Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 21, 2014

Race 1

Antone Suavey

Busy chestnut has been in a tailspin since earning his diploma last June on the Belmont sod; hard to recommend at this juncture.

Mr. Masterpiece

Failed to stay a mile and a sixteenth when he jumped up to this level a week ago; trainer has fared well with turnbacks, and is 1 for 10 with 1-7 day comebackers during the past five years ($0.89 ROI); the 74 Beyer he earned for crushing maidens while going short in his penultimate start would likely be good enough to get the job done here; contender.

Ginger's Joe

Hasn't shown much since returning from a fall/winter layoff Feb. 8, in a series of $12.5K non-winners of two tilts; 8yo is seemingly at his best as a turf sprinter, and simply doesn't have a prayer in this restricted allowance.

Perfect Disco

Rode a golden rail to victory when he graduated second-time out Jan. 25; his first attempt at this level wasn't anything to write home about, but the barn possesses excellent stats with blinkers on; some improvement might be forthcoming.

Borovo

Front-runner from Parx seems destined to gain rail control over a track which has been kind to inside/speed of late; trainer/rider combo is 1 for 3 at the meet--Ramon Preciado is often dangerous when he ships across the Hudson; arguably the one to fear most.

Money in Action

Another speedster from Parx, and he could hook up with Borovo on the lead in a fight to the finish; gets a speed rider in CC Lopez, and can be effective unless the fractions are too taxing; note that he's the lone three-time winner in the field. - Ron Gierkink

Race 3

Joan's Choice

A SW here about 13 months ago but things haven't gone well since; drops in class yet again but class drops the past few times have not brought about the desired turnaround in form; at least Ortiz takes the call (he was up for his last win) and there's no layoff this time but is even the drop to this level enough to snap him back to life at this stage of the game, hmmmmm?

Washington's Rules

Solid 3rd for $20K here March 6, though that won't make those who made him the 6-5 favorite feel any better; that was first start in 2 months and first start for Jacobson who claimed him for $12,500 here Jan. 12 when he won in the mud; very nice to see not only that there's not another layoff but that Jacobson feels good enough about him to move him up even further price-wise, now doubled in value compared to what he was claimed for.

Sacred Ground

So which guy do we get, the 1 who was a sharp 3rd at this level and trip here Feb. 8 or the guy who was no factor at any point when 8th for $35K here Feb. 22?; well, in his defense, he had a troubled start in that Feb. 22 race and that may have doomed him from the start; still, while he's a 9-time winner, just 1 of those has come here and after a good 2013 (4 for 12) things haven't gone so well in 2014 (3-0-0-1).

I Want You to Know

May be back on track; claimed for $35K by Contessa Nov. 20, freshened 2 months but came back with 2 so-so outings this winter here, first running 7th for $50K and then 5th at this level Feb. 8; however, he then perked up nicely to gamely win for $20K here March 6; that couyld be a sign all is well and now Castro stays and there's an encouraging move back UP in price.

Romancing the Gold

Good news is he comes out of a super heat (produced 4 next-out winners) and Rice saw fit to claim him for this price; bad news is he was no factor that day (ran 8th) so he may not deserve too many bonus points for exiting a key heat, and he hasn't been seen since; at least returns for the same price an dRice had him before (lost him via a claim last spring) so she knows what makes him tick; 3 for 6 here so you know he likes this place, though it's further disconcerting he hasn't been active to try and take advantage of his love of this track this meet.

Precious Metal

Ran on decently to be 4th in a sprint vs. tougher in the slop here Feb. 21; then got well-bet (1.75-1) routing for $20K here Mrch 10 but was no factor at any point; at least Barbara saw fit to claim him that day; 6yo moves up in price and while he was off the board in his only prior try at this trip he did win going a mile on this track less than 2 months ago. - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Sugeily

Blinker addition 2 races back did not help this filly at all who has shown no enthusiasm for the game up to now; today's move to the fence will likely make no difference and the latest training track breeze was dull; pass.

Raelyn Jane

Dead last in her maiden voyage but that was against much better company; her sire won multiple G2s and 1.13 million; the dam was without victory in 5 attempts; there are no winning siblings to mention; should fare better against these.

Taylornator

Gets the makeover package following a poor finish where she lost plenty of energy prior to the break; her sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam scored in 4 of 14 appearances and 154K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Estimated Queen

Gets in light and there is a major trainer change to consider; her latest breeze over the course was strong and she lands into one of the softer maiden fields of the meet; should be a pace player and warrants some backing.

Explosive Smile

Has flashed only trivial early speed up to now and seems up against it once again; wheels back quickly, which is a strategy often employed by this trainer, yet still cannot be given the main vote; a minor share at best.

Confederate Bay

Sudden wake-up earlier this month when negotiating a mile; returns to the sprint scene and with the lack of any intense pace opposition, should be an early factor again at the very least; more mundane odds today a certainty.

Canela Rose

An objective look at the racing on 3/3 results in the firm conclusion that the inside path was gold; this filly raced wide that day in attempting to rally and had no realistic chance; if she does not encounter a similar strong bias today, she is a very logical exacta candidate.

Countess Twice

A commendable try from a killer post last month when engaged in a 4-way scramble for the early advantage; may be able to clear the field in opening strides and seems capable of stealing the show if not challenged before midway point; negative weight shift may not matter. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

C C's Pride

Has been knocking on the door in recent sprints for a win but the last time racing at today's distance was a decisive loss vs. Mess in a Dress while getting a positive 5-pound weight swing for today's rematch; her last win and career-best Beyer speed figure occurred at shorter at PEN over lesser; late-running style does not fit well on a track favoring speed; good news is her new rider Ortiz pilots for the 1st time and is having a strong-Inner Dirt meet.

Darnley Bay

1st race off the claim was dull posting her lowest number since August, 2012; two-races back is a co-field-best Beyer speed figure when edging Mess in a Dress; which mare shows up for this?; icy 1-for-40 trainer this meet does not help the confidence level that she will bounce back strongly and win this.

Saxy Lady

Hard to make a case off the more than 22-length loss vs. similar rivals; today is her 2nd race off the 91-day layoff so is eligible to improve some; last 2 wins occurred on wet dirt and in an off-the-turf event; off latest is ranked a notch or 2 below the top contenders.

Mess in a Dress

24-race losing streak heading into this last winning during the summer of 2012 at SAR; was overmatched in last when not showing the same gate speed as she displayed 2-back which is a co-field-best Beyer when edged by Darnley Bay; is 1-for-12 in career with blinkers on and in last start was her 1st ever with front wraps on which is not a good sign.

Wildcat Thunder

9-0-0-0 record and all double-digit length losses since the May claim/win; the winner from last repeated with an 80 Beyer; her last win was posted on a wet-main track which she won't be getting today; would be a complete surprise.

Get Gorgeous

Front-running style fits well on this race track; she exits a best-last-race Beyer and you have to go back to December to see a bad race on her paper; clearly catches this group not in their best form as she hopes to avenge the 3-back loss vs. Darnley Bay; the 4-back winner repeated in an AQU-16K claimer with a 65 speed figure; try to catch the pick.

Rock Show

A 7-0-0-0 record since claimed off a BEL win; her late-running style does fit well over this speed-favoring strip; she was used early 2 back when defeated by similar and seems much more at home sitting back then making one run. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Unafraid

Offered little first out against open company and now she'll move to the fence with statebreds; filly is the first foal to race out of a dam who was winless from 9 spins and her interim drill doesn't suggest she's got a big move forward in her; just watching as she steps in with older today.

Showtime Jesse

Goes first time for a new barn in her local debut and she'll get shades for her first spin on dirt; barn hasn't had much luck with this type but this gal is kin to a couple of dirt sprint winners and she'll likely find her first with older foes a little easier than she faced in Florida; consider.

Share 'n Stone

Offered little while sitting down inside against MSWs a couple of months back while making her first start since earning a big number behind a couple of next out winners in her open company sprint debut at Belmont; barn does nice work with its fresh runners and they'll get her a weight concession with the capable bug named; giving her the nod to return running on the drop to her lowest level.

Charming Eyes

Filly started to figure things out as last year ended but her 2 spins over the inner this year haven't gone so well; yes, she did have trouble in each of them and the gal who won her last returned to beat winners earlier this week, but she'll need to step things up significantly to have a say in the outcome today.

Livininthefastlane

Tries statebreds in her return from the break while also switching to a bug; she's got early foot which should help her get involved from the bell for an outfit that is having an excellent meeting; she's had her stamina issues and will try older for the first time today, but they may have to come and get her to win.

Signora Sofia

Twenty time loser enters this in career best form and she'll go from one capable bug to another for this; she exits money finishes in her last 2 at this level and she showed over a track with some moisture in it last time that she is capable of sitting closer to the top early; she's had more than her share of tries, but if she runs back to her last she's a big threat.

Fancy 'n Flight

Makes her first start since New Year's Day when she again failed to offer much in the drive when stretched out; she'll return to sprinting here and maybe that does something to perk her up for a barn that boasts solid numbers off some of today's angles; still, she hasn't done much to suggest she'll prove a serious danger first time with older.

Gold Potion

Drops back in to face claimers after the new hood did little for her against MSWs off the freshening; filly was pretty good over the track early in the winter and earned a pretty good number on the main track in late fall; class relief makes her the one they'll have to beat.

Patriot's Jewel

She's been off the board in all 9 career starts and now this low percentage outfit will switch her to a journeyman pilot while picking up a bunch of weight in the process; off what she's done this far things don't look too promising for her; have to pass on this huge longshot. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Bird House

Half of her wins have been on the inner; mare brings back a lot of checks and she is proven here off the vacation; winner 11/28 took an N1X, then ran out of the money; note the last time she broke from the rail, she drew off with ease; should give a very good account of himself.

Dee Dee's Comet

Felt the wrath of the stewards two back; she caught legit splits in last and was making herself felt late; only one poor effort and she was caught wide that day; legit threat in a good betting race.

Pennymine

Could see her sitting another stalk and pounce kind of a trip; snappy blowout last Sunday says she is feeling pretty good about herself; another slice?

Your Time Is Up

Miss has been expertly managed; fried in a duel in the only loss on the inner and she proved in January she can thrive after a taxing effort; versatility could be her best asset as she can lead or track and still get it done; respect.

Irish Whisper

Loud and clear two back but caught wide in last as she tries to make amends for the chalk flop; 1/26 place horse cashed next out 8 days ago in an N1X with a 63 Beyer; like fact she has natural speed but can sit just off the pace and perform.

Pegasus Diamond

Right there are the top of the lane, she just could not carry on with the momentum; key off that race in the 2014 opener and she would be a handful here; back to that pilot today; another threat in a solid betting affair.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Got there with the hand ride two back but was fully extended in last and we really don't know how much it may have taken out of her; hustling rider seems to have a knack with her; apparently not much of a work horse; can't be dismissed. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Royal Posse

Late runner against a speed-favoring bias today trying to improve upon latest-troubled loss to Shipwrecked; the added half furlong for this likely helps this one trying to turn the tables; it is also 2nd time off the bench today which is another improvement angle; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 69 Beyer speed figure in a next-out AQU-MSW win.

Shipwrecked

Alex El Guapo and Sir Maurice also have strong gate speed and a duel could develop; looked like a new runner with blinkers on following the 10-week absence going gate-to-wire when DQd from the win tiring down the lane; the added half furlong here is a concern but has seemingly the best speed over a racetrack that favors it; is the one to beat.

John's Island

Exits a co-best-last-race Beyer; has not raced past 6F yet; sire's lone dirt-route start was an 8th-place in a 1 Mile-Grade 3 event; dam's side for stamina; he is out of a stakes-placed dam (4-for-29 in dirt routes 235K); looked like he wanted more yardage in last; his trainer is trying to snap an 0-for the last-16 sprint-to-route starters streak; the pick.

Sir Maurice

Snapped a 3-race in-the-money streak in last; clearly adding blinkers helped his form; raced on the lead in recent routes and figures to be part of a hot pace here; field-best Beyer was posted in a turf sprint; his trainer began the current meeting on an 0-for-15.

Alex El Guapo

Exits a co-best-last-race Beyer for a trainer who has been sharp this meet when shipping up from Philly; 1st-time NY breds today but steps up from a maiden-claiming loss; blinkers helped in last but has to beat Sir Maurice and Shipwrecked to the lead then hold off the closers; the debut winner repeated in an AQU-allowance with an 82 speed figure.

Horse With No Name

Improved 2nd-time out Beyer and a runner who deserves a chance to compete on dry footing; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 73 speed figure in his next-out AQU-MSW win; passed runners in the debut sprinting and 2nd-time Long is also an improvement angle; will likely be rallying into a hot pace here; contender.

Sugar Gold

Exits the 2nd lowest Beyer of his career with 8 lengths to make up on Horse With No Name from the 2-back wet-track loss; hasn't shown anything on any surface; new rider is his 6th different rider in as many career starts which is not a good-win angle.

Fleet First

Will need a vast improvement upon the debut when defeated by 2 of these; his trainer who is having a stellar Inner Dirt meet adds blinkers a 1-for-16 angle for the barn since 2013; has been working well for this and gets his 1st chance to compete on a fast-main track.

Winnitude

Weight break for the rematch with Shipwrecked; best Beyers on wet tracks but gets it fast today; has been badly beaten on every surface he's attempted so far; ranked as an outsider here; is widest drawn like last when fading 6 wide. - Art Gropper