Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 28, 2014

Race 1

Fade to Black

Moves back to the fence following her third runner up finish in as many starts; she's got early foot and there isn't a whole bunch of that commodity in here so it looks as if she'll be able to work out a favorable trip; numbers she's earned tower over what those with experience have run so she's going to take plenty of money and she's failed at a short price before, but she's not going to be easy to beat.

Ballerena Bliss

Sire gets 11% first out winners from his offspring and the unraced dam dropped 3 winners including G2 SP, SW and 204K earner Shebelongstoyou whose 3 wins all came routing; not easy to win at this trip first time out and the barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck with newcomers, but the first part of the entry has been worked long of late and her most recent drill suggests she does have some early foot; top pilot gets aboard but he hasn't had a lot of success for this outfit.

Miss Red Cloud

Stretches back out after a rough start on the rise to this level in her first off the sharp barn's claim; filly's 2 better efforts did come going long and the outfit has had a lot of recent success on the stretchout, but this gal didn't run particularly fast in either and will need to show a lot more to threaten the big gal in this spot.

Mr Rico Is Valid

Sire gets about 10% debut winners and the unraced dam dropped 6 foals who were all multiple winners including SW sprinter and 214K earner Roman Candles as well as one who won twice going long; works aren't much but the barn gets them ready and this pilot is profitable on their runners.

William'sluckygray

Barn's other half had some trouble early but didn't do much running when stretched out to 2 turns second time out; she will get the services of a top bug for this and she is kin to a route winner so maybe she has more to offer second time going long; last week's drill was improved.

Las Olas Azur

Returns from 5 months on the shelf after showing little in her Belmont sprint debut; she did breeze well earlier in the week for this, but the barn boasts weak numbers with its returnees; SW dam won twice going long and this filly's immediate male pedigree influences liked routing so maybe the added ground agrees with her; consider.

Palestrina

Gets Lasix for the first time after backing up from a wide spot to finish well behind today's rail runner in her second start over the inner track; initial spin here this winter wasn't bad but she also wasn't much of a threat to the big one in here; barn's recent numbers wit h today's applicable angles suggest she may be capable of getting in the exotics mix here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 2

Coffee and Donuts

Blinkers on is a winning angle for his barn; this is his level rallying well in the debut for today's price tag; main concern is he dipped 12 Beyer speed figure points 2nd-time out which is usually an improvement angle; the debut winner repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 74 Beyer.

Horatio

Longest-distance test ever at 7F trying to make amends off 4 consecutive times a beaten favorite; always around the money but the class drop to lowest ever for last did not produce the elusive graduation but was claimed chasing the winner who repeated in an AQU-25K claimer with a 70 Beyer; new barn yields just 8% winners 1st off the buy; exits a best-last-race speed figure so fits well here and both-AQU Main races were exacta finishes.

Eastcoast Lights

Two 2014 races both ended up as did-not-finish running lines leaving him as an outsider for this; needed last start off the 54-day layoff while the workout for this was not very enticing; dueled for the lead 2nd-time out so may show some gate speed?; a tough call.

Shot to Win

Horatio has defeated him the last 2 times they faced off but the added distance today may help this one turn the tables; the 3-back show runner Beyered 59 in a next-out AQU-MSW graduation; wish he fared better in any of his three-other 7F defeats to commence career.

Pillar of Strength

The trainer has been good with the blinkers-on angle; back in 3 weeks after the 2nd-time out improvement of 12 Beyer points picking up his 1st exacta ever; the debut show finisher Beyered 55 taking an AQU-16K-maiden claimer next out; see some upside.

Frontier Scout

A couple of these are using the MSW-to-maiden claiming biggest-class-drop in racing angle; another who regressed 2nd-time out on the Beyer scale and usually runners move forward following their debut start; gets a weight break with a capable apprentice up for the 1st time but must show more.

Gino and the Jets

25%-winning fresh trainer has been trying to get this guy right coming off another 10-week absence; takes the biggest class drop in racing angle (MSW-to-maiden claiming); willing to toss the wet-track route from last; the 2-back even finish over today's oval looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 67 in his next-out MSW graduation. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Happy Recap

So which gal to we get, the one who romped Feb. 22 and March 15, or the one who fizzled March 2?: well, at least recently the good efforts outnumber the one dull run, so there's cause for optimism; dull run did come at this level but she bounced back so nicely March 15 that maybe that dull day was the exception and note the rule; has speed but isn't speed crazy, and note they claimed her for $16K Feb. 22, risked her for $35K last time and now more than double her in value, a great sign.

Fashionation

Coupled with Front Cover Dream and with Worrie named on both only 1 will go; may have turned the corner; last few efforts have trended the north, topped off by a big maiden win on the inner March 22; that being said, the Beyer didn't come back all that hot (48) and today it's first time vs. winners and we're not on the inner any longer; speed to be in it from the start and it's encouraging Persaud wheels her back so quickly.

Underthemoonlight

Last 2 weren't too hot as she was 4th beaten 19 1/2 lengths and 7 beaten 19 1/2 lengths; the worst aspect is both came at THIS level; they also came after a couple months off and she returns to the big track here and her 2 November races on this track were most encouraging, including her maiden win; nice to see Brown feels good enough about her to keep her at this level and a bullet :36.20 move at BEL March 19 bodes well, too.

Front Cover Dream

Coupled with Fashionation and with Worrie named on both only 1 will go; was a hefty 99-1 when she rallied to beat maidens on the inner Dec. 12; that came after 3 ugly outings, 2 on this track; form since vs. winners hasn't been terrible but doesn't get the pulse racing either; note, too, it's all come vs. lesser and all on the inner so she's up in class and going to a surface on which she ran very poorly in the fall.

Possetivevibration

Looked good whipping $16K NY-breds on the inner a couple weeks ago; has speed but note that big win saw her stalking at first so she's by no means one-dimensional; very nice to see that off such a win Aquilino moves her WAY up in value; that's always most encouraging, though it also means facing tougher...though this spot didn't come up as tough as it could have.

Jen's Miracle

Got off to a very nice start winning his debut on the inner Jan. 19, then finishing a sharp 2nd (beaten a nose) Feb. 10; then tried this level March 3 and gave way badly to finish last of 8, beaten 21 lengths; in her defense, that was routing and she's back sprinting here, and there's no big panicky drop either; prior 2 starts show she's got some ability; Maragh to give it another go so it's likely too early to give up on her, though you have to be a bit worried that she hit the brakes so hard last time. - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Donttellyourmother

The drop and wraps worked to perfection after catching the off track to kick it off; winner of the debut remained unbeaten when making in 2 in a row in a $50K optional at Laurel with a 68 Beyer; probably has to come out running to flee the fence.

Solly's Mischief

Agile enough to overcome the bobble in the win; between foes two back and the miler could have helped his stamina; 1/13 show horse won next out in a $35K N2L claimer, was 2nd a length in a $20K optional here 8 days ago; more experienced pilot hired; he has a right to have a solid career as kin to over $220K earner Format V.

Pete's Fleet

The stamina issue must be addressed at this demanding distance; he was getting late in last and was tiring in the 5 and a half furlong victory; not sure the race sets up all that great for him.

American Creed

Colt didn't hack it in MSW land but like the way he extended in last; 1/27 show horse graduated next out, was a well beaten third in a $75K optional since; note runners in the company line were clear; probably needs to improve to repeat.

Awesome Heart

Life and death for the lone win but last race was the best since; the trip will be everything for him as he needs a hot pace and a lane to rally into in time; there are several in here with designs on the top; backers have to hope they go bonkers up front and the race falls apart.

Santa Elf

This is a better trip for him it appears; he could be more into the bit with the blinks today; 1/27 show horse won twice since, the last in an N1X with an 85 Beyer; must be left in the mix.

Native Hero

Ten clear two back and the winner that day repeated in the Freddy Caposella with a clever 99 Beyer; another slice could very well be in the cards.- Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Bobby V.

Bobby is making his third start in 12 days here in his second try off the claim by a trainer who's won at an 8% clip second-time off the halter switch over the past five years ($1.21 ROI); he benefited from an inside bias in his March 16 triumph; seven furlongs seems like a suitable distance for him, and Maragh is 3 for 16 on the year for this barn; for exotics.

Frazil

Classy veteran is shortening up off a subpar showing in a one-mile starter allowance on the inner track; he raced in the two-path over a rail-favoring track when second two back going nine furlongs; owns a solid record over Aqueduct's main track, and his trainer's numbers with turnbacks are good; can rebound.

Bos'n Alwyne

Struggled in his last few at the first allowance condition, and is stretching out to a distance over which he's questionable; gets a rider switch to Garcia, who has his work cut out for him today.

Hackleton

Rode a golden rail to a clear second behind the big favorite most recently, when he lengthened out from three-quarters to a mile and a sixteenth in an optional event; trainer has mediocre stats with cutbacks, but this one should be in the hunt with the drop to the level at which he ran fourth March 9.

Speightscity

Raced in the two-path until the far turn and on a golden rail the rest of the way when a hard-trying second to Bobby V. in a $25K conditioned contest March 16; Jacobson possesses a 19% strike-rate with turnbacks competing second-time off the claim over the past five years ($1.21 ROI); the bug Rice has won at a remarkable 30% clip for this productive barn.

Rush Now

The second Jacobson entrant is shortening up off the claim to a place where he might be fast enough to carve out the fractions; the third-place finisher from his last race returned to capture an optional event at Laurel with a 90 Beyer; classy three-time stakes winner raced over a live rail while leading throughout his penultimate outing in a tough tilt on the inner track; Irad Ortiz, the leading rider on the inner track this winter, has the call. - Ron Gierkink

Race 6

Bossy Boots

Beaten last out chalk goes from the outside slot to the fence after another lackluster performance on the inner; she's worked ok in the interim for the move to the main track, but she'll need to be more involved early from this draw in order to have a serious say in the outcome here.

Chrysolite

Failed to impact a better field when unveiled at Saratoga last summer and now she'll make her first start since then for an outfit that boasts some recent luck with its comebackers; she's been working regularly for this and she is kin to 4 sprint winners including statebred SW and 427K earner Freud's Notebook who took 7 sprints in her career; expecting she'll be set to fire with a top pilot aboard today.

Rice and Beans

Field's most experienced runner hasn't hit the board in any of her 8 starts and wasn't a factor in her return from the break over the inner; neither of her spins on this footing suggests she'll be much better moving to the main track, either; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Take the Zeppole

Returned from the long break with a big try over the inner strip a few weeks back and the fact she was in for sale suggests even her connections were a little surprised she had such a big one to offer; 4 year old is back in with MSWs today and her early foot should make her a player from the outset; concern is that the return try took too much out of her and a regression may be on tap, but she did return to work reasonably well for this.

Elmra

Blew a clear midstretch lead but held second by a good margin in a bulky field first time out on the inner track; she broke quickly in that one and after returning to work sharply she can establish solid early position if she does so again in this spot; with any type of improvement she figures tough to down today.

Funky Munky Fever

Sire gets just 5% winners from his first out runners but the dam won 6 times (5 sprints) prior to dropping 2 winners, one of whom won 6 sprints; barn's second entrant in here isn't working particularly well for her unveiling and they've been on a poor run with newcomers.

Riveressed

Adds shades for her second back from the break after coming up short late last time; filly's prior tries over the inner were all very good and maybe the new equipment helps keep her focused; she's had her issues sealing the deal late in the lane but should again have every shot to go on; contender.

Suave and Smooth

Filly didn't have a lot to offer while sitting down inside in her unveiling a couple of weeks back; barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck with second out runners; dam's other foal to race was a 3 time sprint winner and maybe the move to an outside slot helps this one settle a bit, but she still has a lot of work to do. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Idle American

Must prove he can win on dirt; hustling bug takes the reins but it's been awhile since this runner has seen a cameraman; note even after the head beat in his last grass race, fans didn't exactly go to the well at 11-1 and they were right on the money; would be careful here.

King of Broadway

The King always flashed some semblance of talent but the light has no gone on; he did everything but get unsaddled in last; he had to run every step of the way in last but he can relax, track and cash if need be; nice move last Saturday; major player.

Winter Games

He was losing a little ground late in the other try on this surface; he basically flattered the Mott runner with the win in last; his style demands that he gets a legit pace and then he had to find room at the right time; must hustle.

Tug of War

Wraps for 2 of the last 3, now blinks are put to the test; tough beat two back but New York bred could need softer to shine; he was crushed in this league back-to-back last summer; passing.

Matterhorn

This is his venue and at least he got a needed race in Florida and he was bothered to boot; place horse in the debut graduated next out, was 2nd beaten a nose in the Grade 3 Sam Davis; runner should give a good account of himself here.

Pontus

Beaten nearly 10 the last time at this level; Feb. 1 winner repeated in a $50K optional with a 90 Beyer; show horse 2/1 beat N1X foes in next with an 81 Beyer; runner still has a shot to mature with grace as top sibling Aruna won a Grade 1 at 5 and earned nearly a million; don't ignore.

Mighty Ian

Solid drills for this and the way he extended in the September win suggests this trip is doable; 1/25 place horse won next out in a $25K starter, then was 2nd beaten 3 quarters in a $16K starter; look for rider to send and try to steal it. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Di Lissa

Well-versed at breaking from the rail, this filly can finally graduate today; she lands into a field that appears soft for the price tag involved and should be a major force if breaking alertly; respect the connections..

Arc de Nua

Moderate breeze pattern for this daughter of Cowtown Cat who won a G2 stakes and 562K overall (his offspring have scored in 3 of 43 debuts); the dam was zero for 3 lifetime; among the winning sibs is 490K earner Machikane.

Ranger's Girl

Nothing to highlight thus far but today marks her first attempt at the claiming level; gets in very light but still will have to improve significantly in order to be a presence; cannot endorse until more firepower is shown.

Send the Limo

Newcomer hails from G2 victor Tiz Wonderful who captured 254K and whose descendants have won 27 out of 115 initial starts; the dam won 4 of 17 and 32K; among the winning siblings is 219K earner Whiskey Romeo.

M B and Tee

Fair breeze pattern for this begnner; her sire won 4 of 6 and 148K (progeny of Flatter have won approximately 10 percent of their first attempts); the dam was solid, a winner of 16 of 81 and 407K; sib to 297K bankroller Parker Ron.

Miss Glory

Decent showing in her Big A debut recently; she may have to overcome a softer early pace today and that could be the main roadblock; can earn a minor spoils again if able to obtain a clean trip throughout.

See the Music

Fair try in her maiden voyage last month; her sire won a G2 and 1.43 million in total while the dam never competed; this is her only foal to make it to the races; looks like a logical money player but will not be as appealing a price this afternoon.

Night Time Slipper

Has a modicum of early speed but little staying power up to now; makes only her second attempt at this level but cannot be endorsed for the top spot at this time; most recent training track breeze was modest.

Paid Expectations

Firster hails from Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus who amassed 1.99 million (his offspring have scored in 64 out of 595 initial starts); the dam lost her sole race; winning siblings include 123K earner Artistic Lion. - Jim Kachulis