Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 20, 2014

Race 1

Team Lazarus

Post 1 in sprints at the meet has yielded 14% winners; son of Elusive Quality defeated a next-out $20K winner when a flat fourth following a freshening Dec. 26; this live barn has solid numbers second-time off a layoff; use him underneath in vertical wagers.

Tony D

Registered the highest recent Beyer in this $50K seller (75) when he dropped to this price and finished second in a route Dec. 18--the sixth-place finisher subsequently graduated for $20K at Gulfstream, before ending up second vs. $25K NW2 stock; trainer is 0 for 7 with turnbacks on the inner track over the past five years; trainer/rider duo is 1 for 1 at the meet.

In the Dark

The second Cannizzo trainee in the field has been a fringe player of late; was no match for two of his current rivals when he tried this level for the first time Dec. 13, but at least he has a trip around the inner track under his girth now; on the edges.

Green Gratto

Front-runner exhibited much more stamina than usual when he weakened to second at 28-1 in his first try for this trainer Dec. 13--the winner subsequently ran third in a $50K starter, and the sixth horse returned to beat $50K maidens; wouldn't be shocked to see him make all the running in his second start off the bench.

Eight Cents

Rallied for third when he debuted in a difficult $35K tilt, which was won by a horse who came back to finish second against $20K non-winners of two foes (67 Beyer); son of Even the Score is the first foal from a half-sister to two stakes winners and a stakes-placed runner; trainer is 2 for 9 (22%) first-time off the claim in the past five years with a $1.35 ROI (both of those winners were at Finger Lakes); some things to like.

Master Jordan

Longtime maiden was along for third behind Green Gratto when he dropped to this price in his penultimate outing; Husbands, who retains the mount, placed on two of his four mounts at the meet for this barn; possible for the bottom of exotics.

Race 2

Sidearm

5th straight rail draw; hopes the extra half furlong enables him to turn the tables on Sol the Freud; since his winning career debut has rallied well in defeat for 4 minor awards; the 3-back winner repeated to make it 3-for-3 in a 100K stakes with a 95 Beyer speed figure; contender.

Bass River Road

39 days away for a 7%-winning fresh trainer; he did not handle 6F or facing winners well enough in last when defeated by Sidearm; beat the runner-up finisher in his upsetting-career debut who Beyered 67 in his next-out MSW win; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Native Hero

Sidearm turned the tables on him in last when he was making his 1st start over today's track; needs a well-timed ride to score noting his lone win was at longer than this on a wet-main track; another 39-day absentee for a low-percentage fresh trainer.

Loki's Vengeance

Projects to sit just off Sol the Freud then get 1st run on the closers; both Beyers are co-field-best speed figures; gets his 1st test with winners while being able to effectively handle fast and wet-main tracks during career which is an added bonus; beat the show runner from last who Beyered 83 in his next-out MSW win; the pick.

Sol the Freud

Is the one to catch here; lone win was at a half furlong shorter than this the final yards here are the dilemma; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 79-76 in next-out 147K-100K stakes wins; the one to catch and beat.

Bourbon Therapy

Brief speed in latest; projects to chase Sol the Freud from the gate then hopes to find the missing stamina; lone win was at today's distance on a wet-main track; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 83 in his next-out 50K-maiden-claiming win; doing the rain dance for this.

Social Rebellion

Trainer's only other blinkers-on runner since 2013 found the winner's circle; exits a career-best Beyer when rallying well at shorter posting that effort on a wet-main track; lone win was on turf and is 4-0-0-0 since; new rider is the 6th in as many races which is not a good-win angle.

Race 3

Do I Amuse You

Plenty of speed here; trouble is, that got him into a duel last time here Dec. 18 and he paid the price, fading to 5th; bad part for today is the horse he dueled with Dec. 18 (I'm Stoked) is lined up against him again and he doesn't figure to relent either, so could it be deja vu all over again?

Taxplayer

Ended up on the lead last time and faltered but making the pace doesn't figure in the cards for him today as there are a couple in here surely quicker; and that's a good thing - he's surely better on the stalk; that beign said, only 2 local starts weren't all that hot so is he just not quite the same horse when playing out of his sandbox (FL)?

So Scott

Tough ol' dude; may not be what he once was but that solid 3rd behind another back-classer (Be Bullish) here Jan. 5 says there's still gas in the tank; also, that was just his 2nd start back after almost 4 months off so he's eligible to improve, and a couple speedsters in here figure to give him the type of pace and race-shape that works best for him.

I'm Stoked

Dueled in a spot like this here Dec. 18 and gave way badly, and the guy he dueled with is on the rail again today and doesn't figure to just lie down and give this guy the lead; that being said, that Dec. 18 run was also this guy's first action in over 7 months so he may improve, and that big NY-bred N1X win at BEL last May got a 91 Beyer so he's got some oomph; trouble is, after that came the long layoff (and let's face it, you don't take a horse who's seemingly peaking, as he was, and put him away that long without good reason), and geez, could he have worked any slower at BEL Jan. 10 (5fs in 1:04.60B, slowest of 27 at that trip that day), hmmmmm?

Won Great Classic

You had to be worried about this old boy when after a nice 2nd last June 6 he was then gone almost 7 months; however, much of that worry was negated when he came back here Dec. 28, without a tag, and proved a game winner; apparently there's still plenty of gas in the tank and it's nice to see there's not another layoff; done his best work here, too (6 of his 7 wins) so his love of this place helps, as does his versatility which gives his rider options.

Special Selection

Tough to be too enthused; last 3 weren't pretty at all; in his defense, that Dec. 31 run here came vs. tougher open foes; trouble is, his dull run Dec. 18 came in a spot just like this; note, too, his 2 wins came on turf and synthetic so it's not as if this is his favorite footing either.

Race 4

Winter Games

At least he got a feel of the inner surface now; dam was unraced; lone full sister to race Captivating Lass took the $100K Busanda, earned nearly $135K; back to Ortiz and he's been solid for this barn; respect.

Got the Moves

He's been hiding the moves; a double defeat when offered for sale and he's only beaten 4 horses to the wire in his career; can't boost.

Frame

The sprint last time could have set him up nicely for this and don't be shocked if he more keen to run with the blinks this time; dam was unraced; 2 of 3 siblings won; both were sprint only; all systems go.

Bred to Boss

First red flag was the extended layoff; he also has lost ground in the land in 5 of his 6 outs; backers can point to the fact there is route success in the family and one sibling banked over $200K; tough to adore after the last fiasco.

King of Broadway

Been given time to recoup from the chalk flop; he has much more speed than he just flashed in the November finale; he has some work to do to match top sibling, near $200K earner and triple route winner Character Builder; Mott has left some live runners in the Big Apple.

Distorted Dream

Respect his sharpness and his speed; cut out to run out of a dam that won over $400K but he has not cut it so far; only beaten a half in this league last year; both from this barn must be respected.

Cat Man Fu

This guy losses 40 times and fans jump on 4-1; not sure that's the way to pad the bankroll; these kind win now and again but take them on a steady diet and you will be on the outside looking in; not my kind of play.

Race 6

Lunar Surge

Last out graduate tries winners for the first time in this spot; gray will again draw the fence and maybe she gets off to a better start in this one; filly ran into some pretty good ones last year and maybe she's now turned the corner; waters get deeper but she's a big threat to repeat.

Sally's Dream

Near half million career earner is another entering this off a narrow score and now she'll step back up to the allowance ranks; while she's ran much faster on the lawn she is a multiple inner track winner and she usually fires a big shot; looks to be the one they'll have to beat.

Kara's Match Point

Sprinter stretches out after failing to fire off an inside trip in her return to the inner over which she broke her maiden last season; there's not a whole bunch of lick in here so expect she'll be more prominent from the bell and her pedigree suggests the added ground may be to her benefit.

Hot Rendezvous

Statebred didn't have much of an impact in the restricted stakes ranks when stretched out to 2 turns last time; filly has done most of her damage sprinting and on the lawn and though she owns a score over the local footing looks to have her work cut out for her in here.

Belle Gallantey

Goes first off the claim in this spot for a barn that excels with the move and she'll switch to a top pilot; filly is winless over the inner and she's settled for plenty of minor awards; she's been a much better sprinter but wouldn't be at all surprised if this outfit moved her up enough to get her involved in the outcome at this trip.

Madre Ditutticapi

Stretches out to try a route of ground after failing to factor to factor off a wide run in her return to the inner track; filly passed a bunch of runners after breaking poorly from the fence 2 back and the gal who beat her went on to repeat over the track; don't know how well she's going to take to this trip, though; prefer others.

Eta Carinae

Wired maidens after taking little tote support first out in the main track mud last month; filly is by a G1 Wood Memorial winner so maybe this 2 turn trip proves to be right up her alley and her lick could be prominent from the outset in here, but she spots her main rivals plenty of experience; one to consider.

Holiday's Jewel

Gives the level another shot after fading off a pace tracking trip from a wide spot in her return to the inner; her prior couple of efforts over wet tracks were better, but she hasn't run fast enough to step with some of these in some time; maybe for a minor share.

Race 7

Snake Pit

Four clear in last when hooking the freakish winner; note he won in his second career start; would not be shocked if this guy is sent along as the stablemate seems to be more of a stalker; nothing wrong with 2 for 1 action; respect.

Sliver and Onions

Gelding had to rush up after stumbling and understandably tired; place horse in the last win cashed next out in a $192K stakes at Gulfstream with a 92 Beyer; like fact he is fit enough to drill a couple of times since the last effort; anything close to a repeat of the November finale and the rest could be running for minor awards.

Balance of Power

This guy looms an astute claim; he may have just needed his 2013 closer but he put the hurt to his foes in last and note the show horse was well clear; he also has a right to grow into his skin as kin to near $850K earner Archarcharch; look out.

Speightscity

Been a long time between drinks for this runner; pushed into the stakes after the 2011 finale and he has not been able to close the deal since; runner has the 2 races to draw from now and he is proven on the strip; must pick it up.

Irsaal

Gelding does handle any kind of going so keep one eye to the sky; there seems to be enough zip in here to help promote the kick; barn continues to fire on all cylinders; can't be counted out.

Two Is to Many

Gelding won at this level at Calder; toss race two back; wrong surface; trainer puts his horses where they belong year in and year out; can't fault those that project improvement here.

Sky Blue Mongolia

Gelding won going away the last time offered for sale; would have liked to have seen some local a.m. activity; 11/25 place horse took an N1X next out with an 81 Beyer; may like it here.

Dawly

Runner was tabbed as the 4-5 chalk at Laurel Saturday in a $25K optional when drawing the rail; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 6 of 8 on the inner; this guy does settle for slices often though; show horse in last took a $12K optional next out and the winner repeated in this very league; respect.

Vinny Goodtimes

He had to take about 6 weeks off after the last win and has not been into it since; never on dirt before and that must be addressed; he has proven he can win from the clouds; things have to unfold just right.

Race 8

Eye Luv Lulu

His only loss was the debut defeat vs. the now 3-for-3 winners who posted 95-78 Beyer speed figures in next-out allowance and 100K-stakes wins; smartly stalked the speed in last 2 races and should work out an ideal trip saving ground while sitting just off Alex Inc and Hot Heir Skier; the pick.

Pax Orbis

Saved career-best Beyer for last when stalking the pace then narrowly getting up in time; 1st start anywhere but Laurel is the main issue as he makes the trip north with a few other Maryland ship-ins; 1-for-17 repeat trainer since 2013 does not add to the appeal; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 77 in his next-out optional-claiming win; the October winner repeated in a 100K stakes with a 77 Beyer.

Oliver Zip

Stakes-placed over the track when chasing a runaway wnner gamely taking the place money; sharp-debut win saw the show runner graduate next out in a LRL-40K-maiden claimer with a 58 Beyer; displayed in latest that he belongs with this class; is the one to beat.

Charleymillionaire

55 days since his PRX-field-best Beyer speed figure; today is his 1st-New York attempt for a trainer 1-for the last-31 with repeat winners; good news he is versatile winning from both on the lead or just sitting off the speed; have mixed reviews from the PRX worktab for this.

Cavu

Graduated 2nd-time out and 1st-time on AQU Inner Dirt but wish the Beyer did not regress when racing with1st blinkers; adds 1st Lasix for this so perhaps we have not seen anywhere close to his best form yet?; with just 2 career races still has plenty of upside; contender.

Hot Heir Skier

Another Maryland invader who gets the class test facing winners for the 1st time; is another runner who was able to win from sitting just off the pace but has good-gate speed; super-repeat trainer adds to the appeal; benefits if Alex Inc is scratched because that may allow him to race loose on the lead.

Alex Inc

Would have to scratch Sunday from an easier PRX-1 Mile dirt n1x allowance event where listed at 7-2 on the morning line; 51-day absence for a high-percentage fresh trainer and if races here remains at the win distance for his 1st start with winners which is often any runner's toughest assignment; won the lead but showed versatility rallying well 2-back; the debut runner-up graduated next out in a DEL-MSW with a 56 Beyer; off latest is the one to catch if in.

Otoy

Front wraps came in for last pair losing by 33 lengths combined; adds blinkers for just the 2nd dirt start of career and is ranked as an outsider off the recent form; his AQU-Inner Dirt unveiling comes back as a career-low Beyer; a tough call.

Race 9

Television Too

Although off the board in the last effort, he lost a ton of ground in that slow-paced affair; should be more of a threat from this coveted post and will be generous odds once again; worth some follow-up if inside path has dominated.

Johnny Star

No firepower shown thus far so he continues his descent and adds blinkers; the gelding's sire won 2 of 18 attempts and 97K while the dam won 3 of 15 and 61K; among the winning siblings is 31K earner Soup to Go.

Pass the Coffee

Steady breeze pattern for this son of War Pass who scored in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile en route to banking 1.58 million (his offspring have scored in 8 of 55 debuts); the dam was without a victory in 5 attempts; winning siblings include 41K earner Cowgirl Magic.

Shylock

Did not fare well on the stretchout 11 days ago even with the equipment change; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.29 million while the dam scored in 2 of 10 appearances earning 45K; sib to 377K bankroller Lucky Gamble.

Grace's Honor

This colt was sired by G3 victor Double Honor who netted 251K and whose descendants have won 36 out of 430 debuts; the dam was zero for 11 lifetime; there are no winning siblings to mention; shows only a modest breeze pattern over this surface.

Brilliant Einstein

Sired by the brilliant Einstein who won multiple G1s and 2.94 million (his progeny are 3 for 12 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 4 of 42 and 119K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; similar works to the previous Persaud runner.

Gabriel's Flame

Raced evenly until the stretch in his inner dirt debut earlier this month; moving off the fence should help somewhat as should the addition of blinkers; switches to new journeyman Franco and can be within striking range at this reduced level.

Cuckoo House

Out of his league 10 days ago when facing winners; returns to the proper setting and turned in a fair rally 2 back against similar stock as today's; there does not appear to be much early speed in this event, however, which may compromise his chances.