Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 22, 2014

Race 1

Fashionation

Unable to make the lead in her last assignment, she could not cope and was discouraged; returns to the 25 grand level where she nearly pulled off the upset 2 back; will have to improve her pace profile yet still must be respected with rail advantage.

Hot On Ice

Newcomer shows a fair set of training track breezes; her sire was a G2 sprinter who banked 388K (offspring of Hook and Ladder have won 32 out of 272 debuts); the dam won 5 of 13 and 102K; among the winning siblings is 194K earner Myakka.

Lo Gin and Tonic

Late foal hails from Skip to the Stone who won the G3 Bay Shore and 270K overall; his progeny are 5 for 52 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 11 of 40 and 92K; there are no winning sibs to mention.

See Me Sometime

Tries blinkers after showing only brief speed up to now; drops below the purchase price for the initial time but still may have difficulty being the main pace factor today; cannot endorse for the top spot on the ticket.

Gramma G G

Attempts six furlongs for the first time but has shown gate speed that is at least on par with some of the others; reverts to Velasquez who was aboard for her best performance in the run 2 back; not out of the question by any means.

Bay Dawn

No enthusiasm at all shown thus far; she has tried various distances with no effect and the blinker addition in the second start has not helped; doubt that a breakthrough race is at hand and she will be viewed as one of the outsiders again.

Nurse Stone

Beginner can be a major factor by default especially with an expert trainer in her corner; the filly's sire won her only start and 25K; descendants of Stonesider have scored in 5 out of 65 initial appearances; the dam won 2 of 11 and 76K; sib to 174K earner Gatto Nero.

Frosty Lover

Aimed too high in her first start under new management; her sire won the G1 Suburban and 454K; the mom won 2 of 57 and 58K; among the winning sibs is 152K earner Redfoxey Dorothy; wheels back quickly and can be a late presence. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Media Kid

Just missed while holding second money by a wide margin when taken by this barn last month; they've had some recent luck with this type right back and he's been given some time to get over 2 of his bigger figure efforts yet; contender can benefit from this inside slot.

Forest Jingles

Earned a career best number sprinting in his return from half a year on the shelf, but he was again sent to the sidelines and now they'll stretch him out; gray did win going long here last season and maybe the added trip does help him but there is a relatively recent gap in his worktab and that may suggest he's not set to fire his best today.

Denn Piper

Wasn't bad when splitting the field on the class rise in his return from the freshening last time and the fact he was 31-1 on the board against just 4 rivals suggests he didn't look to have much of a chance in that one; while he is on the improve of late, he goes for a low percentage outfit and they don't have any recent luck second back from the break; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

Lasso

Freaked on the front end and ran away from 2 time winners at today's trip; there's not much that looked to be done for him in that one to suggest he's just a new animal but he does run better when allowed to have things his own way on the lead and that could be the case again today; consider.

Force Multiplier

Aired at odds on when in with cheaper last time and now he'll seek his third straight score in as many local starts while making his first start off a sharp outfit's claim today; a top pilot will get aboard a gelding who has shown a solid stalking gear so expect he'll find himself in a good spot from the bell again today; giving him the nod to make it 3 in a row.

Mister Woolman

He's hit the money in each of his last 2 starts going long for a tag and now they'll return him in a protected spot; colt has yet to build on his big win first time off this barn's claim in the fall and hasn't been very fast of late; another minor award looks to be his ceiling.

Matt and Jesse

Gelding hasn't had a lot to say in any of his 4 starts since returning to the inner track this season and he doesn't have any early foot to speak of while he owns some back numbers that would put him in the exotics mix here, in his current form it's tough to get excited about his chances of jumping up to have say in the outcome. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Knox

Unraced dam is related to a couple of stakes winners, most notably 4-time stakes iwnner Not Aboard, earnings of 625K; her only other foal to race, Daddy Loves Gold, is 1 for 6 with earnings of 55K; sire's offspring are 11 for 141 in their debuts - no surprise a below avg. stat since most of his progeny want the turf.

Ferlin Husky

Has twice been second leading up to this while racing over the inner, but with modest Beyers in the mid 60s; was beaten by a promising next-out winner in Schivarelli last out, but this one had a perfect trip, setting an easy pace; will be used by most as an underneath exacta partner behind Tiger Tank.

Tiger Tank

Is 3-5 on the line and likely goes off even shorter after chasing Social Inclusion - he of next-out 111 Beyer fame in beating Honor Code; Tony Dutrow has great second-out stats and this one is a half to A Little Warm, winner of the 2010 Jim Dandy; short priced stickout.

Maximus Mike

Dam is related to 3 graded winners - My Pal Charlie, Bwana Bull, and Bwana Charlie, but she was an unsuccessful racehorse and her 2 other foals to race have struggled competing in other countries; the news is more favorable on the sire, whose progeny are 27 for 114 in their debuts; slow works; let's see a race.

Qui C'est Moi

Last couple starts resulted in runner-up finishes, albeit vs. maiden claimers; it's tough to step up into the straight maiden ranks off such races; should contribute to the pace before fading in the lane; maybe holds on for a 3rd or a 4th. - Byron King

Race 4

Giant Fox

Was screaming out for more yardage in the debut and gets it here; wish the trainer produced a sprint-to-route winner since 2013 (0-for-16); he has not raced past 6F yet; sire's only dirt route was a runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic; he is out of a 2-0-0-0 route dam who produced 204K-router stakes winner-Gangbuster.

Goodnewsisnonews

Horses last racing at GP then competing in New York have always seemed to have a big advantage over the locals but he has to get by Bay of Plenty who beat him easily in last; the winner from latest repeated in a Grade 2 stakes with a 94 Beyer speed figure; troubled-2-back exacta finish over the track adds to the appeal.

Retire Fifty Five

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire's only dirt route was a victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic; is out of a 2-for-6 route SW-dam (67K) who produced 88K-router Quillian (5-for-11); has a lot to prove off his outrun-throughout sprint line.

Old Upstart

Has not raced past 7F yet; G1 sire banked 940K in routes (5-for-15); is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; the 5th and 12th-place finishers from last both Beyered 59 in next-out GP-35K-maiden-claiming win and CRC-MSW graduations; the debut winner and runner-up Beyered 80-70 in next-out WO-G3 and MSW wins.

Kato

Was screaming out for more yardage in the debut and gets it here; the GP-to-New York angle is a strong one while his trainer produces 24% fresh winners since 2013; the workouts for this do not leap off the form at you but see some upside 2nd-time out.

Eirigh

The barn's produced 29% winners 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners since 2013; off the bench going turf to dirt following a mild rally and career-best green Beyer; much to prove on the main track; in his only dirt start 2 back was outrun throughout by the show runner who posted an 80 Beyer taking a CD-MSW event next out.

Howl

The 5th and 7th-place finishers from last Beyered 71-59 in next-out PEN-LRL-MSW wins; gets 1st Lasix and races off the layoff trying to avenge latest loss vs Away Game; the debut runner-up finisher graduated next out with an 82 Beyer taking a GP-MSW.

Profluent

33%-winning blinkers-on barn suggests this one is set to improve off the 2 narrow misses the latest in the mud; figures to be a major-pace presence after seeing him contest the lead in latest; reunites with the 2-back show rider where he was screaming out for more distance in his 1st race over the track and gets it here.

Away Game

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure 2nd time over the track; horse for the course produced in-the-money finishes in both starts here; late runner in October was defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 80 in a next-out SA-MSW score.

Bay of Plenty

Defeated Goodnewsisnonews in Florida when last seen while 2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; exits a near-miss finish after being off slowly from the gate testing the winner a next-out G2-SW (94); beat the debut show runner who Beyered 81 producing a GP-MSW win next-out. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Gombey Dancer

Blinks off, like they were for lone victory; had the bumping incident in last but he ran his eyeballs out in defeat in this league two back; 2/9 show horse earned a 98 Beyer winning in this league next out and then was 3rd beaten 2 in a $50K optional; back to Maragh, interesting.

In the Dark

Finally got there and the Beyers are going in the right direction; he flashed more energy in the drill on the 14th and colt has a nice stalk and pounce trip; 1/20 winner repeated in a $50K starter, then won in this league with a 95 Beyer beating rival Much Stronger; respect.

Crafty Dreamer

Wonder if the nose victory last time just knocked the starch out of him?; he didn't work in February but like fact he drilled this far on the 11th; last race came back live as 2nd and 4th finishers beat $30K optional foes next out and the show horse won in a $35K claimer; probably from off the pace if at all.

Much Stronger

Pushed issue when wide and note show horse was well clear; blowout last Sunday should have him on her toes and he has much more speed than he just showed; respect everything from this barn.

Mewannarose

The fact he won the debut gives him a shot to fire fresh; bothered in the inner strip debut, but apparently he is not much of a work horse; place horse in last won in this very league next out, 6th finisher was 2nd a neck in a $35K claimer and the winner repeated in a $50K optional; will be in the picture late if at all.

Ghost Hunter

Gelding went off form after the Marine; handled easily the other times in this league and runner has not shown the same kind of speed he did early in his career; try to get a good look at him on the track before taking a swing.

Cast a Doubt

Was in the good hands of Sadler out West; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta half the time and he may just have not wanted any part of the route in last; could see him sitting a super stalk and pounce trip; look out.

Bobby V.

Runner was beaten over 20 lengths in the cut back effort last September; state-bred was able to control the action up front in last but this will be a new ballgame on the cut back; more experienced pilot hired; needs very best. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Sensational Slam

Drops back to a more realistic spot after chasing much better in the last out stake; 6 year old rallied against the grain of a pretty solid bias 2 back over the track in a heat where the winner got away with relatively easy splits and his prior couple of tries at the stand were good enough to put him in the mix here; with some pace signed on and experience from the local fence he must be considered.

Green Gratto

Speedster gets off the fence for the rise to this level after his third straight score over the track; he's had inside speed biases help him along, but he's still earned some pretty solid numbers and clearly enters this heat in career best form; presence of other speed won't make things easy on him and maybe his recent situations make him a bet against in this better field, but he should be flaunting his lick from the bell from here.

Malachite

Took advantage of a small field with little early foot when taking his first with winners over the track off the 9 month break 3 starts back and again hit the shelf; his 2 subsequent starts were little short of poor and don't know that the addition of shades is going to do much to move him up today; have to side with others.

Go Appeal

Lightly raced 4 year old ran big when moved to this circuit and stretched out first time against winners but he's been away since and will return from nearly half a year on the bench in this spot; barn boasts excellent numbers with its returnees as well as those cutting back in distance and this guy does own both the numbers and running style to be a player in this heat, but off what he's shown in just a few starts it's interesting to see him in for the optional tag and that puts us on the fence with him.

Doubledown Again

He's hit the board in each of his 3 local sprint starts and now he'll step back up to this level; there looks to be a decent clip in front of him today and maybe that's enough to help get him involved for a share late, but he'll tackle a pretty good bunch today so he'll need to move forward.

I'm Stoked

Statebred ran away from entry level allowance runners while tackling open company for the initial time last month, earning a career best number in the process; speed is his game and there's some lick drawn down inside which could give him some trouble from the bell on the rise to this level, but he's returned to work sharply for this and looms a big threat to make it 3 straight in here.

Maleeh

Suffered his first career defeat when beaten chalk in the G3 Bay Shore on the main track last spring and hasn't been out since; colt will get Lasix for his return for a barn that does quite well with its runners off this type of break and though the worktab is limited, both of his wins have come off drills so he doesn't need to be raced into shape; they likely have more lucrative events down the line in mind for this guy, but there's enough speed to set him up here; one to hold off.

Mighty One

Makes his first start since the summer when tackling routers with some luck at Suffolk Downs; gelding's regular pilot will again be aboard as he turns back to sprint; he didn't have much luck while returning from a break on the main track here last year and this bunch likely proves to be too much for him today; longshot.

Ground Force

Gelding didn't threaten the runaway winner in his second start back from the break after riding a soft clip and front end bias to beat cheaper with a career best number 2 starts back; don't think he'll be involved in pace as he moves outside here and those are the situation in which he does best; minor award is his likely ceiling.

Majestic Raffy

Statebred turfer tries open company dirt sprinters in his first start in 5 months here; he's yet to hit the board in 2 dry dirt sprint tries so don't think he's going to return running over this footing; gets in a prep for the stretchout when turf season begins.

Carried Interest

Fresh colt returns to one turn after tiring from his pace efforts on the stretchout last time; he aired after setting moderate splits first over the inner 2 starts back but speed is his best game and now he'll start from an outside slot in a heat that features some solid early lick drawn down inside; 4 year old has some talent but he faces a tough task from here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Long River

Put up a lofty 107 Beyer when he notched his second straight $100K stakes while beating Percussion Jan. 18; he should have an advantage if the track continues to favor inside runners, and post 1 in routes at the meet has yielded 20% winners; forms an imposing entry with Romansh.

Mr Palmer

Stakes winner ended a drought when he captured a Feb. 2 optional claimer over Irsaal, who returned to score at the same N2X class with a 94 Beyer; son of Pulpit adores the inner track, but has lost Velasquez to Praetereo; Franco is 1 for 6 at the meet aboard Mott trainees; contender.

Praetereo

Finished on the fringes throughout his winter campaign, including in several stakes, but could only manage sixth in a recent allowance/optional event at Laurel; son of Giant's Causeway should be forwardly placed on the stretchout under Velasquez, who had several options in this event; on the edges.

Percussion

The speed of the party has been competitive going nine furlongs in stakes company this winter, without finding the mark; he failed to hold off a charging Long River when second after setting the pace while earning a career best 106 Beyer going a mile and a sixteenth two back; trainer/rider duo is 3 for 12 at this stand; logical for the bottom of exotics.

Dawly

Hard-knocking chestnut is seeking his third consecutive tally while jumping up off an authoritative win in a $16K starter; son of Awesome Again is an adequate fit here from a Beyer perspective, and has won four of five starts with Arroyo on his back; can see him cracking the top three at a square price.

Don Dulce

Friedman has a 14% strike-rate first-time off the claim going back five years ($1.60 ROI); gelding was beaten in a win photo in four of his last five excursions, and appears to have developed hanging tendancies; trainer/rider combo is 1 for 6 at the meet; outsider.

Romansh

Second half of the quality Godolphin Racing entry is a G3 stakes winner who's making his inner track debut; son of Bernardini trailed last time in a G1 fixture at Gulfstream, from which champion Will Take Charge exited to run second in the G1 SA Handicap, and from which the third horse exited to take an optional starter with a 94 Beyer; major player. - Ron Gierkink