Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 31, 2014

Race 3

Deceived

Missed the break but garnered some black type in the Damon Runyon, in which he was well beaten in his initial venture around two turns; half-brother to the popular millionaire Naughty New Yorker earned a 75 Beyer while graduating convincingly in the mud here on the main track, which is the type of effort that would put him in the ballpark here; Maragh finished third on his lone mount at the meet for Gyarmati.

Sidearm

Checked in third for the fourth straight time in a recent six-furlong dash for N1X state-breds; son of Kodiak Kowboy has never run long on the dirt, and possesses the pedigree of a sprinter; prefer others on top.

Mark My Way

Son of Noonmark is bred to be a dirt sprinter, but made both of his starts on the grass; earned his diploma going a mile Nov. 10, in a race which has yet to yield a next-out winner; hot trainer Rice has just a 7% strike-rate with 61-180 day comebackers going from turf/dirt in the last five years ($0.49 ROI); a wild card.

Mental Iceberg

Freud gelding wasn't a factor in a pair of G2 stakes, although he wasn't beaten all that far after a three-wide trip when sixth in the Jerome on the inner track; broke his maiden at first asking on the grass, but definitely deserves another chance on the dirt; could get his trainer off the schneid at the meet.

Sandcat

Just missed in his penultimate race at this level, but was ineffective in a shorter sprint most recently after getting bet down to 3-1; expensive 2yo purchase is going long for the first time, and the average win distance of the sire's progeny is 6.4 furlongs; dam was a sprinter, and this is her first foal; speed threat?

Storm

Son of Artie Schiller is a half-brother to the stakes-winning grasser Thunderestimate ($183K), so it wasn't surprising to see him debut on the lawn; he got the job done with determination in that one-mile route, from which runner-up Forever Utopia exited to finish a distant second in the Damon Runyon; his outside post is a negative, but Jose Ortiz has a fine record aboard Pletcher charges; in the mix.-Ron Gierkink

Race 4

Cake N Cookies

On the lead in 2 of last 3 races she is the one to catch today with Lil Tiffy; hard to like latest a career-low Beyer speed figure where stamina was not her friend; has never raced on a fast-main track yet so hopes a dry oval will help carry her speed longer; know her early but unsure about late.

Notional Girl

8 weeks since a career-low Beyer racing with blinkers for the 1st time when making her 1st-ever dirt start which occurred on a wet-main track; stamina has always been an issue for her including the 3-back stalking trip-fade when defeated by the show finisher who Beyered 59 in a next-out AQU-35K-maiden-claiming win.

Bebes Passion

Only exacta finish was on AQU Main while her best Beyer was posted on grass; best race was stalking the gate speed but did not offer any tactical speed in recent losses; ranked a notch below the top contenders noting See See See has had her number in recent losses.

Bizi Bein a Lizi

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire raced exclusively on turf going 1-for-3 in turf routes scoring the win at 1 Mile; dam finished 6th and 8th in 2-dirt routes; 1st Lasix after beating one runner combined in 2 losses; down in price but faces open company after defeated by NY breds in 1st pair; would be a complete surprise.

Lil Tiffy

Speedster will have to fend off Cake N Cookies early then the closers late; rallied in one of her 3 exacta finishes but her best Beyer was when breaking sharply and sitting just off the speed; held on well 3-back at today's distance; view as a major player from bell to finish here.

Simplie Sinister

All 6 defeats are double-digit length defeats but is exiting a new Beyer-career Top; outsider added front wraps back in December while outrun throughout again; winless-2013 trainer was off to a slow start this year also; hard to recommend.

Lady C Note

Did not see any signs of a late run in last; her debut-show finish was rallying then was used up early 2-back on the pace; needs a well-timed ride to see best; would hope she could sit midpack behind a Cake N Cookies-Lil Tiffy speed duel then rally past the tired frontrunners in deep stretch; would need a big-form reversal off latest loss vs. similar rivals to graduate here.

Utopian Wife

Has not raced past 7F yet'; sire was a Grade 3-stakes winner at 1 Mile on dirt; dam finished 2nd in her only dirt-route; there is talent here; keeps trying to remember her-debut Beyer speed figure a field-best number on turf at 2.5F shorter than this.

See See See

Projects for a good trip rallying into a hot pace; breaking all the way outside is the lone issue as she is sure to lose ground; hopes Lil Tiffy gets early pressure from Cake N Cookies to help avenge the 6-length loss 2-back at today's distance.-Art Gropper

Race 5

D D Renegade

She's gone to post at less than 3 to 1 in every start and has shown both early speed and stalking ability; rail was gold here on this past Saturday and Sunday (not so much on Monday) and the Laurel invader warrants some consideration; should offer a better price in this spot.

Conga Bella

Warhorse has a huge edge in racing experience and was a clear-cut second in her last attempt; the draw back: she seems to prefer wide post positions and racing paths; may not get there in time this afternoon.

Rain Forest

Wheels right back and the apprentice in the irons has been on a tremendous roll of late; the grey mare should be able to stay within striking range and may be able to handle this escalation; would downplay her chances if there is a wet racing surface, however.

My Bella Beauty

Never fired when stepping up in company last month; the trainer involved has compiled an excellent record at the meet; this filly's best Beyers were achieved on the turf and the cutback to this quick distance may work against her; very difficult call.

Haldane

May prove to be a wise claim as she was particularly sharp in the last placing despite being compromised by the slow early fractions; has run well via the second start back angle in the past and should be a late presence against this group if able to find a clear rallying seam.

Chippette

This lady did not show her true colors in the last try when cast in the role of chaser; has a chance today to be the main pacesetter and the odds will certainly be more generous than in that last attempt; worth some follow-up if front-runners have dominated the card.

Broadway Music Gal

Even effort behind Mama Zee recently but she may not have liked being stuck on the rail that day; she can improve suddenly if there is a more accelerated pace now; could prove the right value play in a race that may feature a blanket finish.

Mama Zee

A fine try last month but once again draws the outermost post which has not been the place to be in sprints in recent racing days; on the plus side: she reverts to the handling of Velasquez who has been aboard for both of this filly's victories.-Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Nicholson

Had some trouble in his debut on the local lawn and failed to finish that heat; he'll get a switch to a hot bug for the move to the inner in his return from the break and the dam did win twice on dirt prior to dropping a 3 time main track sprint winner; maybe he goes better on this footing.

Beau Knows

Barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck with its newcomers, but they are profitable with this type; sire gets about 8% winners from his first out runners and the SW dam was a 2 time sprint winner who dropped 5 winners including G2 SP router and 324K earner Rockport Harbor.

Read the Mirage

Took a good step forward while moving to the inner on New Year's Eve and now he'll stretch out; barn does ok with its stretchouts, but don't know that he's going to love the added ground of this heat; have to side with others on the win end.

Howl

He's another who improved second time out and he held the lead in mid-stretch of that initial 2 turn heat; third place finisher in that heat returns in this spot as well and this colt defeated him quite handily in that one; expect he'll again be able to secure a good tracking spot early and with a move forward figures tough to hold off; one to beat.

Away Game

Gelding was given some time off after backing up late first time in blinkers when stretched out to 9 panels on the main track; he found himself a lot closer to the top than he had been before in that one and maybe he's able to settle a bit more early in this one; barn boasts weak numbers with its fresh runners, however; full brother Wilkinson, a multiple G1 SP, G2 SW turfer and 464K earner is one to consider.

Empower

Gets Lasix for the stretchout in his local debut after offering little in his well bet Gulfstream sprint debut last month; colt goes for a barn that excels with its runners who have had a race and this guy has had plenty of time to acclimate to the cold local weather; dam was a G2 SP, G3 SW sprinter out West but her other foal to race was a route winner so wouldn't be surprised if this guy were to move up significantly with the initial experience behind him.

Supermonic

He's burned plenty of money in his 2 Penn National sprint tries and now he'll tackle a route of ground in his local debut; Pletcher barn does a nice job with its stretchouts and the dam finished second in both of her route attempts prior to dropping a couple of winners, one of whom won 3 times going long.

Woelf Den

Showed solid early foot on the stretchout over this strip last month but proved little match for the runner up who returns in this spot as well; barn's second runner in here will move to the outside for this one so he'll probably need to be used a bit from the bell, but he has been working well of late so maybe he's set to take a step forward in this one.

Killer Crossover

Moves to the outside slot for the stretchout after showing some early foot in 2 inner track sprint spins; barn's second runner in here gets a switch to a top pilot for this and his G3 SP dam was a 2 time route winner so maybe he takes to the new configuration; worth a look.-Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Smokin Candy

Blinkers on here; he has race with the shades 4 times in his career and the best finish was the first experience when 2nd beaten a length; can't be thrilled with the local record, and note he has had the wraps for the last 3; needs to break out of the funk.

Kings Village

Senior citizen danced all the dances last year, just slowly; beaten by softer at Penn National last year and that race kind of jumps off the page; he had the excuse of the mud, but needs to really turn it around.

Portland Point

Bet like a good thing but made the backers sweat; since he left Woodbine, he has been plying his trade vs. much softer; hungry bug takes call, expect him to send hard and hope for the best.

Holy Invader

Wonder if Quick was less than thrilled when he got this one back to the barn after the 2013 closer?; it took the runner a couple of weeks to post the recorded drill and now he nosedives; last race came back okay as the 5th finisher took a $25K optional next out and the winner repeated in a $75K stakes here with a 94 Beyer; try to get a good look at this one on the track.

Pasta Lover

Over 3 times as many slices as wins makes him a tough on top only ticket to think about; he has caught off surfaces of late but note 3 of his wins came on grass; place horse 12/7 cashed next out for this price with an 88 Beyer; Jersey-bred may need own kind to shine.

El Oh El

Colt obviously likes this layout; the way he broke his maiden in Florida suggests he can handle this trip; show horse in last was 3 clear, runner has much more speed than he just flashed; repeat well within the scope.

Terminus

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 15 of 29; trainer spotted them great last year and has been firing with all of his barn of late; runner handles and kind of going, can be placed anywhere and still fire; respect.

Tulley

Gelding beat 2 home in the fog but the race came back okay; the 2nd and 5th finisher took N1X races at Penn and LRL since and the 7th finisher took a $25K N2L at Penn on 1/16; runner may have hated the good sealed strip but the wins last year came vs. softer; not sold on chances.

Becky's Kitten

Apparently not much of a work horse; repeatedly proven for this price, the runner that was taken down 2 back cashed next out in an N1X, lost next pair; must find a way to deal with the Esler charge but runner has some back class to draw from; don't sell too short.

Mr. Espresso

At least he got a feel of the surface, another it was off; crushed by the Reynolds runner last year and that race jumps off the page; would think long and hard before taking too short a number.

Sovereign Default

Have always loved the claim back angle especially when talking about a sharp barn like this; show horse in the July finale took a $20K claimer next out, lost next several; proven fresh, like the fact he has speed but doesn't need the lead to win; all systems go.

Awake At T Wire

First time under purchase price for this barn; and it comes off a win; hmmm; a bit more keen to run early in last and it worked; 12/20 winner repeated in a $35K claimer, then beat up $20K sellers; probably has to improve to repeat.

Money Only

Out of the money both times at this trip; 12/13 show horse won next out in a $20K starter, then beat N1X foes with an 83 Beyer here 1/12; must prove he can win outside of conditioned claiming land.-Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Marriedtothemusic

Is 1 of 4 runners to race on the lead in last; he projects to own the best-gate speed among that group of frontrunners; the last time racing off a 45-day or longer layoff produced 2 wins improving the Beyer speed figure in the 2nd race off the bench which is the exacta scenario for this; beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 85 in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming win.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

Last time racing this short of a distance was an exacta finish on turf; scored right on the lead in last through rather soft fractions while today Marriedtothemusic among others project to own superior-gate speed meaning he will have to revert back to his rallying tactics; January, 2013, a stalking win at 6F on a wet-AQU Inner Dirt oval represents a career-best Beyer.

The Big Deluxe

Sharp now snapping a 4-0-0-0 AQU-Inner Dirt record with back-to-back triumphs over today's oval; his last 2 pictures were on the lead but have to love the versatility winning 3 times last year stalking the pace which is the type of trip likely for this chasing Marriedtothemusic from the gate; has never been better exiting a new Beyer speed figure Top in the 2nd race off the claim for a sizzling-Inner Dirt trainer.

Ground Force

Tired behind the runner-up and show finishers in last they Beyered 90-87 in next-out AQU-optional-claiming and starter allowance wins; part of a 5-2 coupled entry Thursday with Be Bullish in a tougher-open company spot in a 50K claimer at 6F on dirt.

Be Bullish

Beat the show runner from last who Beyered 86 in his next-out AQU-OPC win; field-best Beyer was posted June, 2011, racing on the lead to win over a BEL-sloppy-main track in a 6F-OPC; is part of a 5-2 coupled entry Thursday with Ground Force in a seemingly tougher-open company spot a 50K claimer at 6F on dirt.

Bug Juice

Exits his lowest Beyer since December, 2012; the last time in with 113 pounds was a September, '11, PID allowance win; December, '11, victory was on the lead racing over today's AQU Inner Dirt; 3-0-0-1 record since the August claim when purchased off a win; gets a positive 5-pound weight swing vs. Isn'tlovejustgrand who handled her 3-back on turf by more than 2 lengths; shown best form on fast dirt during career which why latest can be dismissed when badly overmatched facing stakes rivals on a wet-main track.

Bellamy

Has to get by Be Bullish who handled him 2 back when he was posting a new career-best Beyer; he defeated the show runner who posted an 86 Beyer in his next-out AQU-OPC win; been a new runner since trhe barn change in November; overall have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Nearly There

58 days since winning in the FL mud; the 0-for-5 AQU Inner Dirt record does not entice while his Beyers are much lighter than most of these; last race over today's oval was a 6F-exacta finish March, 2010, in a 25K-maiden claimer; the 3-back winner repeated in an FL-10K claimer with a 66 Beyer.

Readytodefer

5-0-1-0 record during career with blinkers on; the hood came back on for last nearly 11 weeks ago where posting his 2nd straight last-place finish; good-fresh trainer suggests an improvement is on the way for this; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 90 in his next-out AQU-OPC win.

Dan's Gold

Mixed reviews since the barn change as 2-back represents a career-best Beyer while latest was not nearly his best effort; last race at today's distance was a May-FL alw. win; September triumph was on the lead at longer but in recent sprints has been a stalker type; off recent form getting up in time at 5.5F is the main issue.

Dr Disco

Was claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle; 1 of 4 runners to race on the lead in last but faded and with the speedy Marriedtothemusic signed on it compromises his win hopes; new trainer is just 2-for the last-24 first off the purchase; the 2-back victor won next pair with 91-84 Beyers; career-best speed figure was posted on AQU Inner Dirt January, 2012, at 6F stalking the speed in his OPC win.-Art Gropper

Race 9

Carole Lee

Returns from the break to make her first start on the inner; she didn't have much to offer in her last handful of starts prior to the time off but she does own back numbers that fit in this weak field; with the switch to a hot bug maybe she gets in the mix for a share.

Left Uppercut

Cuts back to sprint in her return from the freshening for a barn that didn't win a race all of last year; filly has shown route speed so that should help her secure a good spot early and she should have a little extra to offer in the lane at this shorter trip; consider.

Pleasant Shaker

Failed to factor sprinting against a bit better first out earlier in the month and now she'll get back to the track for a low percentage outfit that has won a couple of races at the stand; dam was a limited route winner, but her other foal to race was 0 for 30 on the track; just watching her here.

No It's Not Me

Makes her first start for a new barn after running huge over the track at the level a few weeks back; filly showed solid early foot in that one and she'll get a weight break with a bug named today; looks like they'll have to come and get her to win.

Locks of Gold

Tries statebreds for the first time after a wide trip did her in first time over the inner; she's earned her better numbers on the green and though she may find these more to her liking, she'll likely need to take a good step forward to get in the mix; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Rufus Ruth

Ran well to miss second money just a length when cut back to this trip in her first crack over the inner last month; barn hit at a low clip last year, but they do have a winner here and this gal does figure to get an honest set up here; expect she'll prove to be the main danger.

Signora Sofia

She's yet to hit the board after going postward 18 times and now she'll get back in with statebreds off her best try in some time; filly doesn't have any speed and she resides in a low percentage barn; tough to make a serious case for her threatening today.

Canela Rose

Found herself on the front end when stretched out a couple of weeks back and didn't have enough to go on late in that one; filly was rolling late while sprinting 2 back and she should have some bottom for the return to this trip; low percentage barn and pilot in her corner, but she should be doing her better running in the lane.

Mini Muffin

Drew outside last time and had little to offer off the subsequent wide journey; mare has only hit the board once in 15 starts, but she did show solid lick in each of her 2 inner track tries so maybe she's able to find a better tracking spot today; price will be right to try and get her into the exotics mix.-Steve Grabowski