Aqueduct: Closer Looks for December 14, 2013

Race 1

Perfect Disco

Decent breeze pattern for this new face, son of multiple G3 winner Disco Rico who captured 532K (his progeny have won 16 out of 176 debuts); the dam won 7 of 16 and 228K; among the winning siblings is 61K earner Cat Ferrad.

My New Hope

Fair even efforts in the last pair and he has better pace prompting ability than most of his foes today; lands into a very soft field here and may be able to handle this numerical escalation; can improve with switch to apprentice handling.

National Buck

Major cutback in distance can actually work in his favor as he was involved in a pressurized pace situation in the last 2 efforts; winning training jockey/combination is a definite plus; looks like a very cozy fit following the needed tightener.

Magical Salute

Trounced by National Buck in their last match-up (although he did suffer through a troubled trip) and he has shown no staying power at all up to now; doubt that he can make his inner dirt debut a winning one.

Stonehedge

Beginner was sired by Stonesider who won his only start and 25K (his progeny are 4 for 57 in their initial attempts); the dam won 1 of 6 and 16K; among the winning siblings is 66K earner Sirtori; improved in the latest gate breeze.

Dance I Can

Solid maiden voyage a month ago while favored; her sire won 5 of 18 attempts and 723K while the dam won 8 of 36 and 100K; there are no winning siblings to mention; faces weaker, shorter group here and can be a major force from an expert trainer.

Bob and Jim

Goes back to blinkers after a very wide trip; could be the right value play as he is the only runner in the field with inner dirt track experience; wheels back very quickly and cannot be discounted.

Sand Paper

Poor record up to now; sired by New York bred legend Say Florida Sandy who won a G2 and 2.08 million; the dam won 1 of 3 and 10K; among the wining siblings is 255K earner Good Card; there is much work to do. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Sneaky Freud

Steps back up to this level after beating limited winners on the main track in his first start since Saratoga; sophomore has yet to run as fast as most of these and will need to take a good step forward to get involved in the outcome; have to side against the repeat.

Indy Sea

Drops for the turn back to sprint in his inner track debut after coming up empty late at 8 panels over the local main track; his prior dirt try resulted in his maiden score but don't know that he's going to get a lot of pace in front of him in here; maybe for a share.

Boogie Too

Limited winner steps up for his first off the claim by a barn that excels with this type; he earned a career best number while going 7 panels against winners for the initial time 2 back on this circuit; maybe it was the wide spot that hurt him in his return from the freshening in Kentucky but he'll still need to take a good step forward to factor here.

Much Stronger

First part of the coupling took a good step back while returning from the freshening on the local main track; he's yet to try the inner but the barn moves them forward second back from the break, but the return to sprinting should only help as he drops to this level; contender.

Scherer Magic

Barn's other half ships in from California to make his first local start; gelding hasn't been out since late summer and he wasn't much of a threat in any of his last few cracks out West; would appreciate some pace in front of him as he tackles older foes today.

Joking

Made little impact from the fence after adding shades last month; he ran well over the inner track in his first crack over it early in the year so maybe the turn back in his local return helps, but he'll need to go better than he did in that last one in order to have a shot in this spot.

I'm Wide Awake

Last out runner up in his return to the main track steps up to face better in his first off the claim by an outfit that's won just one race this year; gelding hasn't won in 4 starts on dirt and his recent placing on the main track didn't earn a number that puts him in the mix at this level; maybe he has a little more to offer late at this trip, but have to side with others on the win end.

Whatabouthonor

Outside drawn colt returns for his first of this sharp outfit's claim after tanking at odds on at the level on the main track last month; maybe he's now set to move forward with the figure regression behind him and the price will certainly be better in here; stamina issues are a concern as it's tough to rely on him to pass runners late. - Steve Grabowski

Race 3

Hook Em

Exits his best Beyer-speed figure and race ever when hanging on for the show money at 1 Mile; the cutback to 6F is a plus; the main concern is moving up in class off a loss while the 4F workout for this was not very enticing; the debut winner repeated in an AQU-Grade 2 with a 90 Beyer speed figure.

Killer Crossover

Sire is 51-for-313 with 2-year-old debut runners; is the 1st foal out of a 4-for-17 dam (168K); hard to ignore the trainer's 28% success rate with 1st-time starters; wish the worktab stood out more on this 100K-yearling purchase.

Baratti

Sire is 25-for-198 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2 winners from 4 other foals to race including 56K-earner Beackrock (1-for-6); has been working like a runner for a trainer who also has favored Cavu going here; 11%-success rate 1st-time for the barn suggests we back his uncoupled barnmate.

Cavu

Took serious-betting money for the unveiling now adds blinkers for a 28%-winning 2nd-start trainer; debut-Beyer speed figure represents the field's best number however half the field he is competing against are 1st-time starters; March-230K purchase adds distance after passing runners 1st time out another good sign for the pick.

Jeremy's Song

Sire is 47-for-363 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 13-for-32 Grade 1-stakes-winning dam (786K) who produced 2 winners from 3 other foals to race including 1-for-11 Starship Pegasus (41K); has been working like a runner for a 2%-debut trainer.

Ferlin Husky

Primed for this on turf; his only-dirt start was a last-place debut finish when landing behind the winner and runner-up they Beyered 93-63 in next-out BEL-Grade 1 and CD-MSW victories; the trainer is not known to win with 1sters so willing to excuse his debut; adds 1st Lasix which can only help the cause while reunites with the rider from his unveiling loss. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Campion Lane

Tries claimers for the first time and he has flashed only trivial early speed thus far; can improve with the switch to this new surface and did run into a repeat winner 2 back; nothing special about the most recent training track breeze, however.

King Gettigan

Offspring of Read the Footnotes, a multiple G2 victor who notched 450K, have won their debut at a rate of 10 percent; the dam lost her only race; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Furios Tempo.

Lulu Rocks

Earned a minor share when dropping to the claiming ranks while enduring a difficult journey; his sire, a pure sprinter, won the G1 Carter and 480K: the dam did not race; winning siblings include 349K earner Mystic City.

Gone Country

The combination last month of the blinker addition and drop to this level created a vast improvement in performance when he was a clear-cut second; not much in the way of visible pace opposiiton this afternoon and that will be to his benefit.

Royal Posse

Quit early when attempting a mile for the first time but may not have cared for the muddy footing; his sire won a G2 and 662K while the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 176K earner Ampart Ridge.

Tell It to the Man

Retreated early in recent ventures and tries fourth different rider in as many starts; gets a better slot today but doubt that will make any serious difference; cannot endorse regardless of the soil condition today.

Metropolitan Storm

Another member of this crew who has yet to hit the board; despite breaking alertly in the last pair, it is doubtful that he can shown any improved endurance this afternoon; cannot recommend.

Island Therapy

Blinkers on can make a world of difference for this second-timer; his sire won 1 of 12 and 44K; the dam scored in 13 out of 64 appearances earning 197K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; consider.

Little T. Louie

Ran against better stock last month when caught wide; see the previous runner for same sire information; the dam was without a tally in 5 attempts; among the winning siblings is 367K earner Oedipus O'Neal.

Where's Elliot

Pressed the pace of Gone Country 5 weeks ago before tiring; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.26 million; the dam won 3 of 10 attempts and 103K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; outside slot can prove a burden. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

North Ocean

Gelding ran his eyeballs out in defeat last time and note he was clear for fun; his stalk and pounce style will give him a puncher s chance more often than not; note Belmont finale came back triple live; respect.

Idle American

Been a rough year for this gelding; he was a bit more keen to run early in last and that could be a positive sign; can't be thrilled with the record on the inner and note he has been turf only; would be careful here.

Zivo

One more jump and he gets there last time; bothered early in the only off effort when beaten 7, the last race came back live; the 4th finisher took a $62.5K optional next out, 8th finisher took a FL allowance and 9th finisher won a $25K optional here; the one to beat.

Modern Child

Sprint, sprint, stretch out, win; remember that ploy; a couple of decent drills since the last effort and note place horse was over 3 clear; slight improvement and he should be around the wire once again.

Pass the Tap

Toss the grass races and the form brightens; off a career Beyer when he was coming hard and he got the nod from the stewards; Jacobson tries to strike while the iron is hot and that has been a good ploy for him; primed.

Make Your Move

Darley was named as owner for the last race; former connections thought enough of him to try the stakes three back; runner must prove he can win fresh and he will probably need help on the front end.

Pontus

At least he has the two races to draw from now; bothered early on the cut back and he may have just been over his head; blowout 6 days ago could have him on his toes for this assignment and if he can clear using that :45 and change speed, he just may get brave.

Romancing the Gold

Popped and stopped in last but the race two back was solid considering the bobble; 6th finisher 10/19 won next out at this level in Philly; the 10/19 winner took 2 $100K stakes since; half of his races have been on the inner; these are his friends; interesting.

Holy Invader

Proven in this very league, nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 9 of 19; last race came back ultra live; 2nd and 5th finishers won at this level next out, 6th, 7th and 8th finishers took $16K optional since in Florida next out; gives this Florida interloper a long look. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Joe Alan

Flashed gate speed in his win while the new rider is known to get horses out of the gate fast; more than 7 months since graduating on a sloppy-race track doing the rain dance for this; his debut race over the AQU-Inner Dirt was a troubled trip and career-low Beyer speed figure; trainer is 0-for-3 with long-layoff starters since 2012; view as a pace presence for part.

The Brothers Rap

Superb-long layoff trainer adds to the appeal after wanting no parts of 2 turns pre-rest; his 2-back show finish over today's AQU Inner Dirt surface looks better since the winner repeated with a 77 Beyer speed figure taking an AQU-optional claimer; beat the 3-back runner-up a 25K-maiden-claiming next-out graduate (44).

The Big Deluxe

Claimed off the freshened-up dirt AQU-Main win 30 days ago when posting a career-best Beyer; can he fire back to that huge effort for the new barn?; has worked nicely for this but holds a 4-0-0-0 record on AQU Inner Dirt which is the main concern.

Western Tryst

Solid-win trainer following long layoffs/1st off the claim; being 0-for-4 on dirt is a concern but 2-back on the main track posted a career-best Beyer in a strong event; the runner-up finisher captured his next 3 AQU-optional claimers with 101-94-92 speed figures; late runner needs a pace metldown to win it all but hard to leave off the exotics tickets likely rallying into the number.

Greeley Pack

11 weeks since a troubled-gate break beating 1 runner home; wish the worktab was more eye catching for this; winless on dirt but his last main-track start in June saw him finish 3rd to the winner who repeated with a 78 Beyer taking a SAR-optional claimer; August-turf graduate when defeating the runner-up a 65 Beyer-MSW next-out winner.

Raglin River

30%-winning turf-to-dirt trainer since 2012 adds to the appeal; toss latest and his form since the March claim and switch to grass has been rock solid; his last dirt start saw the runner-up finisher graduate next out in a GP-$12,500-maiden claimer with a 52 Beyer; in February at GP faced the winner who repeated in a GP-20K claimer with a 68 speed figure.

Rocket Hero

Nothing since the career debut win on today's AQU-Inner Dirt oval at the distance of today's event; needed last when badly outrun throughout but it was the 1st start off nearly an 8-month layoff; style suggests that more distance thyan 6F may be needed to see best form.

G W's Hammer

55 days since his 2nd straight double-digit length defeat at long odds; did not finish better than 5th in 3 AQU-Inner Dirt defeats during career; the show runner from last won next out with a 60 Beyer taking an AQU-$12,500 claimer; the 2-back runner-up Beyered 81 in his next-out AQU-OPC triumph; he beat the 3-back runner-up a next-out 72 Beyer BEL-MSW graduate.

Kid Blast

Has done his best running off layoffs so was not surprised he wokeup off the bench in last; 36 days between races can help the cause noting his 2 prior big races over the AQU Inner Dirt; the 2-back show runner Beyered 85 taking a BEL-optional claimer next out; the 3-back show runner posted an 84 beyer in a next-out SAR-OPC victory.

Ludo Bagman

Today's 115-pound assignment is the lightest ever in his career; brief speed chasing the show runner from last who Beyered 76 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming victory; lone-win picture occurred January, 2012, in the mud on the AQU-Inner Dirt graduating in a 50K-maiden-claimer; posted the field's best Beyer May, '12, in a BEL-6F runner-up allowance event.

Meet the Mets

1st-blinkered start in last was a wakeup call and a great sign for a new trainer when chasing the runner-up finisher who Beyered 73 capturing an AQU-16K claimer next out; races 1st time on AQU Inner Dirt while picking up 6 pounds to race with his heaviest assignment since the career debut.

Half Nelson

Seems set for another huge race 3rd time off the more than year layoff; posted a career-best Beyer in last when beating the show runner who Beyered 76 in his next-out AQU-optional-claiming score; lone race over the AQU Inner was a solid runner-up finish facing winners; toss his 2012 SAR race and the career form is rock solid; the pick.

Jack's R Wild

Hard to ignore the poor AQU-Inner Dirt record (6-0-0-1) while his Beyer Top was at a longer distance than this graduting in October over the runner-up finisher who Beyered 92 in his next-out AQU-MSW victory; the 3-back winner and runner-up Beyered 94-83 in next-out wins. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Sliver and Onions

This promising, lightly-raced runner gets a class test on the rise into stakes company, but was csharp in victory in crushing first-level allowance horses Nov. 14 over next-out winner Nevada Kid; also makes his third start off a layoff and is a winner at 1 1/8 miles; contender despite not having raced in a stakes race.

Percussion

Though he has finished behind Don Dulce in his last two matchups, he was just a neck behind him last time and seems to be cycling back to his best; he had a productive spring and appears capable of running even better than he has in his last two; seems to prefer racing on the lead; wonder if he can snag the lead if Spa City Fever is sent; still giving him the narrow edge.

Don Dulce

Jacobson paid a bundle for this gelding - 100K - and his two starts for him have resulted in near misses in stakes; outfinished Perscussion in each of his last two starts, though the latter might only now be cycling back to his best; first or second in 13 of 21 starts on dirt; second selection.

Spa City Fever

Is another tough horse from the Jacobson barn, though he ranks behind Don Dulce; this one has notched three wins for his current stable, which all came in open allowances/optional claimers; might prefer racing one turn - but that's not an option unless you go 6f on the inner track.

Jonesy Boy

Has won three of five, including a second-level allowance off the bench, but his wins have come at Del and Lrl - where the competition is easier than NY; gives the impression of one that should like running 1 1/8 miles, though he has never gone beyond a mile. - Byron King