Aqueduct: Closer Looks for December 18, 2013

Race 2

Purling

She can be closer to the pace than she found herself last time, when she stumbled at the start; she also could be more of a forward factor in her second out following the freshening; owns some of the field's most consistent Beyer Speed Figures; can share.

Evasive Cat

She appears to have more natural speed than most of these, and has a shot to control the tempo if she shakes Missed Count at the start; has an age edge on that one, as well as most of her other rivals in this spot; like that she's been favored in each of her last two races, and she appears to be a win candidate.

Violet Hour

She gives up recency to all of these as she has not seen action since July; this will be her first start in North America, her first start on dirt, and her first start on Lasix; distance here might be a bit less than optimum for her, but it's a logical starting point for her first race since the summer.

Blue Sixty Four

She steps up in claiming price, but like that she has an age edge on all of these as she is 5; she also is a winner over the inner track, and only one other horse can claim to be the same, and that is Evasive Cat; one of several who can share.

Missed Count

She made her first start in two months last out and ran a solid second; the race was also her first against winners and note the third-place finisher from it returned to dominate a $16K conditioned claimer at Tam, earning a Beyer of 55; can be closer to the pace than she found herself last time, perhaps showing the way in this spot or tracking Evasive Cat; has a tactical post, the field's best last-race Beyer Figure, and is a win candidate.

Heiressofthecrown

She's back in the overnight ranks after a start against restricted stakes company and note the third-place finisher from the race returned in her next out to take the $100K Fickle Fanny at Aqu, with a Beyer Figure of 80; as for this one, she's back facing older rivals after running with straight 3-year-olds last time; this will also be her second start in blinkers; is a winner on dirt, but feel she could prove to be at her best on turf. By Mary Rampellini

Race 3

Samraat

He looks like the one to beat; he's paired up dazzling front-running wins in his two career starts, and has a good chance to control the pace in this spot, the one concern being Geaux Mets; owns the field's best career Beyer Figures, has had a chance to work over the inner track, and will also be second Lasix; on a pedigree point, he's a half-brother to three stakes-placed winners, including the Grade 3-placed Screen Legend; choice.

Forever Utopia

He's a maiden facing winners, but he brings consistent form to the table as he's been second in his last three starts; makes the turf-to-dirt move for barn that wins at an above average rate with such a surface switch; as for his last start, he set pace over a laboring course and was beaten just a head in a solid effort; can share.

Howaboutwe

He gets a rematch with Samraat, who he finished fourth to last out at Aqu when he outran his odds of 76-1; has a nice foundation of races for the distance; is also appealing as a half-brother to Manchurian High, a Grade 2-placed winner of 5 races and $130K; another who can share.

Deceived

January foal is bred to be a good one as a half-brother to both Naughty New Yorker, a Grade 3 winner of 12 races and $1M, and Pupil, a stakes winner of $204K; fired his best race last out when he dominated maiden allowance rivals in the mud; showed improved speed in the race, and might get a nice stalking trip behind Samraat and Geaux Mets; leading contender.

Balderdash

He regressed some last out in his first start against winners and note he faced stakes competition that afternoon; like that he has been a consistent sort as a rule; a question here is surface as he will be making his first out on dirt after racing exclusively on turf; dam was a two-time stakes winner of $289K; another who can share.

Geaux Mets

He added blinkers two starts ago and has shown improved speed in his races; might get an ideal tracking trip off of Samraat, who breaks to his inside; is also appealing as a two-time winner taking on less experienced rivals, with the exception of Samraat; further, he's the lone member of the field who can boast a win over the inner track; question marks are two-turns, and wheeling back in a week; capable. By Mary Rampellini

Race 4

Waynesborough

Draws the fence for his first local start while being offered for sale in this spot; gelding hasn't shown any early foot thus far and has yet to run as fast as most of these; maybe the weight break with the capable bug named helps second back from the short freshening, but he's going to need to step things up to have a say in this spot.

Coronate

Understandably tired after tracking the pace in his first route try second time out at Churchill, but he still earned a number that fits well in his local debut; new outfit excels with this type and they do give a leg up to their first call pilot; dam won going long and she dropped a 6 time route winner so expect this guy will improve second time at 2 turns; contender.

Big Sam

Tries dirt for the first time after getting on track too late behind a runaway winners when in for a cheaper price first time back from 10 months on the shelf over the local lawn; they raise him in price for this one and he has been working on dirt this fall so he should be comfortable with the footing; dam dropped a handful of main track winners including G2 SP, SW and 269K earner New Edition; pace should be honest so expect to see him coming in the lane.

Media Kid

Wasn't a threat sprinting at the level here last week and now he'l stretch back out; he was pretty good going long on the lawn hre last month and maybe today's added trip helps, but he has been going the wrong way on the figure scale since leaving the Mott barn after his second career start; dam's foals have been better on the green, though she did drop synthetic G1 SW amd 2.9 million earner Go Between.

Snifter

Drops back in for a tag but remains above the price this outfit paid for him prior to the wide run in shades last out; there's obviously some type of hole in this 875K yearling whose dam dropped a handful of winners including G1 SW router and 646K earner Sweet Symphony, but maybe the stretchout to 2 turns helps move him up some today.

Alysaro

Returns to claimers following a poor main track spin at the MSW level last time; gelding ran well for a tag at one turn off the break 3 back but don't know that the move to 2 turns will help him all that much today; maybe for a minor share.

Horsepower

Showed solid early foot while sprinting from the Laurel fence and didn't have much left for the drive; now he'll try 2 turns for the initial time while also being offered for sale; it's been a while since his debut in a loaded heat on this circuit as a baby and though there's solid route blood on the top half of his pedigree, the dam's side is all sprint; still, wouldn't be surprised to see him make the top in a field without a lot of lick and last a lot longer this time.

Tony D

This outfit took him out of his crosstown debut run and will offer him for a tag for the first time since that beaten chalk effort; gelding hasn't shown much at all against a lot better maidens, but he will try 2 turns on dirt for the first time in this spot; he's kin to some good ones including G1 SW dirt router and 731K earner Composure, so maybe he deserves a shot at this configuration against this field. By Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Sheza Heartbreaker

Not that she's entirely out of the question in this spot, but she just appears to be much sharper racing over turf than she is over dirt, and she hasn't been on top of her game in recent starts; prefer to keep looking around in here.

Mess in a Dress

She's been in pretty good form lately and she might even be able to grab the early lead after breaking from an inside post; don't like to see that she's seeking her first win of 2013 in her 15th start of the year, but she's had success over this surface in the past, and she might benefit from a tactical advantage.

Lady Gracenote

She enters this race fresh off of a stakes placing and viewing the quick turnaround as a sign that her connections feel like she's doing well at the moment; note how well she performed routing over the inner dirt in her first two starts of 2013.

E Z Passer

Her latest start after a layoff can be viewed in a positive light and she's another in here who seems to be at her best racing over the inner dirt; if she feels up to one of her better performances, she can prove to be a threat.

Coast of Sangria

She sports a fine overall race record over dirt, but not thrilled with the form that she's displayed since her most recent claim, and she's yet to prove that she can be at her best over the inner dirt; others entice more.

Persnickity

Have to be at least mildly concerned when it looks like she's been better off sprinting than routing to this point in her career, but she is making her first start for the Jacobson barn, and they see fit to call upon a go-to rider for this.

Sally's Dream

Multiple stakes placed mare sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, and even though that figure was earned over turf, her inner-dirt form has been strong enough to suggest that she can be tough to deal with in this spot; she's had the best year of any of these, and it looks like she put in a solid four furlongs over this surface December 13 in preparation for this. By Brian Pochman

Race 6

King Kongrats

Quick one for 13 the last 5 years with runners going MSW to maiden claiming and 3 others ran in the money; must be given glance on the drop alone; backers can at least say one sibling did succeed once routing; cozier slot here and his best Beyer did come from the Belmont rail; he doesn t hook any monsters here; if he can run at all, he figures to show it today.

Steve Came Thru

The debuting stablemate in the last race ran 5th; 6 for 30 dam banked over $200K, took one dirt route; this is her first to race; if rider is aggressive on the stretch out, runner could get brave.

Dynamic Chime

Not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; he has a lot of work to do to match top kin Cola de Pino, who earned $175K but only won once on grass; at least he got a feel of the inner.

Kingofgoldstreet

Gelding has more speed than he just showed; and he has a chance to show it with the blinks today; nice move on the 4th is a positive sign and the place horse in last graduated in a maiden $50K claimer with a 68 Beyer on 12/13; backers can point to the fact that top kin Golden Causeway took 2 dirt routes, banked over $60K; Ortiz got a chance to figure him out; due.

Ausable River

Contessa 3 for 63 the last 5 years with juveniles going sprint to route; colt drops off the claim but he has a shot to show more speed on the stretch out with blinkers; show horse in last graduated here 1 week ago sprinting with a 74 Beyer in a maiden $20K claimer; 2 for 11 dam earned nearly $45K, both wins came on turf; several winners in the family but they were all sprint only; needs wake up call.

Whirlin

Schosberg 0 for 6 the last 5 years with juveniles going sprint to route but one ran 2nd beaten a neck at 61-1; youngster has beaten 2 horses so far; dam's lone win was a dirt route; lone half sis to race was also out of the money thrice; still in for 5 grand more than purchase price; has some things to iron out.

Pacemakestherace

Considering the winner was clear last time, the race was not all that bad; there is one route winner in the family and a 6-time sprint winner too; fifth new pilot, expect bug to send hard and hope for the best.

Karamojo

Bothered at the break now twice; 3 for 33 dam won routing once, banked almost $50K; all 4 siblings won; 2 cashing routing including stakes placed double route winner and over $80K earner R S Watson; respect these connections and note Castro has had good success for this barn.

Something's Coming

Try to get a good look at this guy on the track after being eased; there is some light if you consider the top kin Junoon graduated routing and earned almost $50K; in light again, hard to see that as the cure all. By Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Driven by Solar

Is 2-for-6 during career with front wraps on they were reapplied 2 races ago; returns to the surface of his December, 2010, career-best Beyer speed figure gate-to-wire at today's distance in an n1x allowance race; exits his best Beyer since June but landied behind similar rivals; wanted no parts of turf 3-back in a key race noting the runner-up and show finishers both Beyered 79 in next-out AQU-BEL-16K-claiming wins.

Dehere of the Cat

Has been best recently on wet-main tracks noting the June-mud win at BEL; exits his lowest Beyer since April when showing nothing at longer; his last dirt sprint was in August when testing the winner who Beyered 91-90 in 2 next-out AQU-BEL-optional-claiming wins.

Special Selection

Has a lot to prove on AQU Inner Dirt as earlier this year defeated 2 runners combined in 2 losses over the track; up-and-down recent turf form noting his 2-back Beyer speed figure-career Top then in last beat 1 runner home; his 4-back grass-sprint loss looks better since the winner repeated with an 83 Beyer; a tough call.

Night Maneuver

1st race off the claim was a win and field-best Beyer speed figure on a wet-SAR main track but is 0-for-4 since exiting a career-low Beyer; 40 days to regroup off latest-dull wide trip; his last race on AQU Inner Dirt was in January when beating the show runner a next-out 76 Beyer AQU-optional-claiming winner; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher posted 104-96 Beyers in next-out AQU-G3 and-OPC wins.

Uncle Smokey

Since the June, 2012, layoff has fired nicely in 5 in a row including the 2-back win rallying well from 5th; he gets a good closer's setup for this while exiting a career-best Beyer; his AQU-Inner Dirt victory was posted January, 2011, in a MSW event at 1M and 70 yards.

Indy Tune

The 1-for-20-fresh trainer coming off a 120-day layoff does not add to the appeal trying to make amends off 3-straight FL-favored losses; latest was his lowest Beyer since September, 2012, on MTH turf at 1 Mile; has been unable to crack an Inner Dirt exacta in 6 prior races here; he was able to win off a 76-day absence in June but is 0-for-4 since claimed off that victory; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Notmyfirstime

Won 4 of first 5 races but is 0-for-5 since posting a June career-best Beyer; have mixed reviews in the 2 races off the August claim; hopes to sit just off the speedy Do I Amuse You and I'm Stoked then get 1st run on the closers; been outfinished in recent losses including by the August-show runner on turf who Beyered 94 in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming win.

Isn'tlovejustgrand

1-for-19 dirt record; his January win over today's surface occurred over a less-than-fast oval and came back as a career-best Beyer scoring in an optional claimer; has been way off best form recently including 2-back when defeated by the winner who repeated with a 90 Beyer taking an AQU-OPC.

Do I Amuse You

Projects to race on or near the lead with I'm Stoked; hopes to shake free of that one then hold off the closers; good race off the 97-day layoff when just missing and seems set to improve 2nd time off the bench; began career on the Inner Dirt while the final yards are always his biggest issue; 2-back victory looks better since the show finisher Beyered 85 in his next-out BEL-optional-claiming score.

Barrel of Love

Eased in latest on turf which has clearly been his preferred surface during career; his last dirt start was in January, 2011, when 8th-beaten more than 15 lengths in an AQU-Inner Dirt Mile and 70 alw. loss; best Beyer on dirt was an allowance race over today's race track December, 2010; would be a complete surprise.

Dan's Gold

His 2 AQU-Inner Dirt wins were in a 30K-maiden claimer and alw. in 2012 which occurred at today's distance when rallying well from midpack; in 2013 has been more of a speedster lacking stamina in recent losses including latest defeat when posting his lowest Beyer since June.

I'm Stoked

Made the lead in all 3 races but has Do I Amuse You to fend off in the early stages today; a long absence since going gate-to-wire in a key race defeating the 5th and 8th-place finishers they Beyered 77-67 in next-out AQU-BEL -16K-claiming wins.

Bubba's Choice

His exacta finish on AQU-Inner Dirt was in the January career-debut facing MSW company racing over a less-than-fast main track; obviously wet footing is to his liking exiting an FL-career best Beyer in the slop; winless since May this late runner gets a good pace flow to rally into for this but would have to up his game to a brand-new level to rally past these in deep stretch. By Art Gropper

Race 9

Slicer Dicer

Best a.m. move was back on 11/20; his sire won 2 of 8 starts and 249K including several graded stakes placings; offspring of Raffie's Majesty have won 10 out of 137 debuts; the dam went zero for 7; among the winning siblings is 182K earner Deputy Ruler.

Chasintheblues

Far behind Escape to the Moon in their recent match-up but he may not have cared for the west-fast footing that day; best efforts have been on the turf and he will have to improve significantly today in order to contend.

Ronnie's Whey

Beginner was sired by G2 sprinter Hook and Ladder who banked 388K and whose progeny have won 32 out of 268 initial starts; the dam was without a victory in 20 tries; sib to 106K earner Roaring Conquest.

Saltine Warrior

Tries a different approach today with the blinker removal; set even fractions when stretched out last time but the previous showing was actually better when middle moving into a secondary position before tiring; playable on the turnback.

D J's Hope

He began his career over this surface turning in a strong second but has not come close to that performance level since; blinker removal may help the cause here as should the latest drill at five-eighths; a healthy price is assured.

Brass Pear

Woke up when dropping down on 13 days ago but it was such an improved performance, that he is worth some consideration here despite the steep climb back to the special weight level; if front-runners have fared well on the card, he may last for a share in this nightcap.

Midnight Missile

Distinct upgrade to the latest gate breeze; his sire won 2.19 million including G1 success; descendants of Golden Missile have won 10 percent of their first races; the dam won 15 of 75 and 144K; sib to 132K earner Midnight Abbey.

Escape to the Moon

Chased all the way around last time but it might be a different story if he can secure the early lead and control matters; must deal with several new faces though and may not warrant such short odds once again; conflicting signals.

Felix

Offspring of Freud, who won 1 of 12 and 44K, have won 11 percent of their first attempts; the dam scored in 2 of 13 appearances and 42K; winning sibs include 137K earner Extinguish; steady intervals to the work tab. By Jim Kachulis