Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 30, 2014

Race 3

Pete's Fleet

Monday's track played fair, but the rail was the clear path to victory on the inner track last weekend, and this colt has the speed to attain a forward early position; Contessa has surprisingly weak recent stats first-time off the claim, and is 2 for 24 at the meet when using Garcia; major player.

Three for Me

Rallied wide from the back of the pack to graduate at first asking with a decent Beyer under second-leading rider Jose Ortiz, who retains the mount; son of the fairly promising young sire Frost Giant is out of a router who's been a poor producer; consider him a candidate for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Pin and Win

Was eased after flashing cheap speed following a miscue at the break in his first try around two turns on dirt in the G2 Jerome; has landed in a more realistic spot here with Maragh taking over for his third local appearance; the sharp winner of his penultimate start subsequently doubled up in a stakes at Laurel with a 92 Beyer; a wild card.

Three Cents

Nicely-bred son of top sire Distorted Humor possesses the lowest Beyers in this $40K starter allowance; trainer has a 5% strike-rate first-time off the claim with blinkers off during the past five years ($1.13 ROI); doubtful.

Xixixi

Wired $25K maidens with a respectable 63 Beyer when he started last 28 days ago, from which the trailer exited to crush $16K maidens by 10 lengths with a 53 Beyer; picks up some weight because Franco is no longer a bug, but should be prominent from the outset for second-leading trainer Rudy Rodriguez.

Bourbon Therapy

Wasn't an impact player in allowance and optional-claiming company, after graduating with a 74 Beyer; half-brother to stakes-placed Raynick's Jet is getting some class relief while competing on fairly short rest; the hot bug Rice, who won four races on Monday, has had some success for this powerful barn.-Ron Gierkink

Race 4

Warning Trackpower

Draws the fence again after breaking at the back of the pack and getting stuck in a wide spot first out at the trip; dam won twice and all 4 of her other foals to race are multiple winners including G3 SP, 181K earner Powhatan County, so maybe he shows up with more to offer today.

Shangaloo

Tried Finger Lakes maidens first out last summer but didn't have much left after recovering from a slow break to track the front runner; she'll get Lasix and is kin to 5 winners so maybe this group is more to her liking; still, she's got a lot of moving forward to do in order to threaten.

Optimistic Cat

She's yet to earn a positive Beyer in 2 career sprint starts including most recently at the level over this inner strip; filly goes for an outfit that hasn't had any recent luck second back from the break and there's not a lot to suggest a move forward is on tap; passing on this big price.

Keen On Green

Hot bug gets aboard a filly who showed nothing first out at this trip; statebred is kin to a couple of sprint winners, but she will move in to face open company in this spot and looks to have her work cut out for her today; just watching off that debut run.

Halos and Angels

She's the first of her sire's offspring to make it to the races and she's the lone foal out of a 3 time sprint winning dam; barn doesn't have much luck first time out and the works don't suggest there's a lot of ability here.

Heartfelt Jazz

New York bred catches a weak field while moving back in with open company foes off another solid effort over this strip; like the improved early foot she showed in that last one and she has had 6 weeks to get over that effort; looks to be the one to beat.

Gramma G G

She's another who tried Finger Lakes MSWs first out without much luck and now she'll tackle local claimers for a barn that's been on a poor run with second out runners; she did catch a wet track in that initial run and is kin to a few winners including minor SW and 126 earner Jazzy Jessy.

L'S Escalator

Tracked the front runners from a wide spot and held third money at the trip and level while earning this field's best career number; she's had plenty of chances and she draws outside again, but she has speed and doesn't face all that much in here; appears to be the main danger.-Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Ravalo

There was a time he would have been real, real tough; alas, he's a 10yo now and his last 2 starts don't exactly get the pulse racing, making you wonder if time and all those furlongs are finally taking their toll; that being said, sure nice to see that Levine saw fit to plunk down $62,500 to claim him (as a 9yo) just 2 months ago and while he's under his claimed price it's still no fire sale for this kind of number; still, it's a salty bunch so he's got some work to do but hey, you need only go back to Sept. 25 to see the type of performance level it will take to win this; deserves a round of applause when he returns to be unsaddled regardless of the result.

Ground Force

Coupled with Be Bullish;smart win on the big track Nov. 8 but then chaed the pace on this track Dec. 11 before fading to 5th; freshened since and it's nice to see no huge drop by Jacobson; heck, he claimed this guy for $35K Oct. 4 so he keeps him above his claimed price, which is encouraging; Jacobson/Lopez are a super 5 for their last 8 (63%) together.

I Want You to Know

Pressed the pace before giving way to run 5th on the big track Nov. 20; Contessa saw fit to claim him for $35K that day, which is nice, though it's a tad worrisome he hasn't run since; after all, you don't usually claim a horse just for the sake of feeding it; the good news, though, is he returns up in price and he's had numerous other gaps in his schedule so maybe you shouldn't view this most recent freshening in a negative light; still, you have to go back to LRL last winter to find his last win and this is surely a tougher spot.

Night Maneuver

Need only go back to July 20 to see a monster win at SAR and big Beyer (105); things soured some after that, though that's understandable considering he ran so big last spring/early summer; freshened a coupe months and came back with a nice 3rd in a stakes here just 14 days ago; drops in for a tag but as noted with a few others in here, he's no giveaway from this kind of price.

Scherer Magic

Came from SoCal and made an immediate splash, winning here Dec. 14 for $35K; then was a well-beaten 3rd here Dec. 22, was claimed for this price but chucked in a clunker here Jan. 1; in his defense, that New Year's Day run was routing and he broke slowly; back to a sprint here, which has to help, and it's nice to see no panicky drop by Friedman.

In the Beat

While you can forgive his Jan. 18 dud (was in a stakes race, sent off at 110-1) it's harder to forgive his previous 4 outings; he wasn't really a factor in the lane in any of those and they were all spots that likely can be viewed as not as harsh as this spot; does have some speed, yes, but note those last 3 were his first starts on this track and it's tough to say he's really embraced the pace, right?

Be Bullish

Coupled with Ground Force; 9yo has been a warrior for a long time; heck, you don't win 14 times by accident; looks like there's still gas in the tank, too, as he beat some nice NY-breds here a few weeks ago; may not be the stakes horse he once was but that win and its 87 Beyer shows he's still got enough oomph to certainly be scary here.

Kingsford Drive

Big win in the BEL mud Sept. 21 was followed by a nice 2nd in another tough race there; that was enough to earn a shot at a GP stakes Dec. 7 and after setting the pace he faded to 4th; no shame in that at all; freshened since and that move has worked well for him before; that GP try looks better, too, when you note 3 he faced that day came right back to win; speed to be in it from the get-go.-Michael Hammersly

Race 6

Nowurcookinwithgas

Drops in for a tag for the initial time after being given a little extra time off following her second fade in MSW company; she'll try the inner strip for the first time with a talented bug named but don't know that she'll show up with the lick needed to secure a good spot from down inside; class relief does warrant her a look for one of the minor slots, though.

She's a Sizzler

Beaten last out chalk has had plenty of chances but she's also picked up several minor awards and catches a field that doesn't appear very imposing; filly has a right to be tighter second back from the freshening and this barn has had a very nice meeting thus far; looks to be a bit threat on the rise back to this level.

Very Precious

Hood goes on as she steps up while also catching some of the gals who defeated her last time; filly hasn't shown much lick so maybe the equipment changes helps her move up some and both of her sibs are sprint winners; barn is going ok here and a solid journeyman pilot gets a leg up today.

Fashionation

She's finished third in each of her 2 starts over the inner and now she'll step up the class ladder for her first off this profitable claiming outfit's buy; her numbers are light, but she'll get a switch to a stronger pilot for this and with just a couple of starts under her belt maybe she's set to take a step forward; consider.

Crazy Over Easy

Sire gets 15% first out winners from his runners and the dam was a limited sprint winner who dropped a couple of minor sprint winners; barn and pilot are in the middle of nice meetings and the outfit does know how to get them ready to fire right out of the box.

See Me Sometime

Moves back to claimers following a weak MSW spin first time off this low profile outfit's buy; filly didn't have much to offer first out at the level last month and she's the first foal to race out of a dam whose 2 wins came routing; may be better when stretched out.

Unafraid

Sire gets about 6% winners from his debut runners and she's the first foal out of a dam who was winless from 9 starts; works aren't much and the barn isn't know for its work with newcomers; would need to take serious tote support to warrant a second look.

Lemme Rock

Flashed improved early foot from the outside slot when trying the inner for the initial time on the class drop earlier in the month; filly did hold second money over one of these in that one and though she again draws outside she doesn't look to be facing much early heat; one to catch and beat.-Steve Grabowski

Race 7

City Gone Wild

Exits her worst-lengths back defeat of career defeated by more than 14 when racing 1st off the claim; March-AQU Inner Dirt graduation was at longer 1 Mile and 70 yards; her best Beyer speed figure was sprinting on BEL dirt; her last win was at longer than 1 Mile at FL; off latest would be a complete surprise.

Marcy

Posted her best Beyer since February off the 62-day absence with some concerns if she can repeat that big race returning here with just 3 weeks between starts; offered brief speed in latest but her wins have been after receiving stalking trips; figures to save ground behind the speedy Princess Mara then hopes to find the missing stamina and wear that one down in deep stretch.

Jerusalem Stone

124 days since her 3rd straight dull race defeating 3 runners combined; both wins on dirt so will be happy to get off the grass although latest comes back as a Beyer-career Top; last start on AQU Inner Dirt was a Mile victory rallying well at today's distance and should work out a strong closer's trip behind likely pacesetter Princess Mara; the 3-back winner repeated to make it 4-for-4 scoring in a BEL-122K stakes with an 86 Beyer.

Gloria Victoria

On the lead in her maiden win but showed versatility by scoring from off the pace vs. winners 2-back; see upside noting she still hasn't raced back to her Beyer-career Top in the unveiling sprinting; the graduation score 3 back looks better since the runner-up finisher Beyered 65 in her next-out AQU-MSW win.

Great Gracie Dane

Needs a big wakeup call after beating 4 runners combined from her last 3 starts; the winner from last repeated in a 75K stakes with an 80 Beyer; her field-best speed figure was posted January, 2012, in a 1-Mile and 70-yard romp on AQU Inner Dirt rallying from midpack to score.

Princess Mara

Projects as the one to catch with Hundred Acre Wood; she is clearly at her very best when allowed to race loose on an easy lead; the gate break means everything here; she won back-to-back in the spring so when she gets good stays good.

Erin Enchanted

Ranked as an outsider here off the far-back defeat vs. Hundred Acre Wood who follows her here; best game has been when able to stalk the speed but showed zero early zip in last while her last 4 races have been way off her best form; career-best Beyer occurred on a wet track which did not help her at all 2 back; the 3-back DQd winner Beyered 84 in her next-out AQU-optional-claiming victory; a tough call.

Downtown Hottie

Was 1-for-19 on dirt until the 2-back wet-main track score then showed nothing in last; much-more accomplished grass runner with her last turf victory at today's Mile distance which seems like a good stamina fit for her; reunites with the AQU-April grass-win rider for this.

Hundred Acre Wood

To make the lead today would have to fend off Princess Mara early then to win it all hold off all the closers late; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 67 in her next-out AQU-OPC win; usually front wraps added are a bad sign but she fired a career-best speed figure in last and the 2-back win was sharp; was no match for Princess Mara when they faced in May; view as a pace presence for part.

Familyofroses

Figures to work out an ideal trip stalking the speed; easily handled Great Gracie Dane in latest but could not handle the winner from last who repeated in a 75K stakes with an 80 Beyer; beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 63 in her next-out AQU-OPC win.

Guyana Princess

Horse for the course was purchased by a high-percentage 1st-off-the-claim trainer; is all freshened up for the Inner Dirt; posted a 1-for-23 record everywhere else but over today's surface; both wins over the track were at much shorter 6F; faced stakes company the last time racing locally; her last victory was September, 2012, in a 15K claimer in a BEL-6.5F dirt event.-Art Gropper

Race 8

Colleen's Sailor

Competed in all three legs of the 2012 Canadian Triple Crown, which featured a show finish on dirt in the Prince of Wales Stakes; reaffirmed that dirt is his preferred surface when he went on a two-race win binge at Finger Lakes, and his local debut in a stakes was encouraging; speed threat.

Don Dulce

Velasquez appears to have chosen this classy David Jacobson charge over the hard-knocking Colleen's Sailor; was a hanging second in three consecutive longer stakes in the fall, while earning an average Beyer of nearly 93; Don is tagged for the first time since he was claimed for $100K in September, and is probably the one to fear most.

Keep the Canoli

Only got an 80 Beyer when he eked out a win in a recent optional claimer in the mud at Parx, from which the third horse exited to finish a dull fourth at the same class; will have to take his game to another level if he's to make his presence known in the contentious contest; don't believe that he's up to the task at hand.

Rush Now

Terranova is an impressive 3 for 5 (60%) first-time off the claim over the past five years ($4.90 ROI); classy stakes winner has lots of gaps in his form, and has obviously had some issues, but he's a force when he brings his "A" game; may take some catching with the accomplished speed rider C.C. Lopez getting the return call.

Regulus

Showed less speed than usual last time when he added the hood, and the blinkers come off for this engagement; gelding has tactical speed, and could assume a stalking position near Colleen's Sailor and/or Rush Now; don't like his chances if the rail is golden, like it was last weekend.

Beautyinthepulpit

Chestnut has been idle since the fall of 2012, when he trailed in a tough four-horse stakes won by the mighty Saginaw; Brown was shut out with six-month-plus comebackers over the 13 months, but is 1 for 4 at the meet when he's given Jose Ortiz a leg up; figures to need one or two before getting back into the groove.-Ron Gierkink

Race 9

Heading to Boca

After a fine sprint debut, he lost all chance at the start of his first route attempt; his sire won the G1 Hopeful and 239K; the dam scored in 2 of 8 appearances earning 72K; among the winning siblings is 83K earner Colony Crossing.

Karamojo

Sharp improvement when racing for this price tag for the first time; the trainer is an expert in all of the relevant categories with the specialty of turn back types such as this; must be respected on that basis.

Holyicious

Tries blinkers after flashing better early foot in the last run; draws much more favorably now and should be an immediate factor; son of Holy Bull enjoyed the transition to a fast racing surface; consider.

Brilliant Einstein

Failed to fire first time out after a troubled start; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.94 million; the dam won 4 of 42 and 119K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; wheels back quickly and generous odds assured.

Television Too

Upgraded in the latest try when involved with the pace; will likely have to deal with Cuckoo House at some point during the running and that battle could prove the key to this race's outcome; a square price is certain.

Steve Came Thru

Tries a sprint for the first time and although trounced in the last route attempt, that race comes up fast in overall quality; can upgrade in a hurry if able to catch a wet track which was the case in that fair showing 2 races back.

Cuckoo House

Beaten favorite tired in the final furlong 10 days ago but draws outside of pace rival Television Too once again; has had more than his share of bad racing luck during his short career and may achieve ideal stalking position today.

Shanks for Nothin

Made the public choice earlier this month after a respectable maiden voyage in December; his sire won 4 of 16 and 562K while the dam was without a tally in 6 attempts; among the winning siblings is 252K earner Shankopotamus.

Eltanin

Respectable initial run when outfinished for the place in the final yards; this grey's sire and dam never made it to the starting gate; among the winning siblings is 215K earner Catcominatcha.

Prince Raja

Fair breeze pattern for this son of Songandaprayer who banked a G1 stakes and 380K (his progeny have won 61 out of 599 debuts); the dam was zero for 2 lifetime; there are no winning siblings to highlight.-Jim Kachulis