Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 25, 2014

Race 1

Matt and Jesse

His last start at 9F on dirt was a wet-main track win; way off his best numbers in recent starts; the 10 minor awards in the Life box suggests he often races well in defeat; career-best Beyer speed was posted on AQU Inner Dirt in March a 1 Mile-25K claimer where he rallied from 5th to win; latest-win rider and pilot of 2 of his 3 wins sides with Lure of the South for this.

Itsagoodtendollars

Today's 113-pound assignment is the lightest of his career; finished a good 2nd in his only start at 9F; seems the one to catch here after setting the pace in last with his best Beyer since the summer; the 2-back race is a fast-key race; the winner, runner-up and show finishers Beyered 98-95-86- in next-out AQU-optional-claiming wins; co-career-best speed figure was posted on AQU Inner Dirt at 8.3F; try to catch me.

Frazil

Is 1-for-2 at 9F winning a SAR-2011 starter handicap on the lead; field-best Beyer was at 6.5F on AQU Main; held on in latest gamely at 1F shorter than this; likely battles Itsagoodtendollars for the front then hopes to hold off the closers; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with a 91 Beyer.

Wayward Sailor

AQU-Inner Dirt win was at 1Mile and a half; was claimed off a high-win percentage trainer 3 races ago then produced 2 dull efforts the latest in his return to AQU Inner Dirt where easily defeated by Itsagoodtendollars; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 87 in his next-out GP-OPC win; 2 races during career at 9F; the latest was a 2012-KEE-synthetic surface 50K-claiming win.

Pure Attitude

Late runner wants Itsagoodtendollars and Frazil to duel each other into defeat; is 2-for-3 off the claim closing well to win at today's distance 2-back; has been strong since purchased off a high-win percentage trainer which is usually not a good-win angle; defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 70 in his next-out AQU-alw. win.

Haverhill

4-0-0-1 in races during career at 1 Mile or over; today marks the longest-distance race of his career; the show runner from last his 1st-race ever on AQU Inner Dirt Beyered 97 in his next-out AQU-OPC victory; major-stamina test stretching out 3F for this.

Lure of the South

Lone race at 9F on dirt was a show finish vs BEL-MSW rivals May, 2012; 0-for-20 on grass but did not see an explosive performance back on AQU Inner Dirt for last but did post a new Beyer Top on a wet-main track; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 87 in his next-out GP-OPC win. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Skinny Margarita

Filly moves to the fence for the turn back to sprint after offering little in the lane in her initial 2 turn spin while in against MSWs; she ran well sprinting last year and does look to fit pretty well at the level; she'll need to get off to a more alert beginning than she's used to from here but if she does she could prove tough to hold off; one to beat.

Sweet Potato

Takes what's termed the biggest drop in the game as she's being offered for a cheap tag in her first crack on dirt while making her first start for yet another new outfit; while the dam's lone win did come on the green this gal's lone sib was a 2 time main track sprint winner so maybe the change in surface helps, but there's a reason some pretty sharp outfit's that had her thought it best to keep her on the green; nice to see a top pilot take interest, though.

Legally Bay

New York bred is also in for a tag for the first time in this spot but she'll be facing open company foes for the first time since the dreadful debut run at Finger Lakes; she was ok going long up there last year and her lone local main track try wasn't bad, but don't know that she's going to be set to return from 5 months on the shelf with a move forward good enough to take it to some of these at a trip with which she's not too familiar; have to side with others on the win end.

High Inflation

Missed hitting the board for the first time in 7 spins after missing the break last out; filly will try better in this spot and she hasn't run as fast since being taken by this barn at Belmont in early fall, but she has a knack for getting involved for a share and could do so again at an improved price here.

Lili St. Cyr

There's a recent gap in this gal's debut worktab but she did work pretty well out of the gate late last year so maybe she does have a little speed; filly is by a sire who gets just 5% winners from his first out runners, but the dam did win 4 times sprinting and 1 of her 4 foals to race was also a 2 time sprint winner.

Vinhdication Spot

Tries sprinting after a couple of off the board route tries since claimed by this outfit; the barn didn't win a race all of last year and this gal has yet to finish close to the winner on the dirt; tough to make a case for her, even in here; passing.

Lil Tiffy

Speedy filly moves to the outside slot after holding second money in each of her 2 starts over the inner; she encounters a field that looks to contain very little early lick so her tactical edge could certainly play out huge today; she's another coming from an outfit that didn't win a race last year but they'll look to put her on the lead from here and make the others come and get her; has to be run down. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Longride to Wisdom

Blinks and perfect timing proved the remedy last time; like fact runners in the company line were clear; some like this kind of play figuring that runner has confidence now and can build on the win; that can be a slippery slope though.

Stage Name

Freshened last time after the pop and stop debut and the route worked as third choice; she has been given time to recoup from the score and note show horse in last was clear by the length of the stretch; miss is looking at more speed here and she may have to come from a bit off the pace; needs very best.

Jump Two

Connections thought enough of her to try the stakes and considering she walked out of the gate, the race was not all that bad; apparently not much of a work horse, would have liked to have seen some local activity; top last race Beyer makes her a player today.

Keep in Mind

Don't be too harsh about last; she could not stand up in the off going and may have been overmatched to boot; miss was getting late in the lone win and now has to go a sixteenth of a mile farther; not sold on chances.

Appearance

Natalie J. Baffert was named as owner for the Cali race; the race over the track can only help, she was clear and the race came back fine as the third and 5th finishers took $25K N2L events next out; respect.

Andromeda's Risk

Totally dismissed on the tote but miss got an ideal 3-hole trip and pulled off the shocker; show horse was nearly 3 clear and passing horses as a young runner is a good thing; don't ignore.

Fast 'n' Firm

Soph must prove she can win on the dirt; she could have sulked in that debut after the poor start but she rolled anyway; note she has been off poorly in 2 of 3 and that must be addressed; 4th new rider hired; must pick it up. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Perfect Disco

Did not recover from a so-so getaway first time out; his sire won multiple G3 stakes and 532K; the dam won 7 of 16 and 228K; among the winning siblings is 61K earner Cat Ferrad; some improvement to the latest half-mile breeze.

Giulio Cesari

Interesting item on pace cross-reference; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and 1.26 million; the dam won 4 of 12 and 80K; winning siblings include 61K earner Sea Current; tough beat in a blanket finish from this same slot in the debut.

Brass Pear

His early speed has been consistent in recent starts but he might be denied the early advantage by the runner to his left; major jockey switch should brighten his prospects this afternoon but less appealing odds will be the case.

Ronnie's Whey

Considering the extreme post position, that was a very commendable try at the course and distance earlier this month; late foal's sire won a G2 sprint and 388K while the dam was zero for 20; winning siblings include 106K earner Roaring Conquest.

You Jane

Made up solid ground after breaking badly in her maiden voyage of 13 days ago; see the previous runner for same sire information; the dam won 2 of 12 and 61K; winning siblings include 91K earner Mark It Man; now faces the boys.

Mike and Bill

Offspring of Congaree, a multiple G1 winner on the NYRA circuit, have scored in 15 out of 197 initial starts; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 285K earner Pennington; distinct improvement to the latest half-mile breeze.

Sir Maurice

Went on a wild mission with the blinker addition last time out only to tire in the final yards; could be a classic case of the perfect turnback runner if his energy is harnessed properly; not out of the question by any means. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Noon Time Shower

Hood comes off this quick breaker as she draws inside for her second crack over the inner strip; she's the most experienced of these gals and she owns numbers that would make her a huge threat if she's able to run back to them; maybe the equipment helps her settle and save more for the drive but she's certainly had her share of chances.

Zafiro Azul

Turns back to sprint off a weak route try in her first try on this strip; barn doesn't boast much recent luck on the move to a shorter trip and the dam's lone win did come routing, but this gal is kin to a limited sprint winner; still, she's got some improving to do.

Regifting

Sire gets 6% debut winners from his offspring and the SP dam was herself a first out winner prior to dropping 2 multiple sprint winners including SP, 194K earner Red Liquor n' Lace, a 15 time sprint winner; barn doesn't start many and the listed drills don't suggest she has a lot of ability, but the moves are all breezes.

Saharan Serenade

Didn't do much running first out on the main track early last month and her subsequent drills haven't been much; there's not a lot of pedigree to go on from the dam's side as she's the first foal to race out of a mare who was winless from 5 tries on the track, but they did pay 75K for her in training last spring so there was something they liked about her; interesting.

Just Catty

Sire gets 6% first out winners and the dam banked 184K while winning 6 times (5 sprints); both of her sibs are multiple sprint winners including statebred SW and 242K earner Saltamontes who won first out on her way to 5 total sprint scores; barn hasn't done much late with its newcomers and she boasts only easy breezes, but her pedigree suggests she may be able to run some.

Saturday Bliss

Sire gets 10% winners from his newcomers and the dam was winless from 6 starts prior to dropping a 2 time winner from 4 foals to race; barn is capable of firing first out and they are going well here; if she takes tote support she's worth a look.

Keep Right

Runner up in each of her 2 sprint starts just wasn't good enough to go on when stretched out slightly to this trip in her first over the inner; filly is quick enough to secure a good spot early and should again be in the right spot to prove she's good enough; switching to a top pilot, she won't offer a lot of value, but she's the one to beat.

Heavenly Girl

Filly went for almost 10 times her stud fee at auction last year but didn't do much running in her debut heat; she'll get Lasix for this one and maybe that helps keep her going as all 5 of her sibs to race are winners and the barn does do a better job with runners who have had a race.

La Dama de Hierro

Turns back to sprint after offering some speed on the stretchout when adding shades and switched to this pilot last weekend; barn does boast a recent winner off the quick turnaround and maybe this gal has more to offer late at this trip, but she'll need to take a step forward on the figure scale to threaten.

Prairie Stone

Sire gets 8% winners from his debut offspring and the dam was a 2 time sprint winner; all 4 of her sibs to race were winners including 167K earner and 6 time sprint winner Seattle Louie; barn's been on a poor run with their recent newcomers, but they are profitable overall with them so don't let a long price damper a positive opinion.

Piccolo Flats

Sire hits with 7% of his newcomers and the dam lost all 7 of her starts; 3 of her 5 sibs to race are winners; she draws outside which isn't usually a great place to be over this strip, but he's been working well across town for this and the barn excels with its debut runners. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Penthouse Party

Negative 4-pound weight swing off latest 1-length and a half loss vs. Concealed where she was not close to that one out of the gate when bumped at the start; lone dirt win was on a wet-main track which is why latest was so disapponting; likely needs to break sharper noting her win on the lead in October at today's distance on grass.

Concealed

Try to catch me again; 5 straight starts on the lead but none of them produced a victory; the latest fade was a career-low Beyer speed figure; 2-back was a Beyer-career best so which filly shows up for this?; cutting back to 1 Mile should help the cause noting the nose loss 4-back when defeated by the show runner who Beyered 63 in her next-out AQU-$12,500-claiming win.

Prize Taker

Finished 3rd, 6th and 9th in 3 races at 1 Mile or over during career; the late-running sprints have not translated well when stretched out but tries it again today; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 68 Beyer; has plenty to prove vs. winners off latest double-digit defeat.

Gendarmour

5-pound positive weight swing off the more than 10-length loss vs. Uman Candy; posted a field-best Beyer at 6.5F on AQU-Main December, 2012, stalking the pace on a sloppy-race track which is why latest also in the slop posting a career-low Beyer was so disappointing.

Uman Candy

Just one race carrying as high as 120 pounds during career was a 5th-place finish; negative 5-pound weight swing from Gendarmour who she easily defeated in last; is 1-for-1 on fast tracks; that 2-back win was a dominating effort; figures for an ideal trip stalking Concealed.

A Prettydixie

Winless on grass so moves up now back on dirt; the runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 81-76 in next-out BEL-allowance wins; 130-day absence since that turf loss; she has never finished off-the-board in 5 fast-dirt races; last time on fast dirt was her more than 10-length maiden-breaking win at 1F shorter; see some upside.

Hope for Tomorrow

Blinkers on is a 1-for-23 move for her trainer since 2013; managed just 1 exacta and no wins from 4 dirt starts; her best main track race was over a wet track; the 3-back winner Beyered 61 in her next-out AQU-OPC victory; lone win was at a half furlong longer closing from far back; needs a pace meltdown to pick up the pieces.

Milkyyourway

The 0-for-10 fast-track record leaps off the form at you; the 2-back winner and runner-up Beyered 78-69 in their next-out AQU-OPC wins; lone win was October, 2012, on a BEL muddy track in a MSW event stalking the speed at 8.5F; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 63 in her next-out AQU-OPC win. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Teen Pauline

Caught a paceless group in the Affectionately and took full advantage, shooting straight to the lead and maintaining a clear lead throughout; the makeup of this race is quite similar; so it's pretty easy to envision her getting the same kind of trip; ran a fine third in the Comely at this distance without the benefit of an easy lead; choice to repeat.

Firenze Feeling

Is three for four and a stakes winner, but her top Beyer is a 77; she also prefers to run from 2-3 lengths off the pace; so she would not seem a candidate to run with Teen Pauline early; there wasn't much to that field last out at Lrl, and this one had her cause helped when the favorite stopped for no apparent reason; perhaps a share if she makes continued improvement.

Flash Forward

Toss her races in which she has been unplaced in graded stakes and her record is very good; she consistently runs Beyers in the 80s, and even once ran a 90 in beating Toasting at Saratoga at this distance; out of action since November, perhaps putting her at a fitness disadvantage; otherwise some things to like.

Centring

Lacking early speed has contributed to her settling for seven runner-up finishes over her career; at her best she is capable of placing in Grade 1 races, but you'll note that in those races the pace was usually quick; can't really change her style; so Maragh has to hope something unexpected happens and someone runs with Teen Pauline.

Royal Lahaina

Was away about a length behind the field last time, and made things worse by being slow to get in gear; that has happened to her somewhat regularly, though perhaps not to the extent as last time out; would expect Cornelio to try to get her more involved early, though you can bet Pletcher doesn't want to see his two horses duel; suspect Cornelio will try to have her 2 lengths or so off the pace, as she was in the Go For Wand; capable of running Beyers in the 90s when she puts it all together. - Byron King