Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 17, 2014

Race 1

Chamois

He ran well when finishing third behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest start and he's capable of getting himself into the mix against these on his best day; he has a strong pedigree for turf and he already has a G3 stakes placing to his credit; look for him to benefit from a favorable ground saving trip after breaking from the rail post.

Notacatbutallama

He shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Joha and North Slope, and this multiple graded stakes winner was sharp in getting the job done in his only start over the Big A turf course; he hails from top connections and Castellano has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this outfit at the current stand.

Joha

He's the only G1 winner in this race and have to respect the consistently strong form he's displayed since moving into this barn; he'd like to see the early pace be slow to develop, but even if it isn't, he's shown the ability to produce a decent effort from off the pace.

Tattenham

He showed a lot of ability through his first four starts and feel that he can benefit from being given some time off after a couple of sub par performances against graded stakes competition; maybe there's something to be said for Alvarado piloting another in here, but this Juddmonte-homebred can't be taken lightly.

North Slope

Grade 3 stakes placed performer has looked very good in his two turf starts with blinkers, and he ran well in his only start over this turf course when finishing close behind today's rival Chamois; Saez has won with 16 of 48 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Make It Gold

The addition of blinkers has been a key equipment change for this colt, but this looks like a difficult step up in class for him, and he was beaten by today's rival Mills just two starts back; prefer to give the nod to others in this one.

Wind of Bosphorus

Have to respect the impact that his early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up, but he finds himself in a tough spot after being claimed for 35k from his latest start; viewing him as being an early pace factor only.

Mills

He really hasn't run a bad race to date, and even though he finished seventh in a G1 in his latest outing, he was only 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner; feel that this stakes placed gelding belongs on the long list of contenders in this event.

Vinny Goodtimes

He's proven to be a very sharp 25k claim for his current connections and really like to see what he's done in his two most recent races with Alvarado aboard; he has a chance to get overlooked in the wagering in his stakes debut and going to look for him to be putting in a serious stretch bid. - Brian Pochman

Race 2

Wraith

Was beaten a pole in her six-furlong opener, and is stretching out with the addition of Lasix; the average win distance of Horse of the Year Ghostzapper's progeny is 7.2 furlongs; dam was a sprinter, and this is her first foal; leading rider Irad Ortiz takes over on this outsider.

Miss Red Cloud

Didn't threaten the winner when she moved out to this distance Dec. 12, but managed to secure second by a neck over a rival who subsequently crushed $25K maidens with a 51 Beyer; second-leading rider Jose Ortiz retains the mount and is 3 for 10 at the meet for this live barn; the one to fear most.

Ready to Rule

Improved to second in her second trip postward in December, from which the third-place finisher exited to run hot and cold; the average win distances of the progeny of the sire (6.9 furlongs) and dam (7.2 furlongs) suggest that a middle distance will be within her range; Franco, who recently lost his bug, is 1 for 8 at the meet for Hushion.

Candy's Lady

Placed in two of her three sprints, all in maiden special company at Laurel; the average win distance of good sire Candy Ride's offspring is 6.9 furlongs; unraced dam's only foal to race was a modest sprinter; consider for the bottom of vertical wagers.

Naughty Matilda

Daughter of the popular Indian Charlie and a turf stakes winner was never in the hunt when she debuted in a six-furlong maiden special; her pedigree leans more towards speed than stamina, and her trainer is 0 for 10 with sprint/route starters since the beginning of 2013; not yet.

Alice and Trixie

Passed some tiring rivals in the mud when a distant fourth on the drop to this price third-time out Dec. 29; the average win distance of the sire's runners is 6.9 furlongs; stakes-winning dam won going short and long--none of her three starters in main track routes were victorious; Contessa hit with 9% of his first-timer routers in the past five years ($0.76 ROI). - Ron Gierkink

Race 3

Tiny Predicament

This gelding is better than his record indicates but unfortunately tends to break a beat slow and that has cost him more than one score; would move up his money chances if there is moisture on the track yet there appears to be a lack of a pronounced pace in this event; tough call therefore.

Island Sunset

He was previously trained by Jacobson and finally draws a comfortable inside slot; back-classy veteran must be respected although his last performance over this surface was dull when trounced by Winning Touch.

Suilleabhain

Tailed off at the end of the 2013 season and the returning breeze pattern is nothing special; best efforts by far have been over the turf and he cannot been endorsed until returning to that surface.

Schoolyard Dreams

A nice overlay a dozen days ago when outfinished in the final yards earning a Beyer which puts him on or near the top of the list today; because of the pace structure of the field, he may find himself much closer to the lead this afternoon; strong trifecta consideration at the very least.

Money Only

One-run type finished well in the last assignment at a loss of ground; appeared to be hampered by the inside post in the previous pair of efforts and now draws a favorable slot; can handle various types of footing and should be a late presence.

Conticinio

There is a vast difference between a muddy and a good track and this runner's efforts show it clearly; plummets off the claim today and gets in very light; still may need a wet-fast racing surface in order to perform his best; puzzling possibility.

Winning Touch

Much trouble in the latest showing when checking in a respectable third; the only multiple winner over this winter surface in the field, he should be able to stay within close range once again; should return dividends for the new barn.

Dighton

Once competed at the G3 level, this grey steadily descended to the common ranks; raced evenly in his last route attempt (an event where he had a difficult trip); exacta chances brighten if he is lucky enough to catch a wet track today.

Superiority

Commendable effort from the outermost post in his last assignment, making 2 moves in that race to capture the show; the return to 6 furlongs should help; like several of his foes, he may be compromised by the soft half-mile fraction that seems in store. - Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Canela Rose

Rallied in last like she wants more distance and gets it here; exiting sprints she could be part of the pace noting that in her career debut she broke 2nd from the gate; has not raced past 7F yet; sire won twice at 1 Mile on dirt; dam went 0-for-8 in dirt routes but her sire is a Kentucky Derby winner.

Gingee

Has never been better posting consecutive-exacta finishes; she likes to be forwardly placed; her best Beyer speed figure was accomplished over a wet-main track; figures to be close to the leaders early then hopes to have enough stamina to last the final yards; the one to beat.

See See See

121 pounds is the heaviest assignment of her career; in recent races has been upclose early dropped back then re-rallied; gets a new rider hoping to sit midpack then make one run; both-exacta finishes occurred over today's surface but must pass the class test doubling the price tag for this.

East Coast Express

Exits a career-low speed figure racing 2nd time on dirt and 1st time over a fast track; ranked a notch below these off the 2-back loss vs. similar; field-best Beyer was accomplished over a less-than-firm turf course; the 3-back show runner Beyered 40 in her next-out AQY-25K-maiden-claiming win; races midpack then makes one run.

Bebes Passion

The 6-0-0-0 AQU Inner Dirt mark and last 3 races on wet tarcks being poor does nothintg for the confidence level that she can turn the tables on See See See; made the lead over that one 2-back but in last broke 10th of 11 from the gate; which filly shows up for this?; others appeal more.

Sky Lassie

Has to geat Gingee who handled her off the 55-day absence in last when making her 1st start ever on AQU Inner Dirt; this seems like her level dropping in for this price tag for the 1st time in last then delivering a good-fresh show finish; should be set for an improved performance today off the favored loss; the 3-back winner repeated in a BEL-optional claimer with a 62 Beyer; the pick.

Tropical Trouble

Showed nothing in the 8-1 career debut for a 1-for-23 trainer since 2013 with 2nd-time maiden starters; 6F wet-track unveiling so deserves a chance on a fast oval; sire was a Grade 3-stakes winner in the USA at 1 Mile on dirt; dam's only win was her debut at 4.5F; she finished 6th and 8th in 2-dirt routes.

Fujiana

The good news is she owns her best speed figure on AQU Inner Dirt while dropping into a maiden claimer for the 1st time today which is considered to be the biggest-class drop in racing; 65 days since posting a career-low Beyer in a key race; the winner and runner-up finisher from last posted 68-65 speed figures in next-out AQU-MSW and optional-claiming wins; looms a logical contender for win honors and would be a big factor if ready. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Sunrise Lover

Sprinter draws the fence for the stretchout after failing to go with fellow statebreds in his first with winners in career start number 28; gelding was sent off at better than 50-1 in that heat and he did need the foray to Finger Lakes to get through the maiden ranks; doesn't look to fit too well in this spot and looms another long price.

Tizmas

Gives the trip and level another crack after coming up short late from a wide spot in her return from the freshening; gelding sheds some weight with the switch to a bug but hasn't won in a while and he's had his stamina issues so prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Media Kid

Wasn't a threat while trying winners for the initial time a couple of weeks back; his maiden score 2 back in his first crack over the inner was solid and maybe with the regression behind him he's set to get back on track; price will be right, but he's got a lot of improving to do off that last one.

Bedouin Now

Steps up in his first off this outfit's claim after again just missing against conditioned claimers; colt doesn't have much early foot and he's winless here but he has run well over the strip and the slightly longer trip should be to his benefit; can get in the mix for a share of this one.

Inmyfathersimage

He's been a new animal since claimed by this outfit at Belmont and really took off in his first with winners last month; field's highest last out Beyer earner tackles better in this spot, but he's had time to get over that last one and looks well spotted to make it 3 straight today.

Kiss of Thunder

Gelding's first try over the inner a few weeks back wasn't much and now he'll show up in a protected spot; while he did break his maiden impressively over a wet track in Kentucky last spring, he looks to be more enamored with the lawn; maybe for a minor share.

Bernardo

Statebred was beaten as the chalk against open company in his 2013 finale; he'll prior handful of efforts were solid and they did earn him big numbers, but note that each of those came at one turn trips; maybe he's better second time at this configuration and that would make him a big threat.

Bama Bound

Big Parx maiden winner looked rather good when stretched out to 2 turns in that one; he'll take on winners for the initial time in this spot and his numbers are a little light but his tracking style could help him overcome the outside draw and he does enter this one on the improve. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Recovered

Shows a fair first gear in comparison to her opponents and was in need of the last outing; her sire won 7 of 18 starts and 662K; the dam won 1 of 3 and 10K; among the winning siblings is 370K earner Hangingbyathread.

Hangingwithsonny

Yet to earn an exacta finish, she drops below the purchase price for the first time; the lack of early speed puts her at a distinct disadvantage here but perhaps she did not care for the wet-fast surface in the last pair; pass for now.

Keen On Green

Late foal was sired by the undefeated Bustin Stones who scored in the G1 Carter while earning 480K (his offspring have won 5 of 31 debuts); the dam won 1 of 13 and 20K; among the winning siblings is 30K earner Flag Handler.

Holly's Sister

She has shown no firepower up to now regardless of the surface involved; makes her first attempt over the inner dirt but note the trainer's win percentage last season; needs a serious wake-up call.

Miss Charlize

Trounced in her unveiling last month and the slow getaway did not help matters; her sire won the Queen's Plate and 1.04 million; the dam won 3 of 20 and 153K; sib to 207K bankroller Rosa Salvaje; generous odds assured.

Longride to Wisdom

Tries blinks for the first time after a troubled trip against better stock; she makes her initial visit to the claiming ranks, always a dangerous factor, and should be more of a threat as a result; cannot be dismissed.

Fashionation

A fine first run at the course and distance last month; her sire won the G1 Hopeful and 818K overall; the dam scored in 3 of 8 appearances and 102K; among the winning siblings is 162K earner All in With Aces.

Colleen's Angel

She tired in both races but lands into a field today without that much known early zip; her sire won 4 of 18 attempts and 191K while the dam won 1 of 22 and 15K; among the winning siblings is 184K earner Clean Jean.

Gratianus

Curious arrival was shot down in a lengthy speed duel at Delaware more than 3 months ago; the trainer is one of the top conditioners on that circuit; the filly's sire won a G1 and 2.19 million; the dam was zero for 1; sib to 28K earner Golden Greeley; consider.

Pretty Nell

Opened up quickly in her October getaway race at Suffolk before stopping in the final yards; there is a vast improvement to the latest blowout from the gate and she is another member of the field making her first try outside of the special weight class.

Stormin Mary

Very quiet up to now although she has had more than her share of bad racing luck in recent starts; still seems a bit of a reach from this difficult post position and cannot be recommended until she shows more energy.

Backyard Birdie

Could not keep up in her maiden voyage but the trainer involved has been on a roll of late; the filly's sire won multiple G1s, including the Belmont Stakes, and 1.57 million; the dam lost her only try; sib to 55K earner Summer Place to Be. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Hay Shares

Protected in last, this is the first time for sale, you would figure it to be an all out go; runner has natural speed, could flash more with the blinks; 5th finisher in last took an N1X, 6th finisher beat $12.5K claimer next out and the winner was 2nd beaten a half in a $62.5K optional; expect better effort here.

Iron Power

Connections may have just been biding time and waiting for this race; note she did graduate on the inner; Franco got a chance to figure out what s under the hood; 7th and 9th finishers in last took optional claimers next out; top last-race Beyer in the pocket; interesting.

Thor's Mjolnor

Two of his three wins have been on the strip; she still has to prove he can get this distance; he has trained steadily for this and Contessa can get them set off a long layoff; should sit a nice stalk and rally trip; contention goes long.

Crafty Dreamer

At least he got a feel of the surface; far from disgraced in the other mile effort; 11/3 winner repeated in a $125K stakes, then took the $100K Robb with another 94 Beyer; trainer spotted them just fine last year with limited starters; over 5 clear in the other mile try; must be left in the hopper.

Street Lord

The old turf to dirt move almost worked in last; miss was over 3 clear and the show horse was a similar margin ahead of nearest foe; like fact she showed a new wrinkle coming from far back; Decarlo figures to be much more comfortable here; can't fault those that project a peak performance.

Indy Tune

The sprint may set him up fine for this effort; would expect her to be much more involved early; 0 for 5 for this barn; rates upset glance.

Socialsaul

Respect hot claim box item; toss the stakes two back when just overmatched; proven in this league, nice run in the first work on the year; repeat well within the realm.

Groomedforvictory

Senior citizen must be respected; he beat optional runners here back in 2012 and he has trained forwardly for this; far from disgraced in the Shipman in July; note 8 of his 10 wins came at this trip; look out.

Mississippi Duel

Only a brief factor from the fence last time; 3 of his wins came on grass and the other was on the muddy sealed strip; runner can give you a :45 and change half when in the mood; don't ignore. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Laguna Girl

Hey, you get a SW for your $2 bucks if you end up on this gal; first try over this track Dec. 27 resulted in a game 10-1 SW; that continues her superb form, save for that one hiccup in the mud at BEL way back in Oct. 2012; speed is her primary weapon and that last shows she can sustain it and obviously likes it here.

Exclusive Warrior

Had a terrific 2012 (5 for 10) but things haven't gone so well for a while; just 2 3rds in 5 tries last yera and in all honesty, she wasn't really a factor even on those 2 occasions (beaten 5 1/4, 3 1/4 lengths); even more worrisome is those 2 outings wer eher first of 2013 so her 3 starts since haven't been pretty; at least there's no huge drop and Velasquez does see fit to ride but she needs to turn back the clock 13 months or so to find the type of performance level it will take to be a player.

Nicole's Miss El

Good news is she comes out of a key heat (produced 2 next-out winners); bad news is she was last of 7, beaten a long ways (18 lengths) at 36-1 so she wasn't much of a factor and likely doesn't deserve too many bonus points for exiting a key heat; you also have to go back to 2011 to find her last victory; has a touch of back-class but it's been a while since she ran a race good enough to contend with these, and it's not as if this has been her favorite spot, either (4-0-1-0).

La Verdad

Looks awfully scary coming into this off 4 straight wins; it's not just that she won those 4, but she romped in all 4; top Beyer (97) shows she has more than ample oomph and that last win Dec. 19 proves she can play her game just fine here; has speed but note she rerallied to win here last month so if the rail gal proves quicker that shouldn't be an issue; snappy work at BEL Jan. 10 says she holds her edge.

Champagne Rain

Tough to be too enthused; had things going along very nicely last summer/fall at MTH with 3 straight good outings, 2 of them wins; but then came a dud on turf at MED then a dull outing in a stakes at LRL Nov. 9 and she hasn't run since; maybe the freshening, drop and change of venue can get her back on track but even if that's the case her 'A' game from those good MTH races still likely isn't enough to be anything more than a minor player here.

Masasi

Continues her good form; toss that Oct. 4 run at BEL (was trying turf for the first time and it came after over 6 months off, too) and you're left with nothing but good dirt form;m has run well here and she could fall into a dream trip if 'Girl and La Verdad manage to go toe-to-toe too eagerly too soon; that 92 Beyer earned Oct. 24 shows she's got the necessary ammo to win this. - Michael Hammersly