Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 31, 2014

Race 1

Sugar Beach

Encountered troubled-gate breaks in last pair but she wants to be on the lead; reunites with a rider who began the AQU-Main meet hot; go back to December, 2012, where she shows a gate-to-wire sloppy-track victory on the Inner Dirt for this pilot; she has also won over today's Main surface; is the one to catch and beat.

Great Gracie Dane

Entered in Sunday's 8th a much-tougher spot in for a 30K-price tag where listed at 7-2 morning-line odds; 2012 field-best Beyer was posted on Inner dirt at 1M and 70 yards; since claimed off a blowout win to begin 2013 she is 5-0-0-1; the good news is her best Beyer for the newest trainer occurred on a wet track; late runner needs Sugar Beach and Rodinia to duel each other into defeat to enhance her late kick; the 3-back winner repeated in a 75K stakes wih an 80 speed figure; seems well placed to rally into the exotics.

Maxana

Seeks the correct level off the 2-back non-winners of 3 claiming score; has won racing on the lead or rallying from off the pace but it was all against lesser; have mixed reviews on wet-main tracks winning to end 2013 vs. lesser then in February in the mud was screaming out for more distance; gets a positive 2-pound weight swing from Rodinia off the more than 12-length loss; has a lot to prove at this grade.

Rodinia

Exits a best-last-race Beyer when dominating on the lead at this grade; gives the runners she just defeated 2 extra pounds for this; couple of strong-positive signs for this; her trainer was off to a sizzlling start at the current-Main meet which just started and she showed up without front wraps on for the 1st time since September then blitzed the field in latest; she won on the lead in last but the wet-track career-best Beyer 3-back was from off the pace; figures to sit just off Sugar Beach from the gate then get 1st run on the closers; the pick.

Kate Is a Ten

Purchased from a trainer who had re-claimed this one; obviously has class questions to answer here losing a non-winners of 2 claimer in last while have to go back to June to see her in as high as a 20K claimer; gets in with a feather for this but has shown little in 2 starts over the AQU Main and is winless on wet-main tracks; a tough call. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Heavenly Girl

Turns back for her first with winners after running away from an overmatched bunch of maidens in her initial route try; statebred is on the improve from a figure standpoint but she tries open company in this spot and will need to take a big step forward to prove any type of repeat threat; have to pass on her today.

Conzig

Took her 13 cracks to get the initial score under her belt and now she'll try winners on the stretchout in her first try over the local main track; mare showed improved early interest last time but the pace was also softer and even on the stretchout from an inside slot she's going to have a tough time making the top in this heat; siding against the repeat.

Brown Mellisa

Gets back in with limited winners after chasing one of the better juvenile females in the country last season in that one's first start of the year; filly does face older here but she may be better at one turn and she handles any type of course condition; with a clean run she can have more of a say in the outcome at a decent price today.

Star Magnolia

Impressive last out maiden grad in her first off the barn's claim stretches out while tackling winners and older foes both for the first time in here; the top half of her pedigree certainly suggests she'll handle the added ground in her current form and there doesn't appear to be too much to go with her early; they'll have to come and get her to win.

Star Empress

Goes first off the claim for an outfit that excels with this type after running away from an overmatched field of maidens on the class drop; filly has been ok at one turn trips in the past and her career best Beyer did come going a bit shorter trip over the track in the fall; with a top pilot getting aboard she's a huge repeat threat but she looks to spot her main foe a big tactical edge.

William'sluckygray

Outside drawn gray wired maidens as the chalk when dropped in for a tag last time and now she'll try both winners and older foes for the initial time; expect she'll be able to find a spot within striking range on the turn back here and she'll likely have a little extra kick in the lane; consider. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Very Cherry Candy

Proven at this demanding distance, like the way she was inching away late in last and note the place horse was well clear; bothered early two back and the place horse that dam cashed next out in a $75K optional with a 99 Beyer; repeat well within the realm.

Magma (GB)

Back to favorite pilot, but she had a tough time in the first attempt at this level; she tracked a pretty slow pace in the win two back, but splits should be quicker here; snappy move on the 22nd, may need to invent a trip to get there.

Your Move

Style no secret, she'll be sent along with a theft on the agenda; hate to see runners give up clear leads and there are some stamina concerns; she has lost ground in the lane in 6 of her 9 races and has never been this far; catch her to greet cashier.

Wild Kay

The is the speed component of the entry; mare has had a nice career and she brings back a lot of checks; despite taking the overland route, she was getting to the winner in last; would have liked to have seen a local work; look for pilot to put her into the race from the get go, maybe just off the flank early of rival on the direct inside.

Seven Dreams

Over 3 clear in a fine try last time; back in a hurry, and it's been a good ploy for this barn; repeatedly proven locally, trainer spotted them just fine last year and slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Golden Rock

The way she extended in last suggests he'll take to the trip; repeatedly proven at this level in Philly, hustling bug strings along and mare could again sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; trainer learned for his Dad who trained Smarty Jones; repeat well within the scope.

Conga Bella

Mare beat rather cheap sellers in her last 2 wins; off the rail this time, would look for rider to try to get her to settle, relax, save ground and then try to make the one run; probably needs to improve to get there in time. - Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Turbin

This gelding has some quality to his pedigree and he's an interesting player while shipping in for this off of some solid recent form at Parx; this is a high win percentage barn and they bring a go-to rider with them; must consider.

Kings Village

He's winless in his last 20 starts going back through 2013 and this has to be considered a difficult spot for him to be trying to end his current losing skid; it helps that he's in a small field, but he has the look of an outsider.

Hoppy Do

He nearly equaled a career best Beyer Speed Figure when finishing third in his latest outing, but it looks like he's going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at something more than a minor award.

Grand Rapport

Grade 3 winning veteran is one of two signed on in here for the Jacobson barn and this gelding was beaten by his now stablemate in his latest start; he gives Jacobson a solid chance at running 1-2 in this event, but it's tough to give this one the nod over Groomedforvictory.

Groomedforvictory

Multiple stakes winner sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, and now he's making his first start for a new barn that shows hitting at a 25% clip after a claim; add in the presence of Rosario, and the fact that he's a bona fide horse-for-course, and there's a lot to be positive about in this direction.

Poliziano

He hasn't run to his strong pedigree and he's had 20 starts to show us what he can do; in a race where it looks like the winner will earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the 80's, or possible the 90's, this gelding sports a top figure of 79; looking toward others. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Royal Suspicion

Three of the 5 wins came at this distance but she has never really been a win machine; check out the 16 slices; 12/20 show horse took a $35K starter, ran out of the money in an N1X fray; no apparent excuse the last time in this league; probably needs to improve to get unsaddled.

Lady Gracenote

Nice effort in the stakes two back, she has won off the vacation and one can build a case she will sit a nice stalk and pounce journey; Franco got a chance to figure her out and runner was over 4 clear in last; forced to check in last; it could be a whole new ballgame with clear sailing.

Miss Da Point

Pace was legit last time and she just could not keep up; she can win close up or from a tracking position and she should have her sea legs under her by now; another slice?

Carameaway

Runner was 6-1 on the morning line here Saturday when she drew post 3 in an N1X spot; this is the speed half of the entry; proven at the trip, she has the 2 races to draw from now and she can give you a :45 and change half if in the mood; going on a year since the last victory; would be careful here.

Dreaming of Cara

Been a long time since she has seen a cameraman; last win came in April of 2012 in a $25K optional on grass; and she beat Princess Mara that day; okay, she was on a stakes diet for most of last year and sometimes horses respond poorly when beaten so many times in a row; looking elsewhere.

Princess Mara

Respect hot claim box item; mare doesn't need the lead to win; she came from 4th and over 2 off the pace beating state-bred $25K optional foes back in the day; miss is comfortable at this distance and at least she kept her legs moving with the drill on the 25th; can't fault those that give her another shot at glory. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Keen On Green

A late foal, she certainly has matured in the last pair of starts and could steal away against this weak lot; she wheels back quickly after a fine course and distance try; if breaking alertly from the rail, she looks like a major player.

Fancy 'n Flight

Raced evenly in her comeback race of 10 days ago; ran against open company in her last route attempt and now can make a late impact if the presumed rail pacesetter sets too fast an early clip; betting value should be there.

Shewreckstheplace

No firepower when facing Keen on Green only 4 days ago; gets a significant weight shift but still believe she will not be a serious threat to the main speed of the race; minor spoils at best regardless of soil condition.

Sugeily

She has shown no enthusiasm whatsoever up to this point; perhaps switch to the main oval will help somewhat but this lass still cannot be viewed as serious contender; pass until more energy is displayed.

Unafraid

Only one defeat thus far, a major accomplishment in this group; she sheds the blinkers and the latest blowout from the gate was a distinct upgrade; her sire won 3 of 16 and 140K (Western Expression was also second in the G1 Carter); the dam was zero for 9; this is her sole foal to compete.

Pari Nath

Decent showing last time out, wheeling back on only 3 days notice; only try at the straightaway mile was against better company and over a wet track (today's likely track condition if forecasters are correct); can earn a share.

Simplie Sinister

Off the board every time with the last pair of defeats at triple digit odds; like others in the field, she may fare somewhat better with the switch to the main oval but a giant upgrade just does not seem probable; pass. - Jim Kachulis