Aqueduct: Closer Looks for February 16, 2014

Race 1

Brass Pear

He was made the favorite in the last start on the basis of the vast improvement in the previous run but a stumble hurt his chances; dead send from the rail seems likely although he might be denied the lead once again; very difficult call.

Mike and Bill

Failed to hit the board first time out but is the selection nonetheless; he was forced wide in his debut, a race where the early fraction was strong; his sire won multiple G1s on the NYRA circuit and 3.26 million; the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 285K earner Pennington.

It Was All Good

A slow break from the fence did not help matters first time out; his sire won 3 of 18 and 360K; the dam was without victory in 21 attempts; this is her sole foal to compete; rises from the claiming level and will have to improve significantly.

Horatio

The probable favorite yet again but he has failed in that role 4 times already; only light workout activity since that placing on New Year's Day; may be prove vulnerable as he faces several lightly-raced foes this afternoon.

Giulio Cesari

Just missed the place in his comeback race and had a cozy inside trip that day; may now be stuck in a 3-wide position in the opening stages with the short run to the far turn and that may limit his prospects; could utilize a key scratch among the early speed types.

Ronnie's Whey

Wheels right back after failing to finish 6 days ago; has yet to break alertly and considering this short distance, he will up against it if does not show an upgrade in gate speed; switches to apprentice handling for the first time.

Shot to Win

Raced evenly, but extremely wide, when defeated by some of these same rivals 6 weeks ago; shows a fair training track breeze pattern for this bid and the betting value should be there; a more intense early pace would help with the upset possibilities. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

It's Easy

Can't fault those that are a bit gun shy with the 3 chalk flops but the drop has to help; dam was unraced; one of 3 siblings won; that runner cashed 3 times in the minor leagues; rates long look here.

Maybry's Fortune

This is a better distance for her; and she seems more comfortable up for sale; 12/12 winner repeated in a $75K optional with a 68 Beyer; backers can point to the fact several siblings could run including Grade 2 winner and over $1.2 million earner Musket Man; expect a better effort here.

Gramma G G

Got away with a moderate pace and still tired last time; splits could be faster here; dam was 0 for 3; 3 of 5 siblings won including SW and over $125K earner Jazzy Jessy; contender, far from a cinch.

Peach Lake

You have to put them where they belong in this game, hence the drop; connections wouldn't mind if she starts acting like top kin Major Idea, who took a couple of stakes and won over $200K; still in for $7K more than purchase price.

See Me Sometime

Trainer tries to shake things up with the blinks; 2 for 22 dam was route only; this is her first to race; may push the issue, not sure she'll be around at the end.

Rumble Doll

In for $40K less than purchase price; stakes placed 3 for 23 dam earned nearly $200K; one of 2 siblings won and that runner was 1 for 11; more experienced pilot today, got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

La Dama de Hierro

Double digits on the tote every time, is looking at the same fate; there is a $130K earner in the tree; hard to adore.

Fashionation

Not thrilled with the repeated defeats vs. softer; stakes winning 3 for 8 dam banked over $100K; several multiple race winners in the family including over $160K earner All in With Aces; has some things to iron out. - Brian Mulligan

Race 4

Nail It

Saved 2 best Beyer speed figures for last pair when competing on wet-main tracks; graduated in front-running style the 1st time he ever made the lead defeating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 62 in his next-out AQU-25K-maiden-claiming win; has Money in Action to battle with early and may have to stalk that one here then hope to pass the class test.

Between the Lines

Did not like the wet track in last but it comes back as a key race defeating the 6th and 7th-place finishers; they Beyered 81-75 in next-out AQU-MSW victories; the winner from last repeated in an AQU-optional claimer with a 99 speed figure; would think he would be a lot tougher to handle on a fast oval posting a co-field-best Beyer 2-back; his debut race saw the runner-up finisher Beyer 92 in his next-out AQU-MSW win.

Money in Action

PEN-10K-claiming win in October at today's distance is a co-field-best Beyer speed figure; his game is to be forwardly placed but today it marks his 1st time over the AQU-Inner Dirt and 1st time ever in New York; nosed 4 races back by the show finisher who Beyered 65 in his next-out PRX-$12,500-claiming win.

Cobalto

Long layoff and barn change for a high-percentage trainer 1st time out with newly-acquired runners; lone win was on the lead and figures to be part of a hot pace with Ask About Me, Money in Action and Nail It; the win rider stays however the worktab for this does not inspire; view as a pace presence.

Patriotic Duty

Negative 7-pound weight swing from a 1-length loss vs. Can't Catch Me Now; was outfinished in latest while the last time at 5.5F was a far-back defeat; was nosed for the show money 2 races ago by a runner who Beyered 79 in his next-out BEL-35K-claiming win.

Can't Catch Me Now

Mile-mud graduate at BEL then racing back for this trainer in latest posting another victory; today's weight assignment is his lightest since April seeking the repeat; win rider lands on Nail It for this coming off a career-best Beyer; main concern is he did not show much run last summer when facing similar-allowance types so must pass the class test.

Ask About Me

Another who displayed new-found gate speed in latest; obviously the addition of blinkers helped him to graduate; his light-recent Beyers leap off the form at you in a negative way; the good news is his career-best Beyer was on AQU Inner Dirt and also posted his only win here; super-repeat trainer but project this one pressing the inside speed wide. - Art Gropper

Race 6

Verbosity

Makes his way back to the statebred ranks after getting beaten as the chalk earlier this month at the trip; he's winless from 9 career inner track spins but he has run well over the strip and with the move to the fence maybe a hard send helps him make the top in a field that doesn't contain a whole bunch of speed; consider.

El Grande Patron

Didn't do much in his return to the inner and a couple of these beat him rather handily in that one; maybe he's better second back from the break and he does own a local score, but don't know that he's good enough to go on late with these.

Cay to Pomeroy

Steps up for his first off the barn's claim after wiring an overmatched conditioned claiming bunch; he'll cut back to the trip of the near miss 2 back while stepping in to face fellow statebreds in this spot and his lick should help him get involved from the bell; pace player is one to consider in his current form.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

Returns at the level after wiring a similar bunch while being allowed to set moderate splits; though he may be better on the green he does handle the inner just fine and he showed on the Belmont green that he can rally from off the pace which could help him in here.

Nearly There

Didn't get off the to the best start while trying better in his return to this venue, but he also didn't do much running at all after that; 8 year old did run ok prior to that at Finger Lakes but he was facing softer fields than he'll catch in this spot; have to pass on him today.

Bug Juice

Six year old has banked close to half a million in his career and though he's not what he once was and hasn't been very good at all of late, he'll catch his softest bunch in some time here; ran into a fast one second back from the break after being placed well over his head 2 back against stakes runners; wouldn't be surprised to see him take a big step forward to contend for the top spot against this bunch.

Sportswriter

Didn't have enough at odds on when moved to this level off the claim last time and now his prior outfit has him back; guy who beat him last time returns as well and maybe the pace scenario is a little different this time; price will be better on a gelding who was defeated as the public choice in each of his last 3 starts, but it's been a long time since he's won; talented bug aboard will get him a weight break today.

Won Great Classic

Eight year old has earned 6 of his 7 career scores over this strip and now he'll drop in for a tag; his effort to beat better 2 back was excellent and with the regression behind him maybe he's ready to get back to it here; thinking he'll prove to be the one to hold off.

Taxplayer

Goes first time for a new barn after tiring from his pace efforts against better; bug named will get him a weight break and he does own recent numbers that would put him in the exotics mix today; outside tracking trip should give him the chance to prove he can step here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Jackson N Lorimer

Shot down in a speed duel first time out last summer, a key affair, he has been breezing in moderate fashion for the return; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.76 million; the dam went 2 for 10 earning 80K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Hard Fast Cash

Legit excuse to that first defeat and he returns with Lasix and an improved slot; his sire won the G1 King's Bishop and 2.67 million; the dam did not compete; among the winning siblings is 227K earner Nashi.

Giant Fox

Newcomer was sired by multiple G1 victor Giant's Causeway who banked 3.07 million (his descendants have scored in 10 percent of their debuts); the dam went 3 for 11 earning 102K; winning siblings include 356K earner Gangbuster.

Ferlin Husky

A fine try a month ago when losing in the final strides but he got away with a very soft pace along the way and that does not seem possible with all the speed surrounding him now; ran well via rating tactics 2 back and has expert connections in his corner.

Onthewhistle

On the engine last time and it was a tremendous try considering the pace and the fact that he lost to a repeat winner; if he can handle this inner dirt surface as well, he could be long gone; no such juicy odds today, however.

Brendan G

Pressed the issue when trying a route for the first time last month; he has been a consistent sprint performer and draws particularly well this afternoon, to the outside flank of the known main speeds; worth some exotic wagering inclusion based on that fact.

Donttellyourmother

Beginner was sired by G2 winner Put It Back who captured 232K (his progeny have won 53 out of 414 initial starts); the dam won 1 of 5 and 7K; this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate.

Smarty Burns

Decent showing in his first try over this winter course and he should receive a much quicker pace in this spot; makes only his second outing with blinkers and could prove to be the right value play in this open affair.

Golden Doc

Offspring of Consolidator, who won a G1 and 661K overall, have scored in 16 out of 227 initial races; the dam went 4 for 36 earning 118K; among the winning siblings is 146K earner Brush Creek Honey.

Retire Fifty Five

Sired by Raven's Pass who won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 3.65 million (his progeny are zero for 7 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 2 of 11 and 78K; sib to 154K earner Quillian; steady set of half-mile breezes on view.

Handstand

Take a look at Hard Fast Cash, above, for same sire information; this gelding's dam lost her only race; winning siblings include 31K earner Attempted; fair training track pattern on view but a tough post to overcome.

Perfect Stormy

Best a.m. move was on 2/1; his sire won 6 of 15 and 148K (descendants of the prolific Stormy Atlantic have won 105 out of 900 debuts); the dam won multiple G2s and 541K; sib to 272K earner Fight Spirits.

Metro Dreamer

Brave in defeat second time out when catching a fast track; his sire won multiple G1s and 669K while the mom won 2 of 14 and 270K; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Spider Dust; consider as a major stalking possibility if getting to the starting gate.

Secret Ops

Showed little firepower first time out when trounced by Metro Dreamer but turned in a fine blowout since; his sire won a G1 and 570K; the dam went 3 for 8 earning 64K: winning siblings include 199K earner Enumerate. - Jim Kachulis

Perfect American

His sire won two-thirds of the Triple Crown and 7.61 million (offspring of Smarty Jones have scored in 31 out of 227 initial appearances); the dam was without a tally in 8 attempts; sib to 141K earner Tech Fall.

Race 8

Otoy

Was beaten in double digits in each of his last three outings, all in stakes; this N1X/optional event will be his first two-turn start on the dirt; probably needs some additional class relief before he gets back on the competitive track.

Louisiana Flyboy

Louisiana-bred finished a lapped on second in an identical event Dec. 22--that four-horse race has yet to yield a next-out winner (the victor was subsequently unplaced in a pair of stakes); Jose Ortiz has landed Village Warrior, and his new rider is 2 for 14 at the meet for the powerful Chad Brown barn; in the mix.

Street Gent

Finished up the track in the exciting showdown between Samraat and Uncle Sigh when he returned from a two-month break in the G3 Withers; that was his debut outside the maiden ranks, and this is a more realistic spot; Maragh is 1 for 4 at this stand aboard Gyarmati charges; contender.

Village Warrior

Prevailed in his second attempt against $50K maidens after attending a moderate pace just nine days ago; Jose Ortiz is 1 for 5 at the meet for Eclipse Award winner Pletcher, who has excellent stats with horses exiting a victory; colt is light on Beyers compared to some of the others.

Schivarelli

Didn't have the smoothest of trips when he graduated at first asking in a six-furlong maiden special about a month ago; the average win distance of the sire's progeny is 6.5 furlongs; the dam was a sprinter who produced the stakes-winning sprinter B C's Train ($105K); trainer/rider duo is 3 for 14 at this stand; a wild card.

Oltre' Oro

Crushed $50K maidens on the front end when he reached out to a mile second-time out five weeks ago, earning a big 83 Beyer in the process; has since worked a bullet for the hot trainer Rice, who's won at a 27% clip first-time off the claim on the inner track during the last five years ($2.49 ROI); the one to fear most. - Ron Gierkink

Race 9

Uncle Southern

Cuts back to the graduation distance on grass; beat the 3-back show runner who posted a 79 Beyer speed figure in her next-out BEL-allowance score; there's no shortage of speed in here so the quick breaker could find herself in a fight from the bell given the inside starting point; lightest-weight assignment ever for this; the July turf winner repeated with a 90 Beyer taking a SAR-optional claimer.

Your Time Is Up

Return to the inner produced a field-best Beyer speed figure and win; speed led to that last score but she's proven she doesn't need the top to be effective and her local maiden score did come at this trip; with time to recover from her last and a bullet drill in tow she appears poised to repeat.

Another Page

The front wraps came on for the 1st time ever in last and she faded; the 1st two posts have gate speed which compromises the win hopes 2nd off the claim; beat the 3-back show runner who Beyered 65-63 in next-out AQU-16K-$12,500-claiming wins.

She's Stones Sis

Adds even more gate speed here noting both wins were gate-to-wire; beaten-betting choice in last pair; both wins at much longer distances cutting back to her shortest-stamina test ever; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 67 in her next-out AQU-OPC win; the July-exacta finish looks better since the winner repeated with a 75 Beyer and she beat the show runner a 70 speed figure next-out SAR-OPC winner.

Bit Bustin

Even finish the last time racing at 5.5F; had to like the way she stalked the pace in the 3-back win and with a ton of gate speed signed on inside her should be willing to sit back then make one run; She's Stones Sis beat her 2-back when they chased the runner-up who Beyered 67 in a next-out AQU-OPC win.

Pennymine

Projects for an ideal trip rallying into a hot pace; cuts back to her shortest-distance test ever after the beaten-betting favortie competing on wet tracks in 4 straight; her AQU-Inner graduation was accomplished over a fast oval; neck loss 3-back to the winner who repeated in an AQU-alw. with an 82 Beyer.

Saichi Sweepin

Added blinkers for latest posting her lowest Beyer since March; she has raced very well directly off freshenings previously but showed nothing in latest off a 7-week absence when prompting the pace; last start at today's distance was a wet-track FL win on the lead; projects to press a hot pace wide.

Dee Dee's Comet

Loose on an easy lead in last; she won the race but was DQd and placed 2nd for impeding the runner-up finisher; the wet track was very much to her liking again posting a career-best Beyer 3-back and last wet tracker coming back as a win; she has a good rating gear which comes in handy in a race top heavy with gate speed; obviously would be more willing to back on wet footing than fast; her Nov 17 exacta finish looks better since the winner repeated in an AQU-OPC with a 78 Beyer. - Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Eva Lil

10-0-0-0 record with blinkers on during career but the hood comes back on for this; her November, 2012, 7F-wet-AQU Main track race is her career-best Beyer speed figure; shown zero gate spark in recent starts while in her one-show finish she stalked the speed from 2nd.

Sweetest Side

Leaves an 0-for-5 barn into an AQU-Inner stable who's won twice at the current meet; the long layoff is obviously a concern with a worktab that does not inspire confidence; best Beyer at much longer figures to sit back early then make one run.

Pleasant Shaker

Usually runners improve 2nd-time out but he posted the same single-digit Beyer and would need a massive-form improvement to shock these; obviously the bad trip in latest could be one reason why he did not fire better; at least in his debut race he broke much sharper.

You Take the Cake

Rallied like she could use more than 6F but remains at the distance of her career-best Beyer in July on SAR dirt; obviously a well-timed rally would be needed to score and hopes Tassinaia and Rufus Ruth duel each other into defeat which would help her late punch.

Tassinaia

Projects to race on or near the lead with Rufus Ruth; exits her best Beyer since the career-best speed figure last summer at BEL; best game is to be forwardly placed and off latest seems the one to catch and beat; willing to excuse the 2-back wet-track loss she's best on fast footing.

Signora Sofia

Tough beat at 32-1 odds on the wrong end of a 3-horse win photo finish; obviously blinkers have made a huge difference 2-back a new Beyer Top and in last a near-miss finish; another who wans the speed to fall apart late because she figures to be flying in deep stretch.

Rufus Ruth

Has never been on the lead in her career but projects to be part of the pace with Tassinaia in a race lacking defined-gate speed; maybe if she sits right off the likely pacesetter she would be better served; her field-best Beyer was posted on grass at 1F longer than this; dangerous.

Today Not Tommorow

Outsider here off 6 consecutive double-digit length defeats; removed blinkers for last without a repsonse posting her 4th straight zero Beyer; was not impressed by the worktab for this off a 10-week freshening; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Tricky Tiffany

The 6th and 7th-place finishers from last Beyered 57-38 in next-out AQU-PRX-20K-10K-maiden-claiming wins; long layoff for this longshot with 12 straight double-digit length defeats; in 3 other dirt sprints she did not beat 1 runner home.

Lady C Note

Been best at longer distances than 6F; she did not offer any stamina in latest which prompts the cutback to the shortest-distance test ever; trainer is 1-for the last-37 route-to-sprint but this one figures to be helped; 3rd time in career she has been widest drawn. - Art Gropper