Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 9, 2014

Race 1

Folk Singer

Need-the-lead type got dusted after failing to attain his preferred early position in a recent starter, a race that you can draw a line through; will likely carve out the fractions here in a field lacking speed, and a repeat of his runner-up placing at this price under Studart Dec. 20 may be in the cards; trainer hit with 14% of his 1-7 day starters during the last five years ($2.36 ROI).

Grand Rapport

Lacked room in his encouraging comeback, but is this classy 7yo poised to regress here while returning on short rest? the powerful Jacobson barn possesses solid stats pertaining to this situation, and is 12 for 53 at the meet when using Cohen; hard to ignore in just his second inner track excursion.

Kanturk Kid

Was beaten in double digits in each of his outings since being claimed for a hefty $75K at Saratoga; 4yo is plunging to a new low off a bit of a troubled run under Velasquez, who's 6 for 16 at the meet aboard Jacobson charges; not worth the risk, especially at a chalky price.

Hoppy Do

The capable bug Franco was aboard for his authoritative score in the mud two back here in a one-turn mile on the main track; his numbers on a dry fast track are mediocre at best, and he should only be considered if the track contains some moisture.

Matt and Jesse

His distant fourth two back behind runaway winner Fortify wasn't bad, but that rival subsequently disappointed in an N2X optional event; 5yo is dropping to an appropriate spot, and is the lone entrant with an inner track victory on his record; should be a factor at what figures to be a square price, if he fires one of his better shots.

Awake At T Wire

Was along for third behind Folk Singer in his debut for Nevin, who's 2 for 9 (22%) second-time off the claim ($2.33 ROI); a hot Jose Ortiz made the board on all seven of his mounts for this barn at the meet, which included one win; in the mix. - Ron Gierkink

Race 2

Sundae School

Perked up on the big track here Dec. 6 but was that a function of slop, or the class drop or of if being a 2nd race after a layoff?; well, maybe it was a bit of all 3; the nice part is Terranova feels good enough about her to move her back UP in price and her 2 best results now have come on dirt; 2 sibs to race are Marathon Moon (6 wins, $92K) and Horsche (2 wins, $61K).

Starkers

2 very encouraging outings to start her career as she ran 2nd for $25K at PRX Nov. 12 and 2nd vs. Pa.-bred straight maidens at PEN Dec. 4; back in for a tag but it's a lot more than the $25K they offered her for first time out and while it's her first time here she's already handled 2 different tracks in as many tries; lone sib is Earth to Mickey (2 wins, $50K).

Star Empress

Looks awfully scary; not only has she flashed talent running 3rd in her last 2 (which came after over 14 months on the bench) but those also came vs. straight maidens; so, now with those 2 nice outings under her belt she takes the most significant drop in the game for a trainer who continues his strong work after setting an NYRA record for wins in a year in 2013; 1 of 3 sibs is winner Star of Whitney (12 wins, $267K, 6-time SW).

Resolute Babe

Debut at GP vs. straight maidens last March wasn't very pretty but then came over 6 months off and a decent 2nd, albeit well-beaten (9 lengths) for $35K at BEL Sept. 25; freshened again but now up in price; gap in the works from Nov. 9 to Dec. 26 is a bit disconcerting; daughter of G1 Ky. Derby/Preakness hero and champion 3yo Big Brow; 2 sibs have yet to win from 3 and 1 start, respectively.

Lili St. Cyr

Sire Lido Palace gets over 5% debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 11 of 23 for $2.7 million, was 4-time G1 SW in Chile, came to U.S. and won G1 Whitney, G1 Woodward (twice), G2 Clark, also multiple G1 SP; dam has 1 winner from 4 foals to race, Bos'n Alwyne (2 wins, $50K); dam won 4 of 42 (8 2nds) for $40K; snappy :47.80Bg work at BEL Dec. 29 (3rd fastest of 56 at 4fs there that day) is most encouraging.

Rosemarie

There's speed here, yes; trouble is, so far her brakes have been working pretty well, too; remember, though, all that came vs. straight maidens so now there's a significant class drop; and while she retreated in all 3 starts at least the Beyers are heading the right way.

Conzig

Best race was a sprint, on dirt, for a tag; after that came 3 tries vs. straight maidens so now that she's back in for a tag maybe that will get the desired turnaround; didn't show as much speed in her last few, which is worrisome and while she was no factor here Dec. 22 remember that was her first run in over 3 months so she's eligible to improve; 2 of 3 sibs are winners including Truly a Myth (4 wins, $96K). - Michael Hammersly

Race 3

S'maverlous

New trainer hits hard 1st-time with newly-acquired runners; his debut romp over the track looks better now since the show runner Beyered 70 in his next-out AQU-35K-maiden-claiming win; figures to rally strongly into a Ten Items Or Less-Chapman possible speed duel.

Shore Runner

Like so many runners through the years he made the GP-to-New York move a winning one graduating 1st time over the track; have not seen many claimed off Pletcher go on to super stardom but this one looked like he had some talent off the long freshening; has to pass the class test vs winners.

Tug of War

With the trainer's 3-for-9 record since 2013 first off the claim this one is a strong candidate to move forward but the handicapping dilemma is that he hasn't been this short of a distance since September, 2012; his-AQU Inner Dirt win was at 2.3F longer on a wet-main track.

Chapman

Has loved wet tracks in the past which why latest-dull effort vs. Much Stronger was puzzling; has not fired since the gate-to-wire field-best Beyer 3-back when beating the show runner who Beyered 85 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming win; the 2-back winner repesated in a 100K-AQU event with a 94 Beyer has to beat Ten Items Or Less out of the gate then hold off the closers; the one to catch and beat.

Ten Items Or Less

His 2 turf races are the lowest Beyers of career so completely toss last; the long layoff is a concern but he graduated fresh; has to beat Chapman out of the gate then beat the closers which seems like a tough task; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 83 in his next-out SAR-OPC win; know him early then hopes to hang on late.

Much Stronger

Hasn't ever fired well on wet tracks which makes latest-exacta finish look that much stronger; dueled for the front in last but his best races are stalking and gets 2 good targets in Chapman-Ten Items Or Less to sit off from the outside; his trainer is having another strong Inner Dirt Meet; the pick. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Oltre' Oro

Passed runners in the wet-track career debut when taking strong betting money going off at under 7-2 odds; his sire never won past 6.5F and went 0-for-3 in races at 1M or longer; dam won her career debut at 5.5F noting her only route race was a loss on turf.

Brendan G

Is the one to catch with Qui C'est Moi stretching out beyond 6F for the 1st time; the 2-back wet-track exacta finish represents a field-best Beyer speed figure; tough beat headed 3-back vs. the winner who repeated in LRL-optional claimer with a 68 Beyer; sire was a G2-sprinter who went 2-0-1-1 in dirt routes; dam won twice but never past 6F going 0-for-2 in dirt routes.

Cuckoo House

Is also entered Friday but vs. winners at 6F in a 25K claimer; has more than 8 lengths to make up on Oltre' Oro from the career-debut defeat doubling the price tag for this; his sire was a G2-SW at 9F on dirt; dam's only race at 1Mile was a stakes-placed effort.

Percy's Ambition

Sire was a G1-SW at 9F on dirt; dam graduated at 8.3F on a wet-main track; wish he showed more run in the wide-key race loss for a trainer not known to win with 1sters; the winner and runner-up finishers from last Beyered 98-86 in next-out GP-OPC and FG-MSW wins.

Sean and Matt

Sire took a G2 event at 9F on dirt; is out of an unraced dam; good-1ster trainer but finished nowhere in the unveiling; the 4th and 12th place finishers from last Beyered 76-69 in next-out AQU-GP-MSW wins; high-percentage jockey-trainer combo but the barn is just 1-for the last-22 with 2nd-time starters.

Bridgeville

Sire was a G2-SW at 9F on dirt; dam never raced past 6F; offered brief speed in the key-race fade ar shorter; the winner and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 82-80 in next-out FG-OPC and 50K-maiden-claiming wins; is eligible for better for a 24%-winning 2nd-start trainer.

Ignatius

0-for-30 debut trainer since 2013; sire's only dirt-route race was a runner-up finish in the 10F-Breeders' Cup Classic; sire is 67-for-644 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 1-for-5 dam (24K) who graduated 2nd-time out in an AP-dirt 1M-MSW event; she produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race with top earner Judge Priest (1-for-6, 23K) who graduated at 7F losing both routes in turf races.

Village Warrior

Trainer yields 27% winners with runners using the biggest-class drop in racing angle MSW-to-maiden claimer; just 1 of 2 runners with route experience but lacked stamina off the bench vs. quicker; he posted a new Beyer Top for latest and is eligible to move forward 2nd time back off a 57-day absence.

Shylock

Adds blinkers for the 2nd-career start both are potential wakeup angles; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 74 Beyer; caught a wet track 1st time out and deserves a 2nd chance on a dry-fast oval; sire only ran on turf but took a G1 at 12F; dam never started past 6F.

Qui C'est Moi

Speedster has to outbreak Brendan G to make the front here then hold off the closers; he rallied from off the pace 2-back but stamina was the issue in the debut and most-recent defeat; sire won his debut but never raced past 7F; dam went 0-for-2 in races at 1M or longer.

Steve Came Thru

2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; he would need a significant Beyer boost to make a serious impact here; rematch with Oltre' Oro from the debut loss then finished evenly when stretched out for last; should be able to rally nicely into a Qui C'est Moi-Brenadan G possible speed duel. - Art Gropper

Race 7

Exley

This could be a premium play if all things fall into place (watch earlier races closely to see if the inside path is gold); the gelding broke maiden over the inner dirt long ago before becoming a solid, but one-dimensional, speedster at Finger Lakes; consider if aforementioned bias exists.

Say Mr. Sandman

Appeared home free in the last assignment only to be run down in the final moments; draws a particularly favorable post position this afternoon, especially if the inside pacesetter is challenged; should offer fair market value.

Money Only

His most recent rally is deceptive as it was compromised by the very slow second quarter-mile fraction in that event; should receive more a more lively pace here and that will be to his benefit; returns to the purchase price today.

Starship Captain

Had little chance in the last assignment when facing Frenchonionsoup, one of the toughest horses at Finger Lakes; makes his belated debut over this winter course and the return to six furlongs should brighten his prospects.

Rift

Although lightly-raced in comparison, this newly acquired runner must be respected because of the expert connections involved; most recent workout was lethargic but he raced against far more talented runners here 2 seasons ago; extremely difficult assessment.

Footnote in Blue

Similar to Exley in many ways (a scratch of one of these horses today truly enhances the chances of the other); he has finished out of the money only twice in his career and in the last test, he may not have cared for being pinned to the rail; consider.

Marquet Rebel

Although he made up some ground to earn a minor award last month, he was shut out in all of 2013 and it is unlikely he can run down the pacesetting crew here; his sole victory over the inner dirt was accomplished around 2 turns.

Avenging Spirit

The frozen surface prevented him from firing in the latest assignment; an off-track would certainly work in his favor yet the majority of his bankroll has been earned at the one-mile straightaway distance; back classy item is a puzzling possibility.

Alcomatch

Certainly he is one steady check-earner and his midpack style fits the race (especially if a bitter duel unfolds); seems to be rounding to form now and switches to apprentice handling; needs a clear lane down the stretch.

Tancredi

One of the great overlays on 12/29 if you knew about the racing conditions at Finger Lakes on 12/2 which featured an intense inside speed bias; the winner of that event, speedball Boston Chief has 17 career victories; must deal with horrendous post position today but still warrants support. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Typhoon Teri

Nice win on the big track here vs. lesser Nov. 29; then tried this caliber on the big track Dec. 6, dueled early and paid the price; at least nice to see no panicky drop by Galluscio and now they more to the inner; she dueled last time but doesn't have to be on the lead; in fact, her best work has come from just off the pace so maybe a return to those tactics can get her back on track...maybe.

Marcy

Toss those last 2 turf tries (she 0 for 9 on turf so that ain't her game) and you're then left with some solid dirt form; thta includes her maiden win on this track over a year ago; that being said, save for a good run at FL in the fall even her good dirt races haven't been all that hot, including being well beaten by today's foe Victoryat Last here last March; is wokring well for this but she's going to have to come back considerably improved if she's to have a way.

Downtown Hottie

Game win over $16KB foes on the big track here Dec. 8; that was a nice way to come back after 2 months off; trainer Rodriguez having a suepr meet and this gal showed she fits at this class level....at least on turf; the good news is that Dec. 8 dirt win encourages for her chances today; 0 for 14 here, yes, but 4 2nds show she's not averse to this place.

Motion Lounge

Solid 2nd in a spot like this on the big track here Nov. 21 shows she's a good fit; hasn't run since and it was over a month until she posted her next work, but at least it was a real strong work at BEL Dec. 31 (4fs in :48.20B, 2nd fastest of 35 at that distance that day); also nice to see there's no panicky drop and she's shown before she can fire fresh.

City Gone Wild

Gave Downtown Hottie fits in that $16KB claimer on the big track here Dec. 8 when 2nd beaten only a neck; so, doesn't it follow that if 'Hottie is a threat here that this gal is, too?; darn right it does; nice also to see that Esler claimed her that day and brings her back in a spot where she can't be claimed away; broke her maiden here early last year; but geez, could she have worked any slower than she did at BEL Dec. 29 (4fs in :54.60B, slowest of 56 that day), hmmmm?

Gloria Victoria

Looks awfully scary; after a few months off she came back with a dud on turf at BEL Oct. 19 but she moved back to dirt and found herself as she whipped maidens on the big track here Nov. 13 and whipped some decently NY-bred optional claimers here Dec. 13; looks as though she's on the right track and now Pletcher moves her right up the ladder; top Beyer (68) isn't exactly imposing but she may have more improvement forthcoming.

Hot Splash

Game win for $20K at BEL Oct. 25, Servis claimed her, brought her back at this level and she was a nice 3rd, not far at all behind Victoryat Last (1 1/4 lengths); that proximity to that rival shows this gal belongs as Victoryat Last can certainly be a player here; has versatility, too, to give Ortiz options.

Victoryat Last

Good 2nd in a spot like this on the big track here Dec. 6 stamps her a player; didn't back it up at this level here Dec. 26 but she's capable of better to be sure; got no help from the draw but at least 2 of her wins have come here; that being said, could that last be a sign she's just not quite the same gal we saw here last winter, hmmmm? - Michael Hammersly

Race 9

Camden Jane

Moves to the fence after the troubled trip left her beaten just a couple of lengths at odds on when turned back to this trip last time; she did zip through a half mile breeze here prior to that one so she does have some early foot and maybe she'll show some of it from this draw, but she'll catch several who have run faster on dirt that she has thus far; price will be much better this time.

Birdsofafeather

Showed good speed before fading in each of her MSW tries last year and now she'll try cheap claimers; barn boasts a recent winner on the drop to this level and this gray's lick may enable her to control things from this inside draw; looks to be the one to catch and beat at this level.

Sugeily

Low percentage outfit unveils a filly with slow breezes on her debut tab; sire gets 8% first out winners and the dam's 3 wins came on the lawn or going long; she's kin to 3 winners, 2 of whom who sprinting on the main track.

Livininthefastlane

Beaten odds on chalk didn't take to the new shades in her first crack over the inner and now she'll give the trip another spin; she has been victimized by rough trips of late and her better numbers do make her a threat with these; with a switch to a top pilot and a likely improved price she's worth considering.

Confederate Bay

Tried statebred MSWs in her first over the inner and had absolutely no impact; maybe the move back to claimers helps and she did run well over frozen footing at Finger Lakes 2 starts back, but don't know that she fits so well with this bunch.

Pari Nath

Adds the hood after being beaten just a couple of lengths at 60-1 in her first start over the inner track; number she earned in that one doesn't stack up so well with some of the gals she'll catch in this spot, though, and she will need to move forward to prove a threat for even a minor share; siding with others.

Zimbabwe Lady

New face in this heat makes her first start for a barn that hasn't had much luck with this type; numbers she earned for higher priced tags in Kentucky fit quite well in here and she did work ok at Belmont a couple of weeks back; contender.

L'S Escalator

Speedy filly moves to an outside draw after tiring from her pace efforts first time over the inner track; she gets a nice rider switch for this but has certainly had her stamina issues on dirt and from out here she could get caught in a wide spot which won't help her chances of staying.

Gramma G G

Took a little money first out in her muddy Finger Lakes debut but did little running thereafter; filly will be offered for a tag in this spot and maybe that helps, but the barn hasn't had any recent luck with its second out runners; winless dam did drop 3 sprint winners including SW and 126K earner Jazzy Jessy; don't like the chances of her improving enough to seriously threaten from out here. - Steve Grabowski