Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 19, 2014

Race 1

Moments Notiz

Draws the fence in a field with several speed types while in search of his third straight score; win machine has been quite good since shipping here and he's got sharp tactical foot which should allow him to sit a nice trip down inside behind the speed here; spots them all weight, but he loves this trip; they'll have him to beat.

Doubledown Again

Makes his first start for a new outfit while making his local debut in this spot; gray was not very good at Hawthorne as the year wound down and it's been a while since he's run a number that would fit with the best these have to offer; siding with others.

Love to the Max

Ten year old makes his first start of the year in his initial inner track spin after earning his best Beyer in some time off 11 months on the shelf; he should be tighter with that effort behind him and he does have plenty of early foot so he figures to be in the thick of this heat from the outset; consider.

Shankopotamus

Overcame a troubled start and pace pressure to defeat cheaper in his return to the inner and now he'll catch a quicker bunch first time off the claim by an outfit that doesn't do so well with this type; his game is speed so expect they'll try to get him involved from the bell, but if he mixes it up with some of these early he could find himself reaching with little left in the tank late; don't think he'll prove a big threat as the wire approaches.

Bellamy

Statebred wasn't able to get to a pretty good one when runner up over the track a couple of weeks back; gelding does enter this on the improve figurewise and he should get plenty of pace to run at, but he'll also have less ground to negotiate in this spot.

Pleaseandthankyou

Six year old makes his first start in 9 months with a series of steady breezes on his tab for a solid return barn; he ran off 3 straight in sharp fashion over the inner last season before running into stamina issues once taken by this outfit; he remains a .500 career hitter locally and his speed should be on display early, but he'll have to prove he can still finish.

Quick Money

Held third money by a wide margin at this level in his return to the inner track but the guy who beat him handily in that one shows up in this spot as well; 7 year old will get a solid clip in front of him in this spot and maybe that helps him make up for the tactical edge his rail drawn rival owns over him; expect he'll prove to be the one to fear in the lane at this shorter trip.

Head Heart Hoof

Eight year old draws outside while returning to a protected spot after tiring from his pace efforts with claimers last week; he hasn't returned from the layoff as the runner he was at this time last year and the serious dropoff is an obvious concern, but this guy returns quickly for a top barn and he is a G3 SW over this strip

Race 2

Star Magnolia

She has flashed only brief prompting speed thus far but the latest track breeze shows much improvement; her sire won the G1 Travers and 2.53 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 262K earner Morner; hard to decipher.

Jen's Miracle

Offspring of Indygo Shiner, a G3 winner who notched 444K, are 6 percent winners in their first attempt; the dam won 4 of 27 and 162K; there are no winning siblings to mention; recent workout activity is fair.

Wild Faith

This filly hails from G3 winner Denis of Cork who amassed 613K and whose progeny have won 1 of 7 debuts; the dam involved never raced and this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate.

Optimistic Cat

Never got involved first time out while a big price but returns with Lasix and drops a peg; her sire won 5 of 22 and 370K; the dam won 1 of 4 and 26K; among the winning sibs is 51K earner Hidalgo's Legacy; trainer/jockey combo scored with a bomb recently.

Sugeily

Among the missing in her unveiling 10 days ago; her sire won his only start and 25K; the mom won 3 of 25 and 155K; winning siblings include 21K earner Desert Stone; cannot be endorsed until some enthusiasm is shown.

Golden Annie

That was a fine try at Keeneland 2 back when losing by a diminishing length; local debut showed the flashing of some early zip and perhaps she can be a late force on this turnback; noteworthy a.m. drill on 12/27.

Paris Sunshine

Scheduled to add blinkers after showing sudden speed on the stretchout at Turfway; her sire won the G1 Haskell and 1.08 million; the dam won 3 of 12 and 74K; winning siblings include 321K earner The Last Wave.

Race 3

Erik the Red

Overcame a troubled break to rally for second behind the unbeaten monster Mean Season in his second N1X attempt Dec. 22, when he earned his second Beyer in the low 80s; second-leading rider Jose Ortiz retains the mount and is 1 for 3 at the meet for Rice; should be along to pick up some of the pieces, at the very least.

Much Stronger

Front-runner is the lone speed on paper, and that coupled with his successful connections should make him an underlay; Cohen and Jacobson combined for another chalky winner when Foxbeau took Thursday's opener; must be caught.

Mulheb

5yo had lots of breaks during his disappointing 2012 season, and is returning from a layoff of more than a year; the sizzling McLaughlin barn has fared okay with long-term comebackers, and when using top jock Irad Ortiz; half-brother to G1 Ky Oaks winner Secret Status may need one or two to get back into the swing of things.

Start Jumping

The second Jacobson entrant is a closer who complements the style of his speedy stablemate nicely; son of Jump Start hasn't missed the board in seven starts since he was claimed for a bargain $20K at Saratoga, and Velasquez was aboard for one of his triumphs; should be along for another high placing if he stays in the zone.

Make Your Move

Failed to threaten when he came off the sidelines Dec. 14 for new trainer Rice, who's 0 for 10 when adding blinkers second-time off a layoff in the past five years; Linda's niece, Taylor, has a win and four seconds from nine mounts when they've teamed up at the meet; six furlongs is shorter than this son of Bernardini prefers, which makes him hard to take seriously today.

Gombey Dancer

Hasn't seen action since Saratoga, when he ran hot and cold in a pair of allowances; his overall form is better if you ignore his two wet-track excursions, and he's fired while fresh on several occasions; a viable prospect for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Race 4

Warning Trackpower

Candy Ride about 13% with debuters in a 393-runner sample; sire didn't race at 2, was unbeaten in 6 outs, took G1 Pacific Classic, banked $750K; 2 for 20 dam earned nearly $85K; all 4 siblings won; 3 won at 2 including a debut winner; top earner Powhatan County was Grade 3 placed, earned over $180K; she seems comfortable with the strip.

Brown Mellisa

Miss has yet to really raise a gallop; dam 0 for 5; 3 of 6 siblings won; 2 won at 2 including debut winner, Group 3 placed near $175K earner Rosencrans; not sold on chances.

Flaring

Decent try in the mud, toss race two back when overmatched; stakes placed 2 for 16 dam earned $50K, was turf only; lone half sis to race was just one for 13; she is looking at more zip this time but this appears to be her level.

Colonel Juanita

Lack of speed a legit concern; dam was unraced; lone half sis to race Silent Sister took 4 of 20, banked nearly $50K; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Night Time Slipper

Mass bred has been an ice cube on the tote; SP 11 for 33 dam earned nearly $250K; this is her first to race; may need even softer to shine.

Princesa de Papi

Birdstone about 8% with debuters in a 236-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, disappointed many when shocking Smarty Jones in the Belmont; G3 placed 3 for 10 dam earned over $100K; both siblings won once including G2 placed over $200K earner Morgan's Guerrilla; love the spacing of these drills.

D' Kennesaw Cat

Miss has more speed than she just flashed and the race over the strip can't hurt; place horse in Philly graduated next out in a MSW, was 2nd beaten nearly 4 in a $75K stakes at Penn National; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; expect much better effort.

Tizarocket

Had to gun from the rail last time but the race on the surface has to help along with the huge drop; there are a couple of winners in the tree, none were special; Morales got a chance to figure her out; respect.

Race 6

Gold Potion

Twice a beaten-betting favorite her 1st race off the claim was not a good sign and a dull effort; drops back into a maiden claimer while racing back in just 7 days; the short-return angle is a high-percentage angle for the trainer; will save ground then make one run trying to bounce back to best.

Explosive Smile

Claimed off the career-debut defeat where she was screaming out for more distance than 6F but remains at three-quarters of a mile; purchasing runners off high-win percentage trainers is not a good-win angle; right back in 9 days later noting some runners move forward strongly 2nd-time out.

You Take the Cake

Posted her best Beyer since July in latest when rallying boldly on a wet-main track; main knock is in recent races she has landed behind similar rivals while likely will to have to negotiate around the whole field after breaking midpack; off latest is doing a rain dance for this.

Countess Twice

Drops into a maiden claimer for the 1st time seeking answers off 2 double-digit length defeats; the 4th and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 56-46 in next-out AQU-MSW and 16K-maiden-claiming wins; the debut winner repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 68 speed figure.

Loomin' Lori Lou

Figures to work out an ideal trip sitting right off Princessbellaoncal from the gate then getting 1st run on the closers; high-percentage long-layoff trainer adds to the appeal; debut-exacta finish represents a field-best Beyer chasing the winner who captured her next 3-OPC BEL-AQU starts with 97-86-84 speed figures; regressed 2nd-time out when favored vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 75 in her next-out BEL-MSW win; scary if ready; the pick.

Pleasant Shaker

Sire is 31-for-224 with debut runners; is out of a 1-for-9 dam (68K) who's only other foal to race Victory Island (4-for-11, 120K); the trainer's only debut runner since 2013 was a winner for a barn who won just 3 races last year; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Sensual Nite

Sire is 2-for-31 with debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 58K-earner Russian Alley (1-for-12); has outworked the other 1ster Pleasant Shaker a few times but her trainer is winless with his last-11 debut runners.

Dance I Can

New trainer re-claimed this one; he is 0-for the last-14 first off the purchase; has been knocking on the door for a win picture in first pair; figures to sit just off Princessbellaoncal from the gate then hopes to outkick Loomin' Lori Lou as they both expect to get a similar trip; seems the one to beat.

Princessbellaoncal

Raced on the lead in 4 of her last 7 races and figures to be a major-pace presence here; cutting back to 6F in last did not help the form out as she faded badly on a wet track vs. quicker; hopes a fast track and back in a maiden claimer will help; know her early but unsure about late.

Race 7

Starship Captain

Ran ok late to get third money against cheaper in his first start over the inner track; he hasn't shown much early foot of late and that's not going to help him from this inside draw; have to limit his use to underneath in exotics here.

Tummel

Goes first off the claim for a barn that hasn't done so well with this type of late; 5 year old did show some speed last time and should again be prominent early with the move inside but he hasn't been on his game for a while now and will need to show up with a lot more than he has of late to have a say in the outcome.

Discreet Glen

First part of the entry makes his local debut after failing to hold on again when in with limited winners last time; while he's quick early he'll be facing a much tougher bunch in this spot and doesn't figure to prove a factor late against these; passing.

Chasing Moonlight

Earned a big number when second against open claimers here a couple of weeks back; 6 year old isn't the most consistent sort and he doesn't win too often, but he should get an honest clip to run into here and looms a big threat in the lane; contender.

Lion Keen

Lightly raced colt got the job done in style while trying dirt for the initial time here last month; colt turns back to sprint in this protected spot while making his first start off the new outfit's claim and that should provide him with a little extra kick in the lane; consider.

Denzel

Goes first off the claim for an outfit that excels with this type and he'll show up in a spot where he can't be taken from them; a top pilot will get aboard a colt who has shown a nice late kick when right; if some of these show up with their best he'll need to move forward, but that's not out of the question.

Sneaky Freud

New York bred wasn't beaten much in his return to the inner last month and now he'll get off the fence; he'll switch to a solid journeyman pilot for this and did beat softer on the main track 2 back, but this bunch may prove to be a little strong for him right now.

Sir Newcastle

Other half of the barn's coupling ships in from Parx where he earned a handful of minor awards late last year; 5 year old does often get in the mix but he hasn't run nearly as fast as most of these and doesn't play out as a serious threat.

Cast a Doubt

Field's highest last out Beyer earner returns from a short break to make his first start on the East coast today; gelding owns some solid numbers on synthetic footing and he did show that he is quite capable of handling dirt; on the circuit change, he might just prove to be better than these; one to beat.

Market Blaster

Ran ok despite trouble in the conditioned claiming ranks over the track on New Year's Eve; gelding ran pretty well in his prior couple of starts on the main track and he will get some pace to run at here; these are better than he's been facing, but the price figures to be right.

Race 8

Moneyinyour Pocket

Decent run in the inner strip opener, note show horse in last was well clear; 10/19 place horse cashed next out in a $100K stakes here with a 92 Beyer; gelding has to prove he can win on this circuit as all of his victories have been at Finger Lakes; snappy move last Monday is a positive sign; another slice?

Zivo

Since he can back from the freshening in June of 2012, he has been very consistent; like fact he broke through on the surface last time, show horse was 3 clear and there seems to be enough speed in here to help produce the kick; nearly 4 clear in the tough beat 2 back; respect.

Modern Child

Half of his wins have been here and he handles any kind of going; he does come off his career Beyer and it may be tough to improve of a peak performance; pushed along two back, but he is probably best served in stalk and rally mode; wraps added in last, basically out to prove the 18-1 shocker in last was no fluke.

This Hard Land

Over 3 times as many slices as wins makes him a tough one to even thing about singling on top only; in the money in 10 of 13 on the inner, but he settles for slices too often kind of like a football team that is bad in the red zone; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Awesome Vision

Out to make amends after taking the overland route; repeatedly proven in these kind of stakes, he obviously loves this layout and at least he kept legs moving with the drill on the 10th; the hotter the pace the better for this guy.

Saratoga Snacks

All this guy does is put on the work boots, punch the clock and run hard; connections thought enough of him to give him a shot in the Cigar but he stumbled early, lost all chances and was just overmatched to boot; checked in the small field three back; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Comandante

Velasquez got a chance to figure him out in last and could see this runner getting an ideal trip; he may be able to sit second just off the speed with first run on any of those that have designs on closing from left field; peaking right now, like the way he extended late in last; 4-peat well within the realm.

Race 9

Storied Lady

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire was a Grade 2-stakes winner at 9F on dirt; dam's lone win was at 9F on turf but went 0-for-3 in dirt routes; she has been screaming out for more distance in both sprint losses and gets it here; saves ground then makes one run.

Fire Ship

Hoping 2nd time off the 65-day absence will produce a better effort than when no match for It's Easy over the track; latest was a good-Beyer speed figure improvement but has had issues breaking well from the gate and would need a better start to turn the tables; others appeal more.

Maybry's Fortune

Has not raced past 7F yet; sire was 0-for-4 in races at 1 Mile or longer two on dirt and two on turf; dam went 0-for-1 in her only dirt route; was no match for Lady Luciano in latest as they both step up in class off losses; wish she showed more stamina in latest defeats.

Peach Lake

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire went 0-for-8 in dirt routes; dam went 0-for-2 in dirt routes; did not handle a wet track 6 weeks ago when outrun throughout while today gets in with her-lightest weight assignment ever; the 2-back show runner Beyered 57 in her next-out BEL-MSW victory.

Jcs American Dream

Saved best for last; a good sign because the career-best Beyer was posted on today's AQU Inner Dirt oval; main knock is that she's finished behind similar rivals in last 2 defeats; clearly It's Easy is the major danger with more than 6 lengths to make up on that one.

It's Easy

2nd-time Long is often an improvement angle; set the pace in latest and has every chance to take these all the way cutting back in distance adds to the appeal; wish her 2nd-time out Beyer speed figure did not regress but she figures to be a major player from bell to finish today also showing in her debut she could rally from just off the pace; the pick.

Touching My Toes

Sharp-2nd time out improvement when racing on a wet-main track for the 1st time with 1st Lasix; the main issue is if she can fire just as well on a dry-fast oval with 6 weeks between starts while latest-good race was with 23 days between races; if repeats latest is the one to beat.

La Dama de Hierro

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire won both races in dirt routes including a winning-career debut race at 9F; dam went 0-for-3 in dirt routes; adds blinkers trying to shake up the form while adding 7 pounds after getting weight breaks in first pair; would be a surprise.

Truericepudding

Has not raced past 5.5F yet; sire won the Kentucky Derby; dam went 1-for-4 in dirt routes breaking her maiden at 8.3F on a wet AQU-Inner Dirt track; she ran to the 37-1 debut odds but the even-running line suggests she wants to go long and gets her chance today; gets a weight break off the 51-day absence for a high-percentage 2nd-start trainer.

Lady Luciano

Sire is a G1-SW at 10F on dirt; dam did not race past 7F; up-and-down form during career; 2-back is a field-best Beyer speed figure while 3-back is a career-low speed figure; which filly shows up for this?; leaps up in class off a dull effort when blinkers woke her up; the 3-back winner and show finishers Beyered 64-51 in next-out AQU-OPC and 25K-maiden-claiming wins; contender.

Bay Dawn

Outsider defeated 2 runners combined in 2 defeats; has not raced past 6F yet; sire was a G3-SW at 1 Mile on dirt; dam won going long on turf but did not compete in a dirt route during career; would be a complete shocker.