Aqueduct
Aqueduct: Closer Looks for February 15, 2014
Race 1
| Lemme Rock |
| Tries winners for the first time after beating fellow statebreds to break her maiden second time over the inner; gal drawn to her immediate outside here did beat her handily 2 back but she looks to be the speed of this heat and moving to the fence should only help encourage her early kick; they'll have to run her down to win. |
| Andromeda's Risk |
| Looked good upsetting statebreds first out over the track before offering little against winners a few weeks back; filly picks up some weight for this but maybe she's set to bounce back with the regression behind her and she did run down the gal to her inside here at a slightly shorter trip than they'll tackle today. |
| My Jimmy Chew Girl |
| Filly was in over her head in the route stake last time, but she should be tighter from the effort and now she'll return to a one turn trip that she likes; softer bunch certainly helps, but concerned that her lack of lick doesn't play out so well in a field with a likely lone front runner and she could find herself with a lot to do late; consider. |
| Pinch Me Again |
| Got her nose down to score after encountering plenty of trouble in her debut run earlier in the month; filly was taken out of the effort by a barn that hasn't done so well either with this type of at the stand and she'll take on winners here, but she does have a right to move forward with the initial experience behind her. |
| Rock Me Mama |
| Field's highest Beyer earner has been idle since earning that distinction with the route score in her first crack over the inner strip; new barn excels with its newly claimed runners first time under their care and she's shown enough early interest routing to stay in touch with the pacesetter here; main danger. |
| Front Cover Dream |
| First part of the entry lands in a protected spot after earning a career best number over the track last time out; she sat a great trip behind the front runners in that one and wasn't able to capitalize so don't know that she's going to be able to handle this better bunch; have to pass on her. |
| Brown Mellisa |
| Barn's other half enters this off a maiden score in which she overcame a terrible start to run away for her 5 foes; she's certainly improved since moving to the inner track and maybe a clean trip helps her keep going, but she'll tackle a much better bunch today and will need to improve significantly from a figure standpoint to threaten. - Jim Kachulis |
Race 3
| Saratoga Shoes |
| Figures to help set the pace off her first-out maiden score going short nearly a month ago; sire was a stakes-winning sprinter who was unplaced going long; unraced dam has thrown two route winners on the main track from as many starters; Weaver, who's had a solid meet, won a G3 stakes last weekend at Gulfstream. |
| Mlle. Minuit |
| Earned some black type when third behind favored Flipcup and Champagne Ruby in the restricted East View; has since worked twice and is an excellent fit in this optional event for state-breds; closer has some speed to chase, and could be along in time if the track isn't speed-favoring. |
| Underthemoonlight |
| Finished up the track after a stalking trip in a six-furlong dash at this level following a break Jan. 23; daughter of Golden Missile has a blend of speed and stamina in her pedigree; trainer hit with 9% of his first-time routers over the past five years ($2.84 ROI); others have more appeal. |
| Storied Lady |
| Only got a 45 Beyer when she trounced maiden special rivals in her first two-turn attempt Jan. 19; homebred will have to take her game to another level if she's to make an impact in this optional event; the hot bug Rice inherits the mount from Franco, who's sticking with Underthemoonlight. |
| G Note |
| Couldn't keep up while saving ground after being bet down to about 3-1 in the East View Stakes, which came on the heels of her seven-length maiden romp; would win this race on pedigree--the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro is out of a G2 winner who's produced stakes winner Mineralogist and stakes-placed Risk a Chance; can get back on track with leading rider Irad Ortiz taking over. - Ron Gierkink |
Race 4
| Dynamic Chime |
| Can't be thrilled with the beat vs. softer two back; he has been beaten double digits every single time and apparently he's not much of a work horse; 1/12 place horse graduated next out in a maiden $16K seller with a 48 Beyer; not seeing it. |
| Shelby Dean |
| Educated in the debut, solid try in first miler, may not have liked the synthetic, but was 5 clear in last and has the race over the inner to draw from now; the sibling to win took 2 sprints; miss seems well intentioned. |
| Gallant Lady |
| She has improved since being sent long; backers can hang their hat on fact top kin Lady Contender took a stakes, won routing and earned nearly $100K; another slice? |
| Steve Came Thru |
| This is probably a better distance for her; note she was nearly 8 clear in the 2nd career outing; with her style, backers have to hope they go fast early and the race falls apart. |
| Prince Raja |
| Hung wide in the debut, but wonder how high expectations can be for this $2K purchase?; dam was 0 for 2; lone full sister lost thrice; could see him showing more speed, not sure he'll be around at the end. |
| King Gettigan |
| The King picked it up with the blinks in last; dam out of the money in only out; 1 of 4 siblings won and that runner cashed once sprinting; hot bug hired and the pilot is 6 for 14 for this barn this meet; look out. |
| Brilliant Einstein |
| Smart guy has not shown much so far; 4 for 42 dam earned over $100K, took one route; this is her first to roll; has some things to iron out. |
| Prophet's Cat |
| Back to the original pilot but he's stopped badly now twice; half of dam's 6 wins were routes; all 3 siblings were successful routers in the minor leagues; must pick it up. |
| Shipwrecked |
| He must be given legit look on the drop alone; with blinks, a good ploy for this barn, he could also be keener to run early on; dam took one sprint; lone half bro took one sprint; show horse in last took a MSW and the winner repeated in an N1X fray; if he can run at all, he figures to show it here. - Brian Mulligan |
Race 5
| Divine Child |
| Positive 2-pound weight swing off the troubled-head loss vs. Frazil posting a new-career-Top Beyer speed figure in his return to AQU Inner Dirt; has won at longer than 1Mile and 70 yards during career and today will be able to save all the ground then make one run; the 3-back show runner Beyered 81 in his next-out PRX-optional claimer; he beat the August show runner who took a DEL-50K event next out with an 87 then Beyered 90 in a next-out BEL-100K stakes win; dangerous. |
| Denn Piper |
| Late closer seems up it against in a race lacking a lot of gate speed; 1-for-17 before latest last-to-1st win; tough to expect a repeat performance in this much-tougher spot facing multiple winners; the December victor repeated in an AQU-$12,500 claimer with a 74 Beyer. |
| Artie Luvsto Party |
| 48 days away for a high-percentage trainer 1st time out with newly-acquired runners; was way off best form pre-rest and 0-for-5 since claimed off Jacobson from a BEL-Mile win; the 3-back runner-up finisher won his next 3 starts with 94-94-88 Beyers taking a pair of 100K-plus stakes; December, 2011, won an allowance over a wet-AQU Inner Dirt oval which why latest dull effort in the slop was so disappointing. |
| Washington's Rules |
| Loves wet footing which why latest mud victory was expected when claimed by a high-percentage trainer with this angle; he was also entered Friday in a similar-AQU starter allowance event at longer 1M and 1-16th; 3-back winner at today's distance over the track; is the more appealing off the Jacobson coupling with Reserved Quality. |
| Frazil |
| Enters off 4 consecutive exacta finishes; he figures to be a force from bell to finish in a field lacking defined-gate speed; the 3-back winner repeated in an AQU-starter alw. with a 91 Beyer; 2 back was game to beat DIvine Child but gets a negative 2-pound weight swing for this off a head win; posted the field's best Beyer speed figure April, 2011, in a 6.5-AQU-Main starter-handicap romp.. |
| Metaurus |
| Has not won past 6.5F yet; June 2012, a 14K-claimer in a BEL-6,5F dirt race was his last victory; is 0-for-6 in races at today's distance or longer; removed blinkers for just the 2nd time in career in latest fading behind similar rivals but posted his best Beyer since June; view as a pace presence for part. |
| A. P. Cino |
| Dueled into defeat in last noting his most-recent wins were produced from stalking trips; is a major-pace presence here trying to make amends off 2 favored losses; he was 4-5 odds when losing 2-back in his only AQU-Inner Dirt start; today gets in with his heaviest assignment since November while his latest victory was with an apprentice carrying 114 pounds. |
| Five Freedoms |
| All 4 wins at FL but clearly a good sign that he outran the 30-1 odds in his 1st race over the track producing an exacta finish and career-best Beyer speed figure; the added distance here can help as it's the stamina test of his last win; the 2-back show runner Beyered 79 in his next-out AQU-$12,500 claiming win. |
| Herbal Prospector |
| Has won on the lead before but figures to setup just outside of Frazil, AP CIno and Five Freedoms then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; today's 123-pound assignment is the heaviest of career; 1 year ago posted his career-best Beyer in an FG-15K claiming win at 6Fon dirt. |
| Kings Village |
| Latest-light Beyers make him an outsider vs. this group; last win was by a nose stalking the pace in a November, 2012, PEN dirt 1M and 1-16th-5K claimer; shown nothing in 3 races over the AQU Inner Dirt; a tough call. |
| Reserved Quality |
| Has never raced longer than 1 Mile ever in career while not won past 6.5F; gets a sharp 1st-off-the-claim trainer who also has him entered Friday in a similar-AQU starter allowance event at longer 1M and 1-16th; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 93 in his next-out SAR-25K-claiming win; was taken off a sprint win on a wet-main track snapping a 6-race losing streak on non-fast footing. -Art Gropper |
Race 6
| Unafraid |
| Firster lands into a very soft line-up today and should be a force with alert getaway from the fence; her sire won 3 of 16 and 140K; progeny of Western Expression have won 14 of 236 debuts; the dam was zero for 9 and this is her only foal to start. |
| Lucky Seven |
| Blinker addition last week did not seem to help matters so she drops several rungs down the ladder today; her sire won multiple G1s and 7.61 million; the dam won 5 of 48 and 161K; sib to 90K earner Rebel Raider. |
| Confederate Bay |
| Her best effort was over the frozen tundra of Finger Lakes last November; she has shown little enthusiasm over this surface and the return to her own gender today will probably not matter; pass for now. |
| Pari Nath |
| She has some gate speed in her favor and perhaps the cutback in distance will help matters; gets in very light but still have doubts she can handle this major distance transition effectively; minor spoils possible though. |
| Promise Me Forever |
| Yet to earn an exacta finish but she has been clearly over-matched in several of her starts; tries this low level for the first time and may not be that far off the modest pace that is projected today; betting value should be there. |
| Keen On Green |
| Failed to get motivated first time out but she switches to a top apprentice now; the filly's undefeated sire won the G1 Carter Handicap and 480K in total; the dam won 1 of 13 and 20K; among the winning siblings is 30K earner Flag Handler. |
| Optimistic Cat |
| Failed each time while huge odds and although she did not have a smooth trip in the last defeat, the song will likely remain the same this afternoon; cannot endorse until much more firepower is shown. |
| Halos and Angels |
| Legitimate excuse in that first loss and she can rebound here against this light crew; her sire won 2 of 26 and 42K; the mom won 3 of 39 and 55K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; worth some follow-up. |
| Heartfelt Jazz |
| Earned checks each time and this outer post should pose no serious problem because of the pace nature of the field; earned a personal best Beyer over a wet-fast track, a likely course condition if scheduled snowstorm arrives in time. - Jim Kachulis |
Race 7
| Sally's Dream |
| She has drilled a couple of times since being eased; miss has some stakes experience to draw from here and she was game in the win two back; she has been consistent in her career and her tactical speed gives her a chance to get first run on the deep closers; try to get a good look at her on the track. |
| Dreaming of Cara |
| Two of 3 wins came on the inner; she has been win challenged of late, and she did lose a little ground late in the last 2 efforts; off the rail here, out to make amends for the flop as chalk. |
| Lunar Surge |
| Fully extended in the win and she held her own vs. winners when tons the best of rest; there seems to be enough speed here to help promote the kick and Weaver has been firing on all cylinders; respect. |
| Ezpz Lemon Squeeze |
| At least she got a feel of the inner; it took her about 3 weeks to post the next recorded drill and then there was a gap till 2/1; place horse in last won next out in a $16K claimer, then ran 2nd twice; may need softer to shine. |
| Gloria Victoria |
| Only one off effort and that came on grass; she put in a solid middle move to go from 5th to first in last and just kept going; like fact she has natural speed but can settle and kick; repeat well within the realm. |
| Voodoo Tales |
| Switch to the bug and the stretch out worked to perfection in last; 4th finisher in last took a $35K N2L claimer and the 5th finisher took a $12.5K N3L claimer; trainer spotted them just fine last year with limited starters; contention goes deep in a good betting race. |
| Dattts Da Boss |
| Lone win came on grass; sent along in last, but he may be better off settling just off the pace; place horse in last won next out in a $35K N2L claimer here last Sunday with a 65 Beyer; would think long and hard before taking too short a number. |
| Hot Splash |
| Versatility may be her best asset; she has shown she can come from well back, win on the lead, or track and succeed; trainer can keep them going good once they get good to the tune of 34%; another effort like the last one and she will be a handful. - Brian Mulligan |
Race 8
| Gourmet Dinner |
| Was a disappointment in his 25-length loss in a Sunshine Millions stakes that was essentially a paid workout for the mighty Mucho Macho Man; 6yo was recently reunited with Brown, who won a 100-grander with him in 2012 at Monmouth; trainer/rider combo is 4 for 20 at the meet; unlikely in his inner track debut. |
| Percussion |
| Half-brother to derby prospect Uncle Sigh earned a fat 106 Beyer when a lapped-on second in a recent stakes going a sixteenth shorter than this one; need-the-lead type has the swift Mail to deal with here if he employs his usual style--could this contest turn into a match race, or will they set the table for somebody else? he should hit the board as an underlay. |
| Front-runner took the mile and a sixteenth Traskwood Stakes over a decent field in his last outing about six weeks ago; Brown has won at a huge 35% clip with 31-60 day comebackers exiting a victory during the last five years ($2.45 ROI); don't think that he can survive a speed duel battle with the steady Percussion. |
| Don Dulce |
| Hasn't found the mark since he was claimed for $100K in September, but ran second in four of his five starts since then, which included several stakes; 6yo is jumping up off the $75K claim here by Friedman, who has an 11% strike-rate first-time off the claim in the last five years ($1.44 ROI); on the edges. |
| Jonesy Boy |
| Edged out Don Dulce for the win in the Dec. 14 Queen's County Stakes traveling this nine-furlong distance, but was a distant fourth behind Percussion most recently; lightly-raced 5yo will have to bring his "A" game to make the grade here, and hope that all the speed comes back; not out of the realm of possibility. |
| Farhaan |
| Didn't beat a whole lot in a Dec. 29 stakes for non-stakes winners, but looked good doing it, and the Beyer (92) was good; the runner-up from that race disappointed in his next excursion, but the fifth horse returned to land an optional claimer at Laurel (87 Beyer); can sit an ideal trip behind the speed before going in for the kill; preferred. - Ron Gierkink |