Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 18, 2014

Race 1

Photon

Cutting back in distance does not help the cause as both 2013 wins were at longer-stamina tests; snapped nearly a year-long losing streak in last when rallying strongly on a wet-main track; most-recent win rider takes Frazil for this; the 2-back winner made it 4 in a row with a next-out 99 Beyer speed figure captuting an AQU-optional-claimer; saves ground then makes one run; hard to leave out of the exotics conversation.

Reserved Quality

Claimed off an easy victory when defeating lesser sprinting; stretching out to 1 Mile is the major issue; the new trainer pops 26% winners 1st off the purchase since 2013 so an improvement is expected; latest snapped a long-losing skid and has not been at his best in prior Mile starts; the 3-back show runner Beyered 93 in his next-out SAR-25K-claiming victory.

Frazil

Reunites with the rider from his 106 field-best Beyer which was posted April, 2011, on the AQU Main winning a starter handicap at 6.5F; beat 1 runner home the last time sent 1 Mile and his lone win since 2012 was via DQ; ended the year with 2 good-exacta finishes in defeat; currently seems best at shorter than 1Mile.

Metaurus

Has not won past 6.5F yet which was the distance for his last victory June, 2012, on BEL dirt capturing a 14K claimer stalking the pace; wanted no parts of a wet track and route racing in latest when crushed by Photon who follows him here; would be a shocker.

I Want You to Know

Claimed from consecutive starts; the new trainer yields just 9% winners 1st off the purchase since 2013; latest fade 59 days ago looks better since the show finisher Beyered 82 in his next-out AQU-20K-claiming victory; 6-0-0-1 record since winning twice at today's distance in Maryland; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Peasant

Today marks his 1st start ever in New York during career; had to love his 1st race off the claim a blowout victory while posting a career-best Beyer; eyes up 4 in a row noting the 3-back key-race score defeating the runner-up and show finishers they Beyered 84-75 in next-out LRL-50K stakes and 12K-claiming wins; seems the one to beat.

Bear's Future

Lone issue is today is his 1st start racing anywhere else but WO or PRX; projects to race on or near the lead with Coach A J; another who posted a new Beyer-career best when making his 1st start for a new trainer in last; he's won his last 2 dirt starts going long; posted latest huge effort despite a troubled trip; try to catch the pick.

Tycoon Cat

Snapped an 0-for-10 wet-main track and 0-for-16 AQU-Inner Dirt losing streak by crushing a NY-bred field in latest with a new Beyer Top attached; tests much-tougher open company today; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-$12,500 claimer with a 71 Beyer; obviously asking a lot to win back-to-back races on the class raise.

Divine Child

Last time over the AQU Inner Dirt was March's 20K-claiming show finish; picture here was back in January, 2012, scoring in a 6F race on today's oval for a $7,500-claiming price tag; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 81 in his next-out PRX-OPC win; 3-back victory was impressive as he beat the show runner who Beyered 90-87 in next-out DEL-50K and BEL-100K stakes wins.

Coach A. J.

Figures to race on or near the lead likely having to fend off Bear's Future early then the closers in deep stretch; was no match for Photon in latest although cutting back in distance here is a plus; expected more in latest as his career-best Beyer was on a wet-main track but did not respond in the mud in latest.

Herbal Prospector

2-for-2 in AQU-Inner Dirt routes; the latest snapped a winless-wet track streak; back in one week or less is a high-win percentage angle for his trainer; has not done much wrong since the barn change and freshening in October; horse for the course will likely need to up his recent Beyers to a brand new level to make it 3 in a row.

Ricky Tick

Exits his lowest speed figure since the fall while in with some tougher customers today; like many of these today marks his 1st start in New York; 8-4-2-1 record since the August claim; big grey closer's neck loss 3 races ago looks better since the winner Beyered 93 in his next-out PRX-starter alw. event. - Art Gropper

Race 2

Truly Mizzed

Offered some promise in the first out turf placing at Belmont but she hasn't done much in 2 subsequent tries including most recent on the local main track; she's the first foal to race out of a limited sprint winning dam and her interim drills don't suggest a big move forward will be on tap on the stretchout, though she does benefit from an advantageous draw.

Candy Portena

She's another exiting a weak try in her initial dirt spin in which she was equipped with blinkers for the first time; she'll shed some weight with the double bug named and maybe that helps, but she'll need to improve several lengths to get in the mix here.

U. S. S. O'Brien

Filly has hit the board in each of her 3 one turn starts and now she'll stretch out for a barn that is having a nice stand thus far; dam dropped 2 winners, neither of whom scored going long on the main track, but the sire's side of her pedigree suggests the new configuration could move her up; with sharp tactical foot she looms the one they'll have to beat.

Suzy Blue Light

Makes her debut for an outfit that hasn't done great work with newcomers of late but they are certainly capable of firing right out of the box; sire gets 14% debut winners from his offspring and the dam was a multiple GSW who banked over a million and won 16 total races including 6 routes; her lone sib to race was winless from 6 starts; it's not easy to win going long first out and she does look to face a decent bunch, but her most recent local breeze wasn't bad.

Palestrina

Filly exits her first 2 turn dirt spin and she did offer a little bit of late run in that one, though she was no match for the runner up who returns here as well; filly does enter this on the improve but she doesn't have much early foot and her returning pilot no longer receives a weight concession.

Island Candy

Got going too late from a wide spot in her Laurel slop debut last month and now she'll stretchout to 2 turns; her lone sib to race was winless from 9 spins, 4 of which came going long and the barn's recent numbers on the move to routing aren't much; prefer to side with others.

Fade to Black

Runner up in each of her 2 starts blew the lead she made from the inside slot when stretched out to 2 turns for the first time in her second career spin last month; she'll move to the outside draw here and may have to be used a little harder, but she's lightly raced and certainly has a right to improve second time going long; speedy contender. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Bit Bustin

Last race Beyer is competitive with others; she seemed to appreciate the cutback in distance and ran a career-best Beyer; stuck on the rail, she is in a send position; but note how often this miss breaks well; that should enable her to be sitting 1-2 early.

Dee Dee's Comet

Came away last of six in her most-recent start, which might have cost her a top-3 finish; needs to make up ground on Jitney, who finished 1 1/4 lengths in front of her last time out; only won a first-level allowance by a head two back; prefer others.

Jitney

This one has been stuck in the N2X ranks for a while; she seems to continually settle for minor awards, whether she is running on turf or dirt; last out she outkicked Dee Dee's Comet - one of today's rivals - finishing 1 1/4 lengths in front of her; erratic figurewise but capable of running Beyers in the 80s on occasion.

Pennymine

Disappointed with a fourth of six at 2-1 odds last out, but that was a reasonably quick race over what was a tiring track; even with that fourth, she ran the top last-race Beyer and finished in front of Uncle Southern in the process; previous starts in November where even better; a winner on the inner track last year; choice.

Uncle Southern

Broke well last time and stayed up with Pennymine for a while before that one gradually moved ahead; this one was only 1 1/4 lengths behind her at the finish; may have needed that start after being away since September; two wins have come on the lead, but Bit Bustin on the rail figures to be sent and Pennymine has tactical speed too.

Make the Moment

Has a good record (3 for 12) for a horse with no early speed; consistent figurewise - with five straight Beyers in the 69-70 range; potentially disadvantaged by a layoff going back to October; ran fourth the last time she returned from a layoff. - Byron King

Race 4

Mineral Water

Finished well to be a clear-cut second in his inner dirt debut and both of the races he exits were above average in quality; his sire won a G1 and 1.13 million; the dam was without a tally in 5 attempts; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Police Camp

No known excuse to that first trouncing; his sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; the dam went 3 for 20 earning 108K; winning siblings include 145K earner I'll Stake U; decent training track blowout 5 days ago.

Latigo Trail

Got into gear too late in his maiden voyage last month; his sire won 1 of 12 and 44K; the mom won 5 of 23 and 68K; among the winning siblings is 35K earner Mr. Lit; should appreciate today's extension in distance.

Toohottoevenspeak

Earned a minor award after breaking slowly in his debut; the sire won his only race and 25K; the dam went 3 for 19 lifetime earning 79K; among the winning sibs is 41K earner Im a Rockstar.

Gino and the Jets

Even effort in that November getaway race; has not come close, pace-wise, to his initial try at Saratoga where he was part of an early battle; switches to apprentice handling here and can awaken at a healthy price.

Ride of Your Life

Beginner was sired by the undefeated Candy Ride who won multiple G1s and 749K (his progeny have scored in 51 out of 393 debuts); the dam, a G3 winner, notched 272K; winning sibs include 70K earner Unabashed Charm.

Pax in Terra

While no match for the winner in that second attempt, the grey got away much more alertly in that try (note the big gaps among the first 3 finishers); his sire won a G1 and 554K; the dam won 3 of 14 and 49K; sib to 334K earner Great Gracie Dane.

Thunderin Saratoga

Offspring of Eddington, a G1 winner who captured 1.21 million, have scored in 11 percent of their first races; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 210K earner Lady Vi; shows an average work tab for the most part.

Woke Up Tired

Two fair efforts up to now but he tries 2 turns for the first time; his sire won multiple G1s on the NYRA circuit; the dam went 3 for 9 earning 209K; among the winning siblings is 58K earner Kettle River.

Harbor King

Clearly beaten by Pax in Terra last time out but he returns with Lasix; draws a miserable post though and may be dependent today on a much swifter early pace in order to have any realistic chance.

Winnitude

Far back in both attempts although he did have a legit excuse in that first defeat; see Police Camp, above, for information about the same sire; the dam never raced; among the winning sibs is 138K earner Northern Berkshire; pass for now.

All Over Me

Hard to evaluate off one performance especially since he had to deal with outermost post; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; the dam won 9 of 36 and 174K; among the winning siblings is 89K winner Leawood Teel.

Alex El Guapo

Upgraded in his second try when showing much more in the way of prompting ability; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.76 million; the dam went 3 for 13 earning 119K; winning siblings include 92K earner I Dreamt I Was.

Born in Brooklyn

Did not fire first time out but the muddy surface might have been a factor; his sire won a G3 and 444K while the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 200K earner Dreaming of Cara; needs much luck to get to the starting gate today. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Ambassador Bridge

Can't be thrilled with the local slate; lack of speed can make him his own worst enemy at times; he basically just got good for about a month last year; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Billy the Bull

Fried in a duel in the last race and it's never easy to beat winners right back; show horse in last took a $5K claimer at DEL next out and the 12th finisher took an N2L allowance at FL; in good hands, this rider has had good success for this outfit; respect.

Between the Lines

Bothered at the break to kick off his career; he got a nice stalk and pounce trip in last and could be looking at a similar journey here; drill last Tuesday suggests he is feeling pretty good about himself; slight improvement and he will be in the mix.

Here Comes Tommy

Nice try on the cut back in the November finale but he really didn't threaten the winner; considering the shorter trip here, he could be left with a ton of work to do late; would think long and hard before taking too short a number.

Ed's Magic

Toss the Belmont races and the form brightens; he ran every step of the way in last, just could not close the deal; he was tons best of the rest; he seems to have turned the corner at this point; rates long look in all the slots.

Adjournment

Mirror races in last pair and neither was pretty; 3 times as many slices as wins makes him a tough on top only ticket; not really close in either effort on the inner; he goes have sneaky speed; might at least be able to muddle the pace.

Western Tryst

At least he got a feel of the strip; 4th finisher in last took a $12.5K N2L and the winner repeated in a $20K optional; if you figure he just needed the last, you can build a case for a move forward; don't ignore.

Raglin River

Game in the win three back but has gone the dreaded other way of late; fit enough to drill several times since the last effort and he was more involved in the move on Monday; barn has been on a roll and this guy did bobble in last; could run much better here.

Marriedtothemusic

Love fact he won the debut and cashed off the pine last June; 3rd and 4th finishers in last took $14K optionals next out and the winner was 2nd a nose in a $25K optional; colt has trained solidly for this, he towers over these in the Beyer department; primed.

Acigarisjustacigar

Youngster woke up a bit once he got off the grass; educated in the Big A debut, tough beat when dueled two back and like the way he quickened to open up 3 and hold on in last; would still lean toward watching one vs. winners.

The Brothers Rap

Took the biggest drop in the game when posting the lone win; and it was a smallish field; after a decent try in first vs. winners, he has regressed now twice; at least he beat better than half the field home; not sold on chances. - Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Make Your Point

Offspring of Not for Love, who won 6 of 29 and 178K, have scored in 98 out of 707 debuts; the dam went 2 for 15 earning 57K; there are no winning siblings to mention; shows only a modest workout regimen.

Official

Sired by G1 victor Officer who banked 804K and whose progeny have won 14 percent of their first races; the dam won 4 of 14 and 83K; among the winning siblings is 82K bankroller Jersey Shore Girl.

See Me Sometime

Claimed out of that first run where she did not have a smooth beginning; her sire won 1 of 6 and 75K while the dam won 2 of 22 attempts and 71K; there are no winning siblings to mention; note that fine gate breeze on 12/29.

Very Accomplished

She hails from multiple G1 victor Borrego who notched 2.05 million (his descendants have won 5 of 103 initial races); the dam won 2 of 8 and 97K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; high percentage trainer/owner to consider.

Rumble Doll

Her sire won 831K including G1 success; offspring of Street Boss have done well first time out winning at a rate of 20 percent; the mom won 3 of 23 and 190K; among the winning siblings is 10K earner Little Afleet.

Bossy Boots

The most recent training track drill was an upgrade; see the previous runner for information and stats regarding the same sire; this filly's dam never competed and this is her sole foal to make it to the races.

Goldstandardlady

Quit early in her only attempt over the main track; her sire won a G2 and 662K while the dam won 5 of 20 and 120K; among the winning siblings is 147K earner Cardiac Rehab; recent workout activity is average.

Saratoga Shoes

New face in this crowd was sired by G3 type Noonmark who garnered 354K (his progeny are 2 for 13 as far as winning their first attempt); the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 361K earner Bwana Babe.

Marriedtomichael

The trainer has scored with several firsters at generous odds; this filly was sired by 452K winner Patriot Act whose descendants are 3 for 48 in debut victories; the dam won 3 of 7 and 53K; sib to 120K earner One Or the Other.

Marketable Miss

See Saratoga Shoes, above, for same sire info; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning siblings is 114K earner Destiny's Song; interesting item despite this wide post because of the sharp a.m. move only 5 days ago.

Happy Recap

Showed respectable early speed in her maiden voyage before tiring in the last half-furlong; her sire won the Derby and 3.61 million; the dam went 2 for 6 earning 49K; winning siblings include local performer Meese Rocks who banked 443K. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

B Shanny

He had a fine 2013 while winning three of eight starts for $150,000 and he was last seen in a very tough spot in the G3 Fall Highweight; runner up from that race returned to win next out here on 12/21 going 6f in a 98k stakes with a 110 Beyer; he's a threat against these if he feels up to one of his better performances.

Malachite

He's displayed solid form through his first five starts but he's meeting up with a very tough group of sprinters today and he's yet to show that he has the ability to be competitive against the likes of these; runner up from latest won next out here on 12/8 going 1m vs. 50k OPC's with an 88 Beyer.

Tenango

Multiple stakes placed gelding is capable of putting together a pretty nice performance on his best day and he goes out for a barn and rider that win a lot of races together; however, he's probably going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot.

Mean Season

Twice raced 4-year-old has a ceiling that is unknown after a couple of very sharp performances to begin his career, and after earning a 105 Beyer Speed Figure at second asking, the co-top figure in this field, he recorded a best of 112 four-furlong workout over the Belmont Park training track on January 5 in preparation for this.

Isthmus

He hasn't been at his best since being returned from a long layoff four starts ago and it seems like a lot to ask of this stakes placed veteran to be able to compete against a tough field like this; looking toward others.

Retreive

He's run very well in two of his last four starts, but he looks like a need-the-lead type, and this is an extremely tough bunch for him to be meeting up with, especially after a long layoff; winner from latest won next out at Sar on 7/28 going 6 1/2f in a G2 with a 102 Beyer.

Kingsford Drive

Maybe if he can reproduce the effort he showed up with three starts back he can have a say in the outcome, but that level of performance has not been the norm for him, and he can't afford anything less against these; third place finisher from latest won next out at Crc on 1/5 going 5 1/2f vs. 10k OPC's with a 91 Beyer.

Sam Sparkle

Stakes winning veteran can show up with a sharp run on his best day, but this spot is probably a little bit too tough for him, and his only win in his last 16 starts going back through 2012 was against 35-25k claimers.

Be Bullish

One of two signed on in here for the Jacobson barn and this 14-time winner carries multiple stakes winning credentials with him, and he made it look pretty easy in his first start back in this barn in his latest outing; Lopez has won with 4 of 6 mounts for this outfit at the current meeting.

Luckysdream

He was last seen earning a 103 Beyer Speed Figure in a dominate winning performance, but he's needed time off since that run, and it might be a negative to see that his connections are sending him out with a 50k tag attached.

Regulus

His career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over a synthetic surface in a route event and he's going to need to show up with a career best effort to get the better of this field; prefer to look in another direction. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Long River

Returns to the strip of his maiden score in search of his third straight win; improving 4 year old exits 3 straight strong one turn tries but does draw well for the stretchout and he's handy enough to secure a good trip from the outset in here; catches a tough bunch, but looks to be a huge danger.

Percussion

Hood goes on this 6 year old who was used in pace in his return to the inner track; he draws inside again and maybe the new equipment helps him get more focused early; his speed does figure to again make him prominent, but he'll need to overcome his recent stamina issues in order to have a say in the outcome.

Saratoga Snacks

New York bred finished out of the money for the first time in his 11 race career when in against an ultra tough bunch in the G1 Cigar 7 weeks back; he is an inner track restricted SW and has run well going long, but he's probably better at one turn routes; barn has done a great job managing his well documented chronic foot issues and this 5 year old has fired fresh in the past.

In the Beat

Gelding takes a big step up the class ladder to face stakes rivals in this heat; sprinter does figure to be prominent early, but the trip is beyond his scope and he hasn't run close to fast enough at his preferred sprint trip to have any impact late with these; looms a long price.

Don Dulce

This guy's been pretty consistent on the Beyer scale since shipping to this circuit early last summer and he's been right there with stakes runners in each of his last 3 route starts; new barn looks to really agree with him and maybe the slightly shorter trip plays to his benefit; he's one to consider.

Jonesy Boy

Lightly raced 5 year old has yet to finish out of the exacta in 6 career tries and he enters this off a narrow stakes victory in his first inner track spin; he enters this on the improve and though he doesn't have much early foot, pace hasn't had a serious impact on his kick; giving him the nod to make it 3 straight today.

Cease

Enters this off a huge win over cheaper in his first try over the inner strip; barn's second runner in here returns in just 3 weeks and that interim breeze was pretty slow, but he certainly has some back class to him and maybe he's just back on his best game; another threat in a competitive heat.

Cougar Ridge

Seeks his third straight score while trying the inner track for the initial time in his stateside stakes debut; gelding looked good beating that cheaper bunch on the main track last time and showed his versatility while winning on the front end 2 back in Kentucky; sharp, but he'll get a class test here. - Steve Grabowski