Aqueduct: Closer Looks for March 1, 2014

Race 1

Photon

Have to go back to April to see a bad-route race on his form; receives a positive 4-pound weight swing off the more than 2 -length loss vs. Frazil 6 weeks ago; he fires well off layoffs which helps for this and hopes to show a better late kick than he did in latest when flattening out in deep stretch.

Metaurus

Winless in 25 races but reunites with latest-victory-rider Nakatani who is 1-for-1 piloting this one scoring with him June, 2012, in a BEL-14K claimer at 6.5F on dirt; finished 4th and 5th in 2 races during career without blinkers as they remain off for this; tired in the drive vs. this same bunch 6 weeks ago while he races for a 3%-winning fresh trainer since 2013; will be taking a wait and see approach.

A. P. Cino

Winless since September at PEN; comes off Maryland off-the-board finishes for his return to Inner Dirt; Photon beat him 3-back but receives a positive 6-pound weight swing for the rematch; his 2-back loss looks a little better since the show finisher captured a 100K stakes next out with an 88 Beyer.

Divine Child

The main issue is whether he bounces today off latest-new Beyer-career best when freshened while receiving a positive-2-pound weight swing from Frazil's head victory in last; deep closer gets helped here by Writingonthewall and Willy Elliot battling for the lead; the 3-back show runner Beyered 81 in his next-out PRX-optional-claiming victory.

Dawly

Consietent sort with 7 straight exactas and 14 in-the-money finishes; latest represents a career best Beyer which made Writingonthewall's 2-back win look that much better; today receives a negative 7-pound weight swing off the 2-back loss but should be rallying well into a hot pace hoping Willy Elliot softens up his nemesis in the early stages.

Writingonthewall

Projects as the one to catch with Willy Elliot; exits a career-best Beyer 59 days winning his 4th in a row; the latest is a key-race victory defeating the runner-up and 4th-place finishers next-out AQU-OPC winners (97-88 Beyers); high-percentage fresh barn and jockey-trainer combo add to the appeal as the 113-pound assignment here is the lightest of his career.

Willy Elliot

Projects to own the best-gate speed but has Writingonthewall to fend off early then the closers late; 107 days since latest far-back fade vs. Dawly with a positive 9-pound weight swing for this as today's 113-pound assignment is the lightest of career; know him early but unsure about late.

Frazil

Races off 4 straight exactas but his only win in the span was by a slim-head margin; many of these race with their lightest-weight packages ever while he remains as a co-highweight; beat several of these in the mud 2 back clearly a wet track moves him up; field-best Beyer was accomplished at 6.5F on the AQU Main; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with a 91 Beyer.

Washington's Rules

Late runner has been absent 48 days since claimed off a win over much lesser; was taken from a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle; would need a massive Beyer boost off latest to make any impact here.

North Ocean

Projects to stalk Writingonthewall and Willy Elliot then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; scored right off the bench in last beating the show runner who Beyered 80 in his next-out win LRL alw. win; was edged by the 2-back winner who won his next 2 starts in 75K and 100K stakes races with 94-87 Beyers. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Gingee

Steps up to face MSWs following the near miss against claimers in her 17th career start; filly has yet to run as fast as some of these and she will be taking on the boys today, but she does draw an advantageous post from which to put her tactical foot to good use; tough to get excited about her chances on the win end, but this runner up in 3 of her last 4 may be able to get in the mix for a share.

No Nukes

She's another who has had her share of chances and she backed up willingly last time, but she was returning just a couple of weeks off a near miss in her return to the level; she's had a little extra time since that last one and though the low percentage barn doesn't do so well with its fresh runners, considering the steady interim worktab a bounce back type of effort could be on tap; contender.

Effinex

Drew the fence for his sprint debut and found himself in a tough spot from the bell; he's the first foal to race out of a SW router and 161K earner and his sire's sire of the pedigree certainly suggests the more ground the better for him; barn doesn't win too often, but expecting a much improved effort from him here.

Shipwrecked

Adds the hood for the stretchout in his return from the freshening with a couple of weak sprint efforts under his belt; barn hits at a nice clip with its fresh runners and this guy does have a right to be better second time over the inner; he'll get a switch to a top journeyman pilot, but both his dam and lone sib only won sprinting so don't know that the added ground will move him up significantly.

The Frood Dude

Sire gets 11% first out winners and the SP dam won 5 times (4 came on turf) while banking 139K; all 4 of his sibs to race are route winners including 178K earner Piano Star who won 9 times going long; barn's been on a poor run with its newcomers and the listed drills aren't much but a solid pilot takes the call.

Royal Posse

Didn't have a lot to offer in his initial 2 turn spin over the inner and has had a little extra time off since the try; colt worked long in the interim and maybe that helps him some second time going long; he's kin to 2 route winners including New York bred SP, 176K earner Ampart Ridge who was 4 for 5 in dirt routes.

Here He Fitz

Ran ok to get second money off the short break at a slightly longer trip last time and now he'll switch to a capable bug; gelding doesn't have much early foot and has had a lot of chances thus far; barn does ok second off the break, but there's not a whole bunch to suggest he'll take a big step forward here; maybe for a minor share.

Bryce Bryce Baby

Tracked and came up empty in his sprint debut last month and now he'll try a route; dam was 0 for 2 going long and her foals are a combined 0 for 5 routing so though the barn has had some recent luck on the stretchout, don't know that this guy will love the added real estate with the move outside today.

Kaepernick

Draws outside again after a weak sprint try in his return from the freshening; barn does a pretty nice job with runners tackling added ground and the dam was a SW turf router who dropped G1 SW sprinter and 7 time route winner Starship Truffles, a 445K earner.

Winnitude

Goes from the fence to the outside slot after showing little at 70-1 in his initial route try; maybe he'll react better to blinkers second time so equipped here and he is kin to a couple of multiple route winners, but off what he's shown thus far he figures to be another big price in this spot. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Sam Sparkle

0-for-6 on wet tracks so willing to excuse the distant-show finish from last noting his career-best Beyer speed figure was accomplished 1st off the claim on a fast oval; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-Grade 3 stakes with a 104 Beyer; beat the 3-back show runner a next-out 82 speed figure AQU-20K-claiming winner.

Ground Force

On the lead for all 6 win pictures but in front at the 1st call in just 9 of 34 career races; loved the lead in last shaking free loose to post a new Beyer speed figure Top; Mean Season projects to own the best-gate speed which compromises his win hopes dramatically; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 90-87 in next-out AQU-starter allowance and optional-claiming wins.

Mean Season

Perfect runner has never been headed and is the one to catch and beat; last looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 85 in a next-out AQU-allowance win; field-best Beyer speed figure was accomplished 1st time on AQU Inner Dirt at today's distance 69 days ago; that huge effort in last occurred off a similar freshening hoping to avoid a bounce here and keep the streak alive to remain unbeaten.

Don Tito

Late runner clearly gets a good stalkers' setup with Mean Season and Ground Force battling for the front; defeated the show finisher from last who Beyered 97 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-98K stakes then took a Grade 3 with 98-90 speed figures.

Hackleton

Great sign that his 1st race off the claim was a win and career-best Beyer speed figure snapping an 0-for-3 losing streak on wet tracks; there is plenty of gate speed signed on here to help the late kick; the 2-back DQd winner Beyered 80 in a next-out AQU-35K-claiming win.

Hannibal Lecter

Ranked as an outsider off latest double-digit length loss to Hackleton; 2 of his 3 wins occurred on wet tracks which why latest was so disappointing; offered brief speed in the 2-back loss but missed the break completely in last; would be a shocker.

Readthebyline

Today's 113-pound assignment represents the lightest of his career; trainer nails 26% winners 1st-time out with newly acquired runners but this one needs a hiuge-wakeup call off latest and from recent form; the 3-back winner repeated in a 100K stakes with a 94 Beyer. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Strapping Groom

G1 stakes winning sprinter was given some time after getting back on track and posting a career best Beyer in the smashing Gravesend score, second time over this inner strip; rail draw commits him to the lead and there is other speed in here, but he's certainly comfortable on the front end; spots them all weight and he'll have to work hard from the bell from here, but he's run well fresh in the past and he'll switch to a top local pilot; they'll have him to beat.

Candyman E

Seeks his fourth straight score and third in a row over the inner after running down a loose front runner who returns here as well; he's had a full 4 weeks to get over the career best Beyer effort and this outfit does excellent work with runners second back from the break; barn's second runner in here could trip out quite well behind his uncoupled mate and other speed types signed on for this; looks to be the main danger from close range.

Saturday's Charm

Fresh 5 year old has never been off the board in 4 career inner track spins and now he'll step back up to the stakes ranks in his return; he'll get pace in front of him and that's a plus, but he's settled for quite a few minor awards; the hotter the clip up top the better for him, but prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics in this spot as well.

Dads Caps

Speedy colt was run down on the square as the chalk by one of these in his return from the freshening; colt did earn a career best number in that last out G3 Toboggan defeat and he has been quite good over the inner; maybe he's tighter with his last behind him, but he'll face some other speed today and though he's won from an early tracking spot, that won't make things easy on him; consider.

Non Stop

Didn't have enough to threaten the top 2 last time and each of those foes returns in this spot as well; maybe the promise of a contested clip helps him some, but don't know that he's really good enough to contend for the top spot in this heat; prefer others on he win end.

Sensational Slam

Got up for second money behind a front running winner while breaking from the fence on the class drop a couple of weeks back; he'll return to the stakes ranks for this and catches 3 foes who dusted him at the level 2 starts back; maybe a contested clip up top helps his kick get him more involved in the lane here.

Jake N Elwood

Outside drawn 5 year old gets off the fence for his return from the freshening after beating one foe home in his inner track debut; maybe he goes better second time in shades and he's run well both fresh and from tracking spots in the past; he's been off his best game for a while, though, and will need to step things up to go with these. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Shinnecock Bay

A steady set of half-mile breezes over the training track is on view; his sire won 4 of 8 starts and 89K (progeny of Two Punch have scored in 105 out of 898 debuts); the dam went 4 for 20 earning 69K; winning sibs include 97K earner Chanceux Vous.

Mighty Zealous

Offspring of Here's Zealous, a G3 type who notched 456K, have won 12 percent of their first attempts; the dam involved won 2 of 16 and 60K; this is her only foal to start; excellent drill on the morning of 2/9 to note.

Latigo Trail

Flashed fair early speed on the stretchout in January but faded at the half-way point; his sire won 1 of 2 and 44K while the dam scored in 5 of 23 races earning 68K; winning siblings include 35K earner Mr. Lit.

Ke in Motion

California invader has a proven first gear and did set a fast pace in his last try at a longer distance; if he takes to this surface, he is an obvious pace factor; worth consideration if front-runners have dominated on the card.

Sanctify

Very tough beat last month when losing a head bob to the pacesetter; his sire won multiple G2s and 728K; the dam won 1 of 6 and 41K; this is her only foal to compete; obvious true contender from Hall of Fame trainer Mott.

Super Nicky

Compromised by a wide post and racing path in his maiden voyage, he gave a good account of himself nonetheless; his sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam was without a tally in 3 tries; sib to 103K earner Carla Sweetrevenge.

John's Island

Raced evenly behind some of these same foes first time out and may receive a stronger early pace today which can help; his sire own a G2 and 662K: the dam won 5 of 39 and 299K; among the winning sibs is 11K earner Funky Cat.

Whyalwaysme

Superior workout a week ago for this newcomer; his sire won the G1 Suburban and 456K (descendants of Frost Giant have scored in 5 of 37 initial starts); the dam lost her sole outing; sib to 128K earner I Bet Toni Knows.

Hampden Fiveone

Finished well despite a modest tempo to capture the place in the last run; continues to be unlucky at the post position draw, however, and simply does not warrant such a similar short price today as in the last try; money chances remain.

Frontier Scout

Stayed within range until the stretch in his only try while going to post at huge odds; see John's Island, above, for same sire information; the dam was a sturdy runner, winning 29 out of 75 and 380K; there are no winning sibs to mention.

Unforced

Best workout was on 2/19; see the rail runner in this field for information about the same sire; this colt's dam won 9 of 25 and 69K; there are no winning siblings to highlight; the trainer has scored with longshot beginners. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Iron Power

Faded in a key-race loss 43 days ago but will be trying to bounce back racing for a high-percentage fresh trainer; beaten-favorite tired off the board vs. the runner-up and show finishers; they posted 92-85 Beyer speed figures in next-out AQU-optional claiming and 35K-claiming wins; view as a pace presence for part.

Indy Tune

Way off best form heading into this with 8 straight defeats the last 4 being off-the-board finishes; ranked a notch below these off the 3-back loss vs. Iron Power which also saw the runner-up and show finishers Beyer 92-85 in next-out AQU-OPC and 35K-claiming wins.

Sound of Drums

All 5 wins at FL; back in one week; the short-return angle is a high-percentage win move for his trainer; Is 4-for-18 without blinkers which why removing them for today's event is a plus; the main knock is the 0-for-11 AQU-Inner Dirt record with only 1 exacta finish.

Papa Tom

Negative 3-pound weight swing off the 15-length loss to Pure Attitude; is rated far below the top contenders for this; the good news is both wins and his career-best Beyer occurred on AQU Inner Dirt; been nearly 1 year since his career-Top speed figure stalking the 1-Mile trip.

Pure Attitude

Mixed reviews since the November claim but 8-year-old has 2 wins for the current connections; his career-best Beyer occurred on a synthetic surface; late runner cuts back to 1 Mile but will need a pace metldown to score here; the 3-back victory looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 70 in his next-out AQU-allowance win.

Native Singer

10 weeks since posting back-to-back Beyer speed figure Tops; the latest posted at today's distance over a wet-Inner Dirt oval; the only other start of career following a similar layoff as today's was a career-low Beyer 3-back vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 92 in his next-out AQU-MSW score.

Fiona's Hero

Has not won past 6.5F yet; posted 4 straight exactas for the new barn but exits his lowest speed figure since the trainer change; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU alw with an 83 Beyer; another back on short rest but needed last start off the 53-day layoff.

Towering Moon

Late runner just missed in last at longer; cutting back to 1 Mile does not help the confidence level; major talent shown from the beginning; his career-debut win is a Beyer speed figure Top; the 2-back show runner Beyered 86 in his next-out AQU-OPC victory.

Seventy Six

The September layoff is a major concern although the only other start with 45 days or longer between races was an exacta finish vs. maidens; the 2-back show runner Beyered 96 in his next-out BEL-OPC win; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 79 in his next-out SAR alw. score.

Giant Finish

Makes just his 2nd start since June while coming off 2 of his worst-career races; rematch with Pure Attitude after finishing nowhere behind that one in last; 2-back winner repeated in a SAR-Grade 2 stakes with a 107 Beyer; the 3%-winning fresh trainer since 2013 suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Readytodefer

Last time racing this long was March, 2012, a more than 15-length loss; stretching back out to 1 Mile is a big concern; goes for a winning-fresh trainer after fading behind the runner-up finisher who Beyered 90 in his next-out AQU-OPC victory.

Five Freedoms

Bounce candidate after posting a career-best Beyer speed figure in his loss to Precious Metal 71 days ago; it was a good sign that he fired so well 1st time over today's Inner Dirt oval but races for a 3%-winning fresh trainer; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 79-77 in 2 next-out claiming wins.

Precious Metal

Stretches back out to the 2-back win distance when stalking the pace; not a great sign that his 1st race off the claim produced his lowest Beyer since November although could excuse it sprinting on a wet-main track which is not his best game.

Warrior Up

Exits his lowest Beyer since January, 2012, in a 6F-Inner Dirt loss; winless over one year beating optional claimers at 1M and 70 yards February, 2013, over the Inner Dirt with Castro who rode to his 2-back loss vs. Fiona's Hero; a tough call. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Flash Forward

Raced just off the golden rail last time when she beat every rival she could see during a second-place finish in a stakes won by the heavily-favored Teen Pauline; has since worked twice and might be more effective here in her second race off a short layoff; Velasquez replaces the injured Cohen on the daughter of Curlin; on the edges.

Teen Pauline

Captured the 143rd running of the Ladies with the aid of a powerful inside bias; has a realistic chance to cut loose on the lead again here while in search of her third consecutive stakes score, but isn't worth backing at a chalky price; prefer Summer Applause over her if the track is playing fair.

Centring

Beautifully-bred daughter of A.P. Indy has placed in six straight stakes, without finding the mark; she raced wide throughout when the rail was the place to be in the nine-furlong Ladies, in which she out-finished Royal Lahaina to secure third; obviously mandatory for the bottom of vertical wagers, and don't waste any money by putting her on top.

Summer Applause

Came on belatedly for fourth behind the brilliant champion Groupie Doll when she started last in the G1 BC Filly and Mare Sprint, from which unplaced Teddy's Promise exited to land a $100K stakes at Hollywood; was previously in solid route form, which featured a second in a G1 at Keeneland behind horse-for-course Emollient; was victorious in a G2 stakes in her lone inner track excursion, and merits top billing under Jose Ortiz, who's 4 for 13 at the meet aboard Chad Brown charges.

Flores Island

The rail was live when she came from a wide stalking position to win a slow optional claimer Jan. 10; the runner-up in that heat came back to romp in a $100K stakes at Laurel, and the eighth horse returned to take a $16K starter here; minor player.

Royal Lahaina

Went four-wide on the first turn and stayed off the golden rail the rest of the way when a distant fifth in the Ladies, a race you can draw a line through; she outran the win-shy Centring while capturing the G2 Go for Wand at 13-1 going a mile around one turn here in the fall; Nakatani was named on the Pletcher trainee, who has a shot to round out the tri if things go her way. - Ron Gierkink

Race 9

In Trouble

Youngster was professional in his racing debut when he got an ideal 3-hole trip and proved it was no fluke winning the Grade 2 Futurity getting his last furlong in :12.76; he has not missed a beat aiming for this test; his sire was a Grade 2 winner at this very distance, dam s lone win was a sprint and her other foal lost 4 times; trainer Dutrow is 1 for 11 the last 5 years with sprint to route runners in a Graded stakes and 5 others ran in the money at odds between 6-5 and 8-1; cozy slot as runner gets the acid test today.

Financial Mogul

Runner needed slop and 7 furlongs for the lone victory; he nearly outran his 13-1 odds in the Nashua to close out 2013 and the show horse that day took the Grade 2 Jerome next out; dull in the Holy Bull last time but he came out of that race with a lung issue, has visited the hyperbaric chamber at Fair Hill while being able to train uninterrupted; 3rd finisher in the Holy Bull but won the Risen Star last Saturday with a 97 Beyer; dam took 2 sprints and was third in her only route attempt but she dropped several successful routers including Grade 1 placed over $200,000 earner Bear in the Woods; Violette explains this colt's situation, Violette:"Our lung issue seems to be behind us, and he's really training spectacularly."

Uncle Sigh

Proven on this inner strip but just could not wire the field the Withers; runner has the pedigree to go on as kin to Percussion, who won the 9-furlong Albert The Great Stakes with a 95 Beyer on way to near $450,000 career; Contessa did not lose faith after the Withers, Contessa: "This was Rocky, I'm ready for Rocky II. He ran well, I think the difference was that I, having the one hole, had to set the pace. I think he's really going to mature off this effort"; Nakatani rides today and he is as good as it gets when he is on his game.

Noble Cornerstone

Runner is in the clever hands of Ward, who is very good with young horses; cranked up to start his career when he beat state-bred foes by over 5 lengths, he was hung wide at Remington but came flying when over 5 lengths clear; he broke a bit slowly last time with no other apparent excuse; Ward tries to get him to focus with the new blinkers and distance is within the realm as his sire won three times, all at 9 furlongs; dam was sprint only but she dropped a runner that won at this very distance twice in Puerto Rico; must rebound.

Monopolize

Ridgling did not pass 'Go' in his debut and did not collect $200 when caught 5 wide; he stretched out successfully and then ran an even 6th; entered in an entry level optional claimer on Feb. 21 but he scratched when it came up muddy; Pletcher adds the blinks, which may enable runner to be more aggressive; all 5 of dam's wins were routes and she earned nearly $300K; there are a couple of proven routers in his family including Imperial Council, who was 2nd in this very race in 2009 when beaten over 8 lengths by I Want Revenge; look for him late if at all.

Deceived

This double winner at a mile and has only run one poor race and in that effort this colt lunged at the break, was off poorly, and still managed to beat half the field home; blood is there for this Empire-bred to have a solid career as kin to millionaire Naughty New Yorker, who could run all day long and was awarded 3rd in the Gotham in 2005 after he was struck by a rival's whip; one can envision him getting a nice stalk and pounce trip, but he has to prove he can win in open company.

Classic Giacnroll

This $27K purchase got good for about 2 weeks when he parlayed a diploma and beat entry-level allowance foes; a closing third in the off going in his finale last year in a muddy $100,000 stakes and the winner in that stakes repeated in a $100,000 stakes; he is another that must prove he can route but his sire Giacomo proved his stamina winning the Kentucky Derby; dam was sprint only but 2 siblings won routing including over $200K earner City Stormer, who won 2 mile races, the last when extending by nearly 3 lengths in the lane; wraps were removed last time and the runner regressed; needs a turn around.

Samraat

Soph can only try to improve on perfection; he passed a big test in last winning in open company and he showed a new wrinkle coming from just off the pace; Violette made a solid decision to take him to Florida train and it worked ideally; like the 2 recent drills and the last was a nice mile maintenance work; trainer thought about skipping this race but the runner changed his mind, Violette: "He's doing very good. We felt getting 2 (more) races before the Derby was the best way to get there as long as he cooperated and was ready to run"; can't fault those that bank on 5 in a row.

Extrasexyhippzster

Sharp colt has progressed nicely since being mugged in his debut; he had a valid excuse of the mud in this stakes debut when hooking Joint Custody, who returned to win his next out in a $100K stakes; colt got revenge against Custody beating him in late January; Trombetta has hit with 98 of 555 or 18% the last 5 years of his last out winners and 50% have been in the money; sire won several Graded grass stakes at 9 furlongs but his dam was sprint only and this is her first to go; still, too sharp to ignore.

Master Lightning

No luck in his stakes appearances; in his debut on this inner strip, he tracked a pedestrian :51, 1:16 2/5 pace and finally inched away late; there is class on the bottom side as his dam won several stakes and earned nearly $325; handled easily by rival on the direct inside last time, runner needs to pick it up to upset this group.

Harpoon

Son of Tapit went fishing in the stakes last time and lost by a nose to his stablemate, who re-bid in a furious finish; timed in 1:47.34, it was the slowest Sam Davis since 2002; colt has fired every time, he has much more speed then he just flashed and he has handled any kind of going; runner hails from a classy family and half brother Cuvee was a Grade 1 winner at mile when he extended in the lane to win going away with a 101 Beyer on his way to an over $400K career; best of 58 bullet work in the holster and he could be making an impact in the late stages. - Brian Mulligan