Aqueduct: Closer Looks for January 13, 2014

Race 1

Foxbeau

Took four starts to break her maiden but did so with a stylish win Nov. 15 in which she showed a new dimension by coming from off the pace; that race earned her a 62 Beyer, the top last-race figure in this lineup; and she already ran a 63 in September, too; appealing to fig followers.

Forbidden Talent

She's speedy, having led in two of three starts, but her only win came with Pletcher when she got loose in the slop; perhaps will improve upon that last race, which marked her first start in almost a couple months.

Derek's Girl

Has proven a rewarding claim by Farnsworth; this one has already picked up a graded placing and now drops into a starter; Tempted winner Stopchargingmaria returned to narrowly take the Demoiselle; and Tempted also-ran Stonetastic was third in the Golden Rod; light on Beyers but has a class edge; choice.

Appearance

Looks like a Baffert cull that Davidson bought; Davidson is hitting at a 22% rate on the year and has good numbers with horses joining his stable, but this one seems better suited to routing than sprinting.

Manhattan Gin

Only beat NY- bred maiden 35Ks last time out but did so despite stumbling at the start; nice speed to be head and head for the lead after that troubled beginning, but the presence of speedball Fordidden Talent will make the task of shaking loose difficult.

Fast 'n' Firm

First start in NY and on dirt was disappointing; she just never got involved; showed a lot more in her first race by overcoming a slow start and rallying from sixth to win; candidate to move forward in her second start on dirt.

Race 2

Sublime

Darley homebred has a bug named for his unveiling for a barn that does pretty nice work right out of the box; colt is by a sire who gets 10% winners from his debit runners and he's the first foal to race out of a dam who was a G1 SW sprinter and multiple G2 SW router while banking 2.3 million; works are all breezes so there's not much clue as to his ability but being that he was training in Florida in late fall it's certainly interesting to see them unveil him up here.

Ferlin Husky

Field's most experienced runner just missed when turned back to this trip on the surface switch last time; filly returned to work well for this and she will get the services of a top pilot for her second crack over the inner track; repeat of her last makes her the one to beat.

Killer Crossover

Sat a nice trip down inside after taking money in his debut last month but was beaten by one of the guys he'll catch again in here; barn moves them forward second time out and this guy is the first foal to race out of a G3 SP dam so the pedigree is there for him to improve quickly; contender.

Schivarelli

Sire gets 10% first out winners from his offspring and the dam was herself a debut winner who won 2 sprints and 77K prior to dropping SW juvenile sprinter and 104K earner B C's Train; barn fires with its newcomers and he boasts some breezes that suggest there's some ability here.

Hard Fast Cash

Sire hits with 10% of his debut runners and the unraced dam dropped 2 winners including 12 time sprint winner and 224K earner Nashi; he's worked ok but the barn didn't win a race all of last year and they'll name a pilot who is having a tough time at the local stand.

Smarty Burns

Starts from the outside slot in his return from the freshening and he'll get the hood for this one; 900K yearling buy has been a disappointment thus far, but the dam did drop G3 SP, SW and 162K earner Supreme who won twice sprinting and this outfit's runners usually get better with racing.

Race 3

Point Taken

His DQd win in September was on the lead and figures to be a pace presence throughout with Groomedforvictory; aggressive class drop off the claim for a high-percentage trainer with this angle; the 2-back runner-up effort is a strong race featuring the winner who repeated with a 94 Beyer speed figure; the pick.

Dan and Sheila

Disappointed in the 2nd start off the claim especially after drilling a new Beyer Top 1st time out for the trainer; that December-head win was the 1st time he had connected for a picture in awhile and clearly latest was a bounce off that huge 2-back try with 44 days between races he came back in 9 days for last; others appeal more.

Groomedforvictory

Exits a career-low speed figure; was claimed back by the trainer for this; best 2013 Beyer was for this trainer in the June-BEL victory; 6-0-2-2 career record with blinkers on they will be removed for this; he has not been on the lead since an AQU-Mile Inner Dirt win in December, 2012, but is likely to be a pace presence in a field lacking speed; reunites with the Inner-Dirt win rider for this; field-best Beyer was posted February, 2011, in a GP-1M dirt optional-claiming victory scoring from a stalking trip.

Twice Mike

61 days since posting his lowest Beyer since October, 2011 in the 2nd-career start; barn change and 1st time in New York off a dull effort; worked well for this however the barn is 1-for the last-15 with 1st-time acquisitions and 0-for the last-40 in straight-claiming races; his 3-back career-best Beyer near-miss finish is a good race; the runner-up Beyered 92 in his next-out IND-OPC win; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Socialsaul

Snapped an 0-for-7 AQU-Inner Dirt winless streak by scoring over New York breds; owns his Beyer-career Top over today's track also; the last time in open company was a double-digit length defeat; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 93 in his next-out AQU-OPC win.

Sacred Ground

Career-best Beyer was on a sloppy-AQU-Inner Dirt oval; late runner needs a pace meltdown to score and just do not see a lot of pace here for him to close into; last 2 wins on wet tracks and rallied well in the mud in last when showing zero gate speed while shortening up for this does not add to the appeal.

Scotus

Claimed off a victory defeating the show finisher who Beyered 68 in his next-out AQU--OPC win; exits his lowest speed figure since March noting that superb 4-for-6 wet-track record; the October show finish key race saw the winner Beyer 98-90 in 2 next-out wins while the runner-up won his next 2 starts with 90-89 Beyers.

Race 4

Let's Discuss

No chance 11 days ago when caught on a wide path; finally draws an inside slot and drops a notch; reverts to the original rider and may show more firepower off that needed tightener; the betting value should be there despite those factors.

Maybrys Challenge

Did not fare well first start off the claim but has shown a decent first gear in the past over various surfaces and distances; latest blowout was fairly good but it may prove insufficient; on the flip side; the shorter distance today should help somewhat.

Tactical Pal

Adds blinkers after that recent debut which featured a troubled getaway; his sire won 4 of 28 starts and 163K; the dam won 6 of 28 attempts and 288K; among the winning siblings is 44K earner Artuya.

Kick'n Butt

Showed more prompting speed in that second venture and looks like a comfortable fit here because of the steep drop in class; his sire won multiple G3s and 662K while the dam won 1 of 18 and 40K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Astronomo

Newcomer was sired by G1 victor Arch who captured 480K and whose progeny have won nearly 11 percent of their debuts; the dam won 4 of 16 and 84K; winning siblings include 29K earner Syzxgy.

Channel Boy

Modest breeze pattern over this surface for his first try; the colt's sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; descendants of Utopia are 6 for 133 as far as winning their initial try; the dam won 4 of 16 and 81K; sib to 342K earner Channel Lady.

Pete's Fleet

He unleashed a mild middle move in his last attempt but another wide trip, especially with the shorter run to the far turn today, seems in the cards; an off track, which seems a possibility according to the latest forecast, would diminish his chances.

Essence of a Hero

Beginner was sired by Andromeda's Hero who notched 836K (he was also multiple G1 stakes-placed); his descendants have won only 1 of 54 debuts; the dam won 3 of 12 and 72K; this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate.

Race 6

Tapitation

Tapit about 12% with firsters in a 455-runner sample; sire was unbeaten in 2 juvenile starts, banked over $550K taking 3 of 6; Grade 3 winning 4 for 14 dam banked nearly $200K; this is her first to race; colt sure looks fit enough.

First Ranger

At least he got a feel of the strip; dam was unraced; lone half bro Saturday Appeal took 2 of 20, earned nearly $100K; probably a late factor if at all.

Freddie G

Contessa 14% the last 5 years with second shooting MSW runners; colt took pretty good action but never got untracked; G2 placed 4 for 13 dam won at 2, banked over $300K; both siblings won, each won once; Contessa tried to get some speed into him with the clever blowouts; expect better effort here.

Scare City

Schosberg 3 for 26 or 12% the last 5 years with second shooting MSW runners and 4 ran second; hung wide from slot 8 but has trained fast since; 2 for 15 dam banked nearly $25K; 5 of 6 siblings won; top kin Motor City Mama took 9 of 31, banked over $250K; best of 41 bullet locked and loaded.

Chase the Giant

Frost Giant 5 for 35 with debuters; sire took a Group 3 at 2, ended up banking over $450K; 7 for 42 dam earned nearly $140K; 2 of 5 siblings won; top kin was just one for 7 but earned over $70K; wonder if he had a setback; note no published moves in October or September.

Thrill Hill

Maybe he was just a tad short in the opener; dam out of the money 5 times; 4 of 5 siblings won; top kin Major Dome took 4 of 20, earned nearly $30K; over 3 clear, top last-race Beyer in the resume; respect.

The Rhythmisright

Hushion solid with this move; he is 18 for 58 or 31% with second shooting MSW runners with a median payoff of 2-1; considering the winner was clear, the debut was not all that bad; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; not a ton of speed in here; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Campion Lane

Soph broke poorly but was inching toward the winner late; all 3 siblings won; 2 banked 6 figures; top kin Big Brownie took 3 stakes, banked nearly $270K; may need softer to shine.

Race 7

Wishingonastar

His best effort is strong enough to make him a threat in this spot, but when seeing what he's been doing lately, it might be a lot to expect a top try from him; runner up from latest won next out at Bel on 10/5 going 7f over turf vs. 20k claimers with a 95 Beyer.

Meeker Avenue

He was a stakes winner as a 2-year-old, and if he can regain some of his better form he can have a say in the outcome against these, but he must show more than he has in his recent races in order to contend.

Sportswriter

Multiple stakes winner sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and it's worth noting that he's making his first start after a claim for a barn that is strong in that category; runner up from latest won next out here on 12/28 going 6f vs. 12.5k claimers with a 78 Beyer; Ortiz has won with 7 of 21 (33%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

His dirt form hasn't been poor, but five of his six wins have been earned over turf and his one dirt victory was earned over a surface with moisture in it; don't feel that he's entirely out of the question against these, but prefer to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Armed U S A

His two most recent races have been a couple of his better efforts and this really isn't a bad spot for him to ship to NY to take a crack at a nice purse; he has decent positional speed to help him manage a comfortable trip and he has posted a win at this venue.

Take the El Train

Respect the fact that he's lightly raced and still has a little potential for better behind him, but he's yet to run a race that is strong enough to give him a competitive look against these; winner from latest won next out here on 1/1 going 1m 70y vs. 25k OPC's with an 80 Beyer.

Buddy Red

Half-brother to multiple graded stakes winner Cluster of Stars (7-7, 549k) has made 38 career starts and he's never performed at a level that is strong enough to suggest that he can get the better of the top contenders in here.

El Grande Patron

He has some early speed to throw at these and it's a little bit interesting to see that his career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over the inner dirt, and that level of performance can make him a player in this event.

Sunrise Lover

Not only is his 1-for-28 race record uninspiring, but his best effort doesn't appear to be fast enough to beat these; note that it took him 27 starts to break his maiden; this post at the distance is just 2-for-26 (8%) at the current meeting; he has the look of an outsider.

Race 8

Birchwood Road

The 2-back turf graduation looks better since the show finisher posted a 69 Beyer speed figure in a next-out AQU-MSW win; plenty to prove on dirt and has never raced on a fast-main track; the 113-pound assignment is the lightest of his career; icy-local barn 10-0-0-0 to start the meet; others appeal more.

Paddy Kunuckles

Defeated more than 13 lengths by maiden claimers the last time over the track; a 5-0-1-1 record since the July claim and seems to be shooting high off the hanging-5th FL alw. loss bringing a 4-0-0-1 AQU-Inner Dirt line with a best Beyer of 30 here; a tough call.

Saturday Appeal

Figures to be loose on an easy lead which is always a dangerous scenario for any runner; rematches with Sinistra who defeated him by 7 lengths on a wet track; his 1-for-16 fast track record is not easy to take but that win was on the AQU Inner Dirt; can take these a long way up top.

Ego Friendly

Exits his best Beyer since the career-Top race in June and that's a good sign 1st time over the track and racing well on a wet track which he had not handled well in prior starts; the last time in vs NY-breds at this level he could not handle Alcolite who is here.

Sea to Sky

His-muddy graduation romp is a field-best Beyer speed figure; huge try off the bench to just miss and the added half furlong here is a plus; obviously a wet track is what he likes and got that in last; big chance to move forward for a 24%-win trainer with this angle; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 94-95-88 in his 3 next-out wins including 125K-100K stakes victories.

Noosh's Tale

Defeated by more than 30 lengths combined in the 2-dirt defeats; he gets off the turf but seems set to improve 2nd time off the 88-day absence for a 1-for-24 fresh trainer since 2013; late runner should get a good-pace flow to rally into but will be taking a wait and see approach

Sunnyinseabrook

12th race was the charm 45 days ago in a race washed off the grass where his best Beyer was accomplished; 9%-winning-fresh trainer with light speed figures on display for the 1st start vs. winners which is often any runner's toughest assignment.

Greeley's Law

The last time he was on the lead was in March but exiting sprints figures to show some gate speed chasing Saturday Appeal; the 0-for-19 AQU-Inner dirt record is not easy to take; posted a last-place finish vs. the runner-up finisher who Beyered 78 in his next-out AQU-$12,500-claiming win.

Sinistra

Going to be tough if repeats his career-best Beyer performance over the track when 7 lengths clear of the show runner while necked by the winner who repeated with an 80 Beyer capturing an AQU-OPC; can he fire just as well on a fast oval is the issue but hard to dimiss off latest.

Alcolite

Positive 5-pound weight swing off the 7-length loss vs. Sinistra; is best on fast-race tracks so hopes a dry oval will help turn the tables; sat just off the speed to graduate over the track in 2012; hopes to work out a similar trip stalking Saturday Appeal then getting 1st run on the closers.

Awesome Heart

Today's 113-pound assignment is the lightest of his career; wet-track graduation then did not fire when stretched out vs. winners at long odds; has shown zero stamina in prior-route races which makes him an outsider vs. this kind.

Jack's R Wild

7F-graduate on BEL dirt was no match for Sea to Sky over the track and his 7-0-1-0 AQU-Inner Dirt line is horrible; lone win was a next-to-last rally; hopes Saturday Appeal sets a hot pace and others chase which would help the late kick; off recent form and the ground-losing draw will be backing others.

Rocket Hero

Has not been able to race back to his debut-winning Beyer speed figure Top; the winner and 4th-place finishers from last Beyered 86-74 in next-out AQU-OPC and $12,500-claiming wins; sire did not race on dirt; he was a G1-SW at 8.5F on synthetic; dam finished 6th in her only dirt route.

Escape to the Moon

Would be a major pace presence if in chasing Saturday Appeal to the front; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with an 83 Beyer; sire did not race past 5F winning at that distance on dirt; dam won at 1 Mile on the main track.

Race 9

Tassinaia

The drop is logical after several non-efforts; she has to be considered an under achiever as 3 siblings banked 6 figures including over $300K earner Tommasi; off poorly in last but miss has sneaky speed; check out the zip he showed at SAR; don t ignore.

Erin's Desert

Steadied at boxcars, could enjoy this softer spot; 1 for 2 dam earned just over 2 grand a start; several multiple race winners in the family; top kin Elise s Notebook took a stakes, won 8 of 18, banked $135K; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Myperfectvalentine

She has been around the wire vs. higher-priced maidens; would think long and hard before jumping on 9-5 again; hustling bug takes the reins; due.

Pegasus Beba

Considering the cut back he could be left with a ton of work to do turning for home; dam was 0 for 6; 3 of 4 siblings won; 2 banked 6 figures including near $200K earner Strategic Move; barn due for a little luck, check out the 12 slices.

Leland's Dawn

She showed some semblance of speed last year, could be on the muscle fresh with the blinks; 3rd finisher in last took a maiden $16K claimer and the winner repeated in a $25K optional; 3 for 21 dam banked $130K; she has trained steadily for this.

High Inflation

She danced all the dances last year, just slowly; note show horse in last was well clear and that runner returned to take a $20K claimer, and then was out of the money in a $16K N2L seller; more experienced pilot aloft; tough to adore after 17 defeats.

Signora Sofia

Not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; she has never run in the money, has zero speed, and she was beaten nearly 19 the last time she cut back in distance; passing.

Beautiful Me

Apparently not much of a workhorse, she does have more speed than she flashed in the June finale; stakes placed 9 for 49 dam banked $175K; lone half sis to race took a stakes, won 2 of 9, banked nearly $65K; respect capable barn.

Lil Tiffy

Miss has the 2 races to draw from now and miss was clear for fun; probably from off the pace if at all but catches a very soft group; one of these days.