Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 30, 2014

Race 1

Rock Show

Not much to like about this one; since being claimed in October, she has 8 consecutive races in which she has not run better than fourth; has already lost to a number of these rivals while racing in claimers or starters; unappealing.

Mess in a Dress

First start off the claim for Jacobson was a beauty; this one took command, turned back challenge on the second turn, and pulled away late over Go Olivia Go, who will break just to her outside in this spot; is wheeled back quickly by Jacobson - making this her third start since March 21 and her fifth of the month; one would think that puts her a higher risk of regression; faces more pace pressure here than last time.

Go Olivia Go

Was closer than usual last time out of necessity - chasing Mess in a Dress, the eventual winner; performed well under the circumstances, giving her a race until the eighth pole and running a career-best Beyer; can likely be more patiently ridden here with more speed in the lineup.

Coast of Sangria

She's the "fresh" one in this bunch, having raced Mar. 7; that's hardly a layoff, but compared to some of these that are coming back so quickly, she's at least had time to catch her breath; has move-up potential joining RudyRod - who is skilled off the claim; somewhat surprisingly, however, her top career Beyer is merely a 72 for a horse with 7 victories; so she might need a new top to pick up a repeat victory.

Amulay

Rattled off four straight victories before being claimed and taken here to NY, where she could be placed in starters; fits the conditions of the race well and although speedy, she's not a need-the-lead type; is drawn outside the other speed and rates on top afte ra runner-up finish at this class level. - Byron King

Race 3

Touching My Toes

Shortest-distance test ever today while the 1st-blinkered start for last did not produce the improved effort expected; projects to battle Brad's Ruby for the lead; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 63 Beyer speed figure in her next-out AQU-MSW victory; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 54 graduated in an AQU-MSW next out; today is the lightest-weight assignment ever hoping to carry her speed.

Brad's Ruby

Seems fastest among these based on the best-last-race Beyer speed figure and her 3-back field-best number; wants to be forwardly placed and the 1F cutback in distance adds to the appeal; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 57 in her next-out AQU-MSW victory; the 3-back runner-up graduated next out in a TAM-MSW event with a 75 speed figure.

Frosty Lover

Was screaming out for more yardage in last and gets it here; exits a career-best Beyer 2nd off the claim when taken from the unveiling where the debut winner repeated with a 53 Beyer taking an AQU-$12,500 claimer; needs the first 2 posts to duel each other into defeat to enhance her late kick.

My Won Love

Still has upside making start 2 of career; bettors gave her no shot in the debut start at 40-1 odds then was outrun throughout; the race under her belt and the added yardage here are both positive signs but must show a lot more to post the upset.

Shades of Indygo

Brad's Ruby easily handled her in last while cutting back in distance may help the cause as she lost ground in deep stretch of last; best Beyer in a 1-turn Mile which is what this race is like; the barn began the Main meet a winner; needs a pace meltdown to take it all but figures to be rallying.

Agate

Troubled debut produced an even finish where she passed a few; the added distance here is a major plus; the barn scores 25% second-start maiden winners since 2013; a ton of upside for start 2 and if she doesn't hit the gate here like in her debut could find herself right in the pace mix from the bell. - Art Gropper

Race 4

From the Point

He showed improved early speed at second asking and he's eligible to be ready for a sharper run while making his first start as a 3-year-old; he's out of a minor stakes placed dam who won 3 of 9 starts for 87k, and all three of her wins were earned sprinting; this gelding is a 1/2 to Eternal Grace (2-6, 71k, both wins sprinting).

Giulio Cesari

Since an encouraging career debut, his form has kind of headed in the wrong direction, but his best effort matches up well against these, and dropping back in with maiden claimers can prove to be a key; he's out of a stakes placed dam who won 4 of 12 starts for 80k, and all of her wins were earned over turf.

Chief Assignment

It would have been nice to have seen him attract a little more wagering support for his career debut, but he did flash some early speed and it's worth noting that he'll be sent out with Lasix for the first time today; not going to be surprised if he shows up with an improved performance.

Get Busted

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his first-time starters and dam was unraced; this colt is a full to Keep Bustin (5-14, 242k, four wins sprinting); a couple of his workouts hint at ability but this barn has won with 13 first-time starters the past five years and only one of them didn't have Lasix.

Pegasus T

He's tough to endorse when seeing what he's done in his two most recent starts, but maybe he can be given the benefit of the doubt when considering that those races were run over a sloppy surface; this is a very capable barn and like the drop in class for him.

The Iron Furnace

Friendly Island has been a poor influence as a win-early sire, but this gelding didn't run poorly in his career debut, and Rice saw fit to claim him for 16k; Velasquez has won with 7 of 26 (27%) mounts for this outfit in 2014. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Heir to Dare

No match for The Royal Boot two starts ago when fourth, but didn't run her usual race that day; ran back to her customary form with a fine effort last out for 25K; was claimed yet again - she's been a popular mare at the claims box despite a history of layoffs; consistently runs Beyers in the 70s; choice despite Barbara's statistical strength not being with first-after-claim (5% winners over the past 5 years, though 41% on the board).

The Royal Boot

Seemed ambitiously spotted last out, and though she was only fifth of six, she was a lot more competitive than most expected; she was sitting second with a furlong remaining at 18-1; that was a slow race for an optional claimer, but this one did run some fast races previously when with high % outfits Jacobson and Navarro.

Matching Skies

Has been erratic here this year, trading top performances with lesser ones; if that pattern continues she might be due to regress of her last race; although it seems she tired a bit late, more than anything she was simply outkicked by a pair of classy closers in My Donna Jean and Haldane; lone start over the outer track resulted in a distant loss but at a distance well beyond her best.

Off My Cloud

This stakes placed miss hasn't won since Feb 2013 but has been regularly competitively over the winter; doesn't seem as fast as these, however - not having posted a Beyer in the 70s since her stakes placing in May of 2013; though she stumbled at the start of her last race she recovered quickly and was right with the leaders leaving the gate.

Madre Ditutticapi

Didn't have a productive inner-track season, going unplaced in three starts and now returns fm a layoff going back to Feb. 8; did run well the last time she was on the outer track with a fine second in a starter 50K; finished well that day but typically fades in the stretch. - Byron King

Race 6

Love Co Bro

Protected in last and this seems to be a better distance; runner that got taken down two back cashed next out in a $16K N2L, then ran out of the money; must prove he can win on the dirt.

Pacemakestherace

Maybe connections had this race in mind all the time as he was protected in last; probably from a bit off the pace if at all.

Holyicious

Only one off effort and he was dueled into submission that day; there are a couple of 6-figure earners in the tree; nothing like a quick turn on an investment to pick up the spirits; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Executive Office

He's fired every time; note it took him nearly a month to record a published drill after the last race; there are some stamina concerns as he has lost ground late every time; place horse in last was well clear and the race came back live; place horse took maiden $35K foes, show horse took a maiden $16K claimer, 6th finisher took a maiden $25K claimer; catch him to cash.

Forged

Considering the winner freaked in last, the race was not all that bad; he has a right to have a decent career as kin to Comedero, who won a ton of stakes and banked nearly $700K; must pick it up.

Let's Discuss

Nice try two back but he will need to invent a trip; this rider was up for the lone win; runner was over 4 clear two back; has some things to iron out.

Brother Ralphie

Two excuses in last; the off surface and runner may not have been comfortable in the fog; this guy still could turn out to be a nice claim as kin to stakes winner and over $150K earner Heiko; he looms the stalker of the Rice runners. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Broadway Music Gal

Draws the fence for the move to the main track over which she didn't prove much of a threat in late fall; mare didn't do anything special over the inner, either, and she finished behind a couple of these when stretched out last time; maybe for a share.

Physical Delivery

She's in for the optional tag after failing to threaten some of these off the freshening at the level; wet track seemed to perk her up 2 back so maybe if the skies open up she'll move up, but she does have ground to make up on some of her foes today.

Typhoon Teri

Wired conditioned claimers when afforded the top to herself a few weeks back and now she'll step in with statebreds for this new, low percentage outfit; her prior score came locally at this flat mile trip and she did prove in that one that she's capable of settling and making a run; wasn't much of a threat at the level 2 starts back, but off that last confidence builder she must be considered a repeat threat.

She's Stones Sis

Speedy filly has had her issues late since stepping up to this level; maybe she's tighter second back from the break and the stretchout to this trip could afford her the top to herself; she did break her maiden going long last year around this time and maybe the situation is right for her to bounce back today, but neither of her local main track cracks was much; one to catch.

Great Gracie Dane

Seven year old has certainly gone the wrong way since taken by this outfit 16 months ago; maybe the return to one turn racing helps as she is a 2 time winner on the local main track, but she was handled rather easily by some of today's foes in each of her last 3 starts; prefer others.

Familyofroses

She's been a solid check earner since breaking her maiden at Belmont last fall and her most recent score did come at today's one turn trip; he wasn't beaten all that much behind one of these gals last time and maybe the return to this configuration helps move her up; contender.

Hundred Acre Wood

She's in for the optional tag after wiring a field at this level earlier in the month; mare will pick up a ton of weight here but she owns some of the better recent numbers in the heat and she did win at this one turn trip last year; she's the one to beat today. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Luna Brava

Woke up when visiting the claiming world for the first time and the escalation today is not that severe; her sire won a G2 and 324K overall; the dam won 11 of 39 and 115K; among the winning siblings is 184K earner Just Gabi.

Eleni's Daughter

No firepower shown first time out but she was facing much better company that day; her sire won 1 of 12 and 44K; the dam scored in 1 of 5 appearances earning 30K; winning sibs include 347K earner Night Maneuver; can upgrade with blinks.

Bonfire Heart

Newcomer was sired by Posse, a G2 winner who banked 662K (his progeny have won nearly 10 percent of their first races); the dam did not compete and this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Quick Explosion

Fair tries in both outings and extra distance today can actually work in her favor; her sire won a G1 and 1.03 million; the dam won 4 of 28 attempts and 123K; among the winning sibs is 246K earner Freudian Dilemma.

Peach Lake

Raced evenly in the last pair but on wide paths; she might work out a better trip this afternoon if a speed duel develops among the inside runners; another very generous price on the board is certain.

That's No Limit

Cuts back from route efforts where she could only achieve minor awards; gets significant weight from the field and may find herself closer to the lead than usual because of the pace nature of this field; not out of the question in this puzzling event.

Enviousity

Beginner hails from G1 sprinter City Zip who captured 818K and whose descendants have won 86 out of 553 debuts; the dam won 2 of 4 and 22K and this is her sole foal to make it to the races; successful trainer/jockey team at the helm.

See Me Sometime

Major improvement in her most recent performance with the blinker addition; can earn a major share today if able to clear the field without difficulty; will be inviting odds again especially if an off track is the case at post time. - Jim Kachulis