Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 4, 2014

Race 1

Knockout Beauty

Try to catch me; off the debut-sprint fade projects to winging from the gate trying to show a strong-2nd-time stamina/form improvement while the final yards here are the concern; sire was unraced; dam did not race past 7F; the 3F workout for this was not very inspiring.

Gingee

Steps up to face open company after 4 consecutive NY-bred defeats; a great sign that her last start the return to today's AQU-Inner Dirt oval produced a new Beyer speed figure-career Top; both of her in-the-money finishes were posted on non-fast ovals; hopes to sit just off Knockout Beauty while saving ground then if can repeat last would be hard to hold off in deep stretch today.

Pegasus Beba

Scratched Thursday from a Mile race for a lower-$12,500-maiden-claiming price tag; adds blinkers after showing nothing in last but a good sign that the high-percentage debut rider stays right here; sprint-to-route has been a good-win angle for her trainer; sire was a G2-SW at 9F on dirt; dam finished 8th in her only dirt route.

Notional Girl

Class edge here dropping to lowest-claiming price ever; has something to prove on the main track; her 1st blinkered 1st dirt start in last produced a career-low Beyer; the 3-back show runner Beyered 72 in a next-out GP-25K-maiden-claiming win; the August winner repeated in a BEL-35K-claimer with a 74 speed figure.

Iratinelexburance

Owns credentials to graduate; began career with 2 dirt in-the-money finishes but was troubled in last pair; the 2-back show runner Beyered 59 in her next-out AQU-35K-maiden-claiming win; was overmatched vs. the 3-back winner and runner-up finishers they Beyered 81-77 in next-out AQU-MSW and optional-claiming wins.

Flamingo Lane

Likely chases Knockout Beauty from the gate then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; have mixed reviews from last 2 races exiting a career-low Beyer after 2-back drilling a career-best speed figure in her turf debut; good try 3-back on a fast-BEL main track; new rider seeking answers off latest fade; main knock is that she's already lost for lower-price tags than 20K during career.

Vinhdication Spot

Is eligible to improve 2nd time back off the nearly 7-month absence; her 1st race off the claim with blinkers produced a co-career low Beyer; has not raced back to her career-best speed figure from the career debut on turf where the winner repeated with a 61 Beyer taking a BEL-20K claimer; needs to find stamina missing from latest.

Race 2

Cry Holy

Only one decent race since the all-out maiden breaker; at least she got a feel of the inner surface; runner looked like she was in a good spot last time on the drop but she caved in badly; she has more speed than she just flashed and maybe she is just sprint only; needs a rebound run.

Absolute Paradise

Some like this kind of play figuring that after a long time to graduate, the runner now has confidence but that can be a slippery slope; there is speed inside and outside of her; one can t argue with the top last race Beyer and she was inching away late; must be left in the mix.

Wisdom of Oz

The first race vs. winners was a decent effort but she has gone the dreaded other way since; she has legit speed and can come from just off the pace if need be; it's just hard to punch her ticket with three straight flops.

Radiant Cut

Beaten nearly 9 lengths in the lone dirt effort; the good news is she did win off the vacation, but she has not shown that kind of speed since; homebred has some things to iron out and backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Evasive Cat

There are some things to like here; she graduated on this inner surface, she could have just been overmatched in last and she ran super in defeat three back when nearly 3 clear; key off that race and she's a player; first time under the purchase price, you would figure it to be an all out go.

Yankeeindixieland

Note no published moves in November; maybe Romans just galloped her to get her into shape; beaten double digits in all 3 efforts on this surface and she has to find a way to turn the tables on the Perillo runner among others; must hustle.

Wildichi

Never in the money in 6 tries on the surface; fully extended in the Penn National win and wonder if it just knocked the starch out of her?; she had to take the time off and has been crushed now twice; passing.

Sheisnobedofroses

The good news she proved she could win fresh taking her debut; the bad news is that it was in 2010; would have liked to have seen a local drill coming to this race and with her style, she could be left with a ton of work turning for home; would tread lightly here.

Race 3

Flying Joe

Unlucky colt has gotten into a series of speed duels but may avoid that fate today from rail position; races for the lowest price tag of his career and might be able to steal away under apprentice handling.

Pacemakestherace

Dramatic cutback in distance for this runner who turned in a fair showing going long in the race 2 back; will need a dream inside trip in order to land a share and cannot be given the top vote regardless of soil condition.

Even Shower

Newcomer was sired by G1 victor Stephen Got Even who captured 1.01 million and whose offspring have won nearly 11 percent of their debuts; the dam won 3 of 24 and 80K; this is her only foal to compete.

Number Nine

Modest breeze pattern for this son of Freud who won 1 of 12 starts and 44K (his progeny have scored in 40 out of 347 initial appearances); the dam won 1 of 11 and 53K; among the winning siblings is 324K earner Take the Bluff.

Tactical Pal

This gelding's sire won 4 of 28 attempts and 163K (descendants of One Nice Cat are 5 for 71 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 6 of 28 and 288K; winning siblings include 44K earner Artuya.

Little T. Louie

See Number Nine, above, for same sire information; this runner's dam was zero for 5; among the winning siblings is 165K earner Dynamo Hum; has flashed some prompting speed thus far and can upgrade as this reduced level.

Race 5

Yampa River

Blinkers on today racing 1st off the claim trying to show better-gate speed after trailing throughout; the new-hood angle is an 0-for-29 move from her trainer who yields just 10% winners since 2013 racing 1st off the purchase; not a good sign that her 1st AQU-Inner Dirt in last produced her lowest Beyer speed figure of 2013.

All Mine Tonight

Is either very good or very bad while in latest she posted her 2nd-highest Beyer when edged in the mud where troubled and screaming out for more distance which she gets here; lone win at 6F on turf but has been good on dirt too posting 3 straight main-track exactas; jockey of last sides with Raven Rise while the new rider is winning 38% for the trainer at AQU since 2013; scary if brings her best.

Raven Rise

Beyer decrease in her return to today's AQU-Inner Dirt off the 2-back career-best speed figure on a fast track; she has been more effective on dry ovals; consistent sort with 4 straight in-the-money performances; has been a runner off the 47-day summer freshening and leaving turf; hard to leave out of the exotics conversation.

Spinit to Winit

Exits a field-best Beyer winning a key race before the long absence; she defeated the runner-up and 5th-place finishers from last they Beyered 70-48 in next-out SAR-MSW and BEL-20K-maiden-claiming wins; can she win off the long absence is the main issue but sure showed talent in the pre-rest wet-track win; the 3-back victor is now 4-for-5 capturing her next 3 optional-claiming starts with 97-86-84 Beyers.

Nonnie Connie

48 days since the beaten-betting choice in a key race; the winner and runner-up Beyered 78-69 in next-out AQU-optional-claiming wins; her lone win was at 6F in the mud so is doing the rain dance for this; was outfinished 3-back by the runner-up finisher who posted a 63 speed figure in her next-out AQU-OPC win.

Your Time Is Up

Projects to race on or near the lead with Bileaps and Bounds in a paceless event; she stalked the speed nicely in last to post a new-Beyer Top right off the 51-day absence hoping not to bounce here; was on the lead 2 back and generally offers pretty-good gate speed in each start then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Frosty But Funky

Is just a better runner without blinkers; they were removed 2 races ago then in last she posted a career-best speed figure; finished last in the 3-back key race facing 78-69 next-out Beyer AQU-OPC winners; has 24 lengths to make up on Nonnie Connie from that November defeat.

Bileaps and Bounds

Try to catch me; projects to race on or near the lead with Your Time Is Up; can blame either the muddy race track or being bumped at the start for latest-dull performance when trounced by All Mine Tonight who follows her here; when she made the lead 2-back she ran up the score to beat maidens.

Race 6

Flipcup

Statebred made short work of stakes runners in her local inner track debut and now she'll try open company; expect she'll be able to work out a ground saving trip from this inside slot and she is one of just 2 in here with a 2 turn score to her credit; field's lone strip winner looms the one to beat.

Fierce Boots

Stretches out after doing her better running too late on the main track last month; filly draws towards the inside again which should help and her maiden score did come at 2 turns so the added trip figures to be to her benefit; she's kin to G1 SP, G2 SW router and 865K earner Power Broker; has some ground to make up on the gal who beat her last time, but she can't be overlooked.

Spanish Gold

Maiden is her barn's second runner in this stakes heat and she'll try 2 turns for the first time in here; she's kin to 4 main track route winners including G1 SP, G2 SW and 678K earner Promenade Girl so expect her best to come out at this configuration.

Camille Claudel

Hard to look much more impressive than this gal did when stretched out to beat 4 foes by nearly 20 lengths with the addition of shades in the Laurel slop; she'll try both winners and 2 turns for the initial time in here and this is a significantly tougher field than what she bossed in the maiden breaker.

Ketel Twist

Forced the pace but had little to offer late on the cut back and surface switch to the local main track last time; filly should be prominent early again in here and she did twice run well without winning at 2 turns on the Saratoga lawn last summer; may prove to be the one to catch.

Alpaca Fina

She's 3 for 4 sprinting thus far and now this gal will give 2 turns a shot in her first inner track spin; barn has been going quite well at the stand and maybe this gal just wasn't ready for stakes company while trying it first time off their claim a couple of months back; dam was a SW router so it would appear that this gal will love the added ground, but her sibs are a combined 0 for 10 going long; still, off what she's done thus far, she's a contender.

Fleet of Gold

Bounced back off an awful debut in a big way when shades were added for the ship to Laurel; filly will make her way back to this circuit for the stretchout to 2 turns and rise to stakes company and with G1 route SWs on both sides of her pedigree she should adore the trip.

Derek's Girl

Didn't threaten the winner in her main track stakes debut a couple of months back in her first start for this barn; she did look good beating cheap claimers over synthetic footing first time out in California this summer and maybe she's closer to the top early in this heat but she will try 2 turns in this spot off a set of easy breezes and will get a stamina test on the drop out of the graded stakes ranks.

Race 7

Sheza Heartbreaker

Just missed on the surface switch while in against cheaper last time and now she'll try allowance runners; mare does not win very often and has settled for quite a few minor placings; number from her last fits quite well in here, but but she often finds a way to get beaten so we'll limit her use to underneath in this spot.

Endless Chatter

She took a big step forward when moved to the inner last season and ran well in each of her starts over the strip; 4 year old has been idle for over 10 months and she'll face allowance runners in her return, but the barn excels off the break and the inside draw should help her sit a solid trip; consider.

Hundred Acre Wood

Steps up off the sharp front running score when stretched out in her return to the inner a few weeks back; mare earned a career best number in that one and will probably have to work quite a bit harder to secure the top spot today; have to side against the repeat on the class rise.

Holiday's Jewel

Tired from her pace efforts in he local mud last month and now she'll make her first start over the inner track; while she's been better on the lawn she is capable of handling dirt and with others to do the early work maybe she's able to relax early and make a run similar to what she did 2 back on the main track; consider.

Hot Stones

She's a .500 career hitter trying a route of ground for the initial time while stepping up to face open company after getting her neck down to best statebred sprinters; her sire retired undefeated after 6 spins and his longest score came in the 7 panel G1 Carter on the main track; unraced dam's other foal to race was a limited sprint winner; added trip is a question, but she could be forwardly placed and has proven she can pass runners as well so the versatility is a plus.

What the Frost

She's another last out statebred winner trying open company in this spot; she's yet to go 2 turns and that's an issue but she boasts a solid stalking gear and is kin to a 2 time route winner; filly has had time to recover from her last and goes for a hot outfit.

Erin Enchanted

Returns to the allowance ranks where she had little impact sprinting 2 back; maybe she's tighter for this and she did run ok going long on the inner last winter, but she'll need to take a good step forward off what she's been running to step with these; prefer others.

Oblahlah

Draws the outside slot for her return to this circuit in her return from the break; sire was a G2 SW juvenile router and the dam dropped 2 route winners including G3 SW router and 299K earner Worth Repeating so today's added trip should help her; expecting a much better try at an improved price.

Race 8

Noble Moon

His connections thought enough of him to try him in the Grade 2 Nashua to close out 2013 and the son of Malibu Moon got rolling too late after being bumped at the break; 5th finisher in the Nashua won next out in a $125,000 stakes at Woodbine with an 87 Beyer; this guy was entered in the 11/30 Remsen but had to be scratched because of a case of hives; winning dam is kin to a pair of Grade 2 winners that banked over $340K a piece and his dam dropped a near $125,000 earner; legit threat with hot enough pace.

Scotland

Trying to break his maiden in this stakes is not the kind of move that Dutrow uses often so he must have confidence in this runner; trainer is one for 10 the last 5 years with runners going sprint to route in a Graded stakes and 4 others ran in the money; cut out to run as a $310,000 purchase, he sire was sprint only, his dam was unraced but the dam did drop a double route winner; value should be there.

Lawmaker

Youngster did something in his debut that is not easy and that's win long at first asking; flattered when the place horse in the debut graduated by over 9 lengths in his next out and then was a distant third in a $100,000 stakes at Maryland, future is bright for this runner as his half brother Last Gunfighter won multiple Graded races and earned over a million; Brown is 30% the last 5 years with runners that have won their last out; expect a huge move forward.

Pin and Win

He cut back and took one of the biggest drops in the game when earning his diploma in a maiden $25,000 claimer; eased in his first attempt vs. winners and although he has now gotten a feel of this inner strip, he only beat one runner to the wire; sire Stevie Wonderboy proved his stamina winning the BC Juvenile, dam lost 3 times and this is her first to race; colt was boosted a bit when the winner of his October 13 race won a $125,000 stakes next out; would be careful.

Matuszak

Runner looped the field going 5 wide to win his debut going a mile and a sixteenth at Churchill and he was fully extended in the process; very dull in his next two races, connections still thought enough of him to try the Grade 2 Remsen but he was hooked wide on a slow pace and only beat a pair to the wire; it's never easy to concede 10 or 15 lengths early and get it done.

Mental Iceberg

The first thing he must prove is that he can win against a field other than state-breds; runner nearly blew up the tote board in his grass debut and then saw all the heels in the Remsen; show horse in the debut graduated in next with a 70 Beyer, but then was out of the money twice; a career effort may be needed for this runner today.

Classic Giacnroll

Soph has fired every time, was inching toward the winner despite having mud kicked in his face in the stakes; Guerrero is 3 for 10 the last 5 years with sprint to route runners and 6 others ran in the money; colt got his last furlong last time in :12.53 and thast last race also came back live as the runner that finished 4th returned to take the $98,000 Don Rickles with a 93 Beyer and the winner repeated in the $100,000 Md Juvenile Championship; blood is there on the top side for him to get this distance as his sire won the Kentucky Derby, dam won thrice, all sprints but she dropped a double route winner; may like it here.

Master Lightning

Contender is the only double winner in this field and also the only runner that has won on this inner strip; he proved he could overcome adversity last time as he bobbled at the break but still prevailed; with not much speed in here, expect the rider to be very aggressive from the sound of the bell; just may get brave with a lonely lead; this is the 2nd oldest stakes race in the country and the winner of the first Kentucky Derby Aristides won this event in 1875 and Fusaichi Pegasus kicked off 2000 winning this race and went on to take the Derby and last year Vyjack remained unbeaten when he took this race coming from just off the pace to win in 1:40.67 with a 90 Beyer.