Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 26, 2014

Race 1

Brother Ralphie

Sire is 89-for-823 with 1st-time starters; is out of a stakes-winning dam (3-for-10, 163K) who produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including SW-Heiko (3-for-21, 151K); the rail draw is often a tricky post position for any inexperienced runner but catches a field lacking superstars at 1st asking.

Qui C'est Moi

Troubled in both starts over the AQU-Inner Dirt but comes in with an improving-career Beyer speed figure pattern while overmatched in latest; tired in the lane in last which makes today's added distance an issue; one day will get a clean trip to see best form.

England

Debut-runner-up finish when dueling on the lead through hot-early fractions represents a field-best Beyer speed figure; great sign that the new trainer yields 25% winners with runners 1st time in the barn; good sign that he exits the best half-mile workout on the tab; if breaks well figures tough to catch.

Dynamic Chime

Has more experience than all of these as he cuts back to a sprint after primed for this middle moving going long; did not fire 3-back vs. lesser which makes him a tough call here; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 83 in his next-out 50K-maiden-claiming victory.

Yes I'm True

Some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out; he has plenty of room to move forward off the last-place 58-1 unveiling; the MSW-to-maiden-claiming class drop is considered to be the biggest in racing; gate-bullet workout on display suggests we will see a much-better effort for this.

Even Shower

Wanted no parts of a wet track or route racing in last seeing the Beyer regress 2nd-time out which is almost always an improvement race; the way he rallied at shorter on a fast track 1st time out it would seem to set him up nicely for a 6F event; main issues are stepping up in class off a loss while Dynamic Chime who handled him 2 weeks ago and is back for the rematch.

Cuckoo House

Hopes to set up right outside of England then hopes to wear that one down in deep stretch; is back in under one week; the short-return move is a 1-for-14 angle for the trainer since 2013; beaten-betting choice when stalking the pace; needs a well-timed ride to graduate; debut is a career-best Beyer when beating Dynamic Chime as they chased the runner-up finisher who Beyered 83 in his next-out 50K-maiden-claiming victory. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Prince Curlin

After they put up 10 or 12 defeats, the wind generally goes out of the sails; most of these runners have all had their chances; no talent last year and a pretty bleak future for most; this guy is back quickly, maybe he can strike while the iron is tepid.

Flashy Ross

Bothered two back, gelding moved up in the off going a bit last time; lack of speed a concern and the key to this race may be to identify who will make the lead; this probably is not the customer; hard to adore.

Moonlite Encounter

Even after the decent 2nd two back, fans didn't exactly go to the well at 18-1 and it was wise; new bug takes the call, and the tyro has been improving; must be considered in this very ordinary race.

My New Hope

At least he has a bit of speed in a race pretty much devoid of that commodity; between foes in last and that's not comfortable for any aged horse; best races have come at Finger Lakes, maybe another road trip would be the thing to do.

Ask About Me

He has the 2 races to draw from but not sure how much he got out of either; anything close to a repeat of his inner strip debut would put him in the thick of it but that was a long time ago; never been this cheap and barn has been firing; a good thing in an ordinary race?

Magical Salute

Boxcars every time and even in this short field, he'll be a number; at least he blew out decent last week but he has lost ground in the lane in every race except one; not sure how you spin this form in the right direction.

Quiet Value

Only 2 off the lead early, but then the bottom fell out; he goes inside to the outside here and he's only beaten 1 horse in the last 2 races; passing. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Lawmaker

Brown thought enough to run him back in the Jerome off merely a maiden win at Laurel, and the horse wasn't disgraced, losing by less than 5 lengths to Noble Moon; was a half length behind Matuszak, who had more experience than him going into the race; so this one seemingly has more room to move forward; edge.

Matuszak

Ran sixth in a slow paced Remsen and fourth in the Jerome; with this one had more early speed; he's a deep closer whose only victory came at CD in a fast paced race that set up for him; at least two of the three in this short cast want to go to the lead; contender.

Undertaker

Was entered in a one-turn mile stakes race at Laurel Saturday but seems likely to come out to race in this spot instead; this colt is a tough read, as his first two starts were terrible, and then he freaked; hard to tell if the change in style was the reason or the slop; perhaps both; well served by being aggressively ridden to take the lead.

Maximus Decimus

Got away with a very slow pace last time but still weakened to third in a four-horse field; lone win cam eon the leader but the horse to his inside seems likely to try to gun to the front; being drawn outside that one, this horse might take back a smidge, unless that other horse breaks poorly.

Kid Cruz

Looks like he has the potential to turn into a nice claim; he won for run when dropped in for a maiden 50K tag, and now he gets Lasix and stretches out to two turns; might be a smidge overlooked, coming out of a maiden claimer. - Byron King

Race 5

Seven Dreams

Statebreds moves to the fence for the slight drop and cut back and she brings no early foot to the table here; a top pilot does stick with her, but her inner track slate isn't very impressive and though her recent numbers fit, her style won't make things easy for her to have a big say in the outcome today; barn does boast some recent luck on the quick return.

Little Rita

New York bred tries open claimers in her second crack back from her Finger Lakes home; filly did catch slop while in with better last time, but she's now been off the board in 4 career inner strip spins; back numbers suggest she can threaten, but as another who prefers to make her run from out of it, have to limit her use to underneath in exotics.

Rock Show

Drops a notch in price after proving no match for the money finishers; filly hasn't been close to the winner in any of her starts since moving into a barn that didn't win a race all last year and there doesn't look to be much to suggest things will go better for her in here; passing.

Score Boyera

Stretches back out after holding second money behind the runaway winner at the level earlier in the month; 8 year old hasn't been out of the exacta in 4 career inner strip spins and that route try 3 back would play out well in here; contender.

Go Olivia Go

Forced a slow clip from the 3 path at the level last time but couldn't go on late and the runner up from that heat returns in here as well; maybe she moves forward with that step back behind her and her prior couple of tries did earn numbers that would put her in the mix here; 2 time local strip winner is worth a look.

We'll Talk

Didn't get much pace in front of her last time, but it was contested and she sat a ground saving spot so the fact she had little left for the drive is probably a legitimate indication of her ability; filly was 45-1 in that last one and she figures to have another tough time at a big price in this spot.

Twillerbee

Exits a sharp placing in which she worked hard from the bell in her return to the inner strip; she'll move to the outside slot in here but she does have solid tactical foot and could work out a nice pace tracking trip; local winner has settled for a lot of minor awards and her recent scores have come at Finger Lakes, but in this spot she's the one to hold off. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Testosterstone

Perhaps can be forgiven that first defeat last summer at Saratoga when involved in a pace battle at a longer distance; his sire won multiple G1 stakes on the NYRA circuit and 1.57 million; the dam went zero for 4; winning siblings include 137K earner A Prettydixie.

Frontier Scout

Steady breeze pattern for this son of G2-winning Posse who banked 662K (his offspring have won 37 out of 389 debuts); the dam won 29 of 75 attempts and 380K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Effinex

Progeny of multiple G1 victor Mineshaft, who had career earnings of 2.28 million, have scored in 21 out of 294 initial starts; the dam won 4 of 15 and 161K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Curious Cal

New face was sired by multiple G2 winner Cowboy Cat who captured 1.03 million (his descendants are 2 for 25 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 4 of 20 and 76K; winning sibs include 251K earner Princess Mora.

A Marked Man

This gelding's sire won a G3 and 354K overall (progeny of Noonmark have won 3 of 15 debuts); the dam won 4 of 19 and 264K; winning siblings include 65K earned Spinit to Winit; solid trainer/jockey combo at the helm.

John's Island

See Frontier Scout, above, for same sire information; this colt's dam won 5 of 39 attempts and 299K; among the winning siblings is 11K earner Funky Cat; there are even intervals to the workout regimen, a good sign.

Hampden Fiveone

Vast improvement in his inner dirt debut when capturing the place despite the extra-wide racing path; draws much more favorably now than in the last pair of starts and should be able to stay within range as a result.

Freddie G

Bet down to 2 to 1 in his maiden voyage, he lost much ground and never got involved; the colt's sire was a G2 type who garnered 583K; the dam was a G1 winner who notched 329K; winning siblings include 69K earner En Chantant; note fine blowout on 1/5.

Mark Twain

Failed to fire first time out but perhaps the wet-fast footing was the primary reason; see A Marked Man, above, for info about the same sire; the dam was without victory in 7 attempts; sib to 104K earner Wild Grace.

Super Nicky

Sired by multiple G1 winner Utopia who amassed 4.91 million (his descendants have won 6 of 134 initial races); the dam was zero for 3; among the winning siblings is 103K earner Carla Sweetrevenge.

Say Nay Nay

Extensive gate breeze pattern on view; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.77 million; progeny of Colonel John have scored first out 3 of 37 times; the dam won 2 of 18 and 87K; winning siblings include 59K earner Karakorum Holiday. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Lumineuse

3-0-0-0 record since the maiden breaker on turf; her last dirt start was an exacta finish but owns her best main-track Beyer speed figure on a wet-dirt oval doing the rain dance for this; have mixed reviews from her 2 fresh races just missing in one but in May showed nothng on grass which overall is her best surface; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Spinit to Winit

Best Beyer was accomplished on a wet-main track she is like Lumineuse doing the rain dance for this; good-return race and should work out a good-ground-saving stalking trip likely to improve in her 2nd start since March; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 70 in her next-out SAR-MSW win.

Dixie Sparkle

Projects as the one to catch; scratched Friday at 5-1-morning-line odds from a seemingly easier 20K claimer at 6F on dirt; was claimed off a non-winners of 3 claimer noting some runners have a tough time making the transition to a new grade after winning at that level; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-20K claimer with a 63 Beyer.

Irish Whisper

Long absence off the last-place finish in a key race with 4 next-out winners; the winner, show, 4th and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 90-79-78-75 in SAR-allowance-optional-claiming wins and a BEL-alw. score; mixed reviews for the trainer 1-for-12 with long absentees like her but the conditioner yields 32% winners turf-to-dirt; beat Spinit to Winit fresh in the debut stalking and hopes to fire back to that BEL win for this.

Agilion

Did not show much form pre-rest while her 3-back fresh race at SAR was a dull effort; mild worktab on display off the bench after being outrun throughout in a key race; the runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 81-76 in next-out BEL alw. wins;

Bileaps and Bounds

One race on the lead was a victory and hopes to make the front today but stalked the pace in latest loss and has Dixie Sparkle projected to fly from the gate; her 3 races over today's race track were dismal when defeated by more than 42 lengths combined including latest when no match for Spinit to Winit; view as a pace presence for part.

Kilnockagain

Undefeated on AQU Inner Dirt (3-for-3); the new trainer yields 26% winners 1st off the claim; her only loss was 2-back vs. the winner who is now 4-for-4 repeating in an AQU-122K stakes with an 86 Beyer; stalked the pace nicely in last off the long layoff and seems set to improve upon that effort today. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Carameaway

This gal looms the speed component of a classically structured entry; proven at this level in state-bred land, she may have just been overmatched in the recent stakes; miss has the 2 races to draw from, she's best when allowed her head and allowed to roll from the get go; look for rider to be sending hard.

Dreaming of Cara

Number taken down after the eventful trip in last; been a long time between drinks but 2 of the 3 wins have come on the inner; fit enough to record the drill on Monday, there seems to be enough speed here to help promote the late punch; dangerous in all the slots.

Endless Chatter

What can Brown do for you?; well, win at 33% is a start; if you figure this gal just needed the last, then you can build a case for a move forward; Castellano got a chance to figure her out; the one to beat.

Rodinia

She took to the inner like the proverbial duck to water; note show horse was well clear and miss proved she can handled any kind of going; 11/30 show horse won next out in a $20K optional, then was third beaten a length and a half in a $12.5K starter here Thursday; major threat right back.

What the Frost

Hung wide as she is out to make amends for flop as chalk; Royal Suspicion exited the race two back to win in this very league, then was 2nd beaten a neck in a $50K optional; she has much more speed than she just flashed; don't ignore.

Natalie Victoria

Hot claim box item seems to move up on this surface; she looms a clever claim off that fact alone; place horse in last took a $12.5K claimer next out here, 7th finisher beat $5K claimers next out; mare handles any kind of going; interesting.

The Best Option

Proven in his league in Chicago, like the fact he got a feel of the inner and he was inching toward the winner in last; 11/22 place horse took a $25K optional next out with an 85 Beyer; but will have to time the move right but this gal should be coming. - Brian Mulligan