Aqueduct: Closer Looks for February 28, 2014

Race 1

Fade to Black

Moves back to the fence following her third runner up finish in as many starts; she's got early foot and there isn't a whole bunch of that commodity in here so it looks as if she'll be able to work out a favorable trip; numbers she's earned tower over what those with experience have run so she's going to take plenty of money and she's failed at a short price before, but she's not going to be easy to beat.

Ballerena Bliss

Sire gets 11% first out winners from his offspring and the unraced dam dropped 3 winners including G2 SP, SW and 204K earner Shebelongstoyou whose 3 wins all came routing; not easy to win at this trip first time out and the barn hasn't had a lot of recent luck with newcomers, but the first part of the entry has been worked long of late and her most recent drill suggests she does have some early foot; top pilot gets aboard but he hasn't had a lot of success for this outfit.

Miss Red Cloud

Stretches back out after a rough start on the rise to this level in her first off the sharp barn's claim; filly's 2 better efforts did come going long and the outfit has had a lot of recent success on the stretchout, but this gal didn't run particularly fast in either and will need to show a lot more to threaten the big gal in this spot.

Mr Rico Is Valid

Sire gets about 10% debut winners and the unraced dam dropped 6 foals who were all multiple winners including SW sprinter and 214K earner Roman Candles as well as one who won twice going long; works aren't much but the barn gets them ready and this pilot is profitable on their runners.

William'sluckygray

Barn's other half had some trouble early but didn't do much running when stretched out to 2 turns second time out; she will get the services of a top bug for this and she is kin to a route winner so maybe she has more to offer second time going long; last week's drill was improved.

Las Olas Azur

Returns from 5 months on the shelf after showing little in her Belmont sprint debut; she did breeze well earlier in the week for this, but the barn boasts weak numbers with its returnees; SW dam won twice going long and this filly's immediate male pedigree influences liked routing so maybe the added ground agrees with her; consider.

Palestrina

Gets Lasix for the first time after backing up from a wide spot to finish well behind today's rail runner in her second start over the inner track; initial spin here this winter wasn't bad but she also wasn't much of a threat to the big one in here; barn's recent numbers with today's applicable angles suggest she may be capable of getting in the exotics mix here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Love Contract

Nice 3rd at 67-1 in a route at this level Jan. 10, a run which looks even better when you note 2 she faced that day came right back to win; that was routing, yes, but 2 of her 4 wins have come at this trip, though you have to go back a long ways (Dec. 2011) to find her last win; at least perked up this fall/winter but considering that, why then the nearly 2 months off, hmmm?

Off My Cloud

3rd for $35K here Dec. 27 and Terranova saw fit to claim her; it's a tad worrisome she hasn't been seen since - after all, you don't claim a horse merely for the sake of feeding it - but there are some good signs still; 1st, Terranova is a super 3 for his last 5 (60%) first off a claim and 2nd, he brings her back UP in price; remember, just 9 months or so ago her then-connections thought enough of her to try a stakes at DEL (in which she was well backed at 7-2); working steadily for this.

Champagne Rain

Good news is she exits a key heat (produced 2 next-out winners); bad news is she ran 9th of 11 that day in a stakes at LRL so she may not deserve too many bonus points for exiting a key heat; also, that was Nov. 9 - she hasn't been seen since; at least is proven sprinting and while she drops it's encouraging they do not risk her for a tag; still, her best work has come at MTH and obviously we're not playing on the Jersey shore today, are we?

Masasi

Comes here in good form; 2nd in a race like this here Jan. 17 and than a nice 3rd in the Correction here Feb. 1; last 2 certainly stamp her as the one to beat and note versatility, too, which gives her rider options.

Cape Cod Carol

6 straight top-3 finishes so she holds good form; in fact, toss those 2 stakes tries (4th in each, so she didn't run badly) at SAR last summer and toss a turf sprint at BEL last May and you have 9 straight top-3 finishes in dirt sprints; had a bad start in a race like this here Feb. 7 but ran on decently for 3rd, even if she was well beaten (6 lengths); that shows she fits and her career-top Beyer (86) came over this track in her race prior less than 2 months ago.

Stunning Lady

Had things going awfully well from the start of 2013 into late June; but the pattern since is worrisome - dull race/nearly 2 months off/dull race/now 5 months off; certainly proven here (she's 2 for 2) and a return to that form can make her a player but is that what we're to expect off that aforementioned worrisome pattern, hmmmm? - Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Star Magnolia

29%-winning 1st off the claim trainer wins 38% with maiden-claiming starters since 2013; pacesetter from last is the one to catch again cutting back a half furlong helps the cause; the debut winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with an 87 Beyer speed figure; the main knock is the worktab for this does not impress.

Heartfelt Jazz

Best Beyer occurred on a wet-race track; exits her 1st off-the-board finish in this same spot 4 weeks ago; worked well prior to last so not sure we can count on her recent 3F-bullet to make a case for serious improvement here; projects to press Star Magnolia early then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Halos and Angels

Any runner stepping up in price off a loss is not a good-win angle especially a 20-length defeat in Maryland; she's beaten 2 runners combined in 2 defeats; back in just 6 days the short-return angle is a 1-for-15 move from her trainer; others appeal more.

Fashionation

1st race off the claim represents a career-best Beyer but it still produced a double-digit length loss; best races are when she sits back then makes one run; back in with open company off the NY-bred losses; hopes to sneak into the exotics with a late run.

Unafraid

Sire is 14-for-236 with 1st-time starters; is the 1st foal out of a 9-0-3-2 dam (20K); trainer is 1-for-2 since 2013 with debut runners and that winner was 32-1 odds; is the only runner in the field without any racing experience; posted a good-worktab for the unveiling; contender.

Golden Annie

3-back at 3F longer on KEE synthetic is a field-best Beyer; 1st time for this price tag in last was a solid-exacta finish while 2-back was primed chasing the pace in a key race; the winner and show finishers Beyered 68-51 in next-out AQU-starter alw. and 25K-maiden-claiming wins; the one to beat.

Pari Nath

The 110-pound assignment is the lightest of her career coming off a loss vs. males including the winner who repeated in a LRL-16K claimer with a 48 Beyer; the 3-back show runner graduated next out in a AQU-16K-maiden claimer with a 42 speed figure.

Princesa de Papi

Some-good wakeup angles like racing 2nd-time out and getting blinkers on; 40-day absence for a high-percentage fresh trainer is another plus in her direction as well as a 21%-win rider for the barn stays right here; the runner-up finisher from her debut Beyered 60 in a next-out AQU-50K-maiden-claiming win; the pick.

Keen On Green

Troubled vs. Fashionation getting a rider change to a 35% win jockey for the trainer; back in just 6 days; in both starts she did not break sharply which may be the main goal for this; breaks widest so sure to lose ground while tackling open company after both starts vs. NY-breds. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Violet Hour

She has shown gate speed over various surfaces and distances and the overall pace structure of this field is on the soft side; no reason not to be a dead send from the advantageous rail; obvious true contender from winning connections.

Eyes of Midas

Dismiss the last race where she did not show her true colors; seems capable of making first run on Violet Hour or perhaps outsprinting that key rival to the far turn; has certainly improved since the introduction of blinkers and can be the right value play this afternoon.

Haldane

Enjoyed the muddy footing a week ago when driving home for the score; the mare must add 10 pounds from that tally and unless she can catches the same type of racing surface, may have trouble running down this group; a difficult call under this new management.

Shaunna Alexandra

Perfect thus far and the latest gate breeze was solid as well; both of her victories, however, featured very easy half-mile fractions and she may have to overcome a much swifter tempo today; gets a true test for character now.

So Blessed

No chance from the outside slot when participating in a lengthy duel 2 months ago; shows only sporadic workout activity during the vacation and is spotting much in the way of experience at this oval; a square price is certain.

Dee Dee's Comet

The grey was disqualified last time out after holding on with determination only to bother the second-place finisher; from underrated sprinter Don Six, she was clearly beaten by Eyes of Midas 2 races back despite a clean trip; cannot vote for the top spot.

My Donna Jean

The most experienced lady in the field, she has a stalking style which fits this race and has the benefit of an honest pace if all runners go; seems hard to leave out of your trifecta approach unless an off track is the case at post time.

Your Time Is Up

Destroyed her opposition in early January but was racing unchallenged and on the best part of the track; will have to be hard used early to get the lead today and that can prove her undoing; successful trainer/jockey combination is a definite plus factor. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Einstein Affair

Ellajud 3 for 13 with debuters; 4 for 40 with debuters; sire earned over $225K taking 7 of 23; dam was 0 for 2; 3 of 6 siblings won; one banked nearly $300K in Japan; lean toward watching one.

Killer Crossover

Allen Iverson would probably be backing this experienced maiden as he got a feel of the distance and is off a career Beyer; 4 for 17 dam won routing, banked nearly $170K; this is her first to race; both Pletchers are dangerous.

Tony D

Not thrilled with the defeats in the maiden claimers; this is a better distance for him and the last race came back fine as the place horse took a MSW and the winner repeated in a $50K starter; he has a right to grow into his skin as kin Composure, took a G1, banked over $700K; the sprint could have sharpened his speed.

Againsome

The old Florida to New York move is alive and well; like the series of drills since the educational debut; dam's lone win came on grass; both siblings won including double route winner and over $100K earner Star Presence; expect much better result.

Eastcoast Lights

He doesn't look like a happy horse; he bobbled two back, had to walk off in last and it wasn't a home run; nothing but winners in the tree and 2 banked over $160K; hard to adore.

Spartiatis

Trainer has had some nice horses over the decades; this runner has raced himself into shape and note the show horse in last graduated next out, then was a well beaten 2nd in an N1X; backers can point to the fact that 2 siblings banked 6 figures; hot bug take call, look out.

Long Water

Only a brief threat on the grass but he has the 2 races to draw from and could be more into the bit with the blinks this time; 2nd and 5th finishers in last won at this level next out and the winner repeated in a $75K optional with an 81 Beyer; he could mature with grace as kin Long River took several routes and banked nearly $250K; may like it here.

Away Game

Had the excuse of slop in the debut and he was inching toward the winner; must find a way to turn the tables on Crossover though; note top kin Wilkinson was stakes placed at 5 and earned over $450K; this guy is live.

Engine

Colt has showed talent from Day One; best Beyers came without shades and they are taken off here; 3 for 15 dam won routing twice, earned about 2 grand a start; there is a route winner in the family and kin More Smoke took several stakes and banked over $250K; respect everything from this barn.

Winter Games

Off rail here and runner could be more keen to run early with the shades on; the light at the end of the tunnel starts with fact a full sis was a double route winner and earned over $130K; could be compromised by the slot. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Carameaway

54 days away noting her New York-bred stakes-placed race over the track at today's distance is a career-best Beyer speed figure; was freshened more than 5 months for that effort so coming off the bench here is a plus; today is a rare race outside of NY breds; main knock is the last time vs. open company was an off-the-board route race in May.

Make the Moment

Deep closer needs the speedy Highestmaintenance to be pressed by a few others for the front while she saves ground then makes one run; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 74 Beyer; is another NY bred who tackles open company again.

Cubicle Queen

Her gate speed displayed in the first 3 starts has been missing from latest defeats; the 2-back winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 97 Beyer; projects to press the speedy Highestmaintenance then hopes to hang on late for a share; others appeal more.

Chippette

Scored on the lead in last but has also scored from a stalking trip which may be needed with likely pacesetter Highestmaintenance signed on here; wokeup 2nd race off the claim while 3-back beat the show runner who Beyered 77 in a next-out GP-OPC win.

Aliana

Figures to work out an ideal trip sitting just off Highestmaintenance and several other speedsters; the 1st start with winners was a solid effort closing like a wild horse losing to the winner who repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 74 Beyer; the October winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 77 speed figure; the pick.

Little Rocket

Began career 2-for-2 on wet tracks which why last defeat was so disappointing; lots of improvement angles today like 43 days away for a high-percentage fresh trainer who scores well with runners going blinkers on; her 2-back even finish looks better since the show runner Beyered 86 in a next-out AQU-allowance win.

Highestmaintenance

Projects as the speed of the speed and the one to catch; the trip back to Gulfstream off the long absence produced a career-low Beyer speed figure while 2-back is a field-best number in her only race over today's AQU Inner Dirt oval; favored in all 4 races with 1 win; her 2-back loss looks better since the show runner Beyered 94 in her next-out PIM-OPC win; speedy contender for win honors.

Lost in Success

The 92-day layoff produced a blowout graduation score and new Beyer Top; back in just 26 days for this is a concern as the bounce factor looms; latest victory looks better since the show runner Beyered 65 in a next-out AQU-35K-maiden-claiming win; the 2-back winner repeated in a LRL alw. with an 84 speed figure; seems the one to beat.

Keep Bustin

Favored in Philly then posted her lowest Beyer since June; is 3-for-4 on AQU Inner Dirt and should improve today 2nd time back off a 10-week absence; 1st-time JL Ortiz winning 26% for the trainer at AQU since 2013; the 2-back show runner Beyered 84 in a next-out AQU-OPC win; off latest this horse for the course must show more. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Wood On the Fire

After a series of demanding wide trips, he finally draws inside and perhaps can earn a major share as a result in this ordinary field; drops below the purchase price for the first time and lands into a fairly paceless group; consider.

Chang's Secret

Has not really improved in the last pair of claimers even though he has spent most of his career at the special weight level; has yet to break alertly and he cannot be given much support today, especially at this shorter distance.

My New Hope

Sheds the blinkers after the last troubled outing where he could not stay on; has a bit of prompting speed in his favor but his best performance by far was in a turf route; wait until grass racing returns in the spring.

Centripital

A force to be reckoned with in light of the upgrade shown last month (his first outing in many a blue moon); might be able to turn the tables on Pegasus Tiger who narrowly defeated him in their last match-up; worth inclusion.

Insighting

Drops off the claim and the trainer involved has been going great guns; the gelding may not have cared for the wet-fast footing in the last pair and is facing the lightest competition of his career; should be in the mix.

Pegasus Tiger

He twice disappointed as the public choice but appears to be holding the pace aces today and may finally break through; cutting back a sixteenth of mile should also help his chances but the price on the board will be unappealing; mixed signals.

D J's Hope

Flashed some prompting speed in the last run before fading and all 3 of his recent starts have been over a good track; best lifetime Beyer was earned over a fast surface and he can upgrade suddenly over such footing.

Harsh

Raced evenly in that bumpy 2013 finale, an improved effort; there is only light training track activity since then and he may be in need of a tightener; on the plus side of the ledger: the trainer has been sending out live runners of late.

It Was All Good

A playable longshot; he was compromised by the slow break from the fence in his maiden voyage and, moreover, the latest half-mile breeze was an upgrade; the gelding's sire won 3 of 18 and 360K; the dam was zero for 21 and this is her only foal to compete.

Bob and Jim

Tailed off at the end of last season although he did show some fighting speed in the race of 12/14; blinker removal, and a possible change of riding tactics, can help with his upset chances even from this annoying post position. - Jim Kachulis