Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 27, 2014

Race 1

Imanindianoutlaw

Projects as the one to catch; returns to the surface of her November victory; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-starter allowance with an 80 Beyer speed figure while she finished behind Mama Zee; is on the wrong end of the scale today giving Mama 2 extra pounds for the rematch while the added half furlong also favors others.

Precious Franca

Massive-class leap off the non-winners of 2 score; lone race on AQU Main was an eased-running line on a wet-main track; late runner should be aided by the added half furlong for this but the win number was light and would have to up her game to a brand-new level to upset these.

Mama Zee

Exits a co-best-last-race Beyer speed figure and gets the benefit of a positive 2-pound swing in the weights from last; the extra yardage also helps the cause and gets a good target again in the speedy Imanindianoutlaw; November winner in her only race over the track; the pick.

Daisysgonnamakeit

Another who could not defeat non-winners of 2 claimers but latest is a co-best-last-race speed figure; was purchaseed then freshened both high-percentage-win angles for her trainer; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-25K claimer with an 82 Beyer; beat winners over the track in 2012 but is 3-0-0-0 on AQU Main since; figures to sit just off Imanindianoutlaw from the gate then hopes to get 1st run on the closers.

Seven Dreams

Super 1st-off-the-claim barn sends her back to AQU Main where in November in 2 starts over the track she did not her fire nearly her best form; BEL-October winner at today's distance and closing style fits well at 6.5F; love when riders retain the mount even though the runner changes barns.

Myperfectvalentine

1-race hero faces multiple winners for this; dull 1st start off the claim producing her lowest Beyer since October; the 9th and 10th-place finishers from last Beyered 45-32 in next-out AQU-16K and PEN-5K-claiming wins; the 2-back winner and show finisher Beyered 78-53 in next-out PRX-16K and AQU-$12,500-claiming wins. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Palestrina

Turns back to a flat mile after holding second money over 3 other foes when adding Lasix in her return to a try strip late last month; filly may prove handy enough to secure a spot close to the leaders early and her late pace numbers do fit here; consider.

Risk Control

Didn't have much to offer after encountering trouble at the start of her inner track debut and now she'll tackle one turn; a top pilot does stick with her and the solid second out barn worked her long for this; dam as winless from 6 spins and her lone winning foal was 0 for 3 going long so don't know that this gal improves so quickly; prefer others on the win end.

Renards Lapin

Fresh face ships up from Florida after setting a quick clip and getting second money on the turn back and surface switch at Gulfstream 4 weeks ago; 4 year old may be able to control things from the bell on the slight stretchout and she has a right to be tighter second back from the break; looks like they'll have the field's highest last out Beyer earner to catch and beat at a short price.

Colonel Juanita

First part of the coupling enters this off a beaten chalk effort from a wide spot in her return to this venue; filly just missed against claimers the last time she tried a one turn trip and maybe with the regression behind her she'll have more to offer today; can get in the mix in this spot.

Long Blooming Rose

Has the foundation of a couple of sprint tries for the stretchout to a trip her pedigree suggests she'll like; dam dropped winners from each of her 4 other foals to race including 2 who won going long; barn's recent numbers with runners tackling added ground have us thinking she'll show up with a lot more in this spot.

Ballerena Bliss

Barn's other half was little match for today's rail drawn runner while splitting the field in her debut on the inner track 4 weeks ago; she did show some early interest in that one and she is kin to G2 SP, SW and 204K earner Shebelongstoyou who won 3 times routing; has a right to get better.

Mary's Mystique

Didn't threaten the runaway winner in her local debut run but she did best the rest despite encountering some early trouble; filly ran well at one turn prior to that so today's configuration doesn't figure to pose her much trouble and this 4 year old did work well at her base for this. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Dan's Gold

3rd last time, yes, but it's not like he was a real factor (was beaten 10 lengths); Jacobson saw fit to claim him, however (25% off a claim), has freshened him up some and while he drops him under his claimed price it's not by much, so it does not look like a fire sale; only 2 starts over the big track here weren't too hot, however.

Shankopotamus

Coupled with Take Down Too; 6 top-2 finishes in his last 8 starts, the veteran is still hummin' along nicely; after a dull 5th vs. tougher on the inner Jan. 19 he bounced back with a good 2nd for $35K there Feb. 21 (well ahead of entrymate Take Down Two in 3rd); drops in price but he's still in for twice they paid for him when they claimed him over 3 months ago.

Cherokee Artist

He may be a 9yo now but this shipper still looks pretty darn scary; been a pro for a long time - you don't win 12 times by accident; and while he may not be what he once was he still showed at the end of last and in his lone start this year he's still got oomph (93 Beyer last time); must deal with new surroundings but he's run well at numerous other tracks so odds are he'll handle this place; like the rail horse he was claimed by Jacobson (25%) and drops but it doesn't look like a giveaway; besides, it's risky business for others to dive in for $25K to claim a 9yo who hasn't run in nearly 3 months.

Take Down Two

Coupled with Shankopotamus; game 25-1 win in the mud on the inner Jan. 12, then 3rd in slop for $35K on the inner Feb. 21 (entrymate Shankopotamus was 2nd, 4 1/2 lengths ahead of him that day, however); won't care if it's wet or dry as he's won multiple times on each and those last 2 show that while he's a 9yo there's still plenty of gas in the tank; even so, for all his success (17 wins, 19 2nds) none of that has come over THIS track (7-0-0-3).

Precious Metal

Looked good wiring $20K NY-breds on the inner Jan. 25 but then was overmatched there Feb. 21 and then came a very dull run when back in vs. $20 NY-breds on the inner March 10 (ran 7th); Barbara did see fit to claim him, there's no layoff the horse does go up in value; could certainly bounce back from that dull run but even if he gets back to his best is that enough to handle some salty OPEN foes that he faces here, hmmmm?

Tummel

Ample speed here to be in the hunt from the start; comes here sharp, too, having wired starter allowance foes on the inner just a week ago; quick turnaround like this has worked well for Contessa (15%) and while this guy is back in for a tag it's still more than what they paid for him when they claimed him Jan. 5 ($20K). - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Clearly Perfection

Near identical journey as King Gettigan when the met on St. Patrick's Day; this runner should appreciate the extra furlong today more than most of his rivals and should be a major late factor with a clean trip; recommended.

My Mojo

Takes the needed drop after showing little up to now; his sire, a pure sprinter, won a G3 stakes and 261K while the dam never competed; among the winning siblings is 258K earner Silvercup Baby; did improve in latest training track breeze.

Dexter Cheesestake

Firster should be a true contender by default; his sire won multiple G3s and 454K (offspring of Frost Giant have won 5 of 39 debuts); the dam scored in 1 of 4 appearances earning 19K; among the winning sibs is 189K earner Copper Forest.

Keyaly

Incredibly, despite 52 consecutive losses, this six-year-old gelding will be one of the favorites today; closed with a rush to just miss last time behind the favored, wire-to-wire winner; the trouble today is that there is no clear-cut pacesetter and he might come up short again.

Campion Lane

No factor against better stock earlier this month; the previous placing puts him on par with this group and an off track would likely work in his favor; the apprentice must get this gelding into the race sooner than usual.

Aly's Favorite Boy

A remote fourth in his latest try when stretched out; his sire won a G3 stakes and 354K overall; the dam won 3 of 21 and 50K; among the winning siblings is 226K earner Aly's Colors; tries this soft level of competition for the first time.

King Gettigan

A tad better than Clearly Perfection recently and, like that foe, figures to do better at today's longer distance; has a history of unlucky starts and this clear outside post, like the one he had on 2/23, should work in his favor. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Lady Paradime

Her Gulfstream form was horrible, as she was beaten in double digits in each of her last two excursions, on two different surfaces; chestnut is light on Beyers for this caliber of competition, and may be no more than a minor player in this one-turn mile on the main.

U. S. S. O'Brien

Made all the running over a muddy strip when she crushed maidens with the best last-out Beyer in this field Jan. 18, from which the runner-up exited to land a maiden special with a 67 Beyer; two of her better races came over a mile around one turn, which included a narrow loss here in December; daughter of Empire Maker is bred to be a late bloomer, and merits top billing with Jose Ortiz taking over.

Flaring

Sprinter figures to flash some early foot with Franco replacing Castro, who's landed on Aqua Regia; sire was a stakes-winning sprinter/miler, and the dam was a turf expert whose only other starter won going short; others have more appeal.

Appearance

Versatile filly brings good $40K starter allowance form to this N1X/optional event, and should be forwardly placed on the stretchout; apprentice Rice has excellent stats while riding for Jacobson, who won a race off the claim on Monday with a horse running back in just three days; logical for the bottom of exotics.

Aqua Regia

Only got a 57 Beyer when she was a front-running second to the heavy favorite in a race at this level on the inner track March 7; her tactical speed should come in handy after she breaks outside the other possible leaders here under Castro, who broke her maiden; can have a say in the outcome.

My Jimmy Chew Girl

Registered her second win against $40K starter allowance stock three weeks ago in perhaps her best performance to date; stretch runner by Thunder Gulch has some speed to chase in this acid test, and could be along to garner some of the scraps. - Ron Gierkink

Race 8

So Scott

Respect hot claim box item as he just cashed off the claim; winner 1/20 repeated in an N1X, then ran out of the money; place horse in last won next out in a $30K optional; 2nd beaten 5 in the mud in his best effort at this distance; respect barn and the move 10 days ago screams off the canvas.

Big Business

Gelding has been given the winter to rest and get ready to pounce; he loves this layout, is proven fresh and has a penchant for finding the wire; only out of the money once in the last 14 outs and he may have just been overmatched that day; this runner looks live.

Beautyinthepulpit

Runner did show some semblance of speed but that was back in the day and you have to fret about why he had to take 2013 off; even the good ones don't always come back the same way they went out; a bit more keen to drill last Wednesday; try to get a good look at him on the track before taking a swing.

Johannesburg Smile

Both Jacobsons are dangerous; this runner has been in some good barns and he has run well on the cut back in the past without winning; veteran has the 2 races to draw from and would expect him to be motoring home hard late.

Uncle T Seven

Senior citizen has said Uncle to his rivals in 10 of last 11 with the win coming at Finger Lakes in the small field; being started and stopped on is always a concern and he doesn't seem to be eager to do much work in the mornings; not sold on chances.

Bake Shop

Game in the win on this surface, he may have just found the Robb too tough last year; like fact he has speed but can come from anywhere and still perform; Franco got a chance to figure him out, barn spotted them just great last year and he has the race to draw from; valid threat.

Sailmate

There is a precedent for her to run big off the vacation; she cashed off a 9-month layoff in 2012 in a state-bred $25K optional with an 83 Beyer; the first and 5th finishers in last took $62.5K optionals next out with 97 and 99 Beyer respectively; the winner 3/2 last year won twice since, the last in an $88K stakes; he'd benefit from a contested pace and a clean journey. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Promise Me Forever

The connections thought enough of her to try a pair of stakes at FL earlier in career; her best finish was on a wet-main track and the 7-0-0-0 fast record is not very enticing; even finish without any impact the 1st time racing at this level; there is a lot of suspect speed signed on here so she hopes to save ground then rally strongly.

Eva Lil

30th attempt and the last time sent one mile was another dull effort; exits her lowest Beyer since November however owns a career-best speed figure on AQU Main; rallied 2 back like 1 Mile might be a good distance for her; the 3-back show runner Beyered 48 then 52 in 2 next-out wins.

Lady C Note

Only 1 race over the track was one of the worst performances of career but over a sloppy track; exits her best finish of 2014 when stretched out again but nosed by Keen On Green; cutting back to 1 Mile helps the cause; if she can move forward off latest would be a major player.

Shewreckstheplace

New barn off the fresh fade middle moving; she hasn't shown a lot in 2 other races over the AQU Main; has raced on the lead in some of her route races so likely to be forwardly placed here then hopes to hang on late; the 3-back show runner Beyered 73 in a next-out GP-25K-maiden-claiming win.

Very Precious

Right closing style to do damage here in a race loaded with gate speed but must sustain her rally to score; posted a career-best Beyer when stretched out to 1 Mile; 2nd-Time Long is a possible-strong improvement angle; was never really in contention in latest then was outfinished to lose the show photo; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 47 in a next-out AQU-25K-maiden-claiming win.

East Coast Express

Latest was blinkers back on and front wraps for the 1st time while today it's 1st time for a new trainer while stretching back out off most-recent fade; is another with stamina questions to answer at 1 Mile; the show runner from last graduated next out in a 16K maiden-claimer with a 48 Beyer then repeated with a 53 beating $12,500 claimers;others appeal more.

Cake N Cookies

The race goes through the one to catch with a best-last-race Beyer speed figure defeating both the show and 4th-place finishers; they Beyered 51-45 in next-out MNR-MSW and PEN-5K-claiming wins; obviously stretching out to 1 Mile was the recipe for success in last; is the one to catch and beat.

Keen On Green

Another 2nd-Time Long runner; these kind are eligible to improve dramatically; she wokeup 1st bliinkers and in again with a feather assignment of 108 pounds; likely helps the closers likely chasing Cake N Cookies to the front then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Notably Awesome

37-1 debut at this level was a fade after stalking the speed; gets weight off 2nd-time out seeking a dramatic-form improvement; right back in 3 weeks with the benefit of a race under her belt although style of her debut suggests sprinting may be the answer? - Art Gropper