Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 10, 2014

Race 1

Forged

Read the conditions for this atypical allowance race before investing; this gelding scored at odds-on last month and shook off a pair of challengers when doing so; the splits of that victory were on the soft side, however, and he may now have to resort to rating tactics; gets weight fro the entire field with the switch to the apprentice.

That's Epic

Maryland invader has shown solid gate speed in both appearances; the third-place finisher in his last effort, Cutty Shark, came back to win despite moving up to the special weight class, earning a 63 Beyer; the trainer has powerhouse win percentages in the relevant categories.

Coldwater Flat

Came home in slow time to graduate here recently but hold the phone; there was a strong rail bias on 3/2 which may have prevented this gelding from earning a far better number; will go to post as a non-favorite for the first time; consider.

Native Hero

Big gaps in the last attempt are noteworthy; lost to heavily favored Oliver Zip in that encounter and now can make a strong middle move if pace rivals That's Epic and Xixixi match strides from the opening bell; very logical exacta player regardless of the track condition at post time.

Xixixi

Today's race can be decided before the turn for home and it hinges on whether this runner can clear That's Epic; he ran a strong race in January behind Bourbon Therapy who was a last-to-first winner (and who thereafter scored in a 16 grand claimer earning a 70 Beyer); has faced repeat winners in 3 of his 6 ventures.

Pacemakestherace

Beat only 3 rivals when breaking maiden then was given 2 months off; breeze pattern during the vacation is modest and he may have a difficult time staying within range early; likely to be reserved much further back today and be cut loose for one late charge; a pace meltdown would certainly help. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Qui C'est Moi

Projects as the one to catch exiting a co-field-best Beyer speed figure at today's distance over the track when going with front wraps on for the 1st time; his only really bad loss was on a wet oval; can he hang on to win it all going 6F is the main concern but is the one to beat.

Einstein Affair

Cuts back in distance after setting the pace going long; projects to pressure Qui C'est Moi then hopes to get a 2nd-time out stamina improvement to grind out a win; the trainer is exactaless at the current meeting and despite the drop into a maiden claimer for the 1st time he has much to prove off the unveiling loss.

Bold Runner

Sire is 25-for-213 with 1st-time starters; is out of an unraced dam who produced 3 winners from 3 other foals to race all-100K-plus earners including stakes winner Proud Zoe (4-for-12, 241K) who did not win until race 4; mild worktab on display for a 10%-winning 1ster trainer.

Donttellyourmother

Some very-good wakeup angles like 2nd-time out and hoping to race on a fast track for the 1st time while his trainer is 3-for-6 since 2013 with the MSW-to-maiden-claiming biggest-class-drop in racing angle; one issue is the new rider is 0-for-14 since 2013 for the trainer.

Talon's Papa

Sire is 4-for-52 with 1st-time starters; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race including 49K-earner JK's Mischief (2-for-12) who did not win until start 7; the January 20 workout stands out as a good one for a trainer 0-for the last-20 with maiden-claiming starters and winless with 1sters since 2013.

Nicholson

Exits a co-field-best Beyer and cuts way back in distance for this figuring to rally into a Qui C'est Moi pace; the good news is a hot apprentice keeps the faith 2nd time off the bench; his 1st post-race workout was his best ever and despite the trainer 0-for-12 since 2013 going route-to-sprint he fits well here; contender.

Love's Dreams

Sire is 69-for-663 with 1st-time starters; is the 1st foal out of a multuple-SW dam (10-for-20, 885K) who won her 1st 5 starts 4 stakes; high-percentage trainer at the current meet has him working forwardly for this while the latest drill stands out; gets a weight break and the dam was a win-early type; the pick.

Perfect Stormy

Also entered Saturday in a seemingly much-tougher MSW event listed at 30-1 morning-line odds; hard to ignore the trainer's 0-for-43 record with maiden claimers since 2013; deserves a chance to improve smartly 2nd-time out and racing on a fast track for the 1st time while 1st time meeting maiden claimers; will be taking a wait and see approach. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Jcs American Dream

Her form has improved with the assistance of Velasquez and she has beaten a few of today's rivals in her two most recent races; she breaks from a favorable rail post and merits top contender status against these.

La Dama de Hierro

She earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure for her latest performance, but she was beaten by today's rival Jcs American Dream in that race, and she's going to need her best effort to date if she's to prove to be the one in this spot.

Gingee

If she repeats her latest performance, she'll likely get herself into the mix against these, but this is an 0-for-18 maiden who is tough to back for the top spot with any confidence; can't help but feel that a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Myfriendthebird

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and dam won once from 12 starts for 27k, and her one win was earned over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Incurable Optimist (4-6, 271k, including 4-for-4 over turf for 260k).

Shades of Indygo

If she can reproduce the effort she showed up with at second asking, she can have a say in the outcome, but that's the only start of hers from four that is in the neighborhood of what it will take to win this; note that she's been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in her last two starts.

Brad's Ruby

This has to be considered an ideal spot for her to make her first start beyond seven furlongs and she owns the early speed to control things on the front end through the opening stages; she's out of a stakes winning dam who won 2 of 5 starts for 106k, all wins sprinting, and Ortiz has won with 4 of 15 (27%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Willow U

Compared to what her rivals in here have shown to be capable of, two of her first four starts haven't been bad performances, and her two most recent workouts look okay; perhaps she can prove to be a little bit of a sneaky player in this spot. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Crystal Market

Didn't threaten the money finishers in her first crack over the inner while returning from better than 3 months on the shelf; gray steps up a notch for this one and she'll move to the fence, but she does have some early lick and maybe a hustling ride helps her sit a ground saving spot; still, a minor award would likely be her ceiling.

Guyana Star

Returns to the level of her 2 back score after taking a step back last time; filly returns again in just a couple of weeks and she isn't the most consistent sort, but a bounce back type of effort would put her in the thick of this and that warrants her a look.

C C's Pride

Just missed while splitting a couple of these on the turn back to sprint last time and now she'll get an extra half panel in which to make her run; she'll switch to a capable bug and should get at least an honest clip to run at, but note that it's been quite a long time since she's won sprinting.

First Penny

Barn's second runner in here gets a switch to a top pilot after being beaten by one of these for second money at the trip last time out; she showed good speed from inside draws prior to that one and maybe she's more prominent early with a better draw today; been a long time since she's seen the winner's circle, but if she shows up with her best she could find herself in the thick of this one.

Exclusive Sarah

Steps up for her first off the claim by this little known outfit while making her second start since the fall; expect she'll be tighter with her last behind her, but her interim breezes aren't much and she did finish well behind one of these gals in that initial inner track try; prefer others on the win end.

Rain Forest

Gray had little to offer late when finishing behind some of these last time, but she did enter that one off a couple of solid tries and it was her fourth start in just 5 weeks; expect she'll be set to move forward with the regression out of the way and she'll shed some weight with this solid bug getting back aboard; giving her the nod to get back on track and beat these home.

Go Olivia Go

Goes first off the claim by an outfit that's profitable with this type right back; 3 time inner track winner may have some bottom for the turn back after competing exclusively in route for quite a while now, but she hasn't had much luck sprinting; one to keep an eye on in the lane.

She's Gosphel

Outside drawn gray blew a clear midstretch lead when holding second money on the slight stretchout to this trip a couple of weeks back; quick breaker figures to again go to the top from here and maybe she doesn't have trouble clearing them, but her recent stamina issues make it tough to say she's primed for her first score in nearly a full year; still, they'll probably end up having to run her down to win. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Cuckoo House

Improved a bit on the turnback when he raced wide on 3/2, a day when inside speed fared very well on the card; will fly under the betting radar once again and is worth some exotic wagering consideration as result.

My New Hope

Goes without blinkers for the first time since his debut race and did display some improved prompting speed in the last run; he has shown no liking for this inner dirt surface up to now, however, and the equipment change may not matter; minor spoils at best.

Got the Moves

Poor record up to this point but there is an important trainer change to consider as well as the fact that the gelding races for the lowest price tag of his career; also note the major upgrade as far as the last half-mile breeze is concerned; not impossible in a field of this nature.

Lightning Ron

A long time between drinks for this son of Aragorn (a multiple G1 winner on the turf who banked 1.52 million); the dam went 1 for 9 earning 29K; among the winning siblings is 35K earner Yankee Mickey; may be preparing for the grass season which is not that far away.

Moonlite Encounter

Certainly has improved in the last pair and perhaps can earn a larger slice today if Rontos' Code is challenged early; seems worth some trifecta consideration regardless of the track condition at post time.

Keyaly

Aimed too high in his last venture which followed a personal best performance where he lost by a diminishing half-length; chronic maiden may have finally found the right field after all this time especially in the light of the latest training track drill.

Steve Came Thru

Came through for the show bettors last week but has done little else; has less blemishes on his record than most of his rivals and the race 2 ago, in comparison, is not that far off the likely favorites in this event; wheels right back and tries yet another apprentice; puzzling item.

Rontos' Code

The likely chalk today may respond to the blinker removal as it can help him relax during the early stages and enjoy the soft pace that seems a certainty; still have to question his stamina as he has quit on open leads more than once; puzzling possibility.

Brilliant Einstein

Trounced at nearly 100-1 recently and there is no reason to foresee any improvement today; does not break alertly and will be further compromised by the outside slot; cannot endorse under conditions. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Finn's Quest

Half-brother to multiple G1 winner Pomeroy (7-18, 845k) has been on top of his game lately and he's being reunited with Ortiz who was aboard for a win in a race where he earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure three starts back; note that he beat a couple of these in his most recent start.

Ghareeb

There is a long layoff in play, but he ran well in a couple of his starts as a 3-year-old, and it's interesting to see that this will be his first start with Lasix; he's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 6 of 18 starts for 399k; runner up from latest returned to win next out at Cnl on 6/12 going 5 1/2f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 60 Beyer.

Tug of War

If he's able to rediscover the form that he displayed early on in 2013, he can make his presence felt in here, but his last seven starts haven't been anywhere near strong enough to suggest that he can compete for the top prize against these; this looks like a tough step up in class for him after being claimed for 25k from his latest start.

Ruthless Alley

Have to respect the improvement in his form since being placed back over dirt three starts ago and he boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here; he was beaten by today's rival Finn's Quest two starts back, but that was his first start back from a layoff, and he was much sharper in his most recent start.

King of Broadway

He's been sharp in back-to-back starts since being returned from a layoff and like to see the way that he dialed it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale when chasing a runaway winner in his latest outing; that looks like a sharp four-furlong workout on March 2 in preparation for this.

Beeliner

He's on top of his game right now but this might prove to be a tough step up in class for him after getting the job done against 25k N2L claimers in his latest outing; going to look for him to be involved in the running early on, but others might have more to offer through the final furlong. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Schoolyard Dreams

Cozy slot as he drops off the claim; runner will need help up front but there are several in here with designs on the lead; like fact trained dipped into his own pocket to pick this runner up; should be a serious threat turning for the wire.

Couldashuddawooda

He only beat 3 foes in last but note show horse was clear for fun; place horse in last won next out 6 days later at Penn National in a $10K N4L seller; he can give you a :44 half under the right conditions; may like it here.

Jet Set Cat

Two of his 3 wins have been local; 7/31 show horse won next out in a $20K claimer, lost next several; races have been spaced and he has not been into racing since dropping the rider in 2013; not seeing it.

Nacho Earl

Gelding may be pitched a tad too high; the wins vs. winners have been against much softer and he has zero speed to speak of; absolutely crushed in the last 2 races; can't endorse.

Marquet Rebel

Eight and still trying; wonder if he has just lost the zest for the game; been a long time between drinks; last score came in Feb. of 2012 in a $10K seller; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Festive Spirit

Bothered two back, he did improve a bit in last but he has to prove he can win at this trip; he came from dead last in the prior victory and that was routing; hustling bug takes the reins; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Bear's Spirit

Gelding is figuring it out on the inner; he did get to lugging in last and has never been a win machine; check out the 10 slices; 2/9 show horse cashed next out in an N1X with a 98 Beyer; capable barn due to get rolling.

El Oh El

Colt caved in quickly in last and note Jan. 5 place horse cashed next out in a $16K N3L, then was out of the money in a $20K claimer; must respect everything from this barn and note the bug is 10 for 27 for this barn.

William Thomas

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 28 of 49; love fact he has natural speed but doesn't need the lead to win; very tough beat two back but he's proven on this strip, and if he can repeat the Beyer of 2 back, he'll be a handful. - Brian Mulligan