Aqueduct: Closer Looks for February 7, 2014

Race 1

Chrishi

The four horses who finished in front of him in his opener all came back to disappoint next-time out; Brown has a 25% strike-rate with maiden second-timers in routes during the last five years ($1.63 ROI), and his stats with droppers to maiden-claiming company are also solid; trainer/rider duo is 4 for 12 at the meet; contender.

Permanent Campaign

Goes long for the first time here, and the average win distance of Sky Mesa's progeny is 6.9 furlongs; this is the unraced dam's first foal to start; Violette has poor recent numbers with droppers from maiden special to maiden-claiming company, and is 0 for 3 at the meet when using Irad; speed threat?

Percy's Ambition

Checked in fifth behind two of his current rivals in a similar spot at second asking Jan. 9, which was an improvement on his debut; Indiana-bred could be a factor with more forward progress, and is worthy for the bottom of intra-race wagers.

Bridgeville

Stalked an honest pace before fading to finish third in his encouraging local bow at about this distance and price, from which the seventh horse exited to end up fourth for $25K; First Samurai colt worked a quick half-mile the other day, and should make some noise in just his third trip postward.

Alice and Trixie

The lone filly in the field showed speed on the stretchout before tiring after a wide journey in her first two-turn try three weeks ago; she's nicely bred on the dam's side, but is out of her element here from a Beyer perspective; would be a big surprise.

Village Warrior

The likely favorite came wide for second behind a runaway winner when he dipped his toe into the selling ranks Jan. 9; Pletcher possesses good numbers while adding blinkers, but he's 0 for 8 at the meet when using Maragh (five of those runners made the board); Repole Stable runner should be dangerous unless the track is biased along the inside. - Ron Gierkink

Race 3

Reggie D

Ran on well on the big track here Nov. 16 but then came a very dull run (7th, beaten 20 lengths) on this track Dec. 21 and he hasn't run since; does drop, gets blinkers and Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride but you have to go back to 2012 to find his last win, too; blinkers go back on but his lack of speed has always been a bugaboo.

Indy Sea

Sharp 2nd for this price at this trip Dec. 14, and was claimed that day by Quick; they next tried tougher (no tag) and longer (mile) but after pressing the issue he gave way badly in the lane; back in for a tag (same as claimed level) and Ortiz stays); can certainly be a player if he returns to his prior form, though that's no small 'if', is it?

Boogie Too

Sent off the 2-1 fave vs. $30K N2L foes at CD Nov. 7, after 2 months off, and was an OK 4th; then tried this price here Dec. 14 and was no factor (7th), finishing well behind a few of today's foes; freshened since and at least his lone win came off a similar type of layoff; still, Asmussen is 0 for first 16 this meet so could it be his runners best prepared to win are stabled elsewhere, hmmmm?

Joking

Decent 3rd for $20K here Jan. 13; not only did Baker see fit to claim him but now nearly doubles him in value, which is most encouraging; that being said, his work here hasn't been his best as his lone win and lone 2nd came elsewhere, and a while ago.

Ten Items Or Less

There's speed here, though that hasn't translated too well in 3 tries vs. winners; in his defense, all 3 came vs. much tougher, all 3 were separated by layoffs and 1 came on turf; there's no layoff today, there's a significant drop and the blinks go on with a solid :49B work at BEL Jan. 24 to encourage.

Whatabouthonor

Been burning money of late - 5th at 4-5 Nov. 8, 3rd at 9-5 Dec. 14 here and 6th at 9-5 Dec. 31 here; at least Perillo saw fit to claim him Dec. 31 and brings him back at the same level; been facing tougher, likely the reason he's been favored of late; you have to go back to his July 2012 debut to find his lone win and after that came over 7 months off and while he ran well when he resurfaced in early 2013 his form has declined a bit; at least this looks like a good level for him and he does have tactical speed. - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Handy Stan

Two respectable efforts thus far and he finally draws inside; his sire won 1 of 6 starts and 75K while the dam involved was without a victory in 7 attempts; there are no winning siblings to mention; obvious true contender but odds will plummet.

Missile Nick

Raced only twice last year but has earned many checks in his career; there is only light workout activity during the vacation period but he has shown some fair early speed in the past; difficult call in this spot.

Private Irving A

A clear-cut second in his last try, he has distinct money chances again today regardless of the soil condition at post time; switches to an apprentice who has been on quite a roll of late; hard to leave out of your trifecta approach.

Tom's Vision

Newcomer hails from G2 winner who banked 1.36 million but offspring of Friendly Island have won only 1 of 28 debuts; the dam was without victory in 2 attempts; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Chang's Secret

Caught wide in his last assignment, he never really got involved when trounced by Private Irving A; that was his first sprint attempt in quite some time and even though the early fractions should be swifter today, he will likely arrive too late once again.

Gotham Rising

Failed to fire in his maiden voyage but he returns with blinkers and tries the common ranks for the first time; his sire, a pure sprinter, won a G2 and 440K while the dam went zero for 2 lifetime; winning siblings include 18K earner Sunny Sol Rio.

D J's Hope

Goes back to blinkers and did show much improved fighting speed in the last run (although helped by the slow pace); unlikely to obtain ideal position here and the third start off the bench angle may not apply; healthy odds assured.

Wood On the Fire

Aimed too high in his first start under these silks; realistically placed now, it seems possible he can be on or near the lead right out of the gate if he runs back to the efforts 2 and 3 back (both of which involved demanding duels); consider. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Heir to Dare

Drops in for a straight tag after being given some time off the fade against a much better bunch last time; mare was caught in a wide spot in that one and she does appear quick enough to secure a decent trip early with the move inside in her first over the inner; contender for a sharp fresh outfit.

Stunning Lady

Earned her first 2 career victories over this strip last year before ending the season with a couple of weak spins aganst better in Jersey; maybe the drop to this level helps in her first start in over months and the barn does do nice work with its returnees; consider.

Insolvent

Speedy gray stretches out a half panel after coming up short late at odds on a couple of weeks back; she'll get off the fence for the move to straight claimers and there's other lick in here but she could prove to be the quickest of these early; they may have to run her down to win.

Vinda

Fresh mare steps up for her first start off the claim by a barn that excels with this type right back; her career best number did come over the inner and she nearly overcame the rough trip to score in her return to this strip; worth a good look if the pace heats up.

The Royal Boot

Quick breaker returns from the freshening for an outfit that hits at a big clip with the move; she was in against a subsequent sprint stakes winner in her first off the barn's claim and maybe she goes better second time over the local strip, but she draws outside the other speed and that's not going to make things easy for her today.

Run a Dubb Dubb

Statebred tries open claimers following an improved try when dropped in to face her own kind here late last month; it's been a while since she's run fast enough to step with the better gals in here and her pilot does opt to side elsewhere; have to pass on her.

E Z Passer

Outran her price when turned back to sprint on the rise to allowance company a few weeks back; 3 time inner track winner should get more pace to run at in here and that can help her late kick, but things will have to break her way; worth a look. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Marketable Miss

Game in defeat in her debut last month when doubly compromised by post and path; her sire won a G3 stakes and 354K overall; the dam involved never raced; winning siblings include 114K earner Destiny's Song.

Barrier to Entry

All kinds of trouble in her first attempt over this inner dirt surface; her sire won the G1 Hopeful and 818K while the dam won 1 of 4 and 62K; winning siblings include 125K earner Winter Lady; draws a cozy post for a change and should upgrade.

My Girl Madison

Newcomer was sired by Forestry, winner of the G1 King's Bishop and 591K (his progeny have won 60 out of 574 initial starts); the dam won 4 of 14 and 183K; winning siblings include 93K earner Prix de Karakorum.

Very Accomplished

Lost momentum at the start of her first venture and never got untracked thereafter; her sire won multiple G1s and 2.05 million while the dam won 2 of 8 and 97K; this is her only foal to compete; can upgrade with equipment change.

In Her Day

Beginner was sired by Discreet Cat who banked 1.69 million including a G1 tally (his progeny have won 23 out of 179 debuts); the dam won 1 of 3 and 25K; winning siblings include 528K earner Mother Russia.

Baby B

Her latest breeze from the gate was strong; her sire won the Kentucky Derby and 3.61 million in total; descendants of Big Brown are 12 for 89 as far as winning their first try; the dam lost her only race; sib to 244K earner Dicey Girl.

Brad's Ruby

Showed decent prompting ability when failing as the favorite in her Tampa Bay getaway; might be able to clear this field and is certainly worth consideration if front-runners have dominated the card up to now.

La Dama de Hierro

Unfortunately, she once again draws a wide slot; was not able to effectively perform last month when turning back and when being bumped at the start; should be more of a force today if breaking alertly and being the first to attack presumed pacesetter Brad's Ruby.

Nile Empress

Progeny of Pioneerof the Nile, a G1 winner who captured 1.63 million, have scored in 6 of 36 initial races; the dam was without a tally in 9 tries; this is her only foal to make it to the races; expert trainer at the helm. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Saichi Sweepin

Nothing wrong with winning half of the races; she got a boost when the winner two back repeated in an N1X with an 82 Beyer; trainer tinkers with blinkers for the first time here; Lopez fits her and he rides this strip solidly; respect.

Trail Walker

She got a feel of the strip and than can't hurt; 12/5 winner repeated in a $35K optional, then took a $75K stakes; there is speed inside and outside of her here; not sure the race sets up all that great for her today.

My Place

Miss has more speed than she just showed but she got a taste of the strip; the route could have helped her stamina and there is plenty of speed here to promote the kick; look for pilot to take a little hold, try to get her to settle, hope a duel materializes and then kick.

Cape Cod Carol

Mare has a nice stalk and pounce style; like the drills since the clever win last time and the winner of the 11/6 event cashed next out in a $150K stakes, then was 2nd beaten 3 quarters in a $100K stakes; she flattered the Hennig runner with the win in last; this is a good earner and she likes this layout; must be left in the hopper right back for sure.

Nicole's Miss El

A distant second when losing ground late in the best inner result; been a long time between drinks for this gal; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Merry Meadow

Got revenge right back for being taken down, then lost a heart breaker when nearly 4 clear in last; would love to see her develop that killer instinct; check out 13 slices and just 3 wins.

Indian Splendor

Dismiss sub :22 speed at your own risk; prove fresh, proven in off going; and nothing wrong with the blowout on the 28th; could get brave if she gets a lonely lead. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Go Liberty Go

2nd-time Long can be an improvement angle moving forward slightly off the debut loss; the show finisher from last posted a 74 Beyer speed figure in his next-out AQU-16K-maiden-claiming win; the debut runner-up graduated next out with a 64 Beyer capturing a AQU-16K-maiden-claiming win.

Mad Props

Defeated Go Liberty Go and El Dreamer in last as they chased a next-out 74 Beyer graduate; shown zero-gate speed in 4 starts and even the weight reduction for latest did not produce improved resuts for a trainer winless with at least his last 25 dirt starters.

Quiet Value

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire went 0-for-7 in dirt roiutes but was Grade 1 placed at 9F; dam did not race past 7F; exiting speedy sprints figures to chase Prime Time City for the lead today; could not defeat similar rivals at much shorter; know him early but unsure about late.

El Dreamer

Exits his lowest Beyer since September when disappointing again on AQU Inner Dirt; his last exacta finish was on the AQU Main; would have to get my Mad Props here who beat him in last as they chased a next-out 74 Beyer graduate; 2-back rally was good suggesting he will fire best on wet-main tracks

Unbridled Bear

Has not raced past 7.5F yet; sire was a multiple Grade 1-dirt router at 9F; dam won a dirt-route allowance; massive improvement in his 2nd dirt start catching mud then rallying like he wanted to run all day; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 65 in a next-out MTH-25K-maiden-claiming win; the 3-back runner-up graduated next out in a GP-30K-maiden claimer with a 76 speed figure.

Harry Consolidator

Was no match finishing behind 3 of these in last; offered brief speed 3 races ago when defeated by the show runner who Beyered 57 in his next-out AQU-$12,500-maiden-claiming win; is in with his highest weight assignment since December for this; would be a shocker.

Yo Bro

Defeated 1 runner in 2 races combined although the dirt-route career debut saw the runner-up and show finishers Beyer 72-64 in their next-out PRX-25K-15K maiden-claiming wins; wish his trainer was not 0-for the last-29 with sprint-to-route starters.

Prime Time City

Projects as the one to catch but will likely have Quiet Value breathing down his neck from the bell; Go Liberty Go defeated him 2 back then returned off the 47-day layoff 1st time on AQU Inner Dirt to post a career-best Beyer speed figure racing 2nd time with blinkers on; is the one to catch and beat.

Snifter

51 days since showing a mild rally when racing in a maiden claimer for just the 2nd time and over a wet track for the 1st time; exits a career-low Beyer while 2-back the runner-up finisher Beyered 79 in a next-out AQU-MSW win; there is plenty of talent here posting his October field-best Beyer speed figure at 7F on BEL dirt hoping the class drop to lowest-claiming price ever will produce the diploma earner.

Uragano

Adds blinkers but is in need of a serious wakeup call; the 3-back winner and runner-up Beyered 77-76 in next-out AQU-MSW and optional-claiming wins; was no match vs. similar rivals 2 back; wish the workout for this assuming with the new hood on produced a quicker effort. - Art Gropper