Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 23, 2014

Race 1

Opalite

Will save every inch of ground and hopes the 2 outside speed runners duel each other into defeat to help set up the late punch; the main knock is her 2-back loss vs Dattts Da Boss who is here for the rematch; good sign that she reunites with the win rider from her March victory over the track.

Dattts Da Boss

Figures to rally from midpack into a solid pace; strong race 1st time over the track and is likely set to move forward today racing 2nd time back off a 92-day layoff; the 2-back runner-up finish is also a big effort as the winner repeated with an 84 Beyer speed figure capturing a next-out AQU-alw. event; reunites with the win rider hoping to fire just as well on a fast track as she did on a 'good' oval for last.

Flamingo Lane

Projects to work out a good trip stalking the 2 outside speed runners; main knock is that Malibu Queen easily handled her 2-back on a sloppy track and also on BEL fast in September; the win rider takes Nonnie Connie for this; she looked like a different runner racing without blinkers for last but is still ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Purling

Gets in with her lightest-weight assignment ever coming off a career-low Beyer racing for the 1st time on AQU-Inner Dirt; the 2-back winner repeated with an 84 Beyer taking a next-out AQU-allowance event; today is her 1st time racing beyond 6.5F on dirt while her only route race on turf was an outrun finish.

Malibu Queen

Hopes the added distance helps turn the tables on likely pacesetter My Donna Jean who should get early pressure from Nonnie Connie today; obviously wish her 2 Inner Dirt races showed more spark noting her lone dirt win was over a sloppy race track; will be doing a rain dance for this.

My Donna Jean

Was on the lead in her only win February, 2012, her 2nd-career start in a GP-50K-dirt-maiden claimer at 6F; has not raced past 6F on the main track but in 5 turf races at 1 Mile or longer the record is not good (5-0-0-1); the 3-back winner repeated with a 67 Beyer taking an AQU-$12,500-claimer next out; know her early then hopes to hang on late.

Nonnie Connie

The addition of blinkers for last 3 starts did not produce the desired results so the hood is back off for this; projects to race on or near the lead in this paceless event with My Donna Jean figuring to put some pressure on early; she outdueled the field when scoring the lone win of career posted October, 2012, in the BEL mud 2nd-time out facing MSW rivals; the 2-back winner and runner-up Beyered 78-69 in next-out AQU-OPC wins. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Insolvent

Came here in sharp form last month and sure took to the inner, bounding out front and drawing off to win nicely; speed is her main asset to be sure, and that last shows she likes it here and continues her sharp form; this spot doesn't look any tougher, either.

Porvoo

Tough to be too enthused; lone win came on turf, and quite a long time ago, too (2012); didn't do mucn last year and first 2 starts on this track recently don't exactly get the pulse racing; there is a drop, yes, and maybe it can help...but can it help enough?

Wildcat Thunder

Like Porvoo she doesn't come here sharp; did some good work last winter/spring but after a nice win in the slop at MTH May 25 things went south badly; got a summer vacation but if anything she came back with form that was even weaker as she's been no factor in 5 starts since, the last 2 coming here and coming against likely lesser than she faces today.

Matching Skies

So which gal to we get, the one who looked so good romping over $12,500 foes here Jan. 4 or the gal who hit the brakes here Jan. 10?; well, that big Jan. 4 outing has been more the exception than the rule as her prior 7 starts weren't all that hot; maybe everything just came together that day; it does show she's capable of a big run every once in a while but there have too many times where she didn't do that to back her with any real confidence.

Inaflash

Game win at FL, came here Dec. 21 and was a game winner again; that shows she handles this place and not only did her new connections see fit to plunk down $12,500 to claim her but they bring her back in a spot where they can't lose her via another claim; that being said, Beyerwise recently she's a ways behind the rail gal, but hey, she's sharp, has run fast before (73 at SAR last summer) and has the speed to keep the rail gal honest.

Stately Cat

Monster maiden win here 11 months ago (won by 11) and then came a good 2nd vs. claimers March 22; however, the pattern since isn't pretty - 3 poor races/8 months off/so-so return race; yeah, maybe you can forgive her last since it came off the bench, and it's nice they don't risk her for a tag, but it also came on the track over which she'd run so well, so did whatever sent her away for so long take more than a few steps way from her, hmmmm?; at least Persaud wheels her back quickly (7 days) which encourages. - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Muscles Marinara

Adds the hood for the move inside a slot after failing to hit the board on the drop to this level; he's had plenty of chances, but he owns some of the better numbers in here and does catch a pretty weak field; tough to get excited about him, but he's a contender.

Mach Seven

Showed good speed before coming up short late when shades were added for his first 2 turn try last month; he'll drop below the price of the claim by an outfit that was winless all of last season but he moves inside for this and could control things from here; think they'll have to come and get him to win.

Prince Curlin

Gelding hasn't been close to hitting the board in 11 career tries; he showed a decent turn of foot last time, but the result was the same as he failed to go on thereafter; looms another big price in this spot.

Uragano

Gets Lasix off a weak try in his first start back from 13 months on the shelf; he doesn't have any early foot and don't think that the new medication is going to do enough to move him up to contend off some ugly running lines; can only watch him, even in here.

Go to the Net

Makes his 30th career start in search of that elusive maiden score; 6 year old wasn't much of a threat on the stretchout last time and though he's run ok sprinting in the past, don't think he'll move forward at this trip; maybe for a share.

Prime Time City

Hood brought out some sprint speed in his guy last time but he again had little left for the drive; gray stretches out for a barn that hasn't had any recent luck with the move and this guy's pedigree looks to be all sprint; know him early but don't think he'll be around at the wire.

Bundler

He was given some time after failing to finish his last and now he'll try 2 turns; gelding hit the board in a couple of his starts last year and he'll get a top pilot while catching a weak bunch in this heat; worth a look.

Polaris Dream

Statebred removes the hood after another weak spin while trying the inner track for the initial time; he ran big on the lawn last year and did show he could handle the dirt; even in his current form he can't be overlooked in this field. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Henry's Gal

Wired $35K maidens at first asking as the chalk in her encouraging opener, and should be prominent in this allowance/optional claimer; the Jacobson barn continues to roll, and has solid numbers first-time off the halter switch; there's other speed in the field, but she might not need the lead to be effective.

Molly the Freud

Only got a 53 Beyer in her professional first-out score, but two fillies have already exited that event to graduate, both with Beyers in the 40s; trainer is 3 for 12 with second-timers exiting a victorious debut in the past five years ($1.19 ROI); in the mix.

Cryptic Comet

Outran Summerdale for second after dueling up front in her first try against winners at this level Dec. 29, which was won convincingly by the unbeaten Bridget Moloney; the capable bug Esquivel inherits the mount from Irad Ortiz, who's sticking with Molly the Freud; logical for the bottom of exotics.

Summerdale

Flashed speed in all three of her excursions, which were spaced well apart, and could only manage a distant third as the favorite most recently; homebred by More Than Ready is probably at her best on the grass, and appears to be no more than a minor player.

Champagne Ruby

Picked up some more black type last time when a front-running second in a restricted stakes to Flipcup, who came back to run second in an open $100K stakes here; a hot Linda Rice possesses excellent numbers with turnbacks, and this one notched a minor stakes over six furlongs; big shot.

Daddy's Lil Saint

Got dusted second-time out when she started last at Belmont, in a stakes which has yielded two subsequent winners (the winner landed a $150K stakes with a 70 Beyer); second-leading rider Jose Ortiz retains the mount and is 3 for 8 at the meet aboard Levine charges; prefer others on top.

Underthemoonlight

Performed well against state-bred maidens in both of her races here on the main track, but her graduation has yet to produce a next-out winner; Franco, who recently lost his bug, is 3 for 13 at this stand for this barn; she hasn't worked over the inner track, and is light on Beyers compared to the protagonists in the lineup. - Ron Gierkink

Race 6

Pari Nath

Even after the decent run two back, fans didn't exactly embrace her at 35-1 and they were right; can't be thrilled about the times she was sent long; would tread lightly here.

From Tiz Moment On

In career soft spot and she may have hated the off going in last; miss seems more comfortable with real estate to negotiate as new bug takes the reins; 11/1 winner repeated in an N1X in Philly with a 57 Beyer; expect much better effort here.

Bay Dawn

She beat 2 home and now goes up in class; why?; stakes winning 7 for 41 dam earned over $350K, was turf only; 3 of sire's 4 wins were routes; no help from siblings as the 3 others in the family were a combined 0 for 77; passing.

Chicks and a Pig

She has eventful moments early in both of her outings; 3 for 26 dam was sprint only, banked about $35K; 3 of 4 siblings won; 2 won routing including over $100K earner Evan's Rocket; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Gallant Lady

Miss is starting to figure it out and she could be more focused with the blinks; dam was unraced; 5 of 7 siblings won; several won routing including near $100K earner Lady Contender; she seems to be coming around.

Promise Me Forever

At least she got a feel of the inner surface; place horse two back graduated next out and the winner repeated in an N1X at Finger Lakes with a 51 Beyer; sire was a proven router; the sibling that won took one sprint; would be careful here.

Rocks Anne

Like the spacing of the comeback drills; route only 2 for 22 dam earned over $50K; sire proved stamina taking the Big 'Cap; 2 of 4 siblings won; both were sprint only, one banked about $75K; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Colonel Anna

Colonel John 3 for 36 with debuters; sire won twice at 2, took multiple Grade 1s routing, banked over $1.7 million; dam was 0 for 9; 2 of 3 siblings won including double route winner andnear $100K earner Diamond Donna; she doesn't have to be a monster to make an impact here. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Southbeachsandy

As always, track condition is paramount in this game and the expected sub-freezing conditions today will affect the outcome; this gelding is an underrated performer who prefers route racing but who draws coveted inside slot and sports a decent lifetime exacta record; consider.

Precious Metal

His record over the inner dirt is poor and the other Englehart trained runner in this field apparently stands a much better chance this afternoon; most of this runner's bankroll has been earned on the turf; cannot endorse until he returns to his preferred surface.

Meeker Avenue

Decent showing turned in only 10 days ago but, like the previous entrant, has shown little preference for the inner dirt surface; although he should receive a stronger early pace today than in that recent assignment, he probably arrives too late for the top prize.

Dr Disco

Statebred tailed off significantly in 2013 but the fact remains he is a .500 lifetime hitter over this winter course; the plus and minus: he is in the hands of a top-notch trainer but has been on the shelf for a considerable period of time; very difficult assessment.

Say Mr. Sandman

Stayed in the same approximate class during the last few months but seems capable of handling this escalation based on the sharp improvement 2 weeks ago when he earned a personal best Beyer; should be within striking range without difficulty.

Buddy Red

Raced evenly when outfinished by Meeker Avenue and he is another member of this line-up who has yet to score over the inner dirt; generous odds are assured once again and he will need a wet racing surface in order to have a chance for a share.

William Thomas

Trainer Contessa has been red-hot of late and this warhorse can add to his total; although six furlongs is not the gelding's optimum distance, he can return instant dividends today; latest blowout over the training track suggests he can recapture a bit of his old superior gate speed; strong recommendation if front-runners have dominated.

Tancredi

Trounced in his last effort while on a wide path, this performer relishes an off-track and is much better than the latest run implies; was probably best 2 back when losing to the heavy favorite while losing much ground around the turns; worth some inclusion if there is an off-track at post.

Suilleabhain

Hard to endorse as he has not shown any enthusiasm in the last few efforts regardless of surface or distance; has only one victory on the main oval to his name and is facing a strong 20 grand claiming contingent here; pass until further notice.

Trackmens Star

A trifecta player's friend and he does have a win over the course to his credit; overall Beyer pattern comes up way short though and the outside post is problematic; significant weight change to note but he still seems an unlikely hero. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Prohibition

Holds a huge last-race Beyer edge, having earned a 91 Beyer for a starter allowance win at Parx last out; is two for two for the Cal Lynch barn and now finds an opportune spot in this race against NY-breds; yet to race over the inner track, but obviously in top form; can afford to regress 15+ Beyer points and still be tough to beat; choice.

Joe Mooch

Comes of a couple runner-up finishes over this track, though he was beaten a mile last time when 10 lengths back and only holding third by a head; except n comparison to Prohibition's last-race Beyer, his figures are competitive in here; perhaps will move forward in his second route of the meet.

Petrocelli

This versatile gelding can run on turf and dirt, and enters this race in sharp form; occasionally throws in a dismal performance in which he runs last or second-to-last, but when he fires he is capable of a storng effort; can run Beyers in the 70s, making iim one of the fastest runners in the field; off a runner-up finish over this strip; contender.

Rocket Hero

Yet to play a role in three starts vs. winners but does exit a productive race in which 2 of the 6 returnees came back to immediately win, including 1st place finisher The Big Deluxe; this one had a troubled break last out but typically breaks in the rear half of the field; at least essentially paired up in terms of a top Beyer (a 64, roughly equal to his top of 65).

D J Manlove

This speedster was claimed out at Hollywood with the apparent goal of bring him to the Empire State to run in state-bred contests; that was probably a nice move; is out of an Unbridled Mare, but to this point has been strictly a sprinter; so the added distance adds an element of uncertainty with him; expecting a fade.

Ten Ed

Managed a third last time, but was never a factor, racing far back at every call and only getting up late to narrowly grab the show; was 43-1 in that spot; will be a shorter price today, but still looks a longshot on his body of work.

Always for You

Looks like an automatic toss out on class; this horse has struggled to win low end claimers at FL and that doesn't body well for his chances in a NY-bred allowance; is one of several in here that prefers to race on or near the lead; pass.

Noosh's Tale

Get the feeling this deep closer is superior on turf than dirt; he has gone unplaced in two dirt starts, earning a top Beyer of 45 when fifth of seven in a race last year; also has no early speed, and for a late runner like him, that means this ex-turf horses is going to be eating some dirt at the back of the pack; would be a surprise. - Byron King