for this trainer; she's light on Beyers for this caliber of competition, and would be a big surprise in her first start around these tight turns. - Ron Gierkink

Race 5

Get Gorgeous

Draws the fence for the rise to open claimers after getting up to beat conditioned foes on the slight cut back a couple of weeks ago; 3 time inner strip winner earned a light number in that score; she was faster over the track around this time last year and maybe the lack of lick in here allows her to sit a better trip from the bell today, but she's going to need to improve several lengths to prove a serious repeat threat today.

Lily Lynn

First part of the entry drops in for a tag after being given some time off the beaten chalk effort on New Year's Day; mare has fired fresh in the past and this barn excels with its runners off this type of break; would like to see her get more involved early, but she looms the one to fear in the lane.

Coast of Sangria

She was in a little tough last time but her front end effort 2 back earned her a number that fits well in this spot; she hasn't won in a while, however, and her inner track slate does leave a lot to be desired; expect she'll be more involved from the outset today and that could help her get in the mix for a share.

Ezpz Lemon Squeeze

Fresh mare tries open claimers after running out of ground in her return to the inner track a few months back; her running style doesn't fit the heat's profile so well and she could again find herself with a lot to do in the lane, but her recent drills suggest she may be able to sit a little closer to the pacesetters this time; worth a look.

Guyana Princess

Other half of the barn's coupling stretches out after sharpening her lick sprinting in her return from the freshening while tackling fellow statebreds over this strip; beaten chalk will face open company in this spot and she's another who hasn't seen the winner's circle in a long time; prefer to side with others and the win end and limit her use to underneath in exotics if she's the one to go.

Sugar Beach

New York bred brings early lick to the table in her first start in 3 months and she looks to catch a field that isn't too swift from the gate; barn does well with its fresh stock and this gal does own an impressive score over the track; expect they'll have to run her down to win.

Wildichi

Outside drawn mare steps up in company after failing to threaten the winner who returns again in this spot; her 2 back score earned her a light number and she's yet to run a figure that fits with the best that her foes are capable of putting up; tough to make a serious case for her in here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Officer Mahaffy

Prompted a slow pace in that second run before fading and finally gets some post position relief; his sire won the G1 Champagne and 804K; the dam was zero for 19 lifetime; among the winning siblings is 10K earner Wonsome.

Metropolitan Storm

Raced very wide in his comeback race of last month; despite failing to finish in the money up to now, the colt is in the hands of a red-hot trainer of late (especially with runners coming back on short notice); may land a share at a huge price.

Campion Lane

Finished strongest among all those coming out of that 2/21 affair; he seems capable of making a similar late charge today as the probable pacesetters in this event drew wide; should be a money presence but will be far less appealing odds now.

Pillar of Strength

Decent try in his maiden voyage despite a bumpy beginning; his sire won 1 of 6 attempts and 75K; the dam won 5 of 37 and 240K; among the winning siblings is 146K earner Landofopportunity; latest training track breeze was an upgrade.

My Uncle Frank

Note the improvement to the most recent half-mile drill; his sire won 5 of 22 and 370K (offspring of Catienus have scored in 27 out of 423 debuts); the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; sib to 182K earner Bishop of Nola.

Scare City

Made the lead for the first time in his career when stretched out a month ago; sired by G1 sprinter City Zip he can fare much better today, his initial try at the claiming level; switches to an apprentice who continues to maintain her fine win percentage.

American Creed

One of the likely favorites based on the last sharp placing while favored; not much pace opposition is on view and the colt is in for a tag for only the second time; should be on or near a soft pace and seems hard to leave out of your trifecta plans.

Granville's Way

Newcomer can be a major presence by default; his sire won multiple graded stakes and 2.24 million (progeny of Sun King have won 5 of 128 initial starts); the dam went zero for 6 and this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Starship Captain

Trainer is 6% winning 1st off the claim since 2013; for the 1st time since his 8th-place career-debut finish removes blinkers while back in just 6 days for the claiming-price increase; was handled by several of these in last and figuers to stalk Majestic Number then hopes to find the missing-late punch; others appeal more.

The Truth and K G

5-for-10 on fast tracks so willing to excuse last pair on wet ovals; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher a next-out 73 Beyer 16K-claiming winner; 28%-winning 1st off the claim barn aggressively drops him more-than half off the even-mud finish when purchased 55 days ago; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 87 in a next-out AQU-starter allowance win; high-percentage fresh trainer adds to the appeal with a steady worktab for this; the one to beat.

Real Estate

Took off front wraps for last which was the 1st time racing without them since a 2006-BEL-7F career-debut win; the equipment changed produced his 1st win since June and best speed figure since September; the short-rest angle is a winning one for his trainer; field-best Beyer was posted September, 2008, gate-to-wire to win a 100K SUF-stakes at 6F on dirt; should be tough to hold off late as the pick.

Superiority

Exits his lowest 2014 Beyer while winless since April losing 18 in a row last taking an AQU-6F Main $12,500 claimer; keeps landing behind similar rivals so is ranked a notch below these; today's 111-pound assignment is his lightest package ever.

Money Only

Great sign that his 1st-start ever with blinkers on is a career-best Beyer speed figure; the 3-back show runner Beyered 84-83 in next-out starter alw. and alw. wins; last victory was on a sloppy race track rallying; the new hood did not improve his gate speed much for last but finished full of run; contender.

Alcomatch

Troubled with an even finish 1st off the claim; still has something to prove with the newest connections; the DQ'd winner and runner-up finisher from last Beyered 96-80 in next-out AQU-optional claiming and 35K-claiming wins; defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 79 in a next-out AQU-20K-claiming win.

Seeker

Projects to stalk Majestic Number to the front then hopes to find the missing stamina; the show finisher from last Beyered 98 in a next-out AQU allowance win; the 2-back runner-up posted an 88 speed figure in his next-out AQU alw. win.

Majestic Number

Projects to own the best gate speed in this event; raced 1st the 1st call twice during career both are wins; rematch with Real Estate who ran him down in latest; lost as favorite 2-back vs. Money Only so has several losses to avenge as the one to catch. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Wraith

Nobody has come out of her slow $50K maiden victory to graduate, and the step up to this optional event is huge; trainer/rider combo is 1 for 3 at the meet, and Friedman is 0 for 11 with second-time Lasix-users over the past five years; mission impossible.

Ballylee

Her stakes debut in the Busher wasn't anything to write home about, but she had a wide journey then in just her second trip postward; trainer had an 11% strike-rate with first-time Lasix runners during the last five years ($1.65 ROI); tri factor.

Sweet Reason

G1 Spinaway winner was one of the leading 2yo fillies on the continent last year, and she tied for fourth in the Eclipse Award voting in the division; daughter of Street Sense has been idle since her respectable showing in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies, from which Ria Antonia exited to disappoint in a G3 stakes at FG won by Untapable, who was eased in the BC; trainer/rider duo is 2 for 3 at the meet; begins her march towards the Kentucky Oaks in this spot.

Aqua Regia

The second Albertrani charge in the lineup attended a slow pace en route to a convincing maiden score when she stretched out to a mile a month ago; has since worked twice, and should be prominent from the outset in a field without much speed; trainer/rider combo is 0 for 4 at this stand; can see her rounding out a skimpy exacta behind Sweet Reason.

Brown Mellisa

Sprinter earned a pretty good Beyer in the mud when second in a recent $40K starter; the average win distance of classic winner Big Brown's progeny is 7.1 furlongs; the dam has thrown just one route winner on the main track, and the average win distance of her offspring is 6.5 furlongs; on the edges. - Ron Gierkink

Race 9

Essence of a Hero

Been bothered early twice; 3 of sire's 4 wins came routing; dam took 3 sprints; this is her first to race; cozy slot, not sure that's the cure all; needs a turn around.

Tom's Vision

Green when an ice cube on the tote; $1.3 million earning sire was sprint only; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Missile Nick

Wraps added for the return, try to get a good look at him on the track; place horse in the 2013 closer graduated next out, was 2nd beaten a half in an N1X here 2/22; 5 of sire's wins were routing; 7 of dam's 19 wins were routes; 2 of 3 siblings won including 6-race route winner Little Nikki; fits in the Beyer department; due.

Privatize

Far from disgraced the other time for this price and the show horse two back graduated next out in a maiden $16K seller with a 74 Beyer; connections would love to see him start acting like top kin and over $260K earner Motor City Mama; must pick it up.

No Nukes

He should appreciate the drop but he's had his chances; note he regressed on the Beyer scale in the last 2nd off the layoff run.

Perfect Dancing

Gelding could not stand up in the off going last time; he caught the repeated in the opener and the place horse in last graduated and then beat $16K claimers in a photo; dam was turf only; this is her first to race; he has drilled solidly for this; still, not seeing it.

Aly's Favorite Boy

Never kicked in the slop; sire was sprint only; all 3 of dam's wins were routes; 5 of 7 siblings won; top kin Aly's Colors took 4 routes, earned over $225K; don't be shocked if he flashes speed on the stretch out.

Yo Bro

Hung outside and not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; dam was 0 for 2; lone half bro took one sprint; he's only beaten one horse in his career; not seeing it. - Brian Millman