Aqueduct: Closer Looks for December 19, 2013

Race 2

St. Sincere

Has disappointed many times and the cutback in distance is severe; lands into an especially soft group today, however, and if he can dissuade pace foe Papa Doc, or make first run on that one, can earn a major share once again.

Comax Cat

Unlucky lass finally draws a cozy post and had a legit excuse in the latest defeat; his sire won 2 of 9 and 86K while the dam scored in 3 of 19 appearances earning 89K; among the winning siblings is 67K earner Jump for George; can atone.

Prince Curlin

Very hard to recommend regardless of your handicapping point of view; has shown no early speed or closing ability up to now and there is little hope on the horizon; no match for St.Sincere in their last meeting.

Chief Scout

Drops off the claim by an expert trainer; switches to the go-to rider and may be able to stay within range as a result; ideal early position would be third behind battling pacesetters; looks like a comfortable fit today.

Moonlite Encounter

Flashed a bit of improved early zip in his last trouncing while triple-digit odds; most recent training track breeze does not inspire much confidence though and he failed to fire in 2 prior attempts over this inner dirt surface.

Quiet Value

Another member of this line-up who has shown no enthusiasm up to now; despite flashing some gate speed in his last appearance over the IDT, the grey seems destined for another futile run; pass.

Hunter Grey

Tries to stay within striking range in that second attempt but was eased out of contention; his sire won 2 of 7 and 249K while the dam went zero for 3; there are no winning siblings to mention; should upgrade somewhat at this level.

Papa Doc

Looks like the main speed and will prove very dangerous if able to clear off from today's rail runner without difficulty; shorter distance should help as well and he is one of the stronger possibilities.

Go to the Net

Tired in his comeback race but was caught extremely wide in that performance; despite the 27 consecutive losses, some of his best career efforts were over this surface this past winner when he lost by narrow margins twice. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Candy and Thunder

She found herself much farther off the pace than usual last out; fell some 16 lengths back in the early stages and was beaten less than three lengths for everything in a credible effort; the race came against steeper, and she could find herself closer on the move to this level; this will also be her second start in blinkers; the drawback is that she might not get the pace she needs to fuel her run.

Belle Gallantey

She steps back up in class after finishing third against lesser rivals in her most recent start; the race came on a wet track, and she might benefit if the strip is fast; she also would seem to have reason to move forward in what will be her second start since September; is a consistent sort and seems in line for at least a piece.

Roman Invader

She has class appeal as one who faced Grade 1 rivals three starts ago; she's also the highest earner in the field with a bankroll of $307K; is spotted to make an impact with the move to this level, and suspect she might be benefit if the strip is fast as her best recent race came over such a surface; on a company line note, the runner-up from the race she exits returned in her next start to win a $16K optional claimer at Aqu by more than seven lengths, with a Beyer Figure of 90; a concern is that the distance could be a tad less than optimum for this at present, but she is still a win candidate.

Masasi

She could prove to be the controlling speed in a race that does not appear to have an abundance of pace; she also should be sharp on the move from five and a half furlongs to six panels; tackles runners more experienced than her, but owns the field's best last-race Beyer Figure; she's also a full sister to Custom For Carlos, a multiple Grade 3-winning sprinter who earned $483K; leading contender.

P J's Superego

She has more natural speed than we've seen from her of late, and suspect she might again be bidding from off the pace as she will be shortening up in distance from seven-eighths of a mile to six panels; was a stakes winner at 2; one who can share.

Love Contract

She returns to the overnight ranks after facing stakes rivals in her most recent start; note the winner of the race she exits returned in her next start to take the $150K Lady in Waiting at Pen with a Beyer Figure of 83; this one might have a tactical advantage as she can be closer to the pace than a number of these, perhaps getting a tracking trip off Masasi; this one also could be sitting on a peak race in her third start since August; candidate to complete the exacta or trifecta at a price. - Mary Rampellini

Race 4

Andromeda's Coming

Filly gets back in with open company after her third eighth place finish in as many career starts; maybe the Lasix helps and she does move to the inside slot for her second crack on dirt, but off what she's shown so far it's tough to make much of a case for her today.

High Inflation

She's had plenty of chances, but she has hit the board in 6 straight starts, albeit all at one turn; expect she'll be closer early from here on he stretchout and the barn has had some recent success with its quick returnees; filly is kin to a couple of multiple route winners and she's finished in the money in each of her 3 inner track spins; maybe she's finally found the right spot.

See See See

Statebred was beaten just over 5 lengths at the local trip last week, earning a number that does fit in here; her overall form is not very good and she's had plenty of chances, but if she is able to run back to that last one she can get in the mix with this soft bunch.

Bounty Pink

She's been away nearly 7 months since dropping in price for her first start off this outfit's claim and failing to finish the course in her turf debut; they'll return her in a weak route heat while again dipping her down the class ladder; sire was a champion sprinter so don't know that this gal is going to love the route and she'll certainly take money in here, but her one turn numbers would be good enough if she were to repeat them at this trip; contender.

Simplie Sinister

Returns from the freshening off several weak efforts to behind her career; mare will tackle 2 turns for the first time in this dirt heat and her dam did drop a couple of route winners including G2 SW sprinter and 377K earner Cativa, but can't side with her in this spot.

Lovely Athena

Boasts an ugly, troubled first out running line against statebreds and now she'll try open company on the stretchout; maybe the hood helps and the low precentage outfit does boast a recent second out winner; filly is kin to a route winner as well, but even with a clean run she'll need to improve significantly to factor in the outcome.

Lady C Note

Filly ran ok on this circuit first time out and after a couple of non-efforts she did get back on track a bit at Penn National; don't know that routing is going to be her best game, but she does have a right to be better second time at 2 turns and she couldn't have caught a much softer field for her first over the inner.

Bebes Passion

Outside drawn filly has lost 22 times and she didn't have much to offer in the slop last time; her effort 2 back wasn't bad, but her dirt numbers don't fit so well in this heat; have to side with others for the money spots. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Sandy's Secret

Offspring of Tippity Tap, who went zero for 4 in his career, are zero for 1 as far as winning their first race; the dam won 1 of 17 starts and 32K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; modest work tab on view.

Possetivevibration

Woke up with a fine placing when dropping to this level earlier in the month; she made 2 moves in that placing and should be within range here as another soft early pace seems in the cards; worth following up.

Hangingwithsonny

Did not seem to handle the inner dirt surface in her first try; may not have cared for the wet-fast conditions and could upgrade suddenly over a dry track; ran into repeat winners 2 and 3 races back; curious item at generous odds.

Heartfelt Jazz

She turned in a solid first showing despite traffic trouble; her sire won multiple G1s and 971K while the dam won 6 of 28 and 145K; among the winning siblings is 135K earner Boowoogeemalia; doubles up but still cannot be discounted.

Lucky Nancy E.

Right behind Possetivevibration last time out but had to deal with a wide post and racing path in that performance; may be able to work out a better trip here and the trainer/jockey combination involved often win at a healthy price.

Fancy 'n Flight

After 3 performances, there is not much to recommend or to highlight; she failed to make any impact against some of these same opponents in her most recent test and seems up against it once again; cannot endorse.

Very Precious

Firster hails from 163K winner One Nice Cat whose progeny have won 5 of 70 debuts; the dam won 2 of 10 and 34K; among the winning sibs is 43K earner One Red Cat; could prove to be the right new face in open affair.

Backyard Birdie

Beginner was sired by Birdstone, a multiple G1 winner on the NYRA circuit, who captured 1.57 million; his descendants are 20 for 230 as far as winning their first attempt; the dam lost her only race; sib to 55K bankroller Summer Place to Be. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Physical Delivery

She made a rare start on the turf last out and was eased when facing steeper rivals; has had time to regroup since the start as this will be her first race since June; shows some forward works for her return, and note barn wins at an above average rate with its comebackers; one to preview in the paddock.

Opalite

She's another returning from an extended layoff for a barn that does well with comebackers; moves back to dirt after a turf start and note her maiden win came over the inner track; also has class appeal as one who has spent her career facing steeper; one who can at least share.

Blossom's Trail

She made her first start on dirt last out and picked up her fourth career win, making her the most accomplished member of the field; stretches back out in distance and should be sharp for the task following the seven-furlong race; could be quite prominent against these, and note she also owns one of the field's best last-race Beyer Figures; leading contender.

Peggy Virginia

She dominated maiden claiming rivals last out at Aqu and now meets more experienced rivals; there is a chance she could regress in her first start against winners, which can often be the case with horses; in her favor is the fact that her confidence must be soaring right now.

Dattts Da Boss

She's a consistent sort; was second last out to a winner who returned in her next start to take a $50K optional claimer at Bel, with a Beyer Figure of 87; the company line bodes well for this one; the question here is surface, as she will be moving to dirt after a series of turf starts that have produced her best Beyer Figures; class runner is a leading contender.

Concealed

She ran a strong race last out, when she set the pace over a laboring kind of track and was edged by a nose; might benefit if the track is fast as one of her wins came over such a surface; makes a notable step up in class, and like others in this spot, she can share.

Girl Code

The blinkers come back off following a one-race experiment and note both of her wins came without the equipment; showed speed sprinting last out and on the move to two turns could take these a long way on the lead; also like that she has seen some steeper rivals in recent times; appears to be a win candidate. - Mary Rampellini

Race 8

Superior Sarah

Mare likes this layout; over 3 clear in fine effort in last, miss doesn't have to be 6th early on today; cozy slot and the winner 10/17 repeated in a $100K stakes; rates long look in all the slots.

La Verdad

Bothered early in the inner strip debut but a monster since; she can handle any kind of going and last race came back fine; place horse took a $35K optional next out and the 5th finisher took a $50K optional on 12/5; check out the best of 142 move on the 8th; she towers over these in the Beyer department; it's her race to lose.

Darling Bridezilla

Runner was 7th beaten over 31 lengths in the other try on the inner when going a mile; miss brings a nice stalk and pounce style to the table and she comes to this race relatively fresh; could see her sitting a bit further back this time and then trying to run them all down; not impossible task.

Jonata

Only in the money once since the lone win and she didn t scare the winner that day; Merry Meadow exited the last race to cash next out at this very level with an 84 Beyer; he did graduated in the second off the layoff run; value should be there.

Cubicle Queen

Connections gave her a shot in the stakes but she gave up the ghost quickly; miss could have just been overmatched; proven on the inner and she has only been beaten to the first call once and that was by a head; needs a rebound run.

Seasoned Warrior

She ran too good to lose now twice in a row; her stalk and pounce style will give her first run on the deep closers and at least she has drilled a couple of times since the last effort; miss has a right to grow into her skin as kin Hide and Chic was Grade 3 placed at 5 and banked nearly $450K.

Tiz Teresa

Pressed and faded badly in last and considering the cut back, she could be left with a ton of work to do late; she has to prove she can win on dirt and she is looking at much more speed today; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Matching Skies

Miss may need softer to shine; lone win this year was against $16K foes at the shore against a small field; she has only run a big race once since; she has lost ground in the lane in every race since the last win; not seeing it.

Native One

The fact she freaked in the debut gives her a chance to fire fresh; hung wide in the June swoon but the place horse that day cashed twice since, the last in a $62.5K optional with a 78 Beyer; blowout last Saturday should have her on his toes; rates legit longshot glance here. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Moravitz

His turf start 2-back represents the field's best Beyer speed figure; one dirt start represents a career-low number but faced the runner-up finisher that day who Beyered 39 in his next-out SUF-MSW win; 47 days idle for a high-percentage fresh trainer; saves every inch of ground then should be tough to hold off in deep stretch.

Muscles Marinara

Exits a career-low Beyer when troubled following an exacta finish; which horse shows up for this with mixed reviews since the June claim; the 3-back winner Beyered 84 in his next-out AQU-30K-claiming event; another who wants to save as much ground possible then rally with one-big run.

Harry Consolidator

Offered brief speed the last time going long; seeks his 1st in-the-money finish racing 2nd time off a long layoff where he passed a few posting his best Beyer since his career-best number; main issue he defeated just 5 runners combined in 4 prior AQU-Inner Dirt defeats.

Commodus

Bet hard in his 1st race off the claim but broke last was troubled then rallied too late; sire won the Kentucky Derby-Preakess and Haskell so he should appreciate the added yardage for this; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 37 in his next-out FL-$4,500-maiden-claiming graduation.

Privatize

Was outfinished when favored at a shorter distance in latest which is the biggest issue today chasing Dapper Draper from the gate; cuts the price tag in half with mixed reviews from his recent races since removing blinkers; the 3-back winner repeated with an 86 Beyer taking a BEL-optional claimer beating the show runner in the mud an 81-BEL-MSW next-out graduate.

Douro

Has not raced past 7F yet; sire was Grade 1-placed at 1M on dirt but went 0-for-4 in dirt routes all graded stakes events; is the 1st foal out of a dam who's only win was at 1M on the grass finishing 4th in her only dirt route; the debut winner and show finishers Beyered 75-71 in next-out SAR-25K-maiden claiming and 20K-claiming wins.

Fastinov

Did not offer much run in 2 other races on AQU Inner Dirt but wokeup some in last when earning his 1st-ever dirt in-the-money finish; turf winner 3-back on the lead but was DQ'd for impeding another rival and has Dapper Draper to contend with from the gate today; hopes to sit just off the speedy Dapper Draper then get 1st run on the closers.

Do It for Dennis

Strong 2nd-time improvement when moved to dirt but lacked the finishing punch after stalking the speed; worked a gate-bullet for this and with just 2 races during career he still has some upside; will need to show more stamina adding distance onto latest.

Fiddlers Chico

Willing to dismiss latest as it was 1st start on a wet-main track; was bet hard against lesser in last but came up empty; form has tailed off since the September-turf loss when on the wrong end of a 3-horse win-photo finish; new rider off to an 0-for-17 on the Inner Dirt is his 6th different pilot in as many races which is not a good win angle.

Dapper Draper

Try to catch me; he held on very well in March when sent this far then did the same in latest a race he likely needed off an 8-week absence; best form has been with blinkers off and they will be removed for this start; a great sign that the rider from first trio who has sizzled at the current meeting stays right here.- Art Gropper